UFC 134: Rio - Bloody Elbow Staff Predictions
by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 27, 2011 12:24 AM EDT
in UFC Analysis
Email
Print
Date: Saturday, August 27, 2011 at 9 p.m. ET on PPV
Location: HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami
Brent Brookhouse - I’m not the only one who thinks that Okami has looked steadily less impressive since jabbing Linhares’ face off, am I? He has looked less and less effective and done less and less in getting his wins. Also, the memory of Rich Franklin walking back to his corner and saying that Okami really wasn’t that strong is sticking with me. Silva is a better fighter than Okami and I don’t really see any reason he can’t finish him anywhere the fight ends up. Anderson Silva by TKO, round two.
Mike Fagan - This is the sort of fight where every reasonable person has Anderson Silva as a huge favorite and you have a bunch of people asking “Why don’t you give Okami a chance?” and then when Okami wins those latter people are all “SEE! MMA IS SO UNPREDICTABLE!” Anderson is a 5-1 favorite. That gives Okami about a 16% chance of winning. And that’s about right. So there is a chance, it’s small, and the reasons for that can be found by watching their first fight. Anderson Silva by TKO, round three.
Leland Roling - There isn’t anything in Okami’s most recent performances to suggest that he can “Sonnen” his way to victory on Saturday night. His stand-up has improved, but who really believes it will act as a means to winning this fight? Nobody. Okami isn’t a thoroughbred takedown machine either. He’ll have problems pressing Anderson to the ground, and Silva should feast on the openings that Okami gives him at close range. Anderson Silva via KO.
KJ Gould - Okami is being overlooked, as always. Silva is the safe bet but I think Okami has the tools to get the job done. The problem is I don’t see him finishing the fight and in that regard Silva has more tools in his belt. His submission defense is good enough to survive Silva on the ground, and he’s shown an ability to keep a fight grounded using fundamental wrestling technique to do so against other skilled BJJ players. Combine that with training solidly with Chael Sonnen and I think we could see the first UFC belt to go back to Japan. Okami by Decision.
Staff picking Silva: Tim, Fraser, Anton, Leland, Brookhouse, Fagan, Roth
Staff picking Okami: KJ
Mauricio Rua vs. Forrest Griffin
Brent Brookhouse - Round one probably decides the entire fight. If Rua catches Forrest early he can get the stoppage and the win. But if it gets to the second round I don’t see any way that Rua’s cardio is suddenly drastically improved over the previous times we’ve seen him in the Octagon. Add my distrust of Rua’s knee to my concerns about his cardio and you can see why I favor Forrest here. Griffin also is massive for 205 and if he can make Rua carry that weight for any length of time it’s only going to serve to exhaust Shogun. Forrest Griffin by decision.
Mike Fagan - As I’ve said elsewhere, I’m most interested in the storylines here. Is Rua’s knee holding up? Is he in shape? How much does Forrest still want to fight? How close are both these guys to the end of their career? I’m a little surprised that not only did the betting line open at 2-1 for Rua, but that the action has come in steady on him. Disregarding the injury concerns, Forrest is a huge light heavyweight, and we’ve already seen him outwork and outgrapple “Shogun” in the past. Eduardo Alonso and Mauricio are denying the injury reports, but these things always seem to be a case of smoke/fire. Forrest Griffin by decision.
Fraser Coffeen - This one comes almost entirely down to the intangibles, just like it did the last time they fought. For Shogun - is he healthy and in the proper condition? For Forrest - is he motivated and focused? Last time Shogun came in not 100% prepared, but based on interviews, I think this time it’s Forrest who is not fully in the game. Mauricio Rua by TKO
KJ Gould - You’ve got two of the most high profile hit’n’miss fighters in recent years in a rematch. Gah. Shogun had the rust well and truly beaten out of him against Jones and he usually comes back strong after a bad loss. Forrest has been out for a lot longer even if he is a workhorse in the gym. I’ll go Shogun this time around. Rua by TKO.
Staff picking Rua: Tim, Fraser, Leland, KJ.
Staff picking Griffin: Anton, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Brendan Schaub
Brent Brookhouse - I don’t buy that Nogueira is healthy and there is no doubting that Schaub has the more promising future. But I never pick against Nogueira, he is one of the biggest reasons for my being the MMA fan that I am today and as such I will always be an unabashed fanboy when discussing his fights. I’ve seen him pull off wins in more improbable situations than this and I don’t care that his legendary chin has faded, I refuse to accept that Schaub can knock him out. Nogueira, in Brazil, submits the youngster and we all celebrate. Nogueira by submission, round 2.
Mike Fagan - Nogueira subbing Schaub, in his first fight in Brazil and after an 18-month layoff, would be one of the greatest moments in MMA history. If we’re being honest, though, Nogueira hasn’t looked good since his UFC debut against Herring. (And for the final time, diving into a headkick doesn’t outweigh the other 14 minutes Nogueira dominated that fight.) Maybe Nogueira’s healthy, maybe the talk about “rushing back” is a ruse. Seemly unlikely to me. Brendan Schaub by TKO, round one.
Leland Roling - Nogueira has been resurrected from the dead. I don’t know the details, but I’m assuming an entire cemetery was exhumed to fix his broken body. What a total waste of time. It still won’t fix the fact that he hasn’t fought in over a year-and-a-half, and Schaub has polished his skills by beating on mediocre talent. I’ll still take the latter over an aging legend who doesn’t have much left in the tank. Brendan Schaub via TKO.
Anton Tabuena - The doctors said it couldn’t be done, but Big Nog still rushed his recovery just so he can fight in Rio. Even if his injuries that required multiple surgeries have healed 100%, which is pretty doubtful already, will he be the same fighter? Will he still have the same conditioning, timing, and movement? I really doubt it. Big Nog is the oldest 35-year-old in the world, and I think Schaub will make him look bad. Brendan Schaub by TKO.
Staff picking Nogueira: Tim, Brent
Staff picking Schaub: Fraser, Anton, Leland, Fagan, Roth
Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza
Brent Brookhouse - Pearson is a live dog here, but he lacks the explosive ability of Barboza. I don’t see Ross being able to win enough of the fight to take a decision and I don’t think he has the stopping power to win in a shootout. Edson Barboza by TKO, round three.
Mike Fagan - Pearson’s one of the few Brits that I think have staying power in the UFC. Barboza’s better enough in all areas though. Edson Barboza by decision.
Leland Roling - Pearson isn’t quite dynamic enough to keep up with Barboza on the feet. His tedious style will open up as Barboza’s diverse repertoire of attacks does damage, and that will cause Pearson to get wild as he attempts to catch up on the scorecards. Edson Barboza via TKO.
Fraser Coffeen - Pearson will make this a competitive fight, but Barboza’s striking is just on a different level. Expect to see his full arsenal here, hopefully in a showing that turns some heads. Edson Barboza via TKO
Staff picking Pearson: KJ
Staff picking Barboza: Tim, Fraser, Anton, Leland, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Luiz Cane vs. Stanislav Nedkov
Brent Brookhouse - I can absolutely see Nedkov working takedowns and grinding out a win here, but I just think Cane blasts him on the feet very early and ends it before he has the chance to get inside. I hope I’m right because a slow grinding top game win from Nedkov is going to upset the crowd. Luiz Cane by TKO, round one.
Mike Fagan - Stanislav Nedkov is right handed. Luiz Cane by TKO, round two.
Leland Roling - Nedkov has the striking game of a drunken bar patron on a Friday night, but his relentless wrestling ability is enough to stifle Cane. If Cane’s go-for-broke aggression on the feet doesn’t end Nedkov’s night instantly, Nedkov will pummel right through his takedown defense and grind his way to victory. Stanislav Nedkov via decision.
Fraser Coffeen - I’m torn here, because I like Nedkov’s ground game, but I have trouble getting past that year-plus lay off for him. But still, he should be able to drag Cane down and grind it out. Stanislav Nedkov by Decision
Staff picking Cane: Tim, Anton, KJ, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Staff picking Nedkov: Leland, Fraser
Thiago Tavares vs. Spencer Fisher
Brent Brookhouse - Tavares is too strong for Fisher to beat as long as Thiago decides to do the smart thing and work for takedowns. Tavares should be able to spend at least two rounds on top landing enough punches to get the win. Thiago Tavares by decision.
Mike Fagan - Pink slip on a pole match. Fisher’s going to do that thing where he avoids takedowns and throws punches. There’s some rhyme for it... Spencer Fisher by decision.
Leland Roling - I’m not high on either fighter. If Tavares were smart though, he’d dive for takedowns at will and hope he can keep Fisher down for the count. Fisher will put up a tremendous fight, but I think he’ll inevitably tire from the constant pressure Tavares will put him under on the floor. Thiago Tavares via decision.
KJ Gould - Tavares strikes me as becoming the David Terrell of his division, if he’s not already; early career promise that’s fizzled out and probably won’t return. Fisher is too experienced and too tough to let Tavares get away with any mistakes especially on the feet. Fisher by Decision.
Staff picking Tavares: Tim, Fraser, Leland, Brookhouse, Roth
Staff picking Fisher: KJ, Fagan, Anton
Rousimar Palhares vs. Dan Miller
Brent Brookhouse - Miller is tough, but toughness usually isn’t enough to win fights against guys who are better than you. Rousimar Palhares by submission, round one.
Mike Fagan - I love watching the Miller brothers, but this is not a great fight for Dan. He’s too willing to spend time on his back, and that’s a bad habit with a guy like Palhares. Rousimar Palhares by decision.
Leland Roling - Dan Miller isn’t his brother Jim. He finds himself in precarious positions on the ground, and Rousimar Palhares is not the man you want to be with on the ground. He’s well known for his leglocks, but Palhares is a complete grappler. He’ll school Dan Miller in this contest. Rousimar Palhares via submission.
Tim Burke - This one is so hard to pick. Both of these guys are amongst my favorite fighters and have been through so much. Miller is tough as nails and good in all areas, but he’s not going to be able to manhandle a tree stump. He will survive to the final bell though, with both legs firmly in place. Rousimar Palhares by decision.
Staff picking Palhares: Tim, Fraser, Anton, Leland, Fagan, Brookhouse
Staff picking Miller: Roth
Paulo Thiago vs. David Mitchell
Brent Brookhouse - If David Mitchell wins, I’ll be shocked. Paulo Thiago by TKO.
Mike Fagan - Gimme fight to get Thiago in Brazil and back on track. Paulo Thiago by decision.
Anton Tabuena - David Mitchell isn’t Jon Fitch, Diego Sanchez, or Martin Kampmann. Paulo Thiago via Brasil.
KJ Gould - Thiago has heavy hands and bad intentions. He also has a really good ground game, and you can tell just by looking at his Sam The Eagle face nothing could ever faze him. He’s just more talented and experienced than Mitchell, it’s as simple as that. Thiago by full on armed tactical response TKO.
Staff picking Thiago: Tim, Fraser, Anton, Leland, KJ, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Staff picking Mitchell:
Raphael Assuncao vs. Johnny Eduardo
Brent Brookhouse - Eduardo shouldn’t be a problem for Assuncao here. Raphael Assuncao by submission, round one.
Mike Fagan - Hm. There sure are a lot of Brazilians on this card. Raphael Assuncao by submission, round two.
Tim Burke - I will continue to be a card-carrying member of the Raphael Assuncao fan club as long as he’s still in the UFC. Yes, he got knocked out by Erik Koch, but that surprised nearly everyone. Eduardo’s been around forever, but this fight is taylor-made for Assuncao to debut at bantamweight in fine fashion. Raphael Assuncao by submission.
Staff picking Assuncao: Tim, Anton, Leland, Fraser, Gould, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Staff picking Eduardo:
Erick Silva vs. Luis Ramos
Mike Fagan - Ramos is on short notice. Silva has a more impressive record. Erick Silva by decision.
Leland Roling - Late notice for Ramos, and Erick Silva is stylistically better. Look for Silva to methodically break down Ramos’ defenses on the feet before finishing late. Erick Silva via submission.
Anton Tabuena - Brasil! Brasil! ...Oh wait, they’re both Brazilians? Hmm... Seriously though, Erick Silva is just better. Period. Erick Silva by a dominant Decision.
KJ Gould - Not all Silvas are created equally. But this one is still pretty good. Full training camp plus more active versus late notice replacement? You know the drill. Silva by Decision.
Staff picking Silva: Tim, Anton, Leland, Fraser, KJ, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Staff picking Ramos:
Yuri Alcantara vs. Felipe Arantes
Brent Brookhouse - The guys below me really nailed it. In this kind of situation, you pick the better fighter. Yuri Alcantara by TKO, round two.
Mike Fagan - Arantes Fight Finder profiles has pictures of him in a cowboy hat and grappling pants, two pieces of MMA fashion that I cannot and will not stand for. Yuri Alcantara by decision.
Leland Roling - Alcantara has fought much tougher competition over the course of his career, and he’s finished most of that opposition impressively. Yuri Alcantara via submission.
Anton Tabuena - Again, it all boils down to who has looked impressive against much better competition. Yuri Alcantara by TKO.
Staff picking Alcantara: Tim, Anton, Leland, Fraser, KJ, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Staff picking Arantes:
Yves Jabouin vs. Ian Loveland
Brent Brookhouse - Something smells funny when I see pretty much everyone picking against the -200 favorite. But I’ll follow the pack. Yves Jabouin by decision.
Mike Fagan - This seems like some sort of punchline. Every fight on the card involves a Brazilian, except this one. Why do you take this away from us, Dana White? Yves Jabouin by decision.
Tim Burke - Loveland is the favorite here, but I’m not quite sure why. Jabouin has a fierce striking game and it should be even better at bantamweight. Loveland is more than the sum of his parts, but his wrestling isn’t good enough to take over this fight. Loveland is super tough to knock out though. Yves Jabouin by decision.
KJ Gould - This is a clear sign of matchmaking and card booking to warm the crowd up from the first fight onwards, and for that we should thank Loveland for sacrificing himself against Jabouin for our visceral delight. Jabouin by TKO.
Staff picking Jabouin: Tim, Leland, Fraser, Gould, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Staff picking Loveland: Anton
118 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
no one picking silva by boring UD?
i’m praying for a good fight (since i’m buying it) but i’m a little worried. okami is a very cautious fighter. i really don’t want to get burned again.
I think Okami will push forward too much to allow Silva to do the dance thing.
Managing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 26, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
anderson silva is the greatest ever
okami has won an impressive amount of fights unimpressively
this ones a lock
"I have smoked weed with alot of UFC champions" - Joe Rogan
"Você ta fudido. Se vai levar muita porrada, ta ligado?" - Anderson Silva
Tell that to KJ
"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world."
- Jack Layton
Standings
Leland 105-55
Fagan 103-58
Anton 97-44
Brent 95-55
Bishop 77-40
KJ 63-30
Fraser 47-23
Tim 14-8
Roth 13-9
"You are a miserable human being." - Mike Fagan
My twitter: @TB_Money
Winning percentage
Anton .688
KJ .677
Fraser .671
Bishop .658
Leland .656
Fagan .640
Brent .633
"You are a miserable human being." - Mike Fagan
My twitter: @TB_Money
I’m kind of surprised how close the percentages are. I wish I knew what everyone’s success rate was when picking the dog.
by Damnatio Memoriae on Aug 26, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I really messed up on the last event,
and it dropped me below .70 this time. Grr.
by Anton Tabuena on Aug 27, 2011 5:38 AM EDT up reply actions
HA! From like 3rd to last! I’M IN IT TO WIN IT!
Managing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 26, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
So if you eat, breathe, and write about the sport, you can hope to be 18% more accurate than a coinflip? Given the number of lopsided and relatively safe calls there are in this sport (Toney loses to Couture, Couture loses to Machida, whoever loses to GSP), is it possible they are actually worse than a coinflip?
It would be interesting to see the win % of fights where there the betting odds are very tight to see what the % of correct guesses goes when it’s not a blow out.
"an excellent example of why most MMA "journalism" is a joke. Pseudonyms like "toxic" and shitty writing like that dopey article"--- Joe Rogan.
ignorance is bliss
Let the fighters fight, let the referees ref, but dear God, don't let the judges judge.
by halitosis on Aug 26, 2011 5:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t know why everyone goes gaga over these things. The very best — and I’m talking elite, Anderson-level here — gamblers are picking 60% winners against the betting lines. I’d wager if you looked around the MMA media world, you’d find the mean pick percentage somewhere around 65%.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
by Mike Fagan on Aug 26, 2011 5:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Is that win rate somehow compared against the betting line, or just raw win/loss picks?
It just seems like a raw 66% pick rate is awfully low when so many fights are strongly weighted to one fight or the other.
"an excellent example of why most MMA "journalism" is a joke. Pseudonyms like "toxic" and shitty writing like that dopey article"--- Joe Rogan.
Dude, the UFC puts on super close fights all the time. Add in prelims and it’s really fuckin difficult.
"I have reached an age when, if someone tells me to wear socks, I don't have to."- Albert Einstein
by Tim Bernier on Aug 26, 2011 10:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
60%, again, is the VERY ELITE gambler against the spread.
“It just seems like a raw 66% pick rate is awfully low when so many fights are strongly weighted to one fight or the other.”
And sometimes the guys who are strongly weighted to win…lose.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
Screw the "who's gonna win" stuff. Talk betting.
The only real reason to care who’s going to win in MMA is if you’re putting money on the fight. I think the staff predictions would be more interesting if they were each given an imaginary $1,000 and told to imaginary-bet it. Someone will emerge as the god of wagering. I realize the BE/Mania betting game is simply fascinating, but if the staff picks mean anything let’s see how they translate to profit and loss.
.....
Get on board the Jake Train® . Next stop: Fight Night 25® Winner's Circle!
by Scabby Knuckle on Aug 26, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
My staff picks translate badly to actual betting. I bet nearly every single MMA event I can. I look for value greatly. Last Bellator card was great. Petruzelli-Curran parlay paid my mortgage this month.
Staff Writer, BloodyElbow.com, Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 26, 2011 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You need to start an MMA betting feature
:p - orcus
Most of the time I am a rather quiet fellow, who likes to read about Philosophy, Mathematics and History, but like most people I also have a deep appreciation of sex and violence... - John Danaher
They used to have a regular one here
But I find MMA betting is less about picking winners and losers and more about identifying and exploiting bizarre lines, something that’s becoming less common as the sport continues to grow in prominence.
"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world."
- Jack Layton
no doubt
Id like a feature where Leland goes into his thought process on his bets
:p - orcus
Most of the time I am a rather quiet fellow, who likes to read about Philosophy, Mathematics and History, but like most people I also have a deep appreciation of sex and violence... - John Danaher
by Chris Hall on Aug 26, 2011 8:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think he did that for one of the recent cards, like in the past month or two. Pretty sure it was him. He gave examples of about five different betting picks, including, if I recall correctly, a parlay. I’ll have to go back and see if I can find it. Maybe someone has the link handy?
.....
Get on board the Jake Train® . Next stop: Fight Night 25® Winner's Circle!
by Scabby Knuckle on Aug 26, 2011 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh, I don’t remember anything like that recently
:p - orcus
Most of the time I am a rather quiet fellow, who likes to read about Philosophy, Mathematics and History, but like most people I also have a deep appreciation of sex and violence... - John Danaher
by Chris Hall on Aug 26, 2011 9:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Leland beat me to it. Fagan does “Gambling Spotlights” every now and then, such as for UFC 132 or UFC 130.
.....
Get on board the Jake Train® . Next stop: Fight Night 25® Winner's Circle!
by Scabby Knuckle on Aug 26, 2011 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
My thought process doesn’t follow any system. Fagan has written in-depth stuff pertaining to systems and percentages. I basically gamble with my gut, and surprisingly — I win 65 to 70% of the time and haven’t gone negative since I started a long time ago.
I’ve made bad beats though, but I normally try to hedge underdog value bets with sure fire winners. If I’m uncomfortable with finding a surefire winner, I’ll bet small on underdogs and hope for the best.
Staff Writer, BloodyElbow.com, Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 26, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Awesome. What site do you net through?
:p - orcus
Most of the time I am a rather quiet fellow, who likes to read about Philosophy, Mathematics and History, but like most people I also have a deep appreciation of sex and violence... - John Danaher
by Chris Hall on Aug 26, 2011 9:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
*bet
Fucking mobile fail.
I’ve been thinking about putting my first bet in, but Im hesitant. Could have made something on miller/Bendo.
:p - orcus
Most of the time I am a rather quiet fellow, who likes to read about Philosophy, Mathematics and History, but like most people I also have a deep appreciation of sex and violence... - John Danaher
by Chris Hall on Aug 26, 2011 9:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Or this instead:
Maybe just as good would be a feature before each fight card where they interview an oddsmaker and ask how they set the lines for a given card. Not just how they chose the favorite but how they decided on an opening line. Heck, I’d be happy with a story like that even once or twice a year. Of course, good luck getting a guy who sets the odds to tell you the truth about why a fighter is a -220 favorite….
.....
Get on board the Jake Train® . Next stop: Fight Night 25® Winner's Circle!
by Scabby Knuckle on Aug 26, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
green it, britches.
http://fightdrinker.blogspot.com
by some schmuck in texas on Aug 26, 2011 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s all about finding value, that’s it. And if you’re winning more than 60% of your bets, you’re missing value in the long run.
Also…real in-depth gambling features are a lot of work, a lot of words, and not much payoff for the site. Not to mention giving money away for free. The short-form stuff I’ve done the last few cards is a reaction to that.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
I like the props stuff
And I agree on value. The way I gamble I take that to a bit of an extreme. When gambling on MMA my philosophy is simple, identify significant underdogs with a clear path to victory.
"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world."
- Jack Layton
"Combine that with training solidly with Chael Sonnen"
I really don’t see how this is one of the big reasons Okami could win the fight. X fighter has been training hard with Y fighter in Z aspect of the sport so he could pose problems for XX fighter.
Carlos Condit has been training with the best wrestler in the UFC but that hasn’t stopped him from getting taken down easily by Stun Gun and Rory Mac.
If Okami is going to win this he’ll have to do it in the most safe way possible, and since every round starts on the feet and Anderson isn’t some sort of fighter who can be taken down at will, someone is going to the hospital for a severe concussion.
I went whale watching the other day. I think. There were a lot of people in that lake.
DHK and Rory Mac never fought GSP. Sonnen fought Anderson.
"You are a miserable human being." - Mike Fagan
My twitter: @TB_Money
It's still not very good reasoning
Okami can be as strong as he wants but he doesn’t have Sonnen’s fast and strong takedowns and honestly Okami is just slow in general.
There’s also the other side of the story, there’s no way Anderson Silva is just going to ignore wrestling drills for several months.
I went whale watching the other day. I think. There were a lot of people in that lake.
My Rousimar Palhares pick is based on you being from New Jersey.
"You are a miserable human being." - Mike Fagan
My twitter: @TB_Money
by Tim Burke on Aug 26, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 14 recs
This South Park gif is based on
YOUR CANADIAN FACE!
Learn JiuJitsu.
Always looking for that new danger.
by RolloTomasi on Aug 26, 2011 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Curious.... Was your Henderson/Miller pick based on that as well?
The staff predictions on the Henderson/Miller fight were as follows:
Staff picking Miller: Anton, Fraser, Roth, Tim, Fagan, Gould, Leland, Brookhouse
Staff picking Henderson:
by lettuce turnip and pea on Aug 26, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
That was an impressive win.
I’m now officially on the Bendo bandwagon.
Fight on you crazy Jeezuz freak.
Learn JiuJitsu.
Always looking for that new danger.
by RolloTomasi on Aug 26, 2011 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I need a ticket for that train as well.
:p - orcus
Most of the time I am a rather quiet fellow, who likes to read about Philosophy, Mathematics and History, but like most people I also have a deep appreciation of sex and violence... - John Danaher
by Chris Hall on Aug 26, 2011 11:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What a thorough breakdown of the Cane/Nedkov Fagan.
And I agree!
" Its like when I'm right I'm right, when I'm wrong I coulda been right, so I'm still right cause I coulda been wrong, you know, and I'm sorry cause I could be wrong right now, I could be wrong, but I'm right..." Bama
I picked Schaub and Palhares btw
Bloody Elbow Grappling Editor.
Follow me on Twitter @KJGould
Like me on Facebook
Silva via TKO: I see no possible way Okami can win. Yeah, Sonnen wrote the blueprint on how to beat Silva, but Okami isn’t Sonnen. Plus, he’s probably fighting a 100% healthy Spider. Heck, even if he wasn’t completely healthy, he could beat Okami.
Shogun via KO: This is more of a wish and a hope. I really hope Shogun is healthy and his Cardio is up. Or else he’ll get beat again.
Nog via sub: Again, another wish and a hope, but I gotta side with team Brazil here. Chances are Schaub TKO’s him, but I think Nog will be empowered by the crowd.
Barboza by decision. Pearson is way overrated.
Cane by decision. Just because.
I think Pearson is actually underrated
Very solid boxing and very technical. His biggest problem is he’s a British fighter, and apparently only all of their power went to Paul Daley.
Barboza could probably stomp him.
I went whale watching the other day. I think. There were a lot of people in that lake.
and apparently only all of their power went to Paul Daley
ha! funny.
by pud333 on Aug 26, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Peason is very good, but getting blasted by Cole Miller understandably put a stop to that hypetrain.
The problem for him in this fight is that Pearson’s main weapon is his kickboxing, and in my opinion Barboza is way better than him at that. So I think Barboza will stomp him, TKO round 2 is my pick.
by Horselover Fat on Aug 26, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I really think the Miller fight was just an off night for Pearson. He just didnt perform to his usual standard IMO
by schm1583 on Aug 26, 2011 6:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Pearson arguably won the first round
But once he got caught Miller had it won all the way
I went whale watching the other day. I think. There were a lot of people in that lake.
Everyone gets an off night
Yeah he lost that Miller fight but he also holds a win over Siver so there’s that.
"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world."
- Jack Layton
Same here
Its kind of funny that everyone gives Fisher lots of praise further down the card after dropping to Pearson. Plus the Real Deal likes to travel around a lot and do different camps, so I think he is doing all the right things to maximize his potential.
Head conductor of the Charles Oliveira hype train.
made me lol
Mark Hunt's Special Move: Oceanic Heritage! Years ago someone told Polynesian DNA that everyone was surrounded by sea monsters and it believed them. It made humans that were immune to head injuries, fast enough to run on the highway, and big enough to use the carpool lane. Putting two of them in the same ring is like telling your local tectonic plates to fuck themselves.
"I said ‘let me tell you, you’re one punch away from being worth zero’ and I was wrong, he was one triangle choke away from being worth zero." - Dana on Fedor
by Kevin Jennison J. Zametov-St Pierre on Aug 26, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
If Nog is smart he gets this on the ground as soon as possible and starts doing his work
I think he’s going to lose but I won’t count him out either.
I went whale watching the other day. I think. There were a lot of people in that lake.
Yes, this might work. He’ll bait him to the ground with his patented “eat a huge right hand and fall down like he’s done” technique. Schaub is liable to be overanxious and dive right into his guard.
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Aug 26, 2011 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I was hoping for Nog.
Then he showed up fat. He’s clearly not 100%. Schaub is gonna hurt him I think.
nog better pull guard and pull guard fast
here to hoping Schaub gets antsy and jumps into Nog’s guard
I know it´s been like this for the last 3 or 4 events and that there´s some sort of technical reason for it
But I miss the whole BE staff predictions. You guys always did a great job.
I hate how everybody is basically already making excuses for Shogun by saying that if he loses to Forrest again its because of his nagging injuries/bad cardio.
I hate that people get all pissy about explaining a loss by labeling it as an “excuse.”
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
by Mike Fagan on Aug 26, 2011 5:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
this really bugs me too.
"Many have the will to win. Few have to will to prepare to win."
" A black belt only covers 2 inches of your ass. The rest is up to you." - Royce Gracie
"Wanderlei eventually got to his feet and stalked Fujita like a Japanese octopus in an all-female prison." - Sean Baby Cracked.com
by the-gentle-way on Aug 26, 2011 9:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think the reason Yushin has apparently looked 'worse' since the Linhares fight is
He is confident in his stirkes, moreso then usual, but hesitant to throw when he has to worry about being taken down. Munoz and Marquardt are pretty big takedown threats, so Okami was more hesitant to throw stuff, I think.
I don’t think he has to worry about Silva shooting on him, so he’ll be more open to throw.
But at the same time striking is the aspect where Silva is much much better then Okami…so who knows.
Maybe he’ll do like Chael, mix strikes and takedowns…only he won’t be so fast and blitzing about it.
PACIFIC RIM
in theaters
July 12th, 2013
Okami/Silva
Will be decided in the clinch. If Okami can out-muscle Silva up close, he has a good chance of pulling a UD. Most likely, though, Silva knees the life out of Japan’s Last Great Hope.
I dont understand
Everyone is ignoring the weigh-ins and Nog being a chunkster! He’s the heaviest he’s ever been at a weigh-in – a flabby 247. Combine this with rushing back from surgery and I think he’s got zero chance. I was on the bandwagon until I saw him today and now I think there’s no chance.
We write these before the weigh-ins.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
by Mike Fagan on Aug 26, 2011 5:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
"orrest has been out for a lot longer even if he is a workhorse in the gym."
Bro he was out for one month longer than Rua. That constitutes as a lot ? Or did you forget above the franklin fight.
by Mantis xX on Aug 26, 2011 5:26 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Sonnen posses the ability to be able to not have to set up his shots with boxing, and can still take you down from far away. Okami doesnt have the athleticism to do that. I like Okami, I think he’s a bit underrated, but he’s got nothing for Silva. Especially a Silva whos a better wrestler and more patient striker than the one he fought before. Okami is going to get KO’d.
Twitter: @ProfessorBLove
MMA Blog: NothingElseMMAtters.wordpress.com
Stop by and say hi lol
Picking Okami=
YOU HAVEN’T SEEN THIS BEFORE
Favorite League of Legends characers:
Amumu
Malphite
Singed
Teemo
Nunu
Exactly what I was thinking
he just HAD TO GO and pick Okami, because he’s way to cool to actually accept the fact that we all think alike. No, he has to think different. probably has an macbook pro and iPhone 4. And he wrote that on iPad2
I don't have any apple products.
Bloody Elbow Grappling Editor.
Follow me on Twitter @KJGould
Like me on Facebook
by KJ Gould on Aug 26, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Because apple is overpriced garbage.
Learn JiuJitsu.
Always looking for that new danger.
by RolloTomasi on Aug 26, 2011 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Garbage is too strong a word. It’s quality stuff, just too expensive.
by Sqwibbs on Aug 26, 2011 11:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Every Ipod I've ever had broke.
Learn JiuJitsu.
Always looking for that new danger.
by RolloTomasi on Aug 26, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I think one of the unanimous picks is gonna make you all look bad. Don’t know which one because I’m guessing there too.
We don’t care.
Staff Writer, BloodyElbow.com, Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 26, 2011 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
You’re a Irish Monk?
http://fightdrinker.blogspot.com
by some schmuck in texas on Aug 26, 2011 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he secretly cares. Staff aren’t allowed to exhibit emotions (except that one guy who gets all drunked up before the fights and then joins in the live blog comments and acts like he’s offended and irritated by everyone ….no names….I think you know who I mean…)
.....
Get on board the Jake Train® . Next stop: Fight Night 25® Winner's Circle!
by Scabby Knuckle on Aug 26, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
KJ's picks
are definitely the most interesting what if scenarios, sort of like those xmen what if they didnt have mutant powers issues
then they wouldnt be X-Men,
Mojojojo
by Mantis xX on Aug 26, 2011 11:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Can't really blame the staff for their predictions when it concerns huge underdogs.
If you’re supposed to go with just who you “think” should win, obviously it’s going to be the 5:1 favorite everytime. I like the picks that say the favorite should win but they pick the underdog anyway and give good reasoning.
Personally I see value on the Okami bet, because I see he has a clear path to victory by grappling with Anderson. That’s a lot more than I can say for other 5:1 underdogs. I have almost always found it a bad idea to bet against the guy with better MMA wrestling (Unless I think the other guy has good enough TDD or can get back up like Condit does. ). I’m not saying Okami should be the favorite on the betting line by any means. I just bet on the lines I find strange. (Normally I bet on every fight because I’m a gambling addict, the fights who I have no fuckin’ clue who will win I just lay 20 on because I feel like it, and then the fights that I actually see something in, I lay a few hundred on. (I put a few hundred lately on Condit, because I thought Rory and Ellenberger were far, far, more proven wrestlers. Hyun was able to grapplefuck Amir Saddollah, Nate Diaz, and Matt Brown, those guys have never shown very good TDD. I also made a big bet on Griggs, because Valentijn does not have a very good record and he hasn’t fought exactly the most elite of fighters. Plus Griggs has made me big money on Lashley and that kickboxer dude who was supposed to kick his ass too. I’m not always right tho, I put a hundred on Werdum when he fought Overeem at some crazy odds as well (Didn’t need to bet more to win a good amount for me). I honestly thought he might have had the better striking, I made a post about it before the fight. While no one agreed with me then, a lot of people seem to agree after the fight. I started betting chump change with about 50 bucks a couple years ago after following a lot of MMA, I’m now up a couple grand.
Right now, I kind of find all of the lines way too much in Brazil’s favor. I guess Brazilians like to bet on MMA. Since I have been doing good I decided to ramp up the bets this time around. Now if you’re on the fence about who to bet on, I’m not telling you to bet on Okami or Griffin or any of the other crazy underdogs on this card, I don’t want any of the responsibility should they lose, plus I don’t have a blog to promote in case I do win, so there’s no point. So don’t bet based on any of my analysis. The only credit I like is the kind I receive in my bookie accounts.
If you’re looking to bet anyway though, Bodog seems to be the best place that accepts U.S. players for plays on the underdogs. Certainly for Griffin and Okami. If you’re looking for the other side of the line, 5Dimes is awesome, they sometimes have reduced juice for MMA right before the fights too. (Actually the reduced lines are up now, and they have pretty awesome odds for both sides.) I would definitely recommend them since Football season approaching and they have reduced juice for that as well. You won’t be able to get a bonus for them though… Good luck any gamblers.
Interesting approach to betting… but you thought Werdum had better striking than Overeem? People agreed with you after the fight because it was a sub-par performance on the feet from a tentative Reem and MMA fans have very short memories. In a pure striking match Overeem would eat him alive.
"He's like Elvis in Korea! They love him there." - Mike Goldberg on Denis Kang
I watched all of Overeems fights in K-1
Because I bet on them. In K-1 he doesn’t look half as impressive as he does when he instantaneously KO’ed guys in Dream. He looked rigid and relied on his power. I remember one fight instead of beating his opponent with crisp striking he just overpowered his opponent over and over by throwing them to the ground, which I found comical.
Allistair was 5-4 in kickboxing before he had a good run to improve to 10-4 and IMO had the luck to win the title by not having to fight Bonjasky or Hari . Not to discount Allistairs kickboxing abilities, obviously he can beat either on any given night and have a very good chance at doing that, but I don’t think he’s a striking god. He looked gassed and “Statuesque” in a lot of his K-1 fights. I think people give way too much credit to him holding the K-1 title. Mark Hunt was a K-1 title holder as well, I have my doubts about his standing. Cro-cop, although not a K-1 title holder, was a K-1 fighter and arguably had better MMA standup than Mark Hunt since he beat him and landed that crazy kick that Hunt didn’t get KO’ed by, we all know how Cro-cop looks lately…
Mmm, don’t misunderstand me though, if the odds were even I would not have bet on Werdum. Did I really think Werdum was goign to school him stand-up? Of course not, but I thought there was enough doubt, especially since Werdum looked good against Bigfoot. And although I had doubts he could take Bigfoot down, I thought there was value in his BJJ too. I forget the odds, but at +300 I liked the bet.
by GorillaHobo on Aug 27, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t disagree with the bet, just the assertion that Werdum’s striking is better than Reem’s. It would be fair to say “I think Werdum will win the striking in an MMA fight” but I think overall, on the feet Overeem is at a higher level than Werdum.
Perhaps he’s not actually the best HW striker in the world, but Overeem earned that GP win. Plus he already had wins over Badr Hari and a healthy Peter Aerts. Give the man’s K-1 accomplishments some respect. Your point about Crocop (and Hunt) is very silly and irrelevant.
"He's like Elvis in Korea! They love him there." - Mike Goldberg on Denis Kang
I think my point about Hunt holding a K-1 title is relevant because that’s the number one thing I hear when people talk about Overeem’s striking credentials. We have to remember that Overeem (although he had a 2-3 before MMA I think?) he came over to K-1 from MMA. In his 2nd match back he KO’ed Hari. Personally I do not put so much weight in the K-1 title, I saw Overeem before he fought in K-1, he’s an MMA fighter more than anything else to me. The fact that Overeem did so well in K-1, sort of proves that MMA striking is not that far behind K-1 striking. Overeem is more an MMA fighter in my mind than anything else. And now people are saying he’s so great from K-1, so it’s very weird to me.
I guess since I see Overeem as an MMA fighter, him winning the K-1 title, said to me, MMA striking is a lot more advanced to me than K-1. In addition to that, I spinned the other shit about Werdum and how he looked in K-1 (IMO not that impressive compared to what I saw in MMA), to bet on Werdum.
I was referring more specifically to discrediting Hunt because he lost to Crocop, because there’s no shame in that.
It’s a valid point that winning the K-1 World GP doesn’t necessarily mean you’re one of the best in the world. The one exception seems to be Mark Hunt, and circumstances lead to his win. However, you have to look no further than Overeem’s record to see he’s one of the best. He had a pretty easy run through the GP, but the way it’s set up leads to that shit and Reem avoiding injury is as much about skill and intelligence as luck.
"He's like Elvis in Korea! They love him there." - Mike Goldberg on Denis Kang
Ah you know what, he actually won vs Cro Cop. I’m a dumbass. I think I just remember the head kick… but the same argument stands. That being a K-1 fighter (or a champion) doesn’t necessarily make your stand up… invincible, is what I’m trying to say. All of the K-1 fighters have several losses, K-1 fighters lose all the time to MMA fighters striking. (It’s funny I can use Overeem for both sides of the argument.)
So, I don’t think Overeem was invulnerable to Werdum’s stand-up. I wish Werdum wouldn’t have flopped his butt so to see if this was true, but I guess we kind of saw it… I would have much rather have seen Werdum got his ass kicked standing. When you bet, nothing pisses you off more than a fighter with a dumb gameplan :).
I was even going to look up the result of that fight before replying, I had a hunch but I just took your word for it, lol.
You can say MMA isn’t far behind K-1 in terms of striking ability, but that statement is so unspecific that it’s empty. Obviously the level of striking in a low-level or mid-level K-1 match is much higher than that in an MMA fight at the same level. If we’re comparing the striking of top-level MMA heavyweights to top-level K-1 heavyweights, then you have a point, there isn’t a giant chasm in the skill levels.
"He's like Elvis in Korea! They love him there." - Mike Goldberg on Denis Kang
Yes, whole heartedly agree with that statement about low level and high level striking.
With Hunt, well with the 5-6 losses in a row it’s hard to remember when he had any quality wins, don’t blame me :). Cro Cop was such a beast back in the day too. Man, seeing where he is now… I remember when he went to the UFC I was as confident in him winning as GSP is now.
Pretty much agree with your analysis on the K-1 GP. K-1 boggles my mind because of that and because all of the fighters have losses in the double digits (or close, I’m not a hardcore K-1 fan by any means, I just started watching a couple years ago, and anything I caught on ESPN.). It’s like there’s no clear cut best of the best, there’s just like the elite group who lose to eachother and beat the other guys most of the time. Allistair seems to belong in the elite group. Hunt has some good wins too.
I think at some point early in the fight Silva is going to unload and Okami will decide it’s enough just to survive. Afterward Silva will probably slow down a bit and cruise to a five round UD. I doubt he will replicate the Maia performance in front of the Brazilian crowd so I expect awesome fireworks and possibly a finish in the first 10.
I urge everyone not to pick or bet on Okami. There will be moments where he’s standing in front of Anderson doing nothing and that’s a recipe for disaster. He lacks the insane pressure Sonnen has, and doesn’t have the athleticism to go get it. This has more chance of resembling the Hendo fight than the Chael fight.
Noguiera will perform poorly and get knocked out.
And whomever first said Rua will win in the first round or not at all probably hit the nail on the head. I see Forrest using a gameplan similar to his last fight with Rich Franklin. He’ll get an early takedown and wear Shogun out with a round of top control – and put him back on the mat if he expends energy getting up – then coast to a victory with the next two rounds kept mostly on the feet.
I’m going to be cheering loudly for Shogun and Nog, though. In fact I change my pick to Shogun by first round TKO. He needs me to believe in him. However I’m still picking Schaub. My faith isn’t going to keep Big Nog from getting starched.
"He's like Elvis in Korea! They love him there." - Mike Goldberg on Denis Kang
Thing's don't look good for Big Nog.
I’d make a moderate play on Schaub but I don’t want to root against Big Nog. I hate betting big on favorites, when you lose on them, it feels a lot worse. I get much more value out of picking out the underdogs who have a good chance of winning. Hell, I think Okami has a better chance than Big Nog.
I’m hoping Forrest uses his wrestling. Shogun has had some good value in his bets, especially against Machida and Liddell, but with Griffin at +210, I gotta take Griffin. I pretty much view this as a coin flip too, so when the odds are 3-1 for someone, gotta take the underdog.
by GorillaHobo on Aug 27, 2011 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Griffin is a great bet. If you bet big on Schaub as the favorite and lose, the upside is you’ll still be happy about it; Big Nog just won his fight.
"He's like Elvis in Korea! They love him there." - Mike Goldberg on Denis Kang
Haha, true.
I have used that Philosophy to bet on personal favorites a lot. I have also used the philosophy that if my fighter loses or is losing, I can take comfort in watching his ass get kicked.
By the way, I hate when people say so and so fighter will win the fight 20% of the time or such and such. It’s like saying a fighter will land a lucky punch 20% of the time. When the underdog dominates the favorite, it’s obvious this is not true. The way I like to think of it is: From the evidence of past fights, I think it’s probable this fighter can win in “so and so fashion” and I like the odds enough to bet. Maybe it’s the same thing, but the former sounds like we’re betting on roulette or something.
Yeah, but that’s people stressing just because everybody picks a certain way doesn’t make the fight a lock. If Silva gets dominated it’s right to say the betting line and our confidence in it was misplaced. If Anderson puts on a poor performance and Okami wins a very narrow decision based on mostly pointless takedowns, it’s still fair to say he’d only win 1/5 times.
"He's like Elvis in Korea! They love him there." - Mike Goldberg on Denis Kang
I still don’t like that saying, even in the latter example. If they fought four more times and that same outcome came out four more times, which is very possible, since obviously one can get the takedown now, and has theoretically proven it, it’s not really a number set in stone.
I dunno, I guess maybe when a fighter wins I like being able to say that that fighter was the better fighter and that they didn’t just get a bad beat win. I mean yea, from the Sonnen Silva fight, one might think that Sonnen would win most of the time. But to say he would win X/Y amount of times sounds like you’re talking about roulette or flipping a coin where you know the exact probability.
Really not a big deal, just a thought…
About Okami,
I just hope he doesn’t pull a Jim Miller and try a standing arm triangle against Ben Henderson (Who I have seen survive all kinds of submissions when I thought for sure he had to tap.) As long as Okami doesn’t stand with Silva except for a few moments to mix it up to improve his takedown chances, and he uses a smart gameplan of going for the takedown, I will be happy that he tried even if he loses.
If we’re being honest, though, Nogueira hasn’t looked good since his UFC debut against Herring.
I thought he looked pretty good against Couture. Still, I’m picking Schaub no matter how much I want Nog to win.
"A champion is someone who gets up when he can't." - Jack Dempsey
by Jack.Barrington on Aug 27, 2011 2:23 AM EDT reply actions
Betting blindly
I usually bet for all the underdogs, but something is telling me not to this time around. I bet on Eduardo, Jabouin, Miller, Pearson, and the only underdog I’m truly confident in is Forrest Griffin. Big Nog is too much of a liability with all his injuries, Silva is never to be bet against. This might be a bad betting night lol, seeing as how in the last Versus card, almost every underdog pulled out the victory. I don’t see the same thing happening here especially in front of the Brazilian crowd.
by CRA$Chri-stop-her$FTY on Aug 27, 2011 12:32 PM EDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bloody Elbow
Related FanShots on Bloody Elbow
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
MMA Rankings
