Tito Ortiz was both a success and a failure at odds longer than +300 this year.
After noticing that no underdog with longer odds than +135 (Constantinos Philippou) pulled off a win at UFC 133, it got me wondering how underdog wins have broken down in the UFC lately. I went back over every 2011 fight and used the fighter's best available odds at belltime. Here is how the data breaks down:
|+115 to +149||18-16-1 (.514)|
|+150 to +199||7-28-1 (.194)|
|+200 to +249||8-19 (.296)|
|+250 to +299||4-14 (.222)|
|+300 and above||5-27 (.156)|
There were nine fights that were "pick 'em" fights with closer than +115 odds which I did not count.
The first thing that jumped out to me was seeing that underdogs under +150 actually have a winning record to this point in the year. There is a huge drop from +150 to +199, which is surprising given that coming in I assumed we'd see a pretty steady decline as odds got longer.
The five men to win at over +300 were Rani Yahya (+300 vs. Mike Brown), Dennis Siver (+354 vs. George Sotiropoulos), George Roop (+400 vs. Josh Grispi), Charlie Brenneman (+425 vs. Rick Story) and Tito Ortiz (+525 vs. Ryan Bader).