Tito Ortiz was both a success and a failure at odds longer than +300 this year.
After noticing that no underdog with longer odds than +135 (Constantinos Philippou) pulled off a win at UFC 133, it got me wondering how underdog wins have broken down in the UFC lately. I went back over every 2011 fight and used the fighter's best available odds at belltime. Here is how the data breaks down:
| Odds Range | Record |
| +115 to +149 | 18-16-1 (.514) |
| +150 to +199 | 7-28-1 (.194) |
| +200 to +249 | 8-19 (.296) |
| +250 to +299 | 4-14 (.222) |
| +300 and above | 5-27 (.156) |
There were nine fights that were "pick 'em" fights with closer than +115 odds which I did not count.
The first thing that jumped out to me was seeing that underdogs under +150 actually have a winning record to this point in the year. There is a huge drop from +150 to +199, which is surprising given that coming in I assumed we'd see a pretty steady decline as odds got longer.
The five men to win at over +300 were Rani Yahya (+300 vs. Mike Brown), Dennis Siver (+354 vs. George Sotiropoulos), George Roop (+400 vs. Josh Grispi), Charlie Brenneman (+425 vs. Rick Story) and Tito Ortiz (+525 vs. Ryan Bader).
Clearly, what I'm saying is that you should run out and lay some money on Donald Cerrone (+115) and Ed Herman (+123) for tonight's UFC on Versus 5 card but stay away from Ben Henderson at +150.
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