Can the UFC Succeed in Japan?
by Nate Wilcox on Jul 21, 2011 10:47 AM EDT
in UFC Analysis
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UFC President Dana White has spoken publicly of his plans to put on a UFC event in Japan. The promotion hasn't been to the Land of the Rising Sun since UFC 29 in December 2000. In 2007, UFC parent company Zuffa bought Pride Fighting Championship and announced plans to continue running Pride events, but they gave up within the year and killed the promotion.
Since the collapse of Pride, the Japanese MMA market has imploded, both Dream and Sengoku have lost their TV contracts. Japan, the market that was the gravitational center of MMA from 2000-2007 has now become an afterthought in the international MMA business.
Zach Arnold and Jordan Breen talked about the prospects for the UFC in Japan and Zach elaborated on the conversation at Fight Opinion:
Jordan calls the idea of UFC running a show in Japan as a ‘vanity show' and I agree with him. Japan is no longer a substantial MMA market to make money in. There's a reason you see One FC and Legend FC running in Macau, in Singapore (I predicted that specific area a couple of years ago would see substantial activity because of what the country offers), and in Hong Kong.
The primary reason I stated that UFC would be interested in running in Japan is to basically placate egos in management that want to kill the meaning of PRIDE in their heads. I said this to Jordan and I stick by it - Dana White and company still mark out over PRIDE in 2011 and magnify an imaginary feud with PRIDE to this day. It's a ghost and it's almost as if wanting to run a show in Japan is to prove to the Japanese that PRIDE was nothing, that their rules suck, and that UFC is superior to PRIDE. PRIDE is dead, so it shouldn't matter. With that said, I don't believe for one second that UFC isn't interested in running in Japan in order to continue with the fixation of proving that the foreign power is best and that foreign fighters are better than Japanese fighters. Again, it doesn't matter if it's truthful or not, if you're a Japanese fan why do you want to watch natives get buried to foreigners you've never seen on television and never will largely care about?
There is a great romance that people who have spent many years in the MMA business have with Japan as far as what it meant and still try to project recent history with what the current landscape really is like.
I have to respectfully disagree with Arnold here in one respect. I don't think that Dana White, Joe Silva and the Ferttitas want to bury Japanese MMA. I believe those guys are as much marks for the memory of the greatness that was Japanese MMA during the boom. They want to recapture some of that excitement, not kill it.
Nevertheless, it seems that the momentum in Asian MMA is in Macau and Hong Kong, not Japan.
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I think the major announcement was UFC 138 in the UK.
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by Nate Wilcox on Jul 21, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
If the UFC wants to succeed in Japan they need to do a few things.
1. Hire Bob Sapp Immediately
2. Make every freak show imaginable
3. Hire Minowa
4. Make money
You know what they say
I'm with Nate here
I think they romanticize the idea of big shows in Japan, because it was something we (those of us that watched PRIDE in their heyday) all look fondly upon. That scenario of the Fertitta’s and Dana wanting to crush the memory of PRIDE seems purely fantasy.
They’re willing to lose money to encroach on new territory. They have some still-relevant talent to the Japanese, as well as some character types that they might latch onto. Who among us hasn’t dreamt of an alternate universe in which guys like Cheick Kongo or Brock Lesnar fought in PRIDE?
"I can be friends with anybody. Man. Woman. Cat. Dog. Fish..... Alien." -Rampage
Nate: For once, I completely agree. There’s a reason Dana and Lorenzo brought in as many former PRIDE stars as they could with big money contracts, despite the fact that many North American fans weren’t all that aware of who they were. In addition to the fact that they simply wanted to turn the UFC into the absolute major league of MMA with all the top fighters, they were also marks for the Japanese MMA scene during the boom period in PRIDE. By all accounts, Dana nearly pissed himself when he signed Wanderlei.
From a business perspective, I also think Arnold has it wrong. The UFC isn’t in the business of losing money for the sake of proving a point. If they know they’re going to be losing money on a shot in a short term, it’s because they’re doing it as an investment in the long term. From all indiciations, the UFC either lost money or wasn’t making that much of a profit during their initial trips to Europe. But they did that gladly because they knew they were losing in the short term to make truck loads of cash in the long term. And now they’ve done just that, with UFC shows in Europe generally being very successful. They’ve shown a commitment to the market and the market has responded. Not only has MMA fandom spread like wildfire in the UK, but the quality of fighters has improved drastically as quality training camps popped up.
Here, I would gather the UFC is looking to do the same thing. They might take a hit on a show or two but in the end it’s being done to invest in the market. Based on the success of PRIDE, the UFC knows that quality MMA can succeed in Japan. The issue is going to be whether the UFC can adapt its product to Japanese culture without sacrificing quality. That could be done as simply as making the entrances and presentation a bit more dramatic. Also, the UFC isn’t in the business of promoting true “freak show” fights, but adding something like Royce vs. Sakuraba III onto a big UFC card in Japan would help.
I'm with you except for the part about the European shows being so successful
looks to me like they’re headaches and certainly are anything but profitable. They’re being subsidized on the backs of the US PPV customers and as we’ve seen have played a huge role in losing about 100,000 customers who used to buy EVERY UFC ppv but now wait for the big ones.
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by Nate Wilcox on Jul 21, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough.
I think my point still stands but not exactly the way I laid it out. So allow me to clarify.
The events themselves may not be directly profitable, but the UFC continues to run shows there because the indirect financial benefits are well worth it. When the UFC heads to the UK, they show a commitment to the market and placate the existing fanbase there while simultaneously growing it. That means more fans of UFC and MMA in general, meaning more people who will contribute to the UFC’s bottom line, whether it by buying tickets to live events, purchasing merchandise, or watching it on TV. When the UFC grows the TV market, it’s essentially expanding how much it can make off of advertising dollars.
Plus, there’s a reason the UK shows generally feature weaker main events and a ton of local talent — moreso than you’d generally see on any other card. The higher tax rates in the UK and all of that have been touched on by a lot of people, and the UFC is able to offset that by having a lower fighter payroll. With that said, I still don’t think the UFC is profiting off the actual show itself the way it does in other markets, but I would be heavily surprised if they weren’t at least pulling a slight profit.
by dropkick101 on Jul 21, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
They have been profitable since UFC 95
Outside of soccer the UFC is ESPN UK’s biggest contract which helps push the events into the black.
http://unintelligentdefense.blogspot.com
by MattParker117 on Jul 21, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
they're profitable
because they’ve cut the cards to the bone and have eliminated any true headliners from the Euro/UK cards.
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by Nate Wilcox on Jul 21, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hence Leben vs Munoz
Which would never headline an event beyond a Fight Night or Versus Show stateside.
Bloody Elbow Grappling Editor.
Berate Me on Twitter @KJGould
China and the islands is where it's at
I think the only reason to go to Japan is in tribute or for nostalgia. It’s also still unclear how bad Japan is with regards to radiation since the Japanese government don’t appear to be entirely forthcoming with information. From what I’ve read it’s worse than chernobyl and that it was a melt-through which is much worse than a melt-down.
What fighter wants to risk going to Japan and possibly end up with radiation poisoning?
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Berate Me on Twitter @KJGould
that's pretty implausible
although the radiation has gotten into the foodchain, but Tokyo’s not in range of the radiation.
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by Nate Wilcox on Jul 21, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm in (mainland) China right now (though my VPN has me all over the world, damn you Great Firewall!)
No one I’ve talked to has even heard of MMA/UFC, let alone fans of it. I guess there are some MMA gyms around but they are English speaking which means it’s not so much for native Chinese.
Macau effectively is just an extension of people traveling from Hong Kong (all of the casinos in Macau take HK Dollars and most don’t even accept the native Macau currency!!!!), and Hong Kong, while a big city, is still only 7 million people.
Oh and it wasn’t worse than Chernobyl that’s pure fear mongering.
Not afraid to nitpick
What I don't understand
Is where all the Japanese MMA fans went. It seems to me that if MMA was a thriving business a decade ago, the potential still exists for it to be a thriving business today, if a solid promotion (like the UFC) invests the requisite time and resources in rebuilding the market.
Was MMA just a fad that has since passed? Or is there an untapped market of Japanese MMA fans out there just waiting for a promotion to come back and revitalize the sport?
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
There are so few major TV stations in Japan
it’s easy for a very small circle of decision makers to control what’s popular by controlling what gets on the big channels. MMA got kicked off TV entirely in the last 8 months and was kicked off the gossip show hype circuit years ago (after Pride fell).
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
by Nate Wilcox on Jul 21, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
So was MMA fan support manufactured?
Or is there an underserved base of fans out there waiting for it to come back?
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
by Dave Strummer on Jul 21, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think Kid Nate or anyone else can tell you what exactly is going on in the minds of a significant portion of the Japanese population. But, just based on the circumstances as you have already laid them out, it would appear as though there are still many fight fans in Japan based on the success of PRIDE back in the day, the success of K1, and the people who still show up to Dream shows.
We’ll get a better sense of what the demand is like when the UFC eventually heads over.
by dropkick101 on Jul 21, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
The last dynamite had half the attendance of the previous one. The last dream card had less than 7,000 people there, the first dream cards had over 20k, while Pride was drawing 40k for Shockwave. The people don’t care as much because it isn’t on tv.
No doubt that the TV contract has a lot to do with it. But the fact that the attendance was a lot higher when the TV contracts were still in existence means that there is, at the least, an opportunity to grow the market. And the time to do that is now, considering the decline of Dream and Sengoku. If the UFC can put on a moderately successful event and sign a legit TV contract, then the sky is the limit. The first step is putting on an event though.
by dropkick101 on Jul 21, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
those two ifs at the end are very very big ifs, and that’s why it’s smart to question/doubt that Japanese mma will return to what it was. If the people that ran Pride and K1 and other Japanese people couldn’t get a legit TV contract, why would the UFC be able to?
You know how people like to complain about immigrants getting mortgages from banks while lifelong US citizens get denied? And of course that’s because the citizens that apply for a credit line are doing so with bad credit, while the immigrants haven’t done anything to show that they’re not going to pay.
The same line of reasoning goes here: the people that were running those promotions were doing a shit job, while the UFC has done nothing to show that it can’t be profitable for them. If anything, they’ve shown the opposite based on their success internationally.
Now, I’m not saying that that is exactly what’s going to happen here. Just that if it does, I imagine that would be the reasoning.
fan support was heightened by massive publicity
no matter where I go, people don’t want to hear me say that massive TV exposure has a massive influence on people’s interests and behavior.
The fact that MMA got massive massive massive exposure on Japanese TV — not just the fights, but also the whole celebrity building apparatus, talk shows, etc — was a huge driver of interest.
Now that fighters can’t get that kind of exposure no matter what, there is less interest.
The reality is that fight fans are fans of individual fighters and most of the individual fighters the Japanese market knew and cared about are done. Trying to sell Shinya Aoki or Yushin Okami to a market that has barely heard of them is a huge hurdle.
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by Nate Wilcox on Jul 21, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It depends on the definition of succeed. I don’t think they’ll be able to restart Pride or get anywhere near the ratings Pride used to, but they should be able to put on a show every year or two which could hopefully spark enough interest to get people in japan to care about ufc fights outside of Japan.
maybe im getting too sensitive
but i dont like how people are using that flag to represent Japan.
that flag was used during the WW II and its just like a symbol of Nazi to many east asians
but somehow that flag got really popular (i dont know, maybe people think it looks cool) but i think its kinda messed up that people don’t know what they are using to represent Japan.
to me, its just like asians using nazi symbol to represent germany and i believe many people will take it offensive.
Matt "The Terror" Serra!!!!
If any amateur MMA organization in NE is looking for an Asian fighter, let me know =)
the flag now is just the red dot on a white background, right?
And I think the source of that flag’s popularity can be summed up by two names: Karate Kid and Christian Hosoi.
Hey now! Do not blame Danielson
totally different.
If you can't wow them with brilliance, then baffle them with bullshit.
You're too sensitive
That flag (or some variety thereof) is still very much in use in the Japanese navy :)
by Redandwhite on Jul 21, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
this is total bullshit
if they did, its gonna be a huge issue. and the last time i saw that flag from japan was from the friendly soccer match b/t korea and japan and some japanese dumbass (im not saying all japanese are dumb, but there are some stupid ones) used it to make fun of korea.
im korean and my grandfather suffered from WWII and under japanese control. if any japanese navy you know used that flag, plz lemme know. id gladly sue that motherfucker.
Matt "The Terror" Serra!!!!
If any amateur MMA organization in NE is looking for an Asian fighter, let me know =)
im pretty sure u can
if i was running around with nazi mark, you think i won’t get sued?
Matt "The Terror" Serra!!!!
If any amateur MMA organization in NE is looking for an Asian fighter, let me know =)
I think you need to calm down. It’s hard to tell on this image, but the sun on this flag is off center (you can tell because the rays coming out of it are not symetrical, that is the Japanese Naval Ensign, so it’s going to be used at a minimum on every japanese naval ship. The current Japanese army also has a similar flag. Both are different than the flag of the Imperial Japanese Army (wikipedia is fun).
by Phildo on Jul 21, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Are you Japanese? If not, this is similar to misplaced white guilt, which is when white people get offended by something they construe as racist towards black people when black people themselves aren’t offended.
by dropkick101 on Jul 21, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
i don't agree with that dude arnold
UFC wants to go into Japan to make money, pure and simple. they think they can rekindle that spark from the past ten years. it’s a huge market.
as cool as pride was, and i’m not saying it wasn’t bitching, i bet to dana white it’s not much more than elite xc or affliction or strikeforce. just roadkill.
the people who are still bitter about the ufc/pride rivalry are pride fans, not the ufc brass. frankly, arnold’s commentary seems like another example of that “pride never die” stuff, and boy oh boy, is that getting old.
off topic, but i am going to go on record saying that i actually find the mma hipster crowd (“you’re not a true fan because you got into the sport six years ago!”) MORE annoying than all the fans brock lesnar brought over with him. at least those guys have an excuse for being dimwits. i know it must be hard to see the bandwagon jumpers come into the sport, but give me a break.
Agree entirely on the last point.
But as to the whole “to dana it’s not much more than exc or affliction,” that’s just plain wrong. Dana has stated on multiple occasions that PRIDE was the only legitimate competition the UFC has ever had. While he would never have admitted it back then, his statements about how shitty the UFC heavyweight division used to be (Sylvia, Arlovski, Monson, etc.) is him essentially admitting how awesome the PRIDE division used to be.
by dropkick101 on Jul 21, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
i didn’t mean to equate pride with those other lesser promotions.
i just mean that, to the UFC today, having sold 1.4 million PPVs for UFC 100, or whatever, and had 55k int the rogers centre, and totally dominating the scene, the idea that dana white goes to bed at night and can’t sleep because he’s thinking that PRIDE was so awesome, and that he is going to plan a show in japan that will lose money just to exorcise those demons, which is what arnold seems to be implying, to me is ridiculous.
of course PRIDE was a bigger deal than those other promotions. PRIDE was awesome. but it’s July 2011 now. i don’t think dana’s sweating them any more than any of the other names on his tombstone.
Eh, times have changed. That used to be the case based on how the execs of PRIDE and K1 had it out for the UFC. The way I understand it, hose guys are generally out of power now. The ones that are still around are working for Sengoku or Dream and those promotions are on the brink. The business execs in Japan, like anyone else, are looking to make money. And if the UFC can do that for them, then that’ll be the end of it.
MMA may be lifeless in Japan at the moment, but surely you could not discount the UFC’s ability to breathe new life into it.
Personally, I think the weak competition from the Japanese owned orgs, coupled with a previously fervent market for an exciting product, is begging Zuffa to get to Japan and make boatloads of cash.
Imagine the buzz behind a card that included Okami, Akiyama, Gomi, Omigawa and potentially (albeit unlikely) the likes of Aoki, Kawajiri or Sakuraba (don’t try to tell me Saku would not be an amazing ‘single fight’ signing). Throw in Wand, The Nogs or Rampage and it would be a great success.
Hit straight, hit hard, lift heavy.
by Doomrider on Jul 21, 2011 7:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
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