Lyoto Machida Opens as Heavy Favorite Against Rashad Evans
by Mike Fagan on Jul 12, 2011 11:30 PM EDT
in UFC Gambling
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News travels fast. Word just leaked that Lyoto Machida would step in for Phil Davis to fight Rashad Evans at UFC 133, and Bookmaker already has a line up for the fight:
Lyoto Machida -305
Rashad Evans +245
This was a line I expected given Evans' 15-month layoff and the result of their first fight at UFC 98. Machida dominated the first meeting, flummoxing Evans standing up before finishing him four minutes into the second round.
Evans should look more competitive in a rematch. He has let go of the notion that he's an elite striker, even if that has meant a "boring" and "safe" style of wrestling-first fighting.
That said, the style matchup still favors Machida. He is difficult to take, and hold, down, nullifying the strongest aspect of Evans' skill set.. The majority of the fight should take place standing, and Rashad hasn't shown enough improvement in his striking that suggest he can beat Machida in a kickboxing bout.
I don't like either side here. I think the money will come in on Machida, but I don't expect it to be enough to make an arb play viable.
Machida closed as a -180 favorite for the first fight against Evans at UFC 98.
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Awesome
You know what, chris81203? You confuse and infuriate me. - James Brady (Ninjames)
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No surprise here
I know a lot of people are going to waste money n Rashad hoping for a 3 round decision.
lots of people forget Rashad tried to take him down in the first fight as well.
but he couldn’t, so he was forced to stand, just like couture.
I don't think so
I think it is every main starting AFTER this one that is 5 rounds.
it would be even better for Machida in a 5 round fight imo
Couldn’t it technically be a 5 round fight?..I mean it’s a new contract….of course I could be way off.
by Jesus H. Christ on Jul 13, 2011 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Are you sure you have actually watched the first fight?
lots of people forget Rashad tried to take him down in the first fight as well.
but he couldn’t, so he was forced to stand, just like couture.
Or did I have a really loooong blink somewhere during that one…
"Life is tough, but it's tougher if you're stupid." -John Wayne
Death before dishonor, drinks before lunch.
Never send sheep to kill a wolf.
by The American Ronin on Jul 13, 2011 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Ha
Evans went from favorite to definite underdog in less than a day.
I’m a huge Lyoto fan, but I don’t love this fight for him on short notice. Rashad has been working his ass off training his wrestling for Phil. He’ll get utterly schooled again on his feet, but this time, he’s going to be smart enough to try to clinch and take Lyoto down the entire fight. Lyoto can handle him there, but I could see Rashad grinding out a decision in this if Lyoto isn’t in prime shape. If he is 100%, or close, then yeah, I think Rashad’s getting the lights turned out again.
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 12, 2011 11:36 PM EDT reply actions
Lyoto trained his clinch and TDD game for Randy; he should be in decent wrestling shape as well.
by Flying Gogoplata on Jul 12, 2011 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
He will.
Still not the same as preparing intensely for it over 3 months. Don’t get me wrong, I’m going with my boy here for sure, but I think people are sleeping on Rashad as usual…
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 12, 2011 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
?
He tried twice for a take down in the first round of their fight, and didn’t come close.
Machida has been working on his wrestling since he came into the ufc.
stuffed tito/rashad/couture absolutely effortlessly.
I just don’t see how Rashad wins this.
I don't think he'll win it either...
but comparing Randy to Rashad at this point isn’t an accurate comparison. And Rashad didn’t commit to taking Lyoto down in the first one. He only went for it when he’d gotten rocked, as he was still in love with his hands at that point. We’ll see, I think Lyoto will handle him and do serious damage, and will Rashad even have Greg Jackson to gameplan with? Just saying, anyone acting like it’s a complete walkover is kidding themselves.
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 12, 2011 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Machida maintains distance and is very elusive. Rashad will have very little to threaten him with on the feet. How will be do anything but blind charges that Machida will see coming a mile away.
"an excellent example of why most MMA "journalism" is a joke. Pseudonyms like "toxic" and shitty writing like that dopey article"--- Joe Rogan.
Cool, I can’t wait to see Lyoto walk through Rashad like Cain from Kung Fu. Sweet.
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 13, 2011 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
You keep repeating this nonsense, and
I should qualify this by saying that I couldn’t give 2 shits what fightmetric says (and I love me some Machida and don’t particularly care for Rashad), but when specifically do you think Rashad tried to take him down in the first, a legitimate takedown attempt?
"Life is tough, but it's tougher if you're stupid." -John Wayne
Death before dishonor, drinks before lunch.
Never send sheep to kill a wolf.
by The American Ronin on Jul 13, 2011 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions
He didn't even try to get a single TD
he just stood infront of Machida and stared 1 and a half round
by Mohammedini Hussein on Jul 13, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
If that line sticks it's a good bet.
Despite the hate, Rashad is damn good at what he does, and he’ll have the full camp to prepare, whereas Lyoto is scrambling to pull his team and gameplan together as we speak.
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 12, 2011 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, no one is giving him a shot
by Afrotikiman on Jul 12, 2011 11:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Of course they aren't
because Machida’s striking and defensive grappling has improved by leaps and pounds where as Rashad’s chin has gotten worse.
Rashad also uses his great cardio to get guys down, and he is coming off a huge lay off and most likely will not have that advantage.
Won’t have to wait long to find out.
by Afrotikiman on Jul 12, 2011 11:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What makes you think his striking and grappling have improved by leaps and bounds? Randy Couture? Lyoto’s clinch game has always been very good, he threw Tito around pretty handily, but I haven’t seen huge improvement…His strength and conditioning training has probably been where the biggest gains have come.
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 12, 2011 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Machida
has always thrown straight accurate punches, but his timing, accuracy, and technique in the couture fight was just on another level.
And in terms of defensive grappling, there was a time when Thiago Silva was able to put him up against the cage.
now rashad/couture can’t even come close.
clear improvements, imo.
Well, like I said, Lyoto’s one of my favorite fighters so I don’t really want to argue it. I hope you’re right. What happened to Thiago in the two seconds after getting Lyoto to the fence…he ended up thrown on his ass for his troubles.
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 12, 2011 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
And promptly ktfo'd
"What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease."
by dedstrk316 on Jul 13, 2011 5:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Which was fucking awesome!
Man I went nuts for that knockout, that was a pretty damn good card as I recall.
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 13, 2011 7:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Damn
Rashad really shouldn’t have waited for that title shot… haha
This is great action even considering the first match and that Rashad gets rocked in every fight. I was just posting after the announcement that there would probably be smart money on Evans.
"He's like Elvis in Korea! They love him there." - Mike Goldberg on Denis Kang
I think a bet on Rashad is wise here..
Not only for the odds
I think he will grind out a decision against a cautious Machida.
Rashad is more effective than those two.
by Afrotikiman on Jul 12, 2011 11:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
eh
Man, Tito and Couture were hugging guys, walling n stalling, and going out of their way not to fight when Rashad was pissing off matt hughes on the ultimate fighter.
Rashad is not the LHW jon fitch, he was semi active against rampage, and that allowed rampage to keep getting up.
You don’t need effective top control to steal a round with take-downs. Though when you think about it that’s actually kind of stupid.
Wall and stall is ineffective against Machida, Rashad just needs to survive on the feet and get maybe two take-downs per round for two rounds. I don’t know if he can do it, but it doesn’t seem impossible, that’s for sure.
"He's like Elvis in Korea! They love him there." - Mike Goldberg on Denis Kang
How do you say, “Rashad hasn’t shown enough improvement in his striking…” when no one has seen the guy fight in ages? Just wondering.
.....
In the Land of the Blind, the One-eyed Man knows who the hot girls are.
by Scabby Knuckle on Jul 12, 2011 11:46 PM EDT reply actions
He’s had two fights that went the distance since he fought Lyoto. And he got dropped in both.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
by Mike Fagan on Jul 12, 2011 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
My point was that there’s no recent history to base that statement on.
.....
In the Land of the Blind, the One-eyed Man knows who the hot girls are.
by Scabby Knuckle on Jul 12, 2011 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
He hasn’t shown improvements in the two fights since UFC 98. I’m not sure what you’re trying to say.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
The Rampage knockdown was a bit weird, as he pretty much rocked himself by charging into Rampage’s stationary knee.
by paythefighters on Jul 13, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Wait, Machida has lost two of his last three, with his one win over an aged fighter on the verge of retirement… not sure I’m seeing where he’s shown he’s an odds-on favorite here. Man, I am so talking myself into picking Evans….
.....
In the Land of the Blind, the One-eyed Man knows who the hot girls are.
by Scabby Knuckle on Jul 12, 2011 11:52 PM EDT reply actions
Uh… UFC 98?
Usually, when you see a guy clown another guy for two rounds before one of the nastiest KO’s in recent memory, it’s pretty reasonable to think the next fight will go the same way. What I saw at 98 wasn’t just a bad game plan; it was a guy who had nothing to offer on any level.
"an excellent example of why most MMA "journalism" is a joke. Pseudonyms like "toxic" and shitty writing like that dopey article"--- Joe Rogan.
Its not like Rampage dominated him or anything. I’d give Machida the nod in that fight
Dudes, we party too hard so now our bodies are in terrible shape. So we gotta trick the doctor by making it seem like we're in really good shape! .. and there's only one way to do that.... bleach... here drink this Murderface.
If you have some extra money, that is a very good line to take some risk
by Afrotikiman on Jul 13, 2011 12:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I thought Lyoto pretty clearly won that fight as well. Not counting Rashad out, but Lyoto should be the clear favorite.
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 13, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Rashad loses this fight more times than he wins it
but with a new camp, new coaching, and having losing tape of Lyoto to study… he can win. But hey, I also think Jackson’s coaching is horribly overrated.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Evans can't emulate Rampage or Shogun's style
He doesn’t have anything near the footwork of Rampage or Shogun’s legkicks and power.
Also new does note equal better. I’m pretty sure his new training partners aren’t up to par with the people he could train with at Jacksons.
I think Jackson's "boringness" is overrated
He tried to expand the game of a wrestling based, near-LnP fighter so that he could do more standup. Rashad looked like he had some hidden anger towards Jackson in the aftermath of UFC 98 for not having a wrestling based gameplan.
by paythefighters on Jul 13, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t Rashad take it upon himself to stay away from the wrestling in that one, having become so enamored with his stand-up as he had…
"Life is tough, but it's tougher if you're stupid." -John Wayne
Death before dishonor, drinks before lunch.
Never send sheep to kill a wolf.
by The American Ronin on Jul 13, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
That's all I'm saying
rarely do two fights with the same two fighters go the same way. Maybe Lyoto destroys him in 20 seconds, maybe Rashad lands the Chuck Retirement Express on him. More likely Rashad is even more cautious this time, tries to set up takedowns, gets shrugged off or throw, and Lyoto sharp shoots his way to a decision. I just wish Lyoto had a full camp for this…
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 13, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Ace and Demacio unfortunately suffered de ja vu
by Afrotikiman on Jul 13, 2011 12:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah Tito as well. He must still have nightmares of Chuck’s bombs coming at him, again, and again…
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 13, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Demacio to the extreme
same move, same second in the fight.
About 2.5 years between their fights, and Page couldn’t last one second longer, let alone win, or anything like that.
Georges St-Pierre vs. Anderson Silva
by Chris Groves on Jul 13, 2011 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions
yep -—> “He is difficult to take, and hold, down, nullifying the strongest aspect of Evans’ skill set.”
rashad has become one of my least favorite fighters to watch lately. as has rampage, as has machida. i haven’t cared much about the 205 weightclass since Machida and Shogun fought, and that was only a good fight b/c Shogun stalked Machida down and made him fight.
Gatti. Dekkers. Pele. Aoki. Kang. Vanderlei. Basillio. Harry Greb.
by theworldsoldestsport on Jul 13, 2011 12:24 AM EDT reply actions
Have you heard about this Jon Jones character:)?
What's this war in the heart of nature? Why does nature vie with itself? The land contend with the sea? Is there an avenging power in nature? Not one power, but two?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 13, 2011 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
whoa
that is not bad odds at all to lay on ’shad.
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by Cory Braiterman on Jul 13, 2011 12:50 AM EDT reply actions
I miss the days when MMA odds makers had no idea what they were doing.
by Jesus H. Christ on Jul 13, 2011 1:22 AM EDT reply actions
Oddsmakers always know precisely what they’re doing. There was a time that the betting public did not, though…
by paythefighters on Jul 13, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
So Machida is fighting Rashad, a guy that he destroyed and is not fighting against the guy who many thought he won against, Rampage. And Rampage is now fighting the guy that Rashad was originally supposed to fight, even though Jones pulled out of the Rashad fight due to “injury”.
Anyone fight that at least a little bit amusing?
If it's three rounds, I'd bet Rashad on that line.
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by Derek Suboticki on Jul 13, 2011 2:25 AM EDT reply actions
Ring rust
Probably one of the main reasons the odds are so heavily in Machida’s favor.
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