I'm going to try something a little different with the gambling articles. Instead of breaking down fights with a gambling slight -- which, frankly, is time consuming and tedious, I'll pick out a handful of lines that I like. As MMA betting matures, books are starting to offer more exotic props, and those are a lot more fun to discuss than straight wagers.
So with that in mind...
For starters, Bodog has this prop at +440. That's a pretty big discrepancy, even if we factor in the juice on the Bodog line. Wanderlei's coming off a 15-month layoff, plus he's 34 years old (though he looks 44 at this point). And while he knocked down Michael Bisping, we still don't know if his power will translate with the cut 185 pounds. I don't think Leben's improved too much since his bed-pissing days, but this is more of a bet against Silva than anything else.
If you're going to bet on Cruz -- who is around -160 at most books -- you might as well take him for plus odds by decision. Cruz doesn't have the power of Mike Brown, plus Faber made it through five rounds against Brazilian torture device Jose Aldo. If there's a finish, I think Faber catches him with a guillotine, but I expect Cruz to be prepared for the scrambles.
Similar reasoning as the Cruz bet above (though I also have Kim straight up at EVEN). Condit gets taken down, a lot -- John Alessio brought him down four times, and Kim's top game is more smothering than it is about finding a finish.
I have Melvin straight up as well, but getting near 3-1 odds for a decision on a lightweight who trains with Greg Jackson? Yeah, I'll take that.