UFC 132 Gambling Spotlight Featuring Dominick Cruz, Urijah Faber, Wanderlei Silva, and Chris Leben

by Mike Fagan on Jul 1, 2011 3:00 PM EDT in UFC Gambling

Wanderlei Silva and Chris Leben square off at the UFC 132 pre-fight press conference. Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

I'm going to try something a little different with the gambling articles. Instead of breaking down fights with a gambling slight -- which, frankly, is time consuming and tedious, I'll pick out a handful of lines that I like. As MMA betting matures, books are starting to offer more exotic props, and those are a lot more fun to discuss than straight wagers.

So with that in mind...

Chris Leben wins decision vs. Wanderlei Silva +799 (5Dimes)

For starters, Bodog has this prop at +440. That's a pretty big discrepancy, even if we factor in the juice on the Bodog line. Wanderlei's coming off a 15-month layoff, plus he's 34 years old (though he looks 44 at this point). And while he knocked down Michael Bisping, we still don't know if his power will translate with the cut 185 pounds. I don't think Leben's improved too much since his bed-pissing days, but this is more of a bet against Silva than anything else.

Dominick Cruz wins decision vs. Urijah Faber +125 (Bodog) and Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber completes 5 rounds -225 (5Dimes)

If you're going to bet on Cruz -- who is around -160 at most books -- you might as well take him for plus odds by decision. Cruz doesn't have the power of Mike Brown, plus Faber made it through five rounds against Brazilian torture device Jose Aldo. If there's a finish, I think Faber catches him with a guillotine, but I expect Cruz to be prepared for the scrambles.

Dong Hyun Kim wins decision vs. Carlos Condit +120 (Bodog)

Similar reasoning as the Cruz bet above (though I also have Kim straight up at EVEN). Condit gets taken down, a lot -- John Alessio brought him down four times, and Kim's top game is more smothering than it is about finding a finish.

Melvin Guillard wins decision vs. Shane Roller +260 (Bodog)

I have Melvin straight up as well, but getting near 3-1 odds for a decision on a lightweight who trains with Greg Jackson? Yeah, I'll take that.

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Comments

Wow those lines on Cruz and Kim are nice. If you think either of them will win, you might as well take them winning a decision. Personally I have both of them winning by decision.

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by Tim Bernier on Jul 1, 2011 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting breakdown

More useful than just looking at the standard lines, which I can figure out myself.

I think the best line is Leben going to a three round decision against Wanderlei.

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by thetakeover on Jul 1, 2011 3:09 PM EDT reply actions

Wrong.

Leben either knocks guys out or loses. He has never beaten any decent fighter by decision.

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by lowellthehammer on Jul 1, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

These are some great tips, and I think I might roll on a few of them. I still think Condit will win though.

by Matt Lo Cascio on Jul 1, 2011 3:20 PM EDT reply actions

Can’t see any way Leben beats Silva, even an 8 year removed from his prime version. Chris is a tough guy, but when has he ever beaten, or even been competitive, with a striker like Wanderlei? As for Lebens defensive abilities…..

by sheikybaby on Jul 1, 2011 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

It’s not like Wanderlei’s ever been a super technical guy himself. Especially from distance.

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by Mike Fagan on Jul 1, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, here we go.

Criticize away. The Bader/Guillard/Bowles parlay is ultra conservative. I wasn’t going for value, only trying to get my money back if I lose everything else. Plus I lost in ridiculous fashion on Strikeforce two weeks ago which made me scared.

$5 to win $40 on Leben winning by decision? How can I not throw down $5 on that?

Cruz by 5 round unan. is the focal point of all of this. Winning that would make my night.

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by Tim Bernier on Jul 1, 2011 3:46 PM EDT reply actions

If I had the money sitting around right now I’d go all in on that Cruz by decision. That’s exactly how I see the fight going.

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by Kaleb Kelchner on Jul 1, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

What site is that?

Looking to lay a few points down on the action tomorrow.

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by John Lamb on Jul 1, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

5Dimes. Great site.

"I have reached an age when, if someone tells me to wear socks, I don't have to."- Albert Einstein

by Tim Bernier on Jul 1, 2011 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Cool, thanks man.

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by John Lamb on Jul 1, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I had no idea you could include prop bets in a parlay like that.

I wish I hadn’t placed my bets already

by X5-452 on Jul 2, 2011 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Best description of Aldo ever:

Brazilian torture device Jose Aldo

Let the fighters fight, let the referees ref, but dear God, don't let the judges judge.

by halitosis on Jul 1, 2011 5:46 PM EDT reply actions

Was that dig at Guillard/Jackson really necessary?

There’s only two UFC guys left in the top ranks of LW with recent finishes: Guillard and Miller.

Show the man some respect instead of relegating him to the no-finish pool. We need guys like him at the top of the division, and if being a bit less wild and more technical than he used to be is what’s needed to keep him in the conversation, then I’m all for it. We shouldn’t have to choose between exciting fights and relevant fights.

by paythefighters on Jul 1, 2011 6:20 PM EDT reply actions

What dig, exactly?

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by Mike Fagan on Jul 1, 2011 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions

ask your subconscious

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by The Midge on Jul 2, 2011 1:11 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I have Melvin straight up as well, but getting near 3-1 odds for a decision on a lightweight who trains with Greg Jackson? Yeah, I’ll take that.

The “Jackson fighters don’t finish” or “Jackson makes fighters boring” BS has to stop.

Guillard proved everyone wrong about Jackson yet again. As did Condit, incidentally.

by paythefighters on Jul 4, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

you made me need a bodog acct

I’ve been using betus, mostly cuz I’ve just had money in it since ufc 102. The have over/unders for ever fight but not sweet props like this very often.

That cruz by decision line is beautiful

The poster formerly known as drunkinmidget187, then Chris Toffer, and now finally in it's Pokemon-esque final evolution (thanks to the leaf stoned)- The Midge! Prepare yourself. @GalsGuidesMidge

by The Midge on Jul 2, 2011 1:12 AM EDT via mobile reply actions