Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley Breakdown and Prediction

LAS VEGAS, NV - MAY 04: Boxers Manny Pacquiao (L) and Shane Mosley pose during the final news conference for their bout at the MGM Grand Hotel/Casino May 4, 2011 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Pacquiao will defend his WBO welterweight title against Mosley on May 7, 2011 in Las Vegas. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

This post taken from Brent Brookhouse's coverage at SBNation.com/MMA of tonight's boxing bout between Manny Pacquiao and Shane Mosley.

Saturday, May 7, 2011 sees the world's number one pound-for-pound boxer, Manny Pacquiao, step back into the ring. Pacquiao will face "Sugar" Shane Mosley on Showtime pay-per-view. The PPV broadcast starts at 9:00 p.m. ET.

How They Match Up

Shane Mosley - 46-6-1 (39 KO), 39 years old, 5'9", 74" reach, Official Weight - 147 lbs

Manny Pacquiao - 52-3-2 (38 KO), 32 years old, 5'6", 67" reach, Official Weight - 145 lbs

Last 5 Fights

Shane Mosley - Draw - Sergio Mora, Loss (Dec) - Floyd Mayweather Jr., Win (TKO-9) Antonio Margarito, Win (KO-12) Ricardo Mayorga, Loss (Dec) Miguel Cotto

Manny Pacquiao - Win (Dec) - Antonio Margarito, Win (Dec) - Joshua Clottey, Win (TKO-12) - Miguel Cotto, Win (KO-2) - Ricky Hatton, Win (TKO-8) - Oscar De La Hoya

The Breakdown

Manny Pacquiao will enter the ring as a huge favorite. His ability to seemingly move to whatever weight class he wants and dominate his opponents has been amazing. Still, from the pre-fight hype one would be led to believe that all Manny has to do is show up, step in the ring and have his hand raised. It's not going to be that easy.

Shane Mosley is a fading star, yes. But he's a fading star who is battle tested and still possesses shocking power in both hands. He's also the bigger man by several inches. Once the fighters rehydrate after the weigh-in it's possible that Mosley will have upwards of a ten pound weight advantage.

But, as we saw in Pacquiao's fight against Margarito, being the smaller man does not mean he will be outmuscled or "fight small."

Pacquiao does have a bad habit lately of standing a bit stationary at times and inviting his opponent to hit him. If Mosley can land one of his powerful right hand shots he can drop Manny, even with Pacquiao's solid chin. Unfortunately for Mosley, if Manny decides to use movement and speed, he just can't match foot or handspeed in 2011. He just is not the quick and athletic fighter he was early in his career.

Everything comes down to Manny's ability to avoid the right hand and overwhelm with speed and combinations. It should be something that he is able to do, but Mosley has beaten men who "should" have beaten him in the past and he'll be doing everything he can to make it happen again.

Prediction

I spent weeks leading up to this fight thinking about how easy of a night it would be or Pacquiao. But over the last few days I've been unable to shake the feeling that something is going to happen. Manny can be hit, and Mosley can hit hard. It's entirely possible (hell, it's entirely likely) that Pacquiao busts Mosley up and even knocks him out. But I'm going to go with my gut and pick Mosley to score the TKO win somewhere between rounds 4 and 6.

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