Fedor Emelianenko vs. Dan Henderson Gambling Lines Open
by Mike Fagan on May 15, 2011 3:00 PM EDT
in Strikeforce News
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Several offshore sports books released odds for the July 30th superfight between former Pride heavyweight champ Fedor Emelianenko and current Strikeforce light heavyweight champ Dan Henderson. Courtesy of Best Fight Odds:
(These odds should update on their own.)
At the time of writing, the -253/+225 line is available at Pinnacle, which does not accept American customers. The readily-available line for those in the States is -275/+215.
Emelianenko is 1-2 in three Strikeforce fights; his losses to Fabricio Werdum and Antonio Silva being the first since the infamous doctor's stoppage loss to Tsuyoshi Kohsaka during a Rings tournament in 2000. The best-available lines on Emelianenko closed at -450 vs. Silva, -480 vs. Werdum, and -505 vs. Brett Rogers.
Henderson is 2-1 in his three Strikeforce bouts, his lone loss coming by decision to Jake Shields at middleweight. He defeated Rafael Cavalcante in March to become Strikeforce's 205-pound champion. The best-available lines on Henderson closed at -128 vs. "Feijao", -250 vs. Renato Sobral, and -340 vs. Jake Shields.
According to SB Nation's Jonathan Snowden, Strikeforce will promote the bout at heavyweight, but both fighters have agreed to a 220-pound catchweight limit.
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Yeah it is.
I’m surprised the line is so high for Fedor, but I also really just don’t understand how the fuck the betting companies make their money.
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by ElliotMatheny on May 16, 2011 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Lines are set based on their bettors' opinions
Betting companies adjust the lines so they will win no matter who wins (though they may bias it towards making more money if the favorite wins, since it’s more likely).
For these lines, people who bet on Fedor think he has a >71% chance of winning, and those who bet on Hendo think he has a >31% chance of winning. If the lines are adjusted, then one side become more attractive (e.g. if Hendo was +300, you’d only have to expect a 25% chance of winning for that to be the smart bet), and money flows that way.
Now, with these lines, for every $1000 of bets, there’s probably ~$700 put on Fedor and ~$300 put on Hendo. If Fedor wins, the winners get paid $700*(100/247) = $283 in winnings and the betting company takes $300 from the losers. If Hendo wins, the winners get paid $300*(220/100) = $660 in winnings while the betting company takes $700 from the losers. Notice that the betting company makes profit either way.
This is why betting lines are a true consensus of who will win a fight. It’s similar to how a stock market assesses the value of a company based on opinion of its likely future earnings.
by paythefighters on May 16, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting,
thanks for the breakdown man. I’m not much of a math guy, but that was very easy to follow and concise.
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by ElliotMatheny on May 16, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
meh
it’s bad for Fedor, great for Hendo.
Nothing I’ve ever cared to see really but I think Fedor can take it.
I dont get how its bad for fedor
Conducting an experiment on knocking people out in particular ways would be unethical.
Fedor beats a middleweight, who cares? Fedor loses to a middleweight, LOL!
Not saying I agree, but that’s the idea that people have floated.
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I agree, this isnt really a win for Fedor in my eyes. Fedor a HW beats Hendo LHW doesnt do much to say that he can still hand with the HW’s. If he wants to get back his career back on the winning ways, he needs drop done to LHW.
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Fedor has got a thing for Team Quest middleweights.
Benji Radach should watch out, he might be next.
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thats exactly the idea.
People have always said he only wins against people his own size or smaller, this will just reinforce that notion.
I doubt it will show any development by both either as we’ll see them trading bombs for the KO.
It’s only good for Fedor if he goes down in weight and stays there.
by Roaringblood on May 15, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
So Fedor’s gonna cut like what, 10lb from his last fight? So much for the Fedor 2.0 with abs that we’re all yearning for..
by the guy with the big nose on May 15, 2011 3:14 PM EDT reply actions
Dont worry the abs are somewhere under all that lard… We just wont see it. But he doesnt need a six pack to be badass again.
by BULLieS on May 15, 2011 3:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
he's not cutting weight at all.
he’s already at 220 lbs.
by Anton Tabuena on May 16, 2011 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions
At those odds I'd definitely drop cash on Dandy Dan
That is of course if I had cash.
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by Neil Manich on May 15, 2011 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Everyone wants to talk about how Fedor’s a HW and the size advantage isn’t fair but yet Feijao,Sobral,Rampage walk around the same size as Fedor if not bigger. The size advantage is just an excuse people will use if Fedor wins.
Fedor is a natural middleweight. There is no size advantage. If Fedor was younger and use to cutting I think he could make 170, look at Anthony Johnson he is bigger than Fedor.
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by Kefka on May 15, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You really think
Fedor could cut around 60 LBS. and make WW because AJ can(sometimes)? Thats just ridiculous.
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Anthony is bigger than Fedor, imo. With the lasted wieght cutting tec larger and larger people are going down, now Nate M. for example. Like I said I don’t think he could do it now, but if he had a history of wieght cutting he could.
I do think he could make Middleweight though.
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Rumble is gonna kill himself cutting from fucking 230+ all the way to 170! Its extremely bad for his body. Dude needs to move to MW. It might prolong his career.
You Sir are weak and unable to look evil in the eye and deal with it! Jack Bauer.
I don’t think Rumble Johnson is 230 in the cage. That’s his walk-around conehead weight, not his fighting weight.
Doesnt change the fact that he had to cut 60+ pounds to make weight. name any other fighter that has to cut nearly that much from walk around to weigh in. I can only think of Rampage, Forest, and Jones. Page and Forest I know are cutting around 30-40 for Weight. Jones is probably close to the same. Alves used to have to cut a lot but got his diet under control and now doesnt cut weight.
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idk where to start with this...
Doesnt change the fact that he had to cut 60+ pounds to make weight
Actually, it makes all the difference – “walking around” weight is essentially meaningless and has little to do with weigh-in weight or in the cage weight. Hell, Anderson supposedly gets north of 220 between fights, but that too is just excess bodyfat.
An in shape Jones is in the lower 220’s, a fat, between fights Rampage is reportedly 245+, but that has nothing to do with anything as far as in-cage weight.
Alves does still cut, just not as much under Dolce.
Actual weight cutting (in the combat sports use of the phrase) is the rapid dehydration/rehydration process done the week of weigh-in (with most of the actual loss/gain taking place +/- 24 hours of weigh-in).
What guys like Anderson (and almost all non-North American-based elite fighters) do is simply drop excess bodyfat throughout the course of a training camp, not “cut weight” in the correct use of the phrase.
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by The American Ronin on May 16, 2011 3:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Fedor looks like he's got at least 15% bodyfat
So diet can knock of 20lbs from his walk-around weight without any effect on cage performance. He can probably retain 95% of his power/strength by losing 5-10lbs of muscle mass, too. Most good fighters don’t pack on too much muscle because it puts them in a weight class where they have a marked height/reach disadvantage.
So we’re looking at around 195lbs in-cage weight. That’s big for a WW, but not unreasonable.
by paythefighters on May 16, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Fedor is as much a natural middleweight as Cain Velasquez is.
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by memitim on May 15, 2011 5:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Velasquez has a bigger frame than Fedor, not to mention far larger leg muscles.
by paythefighters on May 16, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep. Fedor is not much bigger than Hendo, and what little extra weight he has will be mostly be fat anyway. I think it’s a good match-up. If it’s true that Fedor will come in at 220 pounds, and we’ll probably have Hendo at say 210, so really that’s only 10 pounds difference (estimated).
Also it’s one of these things where first people are like “Fedor is too small for HW!”, and then when he finally meets a guy his own size they complain that his opponent is too small. Weird.
by Horselover Fat on May 15, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
My betting line is -8000 that you won’t need judges for this one. Just a ref and an announcer to tell you what time the finish came.
idk about that...
Two guys who are notoriously difficult to finish, neither of which has ever been KO’d or TKO’d (where someone was pulled off of them instead of doctor stoppage due to injuries), doesn’t seem like a fight to anticipate a sure finish…
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by The American Ronin on May 16, 2011 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd put some serious money on that line
For the reasons stated above
War Hendo
He is going to win this fight, I guarantee it
Sure
If you bet on my non-existent betting website
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If this had been 3 years ago I wonder what the betting lines would be like.
uhh, very similar?
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by Hendo_One-Shot on May 15, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
You really think so?
I’d expect then to be much, much more in Fedor’s favor. According to the article he was almost a 5 to 1 favorite against Werdum and a 4.5 to 1 favorite against Pézão, while now he’s just 2 to 1 against Dan Henderson who’s much smaller than those two.Then again, I don’t gamble, so maybe it’s just ignorance.
This fight is great for Fedor. They’re roughly similar in size, I assume they’re fighting at LHW, and Hendo is an established quality name with the general fanbase. Fedor wins, and suddenly he’s back looking at a high profile fight. I think that Overeem absolutely destroys him though.
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Also, I don’t see how Fedor loses this. He’s probably faster than Hendo, and the fact that Hendo doesn’t doesn’t really clinch or take his opponents down bodes really well for Fedor. I personally think that Fedor takes it with ease, barring an Hbomb landing (I don’t think it does).
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