Brock Lesnar's Illness Puts UFC PPV Growth in Jeopardy
by Mike Fagan on May 13, 2011 10:00 AM EDT
in UFC Editorial
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The UFC has seen growth in annual pay-per-view buys every year since 2007. That trend is now in jeopardy following Brock Lesnar's decision to pull out of his fight with Junior dos Santos at UFC 131 with a second bout with diverticulitis, in addition to current injuries to champions Frankie Edgar, Jon Jones, and Cain Velasquez.
Here's how the UFC buys break down by year (data provided by various Dave Meltzer Yahoo! articles):
| Year | Events | Buys | Average |
| 2007 | 11 | 4.9M | 445,000 |
| 2008 | 12 | 5.1M | 425,000 |
| 2009 | 13 | 8M | 615,000 |
| 2010 | 16* | 9.1M | 568,750 |
* - These figures include the "Aldo vs. Faber" pay-per-view event.
The UFC has sold an estimated 2.6M pay-per-views so far in 2011, including UFC 129. That leaves another 6.5M buys needed to overtake 2010.
Should the UFC keep pace with the number of PPVs it produced last year, the company would need to average 600k buys per event.
The current schedule, however, is more likely to fall short of another 16 PPV events. The UFC has officially announced events up through the UFC show in Rio in late August. Unofficially, they are booked through UFC 137, tentatively scheduled for Liverpool, in mid-October.
Assuming one PPV show in both November and December, that leaves us with 10 more events in 2011. (I should note that the Liverpool show would take place a week after UFC 136, making it unlikely to be a PPV show. But for argument's sake, we'll stick with 10.)
Using that figure, the UFC would need to average roughly 660k buys per event, more than they've ever averaged in any calendar year. They would also have to do it without their biggest draw and three champions out of the five "big" weight classes out with injuries for extended periods during the year.
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They’re gonna have to try to be super-crafty. Use their oomph to build drama and hype into otherwise relatively meaningless fights.
"If I wanted to spend a half hour between two hairy legs I'd go to your mother's house." -Don Frye
by mburtoni on May 13, 2011 10:04 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
So… with Lesnar sick, and apparently nobody wants to watch GSP fight ever again anymore, who’s the best seller now?
I wish GSP would just embrace his style now
And talk shit.
Yes I am boreeng, because nobody can andle dis riddum beetches!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on May 13, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
“nobody wants to watch GSP fight ever again anymore”
That’s the opinion of keyboard warriors who probably represent less than 1% of the total fan base. Let’s wait for GSP’s next fight before announcing he’s no longer a draw. I suspect many people who buy GSP’s fights just wanna see him win. He has been fighting safe for a while now, it’s not something new and his popularity has not declined.
by Joe_Leduc on May 13, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I think he’s actually becoming a bigger draw. He’s starting to be that fighter people want to watch to see of he can keep dominating or to see if anyone is gonna beat him. Ive always been a huge GSP fan and IMO the only fights of his that I thought sucked were his last two. Doesnt mean Im gonna stop being a fan.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on May 13, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
not only that
his technique is getting crisper than ever as he becomes more complete. i don’t think GSP has plateaued as a fighter yet, and even though the only viable exiting fight for him is against Nick Diaz, he’s still someone people will pay to see.
by Victor Rodriguez on May 13, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I have to disagree.
Nothing against GSP, but his technique did not look crisper against Jake Shields, much the opposite. I know about the eye poke, but even before that he was using a very ugly overhand right I don’t recall ever seeing from him before and he looked stiffer than usual. Two fights back his jiu jitsu did not look too crisp against Dan Hardy. He did win both those fights easily and I won’t get into the merits of the style he used to get those wins. I’ll grant you the Koscheck fight. He did look amazing in that one.
I’m not saying GSP sucks (he doesn’t) nor that he’s finished as a draw (he isn’t) nor even that he’s reached his limits (I have no idea), but he hasn’t looked better than ever lately, no.
by PlutoCps on May 13, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
If yer including the WEC PPV in the 2010 numbers, it might make sense to include the potential Strikeforce PPV for 2011… it’s been pushed back from the July date that had been floating around, but still is possible before the end of the year.
Getting bent out of shape over a fight promoter lying is like getting upset that a hooker won't kiss you. It betrays a deep lack of understanding of the nature of the profession.
Chael Sonnen to the rescue
Make it happen, Dana.
.
Por isso eu tomo ópio / é um remédio / sou um convalescente do momento / moro no rés-do-chão do pensamento / e ver passar a vida faz-me tédio
at this point i'll watch Chael fight James Fucking Toney.
and if there’s anything i hate in MMA besides judging and that shitty intro rock for UFC events, its James Fucking Toney.
by Victor Rodriguez on May 13, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Ten more from now until the end of the year. 14-16 total depending on how they schedule things.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
ic
AT the beginning of the year dana white said they would do 31 shows this year, I have been counting and it doesnt seem like they are going to make it unless they come out strong at the end. I thought for sure they had a network deal and would have added 4 extra shows, Maybe they are saving it toward the end of the year during football season to help promote them?
They're snakebitten this year
A million+ selling Silva-GSP superfight would go a long way to making up the difference though.
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
Screw the casuals!
Every hardcore I talk to is far more excited for Carwin vs JDS!
This is just a speed bump in MMA growth. I work in IT and every time our company changes something, Rome is burning, but 2 weeks later everyone’s happy with or has come to realize that the changes weren’t such a big deal.
Even on BEradio yesterday, I was surprised how it’s discussed as an absolute catastrophe.
Yup I'd have to agree...
A lot of the guys at my gym were pretty pumped to hear that Carwin is now fighting JDS, myself included.
Lyoto Machida will literally kick your teeth out.
by tito (eight and oh) on May 13, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Same
I love this fight way more than BrockJDS.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on May 13, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Y’all are crazy.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
by Mike Fagan on May 13, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed. I can’t understand how people are this excited to be a guy that can’t last more than 3 minutes in the octogon without badly sucking air.
indeed
jds KO in the 2nd sounds like a lock.
http://fightdrinker.blogspot.com
by some schmuck in texas on May 13, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the absence of a mega-card on the horizon
adds to the worries of this being a less than desired year for the UFC.
However, a Rashad and Jon Jones match, if it were to happen, would in my humble opinion, without a shadow of a doubt, do atleast 1 million in PPV buys.
There is a great story there. Plus, they are two great athletes, former teammates, fighting in the most competitive division in UFC for the title.
And purely for entertainment purposes, if that card were also to have a Sonnen-Bisping fight after a stint on TUF by both men, it’s not even worth debating if that card will do more than 1 million PPV buys.
I noticed that there aren’t any big fights that people are clamoring about as far as main events. Momentum goes a long way, and seeing Jon Jones defend his Title sooner rather than later especially against Evans would have been a good fight.
Also, I am curious if having UFC PPVs so spread out changes anything. MMA fans have to wait a good month between PPVs, and the gap from UFC 127 to UFC 128 to UFC 129 had no UFC events like Fight Nights, UFC on Versus, or TUF FInales in between.
Check out the C&D Channel on YouTube for MMA reviews, predictions, analysis, and other MMA related content.
by chrisbboy82 on May 13, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I too had been wondering (without giving much thought as to the implications) about the sudden increase in the frequency of UFC events over the last few years. As you point out, the recent UFC PPVs had been well spread out.
It’s probably a good thing since my cursory analysis is that the more events there are, the more unreasonable the fans become in their demands for what each PPV should provide. When PPVs were few and far between, every card was appreciated for what it was worth. Looking at the disproportionate (if not unwarranted) criticism which GSP has received for his recent fight, I am not sure that is the case anymore.
However, they will probably stick with more as compared to less PPVs every year due to increased awareness of MMA and the recent StrikeForce and WEC acquisitions.
Getting the fighters to use twitter and other self-promotion media seems to indicate UFC is moving toward a WWE model where fans are supposed to identify more with fighters because of the personalities they project. It wouldn’t surprise me if they cultivate a “heel” vs. “face” thing, with guys like Sonnen, Bisping and Lesnar being the models of the sort of polarizing fighters who get people buying PPVs for more than the pleasure of seeing a good fight between talented fighters.
It might be a bit optimistic to expect any but the core fan base to care very much about fighters who average only one or two fights a year or who might be out of the sport entirely after an injury. Eventually the “casual” fan will probably burn out and stop investing emotionally. If Tom Brady goes down, the Patriots still play and the fans still watch. If Lesnar is finished, his fans are forced to look for someone else entirely to identify with. Seems a bit limiting to me, especially when major sports are available for free on TV and the top fights in MMA are ones you have to pay a good chunk of change to see.
by Scabby Knuckle on May 13, 2011 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
The rate of growth the UFC has been experiencing is really crazy. It does not surprise me that there will be a year or two that does not live up to expectations. They have to go from having guys like Chuck, Randy, Tito, possibly Brock, etc.. to building up guys like Cain, Edgar, Aldo, Cruz, Jones. That doesn’t happen over night. I think by the end of 2012/ early 2013 the UFC will have many more names established as solid draws and be able to really take advantage of the depth of their roster more effectively. To me, it just seems like the UFC loads up some cards and then just abandons others. If they fixed that and just made every card pretty solid, I think it would go a long way.
I think the UFC is running on branding alone right now.
People buy the UFC because it’s the UFC.
Maynard and Edgar aren’t really draws. GSP isn’t so great outside of Canada or own his own, especially after so many lackluster performances. Brock is probably gone for good and I get the sense he loses cred amoung fight fans the long her stays with it.
Anderson has his issues, and Cain is just starting out.
Very true....
Also, waiting in the wings after the purchase, we have Melendez, Diaz, and Ubereem to lend a hand.
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