Strikeforce Preview: 4 Burning Questions for 'Diaz vs. Daley'
by Matt Bishop on Apr 9, 2011 4:01 PM EDT
in Strikeforce Analysis
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Bloody Elbow's Matt Bishop sat down Saturday afternoon to answer four burning questions for tonight's Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley, one for each main card fight. Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley airs live at 10 p.m. ET/PT on Showtime.
1) Can Shinya Aoki be a factor in American MMA?
This is a real tough one because the only evidence we have of Aoki in America was the thrashing Gilbert Melendez gave him a year ago. The fact of the matter is this: We really won't have anymore evidence on this one if Aoki wins because he is being given an opponent in Lyle Beerbohm who is tailor made for him. Beerbohm likely won't be a big threat on the feet to Aoki and will play right into his strengths on the ground. If Aoki loses this fight, though, that's some real bad news and you'd have to seriously question what he'd be able to accomplish in the cage and in America going forward. A loss to Beerbohm would be absolutely devastating to Aoki's career. I think when this fight is done, if Aoki wins, the jury is still going to be out on his upward mobility in America but we should at least get a feel for where he stands.
Stay with us after the jump for more...
Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley coverage
2) Can Gegard Mousasi regain some of the traction he lost after losing the Strikeforce light-heavyweight title?
A year ago at this time, Gegard Mousasi was the next big thing in the world of mixed martial arts. Then he lost his title to Muhammed Lawal and spent the rest of 2010 competing in an absolutely worthless DREAM Light-Heavyweight Grand Prix, where he beat Jake O'Brien (who absolutely should not have been fighting) and Tatsuya Mizuno. At 30-3-1 in his career and still only 25-years old, Mousasi has a ton of time left, but needs to start fighting more relevant fights. He still is a special talent in my mind, but it's time for him to get going and really take fighting in Strikeforce seriously. This fight here against Keith Jardine will be a real interesting test to see where Mousasi's at. If he comes out and dominates, I'd like to see him in a big fight in the near future.
3) Can Tatsuya Kawajiri hang with Gilbert Melendez?
I want to see a competitive fight here, but I think Melendez is really going to roll. Think about this: Melendez, one of the best lightweights in the world, hasn't fought in 51 weeks. Fifty-one weeks! That makes me incredibly sad because he is, like Mousasi, a special talent. He's coming off dominant performances against Josh Thomson and Aoki and is really hitting his stride. Kawajiri is no pushover, don't get me wrong, but I think Melendez, with the camp he's been in (with Jake Shields, Nick Diaz and Nate Diaz all getting ready to go at the same time), is going to have a distinct advantage here. Kawajiri, to his credit, is coming off a very good win over Thomson, but I see Melendez neutralizing him for the most part, winning a decision.
4) Will Nick Diaz stand and trade with Paul Daley?
It probably wouldn't be the smartest thing to do, but I think he will. We've seen Diaz stand with Scott Smith (albeit a half-dead one) and K.J. Noons and have success. But as the old saying goes: If you play with fire for too long, you'll get burned. Things heated up yesterday at the weigh-in and I expect these two to get right down to business. Diaz really needs to frustrate Daley on the feet and take him out of his game. Then when Daley gets wild, he needs to step in and take him down. Diaz has a decided advantage on the ground and needs to make the most if it in this fight. With this being the new Strikeforce, every fight is taking on added importance. If Diaz comes up with a big win here, his stock will go up significantly. We'll see what he decides to do.
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Question #1
Is the big reason I’m happy they fed Beerbohm to Aoki. He needs time to get some experience in the cage that isn’t during a title fight, especially now that it looks like his future will be spent fighting in cages in American promotions.
Beerbohm is a guy that Aoki surpasses in all areas, including striking. Should be a good way for him to work on getting acclimated to the cage against a live body. It should go a long way to showing if Aoki’s skillset can ever translate well to American MMA.
that was most certainly not a thrashing
everything dana white says is a complete lie
by slantedwindows on Apr 9, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
running away from the grappling game and landing a few strikes after every missed shot attempt is hardly a thrashing. he played it safe.
everything dana white says is a complete lie
by slantedwindows on Apr 9, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
gif says it all
Aoki played it safe not melendez
by theworldismine on Apr 9, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
So did Yamasaki, unfortunately.
He’s a good ref, but when you’re temporarily stopping the fight to stand the fighters up, you gotta get in between them. Especially when one doesn’t speak English. That happened like, 3 times, Yamasaki would say “stop” but fail to step in just as Gil threw a dive-bomb right to Aoki’s grill.
el nino is awesome.
running away from the grappling game?
he shat on aoki’s gameplan and dominated him.
he played the rules, In Japan ....
he would have gotten kicked in the face when he sat at the back of Aoki’s guard.
Aoki never had that problem to deal with before in his life. In a real fight or in JMMA if someone sits at the back of the guard kick them in the face. In america you have to come up with a new plan.
it was a very smart plan for Gil, But he had no intention of going for a stoppage in that fight. He was focusing on the Rounds not the finish.
"True strength is not always shown through victory. Stand up, try again and display strength of heart." - Rickson Gracie
"Wanderlei eventually got to his feet and stalked Fujita like a Japanese octopus in an all-female prison." - Sean Baby Cracked.com
by the-gentle-way on Apr 9, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Uh, yeah
Three seconds out of a 25 minute snoozefest.
by William Wilson on Apr 9, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
or, the only interesting televised match that night
that event sucked balls. for real.
by Victor Rodriguez on Apr 9, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
the only thing that gif shows is Gil not listening to the Ref.
I remember that. Yamasaki said stop and then Gil jumped in.
That Gif makes no point.
"True strength is not always shown through victory. Stand up, try again and display strength of heart." - Rickson Gracie
"Wanderlei eventually got to his feet and stalked Fujita like a Japanese octopus in an all-female prison." - Sean Baby Cracked.com
by the-gentle-way on Apr 9, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yea its not like he outstruck him 132-18 while negating all 18 takedown attempts by Aoki...
Oh wait…
negating takedown attempts and landing shots that never really had him in danger is not a “thrashing.”
thrashing: action of the verb to thrash; a beating, especially a severe one.
everything dana white says is a complete lie
by slantedwindows on Apr 11, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
not sure why everyone thinks melendez vs kawajiri is such a mismatch?
1. their first fight was very close and i thought kawajiri won
2. melendez hasnt fought in a year
3. gilberts 2 best wins are aoki and thomson. when you beat aoki you make him look horrible, and kawajiri just handily beat thomson as well.
4. they are both fairly small lightweights. kawajiri does cut weight but is short for the class, while melendez used to fight at 145
not really sure why gilbert is now the 2nd coming of bj penn and kawajiri is just some guy who is worse at everything than him. this is a guy who mounted both JZ and thomson multiple times and actually didnt look too awful in a k1 fight against masato
because he “thrashed” aoki who was (wrongly) considered #1 at the time. you beat #1, then you MUST be #1. and if someone else is not #1, then #1 should be able to beat up everyone else.
everything dana white says is a complete lie
by slantedwindows on Apr 9, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
And then BJ "lost" to Edgar before this fight
which meant either Edgar’s really unconvincing win over a lethargic Penn made him #1 or Aoki got bumped from #2 to #1. Melendez was around 5-6 I think?
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
by pdl on Apr 9, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
If somebody calls it a mismatch is a completely stupid. Their first fight was a back and forth battle, really entertaining and competitive, but with Kawajiri getting the edge in my opinion (better and cleaner shots landed). Melendez has obviously evolved a lot, but so has Kawajiri, including his brief stint in K-1 bouts. They are pretty much the same kind of fighter and i expect an even and competitive fight, just like the first one.
by Carlos Estrada-Ibars Martínez on Apr 9, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Gegard is in a neutral/lose situaiton with me in this fight
I’ll give him credit for taking a new opponent on short notice, but only way the Gegard fight interests me is if he loses. No disrespect to Keith, but at this point in his career, beating him isn’t a step forward for Gegard IMO… hopefully after this fight Gegard will start taking bigger strides in his career in the states, he’s an exciting fighter.
great card with alot of questions that need to be answered
its nice to see that in strikeforce finally, relevancy
Answers:
1) Yes, a factor, but not a top guy.
2) KO’ing Jardine does nothing for hum.
3) No
4) Only long enough to secure a takedown
4) Only long enough to secure a takedown
How do you see Diaz getting this to the floor? Shots from distance? Clinch?
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 9, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
And while he's answering what excellent question
I’ll add:
What fights are people watching that makes them think that the first thing Nick Diaz does against a striker is pay it safe and dive for a take down?
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
by Dave Strummer on Apr 9, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder how many fights you’d have to go to see Diaz trying a takedown early in the fight… probably back around EliteXC or maybe even all the way back to his early UFC fights.
Diaz does has a tendency to work a bit of a clinch game against strikers. Did it against Zaromskis, did it against Cyborg. Pinned them against the fence and went to work with knees to the thigh and the body.
But yeah takedowns are not his game.
Nick will quickly realize that he’s not going to outstrike Daley, and he’ll aim to get the fight to the ground. This is truth.
I think his double stands as much chance as ..
politely asking him to go to the mat.
"True strength is not always shown through victory. Stand up, try again and display strength of heart." - Rickson Gracie
"Wanderlei eventually got to his feet and stalked Fujita like a Japanese octopus in an all-female prison." - Sean Baby Cracked.com
by the-gentle-way on Apr 9, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
i wonder which fights
people are watching in which Daley’s wrestling ‘advantage’ allowed him to take dudes down at will. i keep hearing him say how much better his wrestling is than Diaz’. i don’t see it in him, and i don’t see his wrestling however good it may be doing him any favors against Diaz when Nick is a killer off his back.
by Victor Rodriguez on Apr 9, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
huh?
I’ve not seen a single mention of Daley’s wrestling as a positive. Am I missing something here?
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 9, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
he's been mentioning it in interviews lately,
and i believe Frank McNeil said something about it on MMA Live.
it’s bullshit, really.
by Victor Rodriguez on Apr 9, 2011 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Fanklin McNeil...
Said that Diaz will submit him because he’s better on the ground, but he, like many who say this, didn’t mention how Diaz is going to get it to the ground. Is there a more ill-informed man who gets paid to cover MMA than that man? I think not…
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 9, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
hey, at least he's better than Jake Rossen
with the exception of Jon Anik, ESPN is fucking clueless as far as MMA goes..
by Victor Rodriguez on Apr 9, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that even Anik pretends to know more than he actually does...
Rossen’s gone, huh? Last I heard of him he was “navigating some issues” and he never came back. You have any idea where he went?
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 9, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
McNeil's a joke
I’m from New Jersey and I can’t stand his moronic biases. oh and he knows not a thing about the sport of MMA. He’s an opportunist who never got to be Merchant, Lampley, or Max Kellerman for ESPN so he jumped on the MMA bandwagon so he could get himself on the TV.
"There are no atheists in foxholes" isn't an argument against atheism, it's an argument against foxholes. ~James Morrow
"There is a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot."-Steven Wright
by F'n Clownshoes on Apr 9, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate the man...
but his embrace of the sport instead of curmudgeonly rejection was a smart move for him. The fact that he gets regular face time on their MMA t.v. show and works the beat is insane. And I just have to say it again: Jon Anik blows, too. He never has an original thought and refuses to take a stand on anything for any reason at anytime.
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 9, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody credible thinks Daley has a wrestling advantage
In interviews, he has (rightly) criticized Nick’s wrestling as a way of suggesting that Nick would have a hard time putting him on his back with any consistency, which has proven to be the best way of neutralizing Daley. The only way Daley willingly goes to the ground in this fight is if he hurts Nick bad standing and thinks he can finish him off with a couple hellbows.
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
by Dave Strummer on Apr 9, 2011 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Can someone tell me why Jake O'Brien absolutely should not have been fighting?
Is he at a special health risk or something?
www.instrength.com
He also looked like he hadn't slept in days and just in general looked like crap
I know Ricco Rodriguez was backstage (he was flown in for a fight with Overeem that never ended up happening) and they thought about using him but just decided to go with Jake anyway. He is lucky Mousasi didn’t just stuff his takedown and knock him out.
Sometimes when they bring in guys at the last minute for JMMA they are lucky and they have been training regularly anyway; and sometimes you get guys like Jake O’Brien who are out of shape, but can’t really turn down a paycheck from a big show (if he even got paid).
I keep seeing writers discussing....
whether or not Diaz will take Daley down, but none of them are explaining exactly how he’s going to do that. We know he can’t wrestle and that he doesn’t have the kind of punches that can floor someone, so that leaves the clinch. In order to get to the clinch, Diaz will have to sacrifice the one true advantage he has on the feet, which is range. He’d have to wade in and place himself in direct range of Daley’s greatest weapons- his hooks, and even then, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to take Daley down. I simply cannot envision any way that Diaz gets this to the floor, but he’s totally capable of outpointing Daley on the feet … either way, I cannot wait to see this scrap.
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 9, 2011 3:20 PM EDT reply actions
i agree with your argument
but i will mention 2 things worth noting.
1. diaz can pull guard. not sure how effective he can be with this because daley is really good at doing the super shrug “get off me bitch im stronger than you” move, but if they can clinch up and diaz pulls guard hes in a pretty good place.
2. one thing that occasionally pops up when looking at someones fight iq is what they do when they drop someone. when cain dropped nog, he ran around to side control and pounded him out. when shogun dropped machida, he landed in mount and finished. when daley dropped dustin hazelett (who also has a fairly dangerous guard), he was able to get the finish, but kinda flailed into his guard and punched from there. diaz has been dropped before but is insanely hard to finish, if something like this happened, i wouldnt be surprised to see daley flail into another dangerous guard but pay for it
To #2:
I’ve said this before, but I really think that there needs to be a sea-change in MMA with the way that fighters deal with dropping someone. Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should follow dudes to the ground when they get knocked down. While the lack of an 8 count makes it dangerous to be the one who got knocked down, it also holds an advantage for the upright fighter. I feel like often the downed fighters best chance of recovery is to be able to velcro on to the top player- a la Shields-Hendo rd. 1. If you hold an advantage on the feet or have deficiencies on the ground, why not make the downed fighter get back up (unless you’ve been getting starched the entire fight and opportunism is a necessity)? If he makes it back to his feet in a timely manner, he’s not recovered yet and is at great risk of getting hit again, and if he can’t get back up quick enough, then the ref will stop it. If Daley knocks Diaz down early, I really think he needs to back out and get Diaz on his feet again.
And good point with the guard pulling comment- but still, he’d need to make it through the short power punches of Daley to get to a guard pulling position. If there’s anyone who has the chin to do it, it’s Nick of course.
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 9, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I have a feeling that if Daley were to drop Diaz, unless he REALLY rocks him, he won’t follow him down. Daley know’s he can’t grapple, and would have no real reason to follow him down, especially against Diaz who is a guy who will really put Daley in no danger while on the feet.
If I were Daley, I’d force him to stand up, even if it means he can recover a bit, and hope that I will continue knocking him around.
Or he could apply the Mir Cooking Rule.
Beat on him over and over again, and no matter what happens you keep it standing, even if you get a knockdown.
Repeat until the dude falls down and the back of his head bounces on the mat, then you can follow him to the ground.
let's all remember
that Nick loves to beat dudes at their own game and may very well not even go to the ground at all. remember how the matches with Noons and Smith went. the last match only went down when Cyborg ran out of options and went to for the takedown. Nick made him pay for his insolence.
by Victor Rodriguez on Apr 9, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
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