UFC 129 Gambling Spotlight: Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields
by Mike Fagan on Apr 29, 2011 6:00 PM EDT
in UFC Gambling
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Jake Shields is not undervalued. Underrated? Maybe. Overlooked? Probably and rightfully. (GSP won't do it, but I'm looking forward to the Anderson Silva fight.) But he's not undervalued -- not by fans, not by the media, and not by the betting public.
Shields has one realistic avenue to victory: submitting Georges St. Pierre. I'd go so far as to say that he has the proverbial "grappler's chance" in this fight. In a straight grappling match, it's fair to say that Shields is more talented than St. Pierre, if not the outright favorite.
But this isn't submission wrestling, and Jake Shields is not a more talented fighter than Georges St. Pierre.
For Shields to push the fight to the floor and submit St. Pierre, he'll need to overcome a mountain of obstacles normally reserved for the bumbling hero in a romantic comedy.
First, he'll have to contend with St. Pierre's ability to control distance. A four-inch reach advantage in his favor will accentuate GSP's abilities.
If Shields figures out a way to manage distance in his favor, he'll have to wade through St. Pierre's superior kickboxing. Shields striking isn't good. It's downright bad for the level of opposition that he's about to stand in front of on Saturday night. Just take a look at this striking during this open workout. If you can't look good hitting the pads, you aren't going to look good trading with Georges St. Pierre.
Should he figure out the distance, should he strike with enough effectiveness, he's now entered level three: taking Georges St. Pierre down. It's a feat that's been managed two times since St. Pierre's loss to Matt Serra at UFC 69, both times by Josh Koscheck. In 23 fights recorded by FightMetric, St. Pierre opponents have completed eight takedowns (two by Ivan Menjivar in GSP's first pro fight). That's less than half a takedown per 15 minutes of cage time.
Even on the floor, though, Shields isn't the submission savant that he's been made out to be. Here's the list of fighters Jake Shields has submitted in the last five years: Robbie Lawler, Paul Daley, Nick Thompson, Mike Pyle, Ido Pariente, Ray Steinbeiss. And here's a sampling of fights who have avoided the submission in that same time frame: Martin Kampmann, Dan Henderson, Jason Miller, Carlos Condit, Yushin Okami, Dave Menne. Do you see the pattern here?
Submitting St. Pierre will have to involve a moment of absolute brilliance on the part of Shields or a shocking display of ineptness on the part of St. Pierre (or the always haunting specter of injury).
Bodog dropped its St. Pierre line to -360 yesterday before bumping it back up to -500 today. You can still find him below -400 at 5Dimes and Pinnacle (for those outside the U.S.), which I love, and there are varying lines between -400 and -500 at various books.
In a line, St. Pierre is far superior than Shields in almost every aspect of MMA, and we're going to see that played out tomorrow night.
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GSP's submission game isn't as great as people make it out to be either...
GSP’s has a whopping 2 submissions in the UFC. Matt Hughes nearly 3 1/2 years ago and Trigg in 05.
I would take Shields submission game over GSP in a heartbeat. I don’t think it will matter because GSP won’t let it get to the ground. Get ready for another 5 round decision guys.
i disagree
grappling competitions are heavily based on positional wrestling. if you cant actually finish your opponent, all of your actual points come from takedowns, guard passes, dominant positions and sweeps. for attempting submissions you receive mere advantages which only act as a tiebreaker.
i think if gsp and shields were in a grappling match, gsp would probably win on points in a very very very lame fight. he has a very good base and would avoid subs, and would probably score 2 points at some point during the fight. or theres a chance jake pulled guard, attempted a bad sub and won 0-0 with 1 advantage. either way i doubt he would finish gsp in a no gi grappling match
well i misread what you wrote and cant delete
shields submissions are better than gsps, you are correct. he has a very sick guillotine from all positions, and a good armbar from mount (although he failed vs paul daley with it once)
i went off on a huge tangent for no reason :)
Was confused for a sec
I agree GSP has excellent positional control and some of the best guard passes in all of MMA. Nothing wrong with not being a submission guru. I prefer a positional style in my own BJJ as well. Im just not great at throwing up subs like some guys are.
People don’t really talk about GSP’s submission game the way they do Shields though. GSP has a solid game, nothing worth writing home about, but enough to ensure that he probably won’t get caught in anything.
People talk a lot about Shields’ submission game a lot. And it is good, but it’s overrated for the most part, especially in the context of it being dangerous to GSP.
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What where the grappling matches for this expo?
by malo on Apr 29, 2011 6:28 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Mike,
Do you buy into the idea that GSP has to keep this standing to win? I’m hard pressed to imagine Jake doing much of anything from bottom position.
I don’t know about Mike, but personally, I think GSP can win if he’s in top position. I doubt Jake will pose too much of a threat off his back.
especially in later rounds
if gsp takes him down in rd 4 or 5, him being super slippery would make it very difficult for sheilds to grab hold of from the bottom.
GSP is fine from the top. Shields’ sub game off his back is not nearly as strong as on top.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Apr 29, 2011 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I think he can take Shields down and control from top. His best position is going to be standing, though.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
This fight is NOTHING like that one
Let the fighters fight, let the referees ref, but dear God, don't let the judges judge.
by halitosis on Apr 29, 2011 10:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
do you think they would give an immediate rematch to gsp if he loses ?
considering he hasnt lost a round in over 30 rds, and is consensus no. 2 p4p in the world ?
Definately, he is such a huge draw
Let the fighters fight, let the referees ref, but dear God, don't let the judges judge.
by halitosis on Apr 29, 2011 10:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
hmmmm
St. Pierre is far superior than Shields in almost every aspect of MMA, and we’re going to see that played out tomorrow night.
If not…….will you post a vid of you eating crow?
Learn JiuJitsu, it's fun.
"So... does New England ever use their picks?
Or do they just use them to accumulate more picks?" --farmer cam
Sub isn't the only way Jake could win
He could also l’n’p his way to a decision. It wouldn’t be easy and it’s not my prediction but i honestly think it’s his best chance, don’t see him tapping GSP in a million years
"Anyone who enjoys watching sport on television is an imbecile; a dangle-mouthed, cud-chewing, salivating ding-dong with a brain full of dim piss, blobbing out in front of a box watching a grunting thicko knock a ball round a field while their own sad carcass gently coagulates into a wobbling mass of beer and fat and thick white heart-attack gravy" - Charlie Brooker
His cardio will only last him to round 3
And that’s on a good night.
Let the fighters fight, let the referees ref, but dear God, don't let the judges judge.
by halitosis on Apr 29, 2011 10:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
In MMA, no Jake hasn’t subbed many, but I’m one to subscribe to accomplishments in martial arts, not just MMA, and therefore can’t shake Jake’s submission over Vinny Magalhaes off my mind…
by umbalata on Apr 29, 2011 7:24 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
finally a post that says exactly what i have been saying. shields’s subs have come either1, in his early carreer against low level talent, or 2, against fighters who don’t really have sub defence. in fights against upper level fighters , he has been on the lucky end of at least 3 dec, okami( the whole crowd booed . because the first2rds were razor close and the 3rd rd okami beat him up), condit ( same thing the whole fight was each other reversing each other but again condit was the only one doing any damage, plus he was young and raw then i think carlos was only 20 -21) 3, kampman , ( shields got a split dec ,but alot of people myself included think kampman again should of won ,he is the only one who did damage). then we have the mayhenm mlliar fight, both of them put each other in trouble but the only one stuck in a sub and needing to be saved by the bell was shields. his performance against hendo while good , he still couldn’t do in 5 rds what anderson silva did in 2 rds and that is sub hendo. gsp only loses this fight if he dforgets he is fighting. i actually think gsp is going to get a finish and show that the story hasn’t changed being a champ in other smaller shows means nothing when fighting ufc calber fighters.
by robbyedRobby Edwards on Apr 29, 2011 9:45 PM EDT reply actions
Seeing Shields’ style of fighting being opposed to GSP, his lack of standup, and being at 170 which may hinder his cardio and energy instead of being at 185, I just can’t see this fight being any different than Koscheck vs GSP or Fitch vs GSP. There are arguments out there that Shields is a better wrestler in MMA than Koscheck or Fitch, but really, what real evidence is there for that? He took down Henderson at 185, but does that mean that Fitch or Koscheck wouldn’t be able to do that fighting the Henderson that Shields fought? Honestly, I would be surprised if this fight is that competitive and not one-sided.
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