UFC 129 Odds: St. Pierre vs. Shields Betting Odds
by Nick Thomas on Apr 28, 2011 8:00 PM EDT
in UFC News
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Are up - Two huge title fights and a battle between legends - UFC 129 will bring this stacked fight card to the biggest audience ever assembled to watch on April 30th. Check out the betting odds for the welterweight title fight between current champion Georges St. Pierre and top contender Jake Shields, Mark Hominick challenges Jose Aldo for the featherweight championship, and Randy Couture takes on Lyoto Machida. Apr 30th, live on Pay-per-view from Toronto, Ontario, Canada:
Main card:
Georges St. Pierre (21-2) -500 vs. Jake Shields (26-4-1) +335 [WW title]
Jose Aldo (18-1) -500 vs. Mark Hominick (20-8) +365 [FW title]
Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5) -130 vs. Jason Brilz (18-3-1) +115
Randy Couture (19-10) +285 vs. Lyoto Machida (16-2) -350
Mark Bocek (9-3) +115 vs. Ben Henderson (12-2) -140
On Spike:
Nate Diaz (13-6) +105 vs. Rory MacDonald (10-1) -120
Sean Pierson (11-4) +170 vs. Jake Ellenberger (23-5) -200
On Facebook:
Claude Patrick (13-1) -175 vs. Daniel Roberts (12-1) +155
Ivan Menjivar (21-8) -155 vs. Charlie Valencia (12-6) +135
Jason MacDonald (24-14) +130 vs. Ryan Jensen (15-7) -150
John Makdessi (8-0) -175 vs. Kyle Watson (13-6-1) +155
Yves Jabouin (15-6) -180 vs. Pablo Garza (10-1) +155
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Getting to see all the fights is pretty awesome.
by Tats16 on Apr 28, 2011 8:04 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
I'm not a gambler...
but isn’t Hominick at +365 a good “value?” Am I using that term correctly for betting?
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 28, 2011 8:11 PM EDT reply actions
I really don't understand...
People thinking Hominick has a shot. All of this talk about him being a great striker seems unwarranted to me. He just, he’s never beaten anybody.
by TrueTillDeath on Apr 28, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
The countdown show painted Yves as a top player in the sport at the time, which was in 2006. He was coming off a loss, and was in the middle of a 1-6 slide. And, he won by submission. So, the fight doesn’t prove his stand up skills to me.
I’m not buying Hominick as a legit contender, because he’s never beaten anybody. Well, aside for Leonard Garcia or George Roop.
by TrueTillDeath on Apr 28, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Both of which are already overrated strikers
Let the fighters fight, let the referees ref, but dear God, don't let the judges judge.
by halitosis on Apr 28, 2011 8:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yves Edwards and Yves Jabouin- he wasn’t blown out of the water in those fights (and he withstood a ferocious few minutes against Jabouin) and I think that he has the prowess to hang in there with Aldo. I think Aldo’s gonna win, but Hominick’s a tougher guy than you’re giving him credit for and the bottom line is that we still don’t know just how good Aldo is because of the lack of quality competition at 145.
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 28, 2011 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Wonder if Aldo is thinking about going for a takedown.
I mean he could probably beat Mark on the feet, but I think given his credentials he could almost certainly beat him on the mat.
"Unless you can’t think of something intelligent to say, don’t reply and make the world as dumb as you are appearing to be." - mabel4life
by lowellthehammer on Apr 28, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand not wanting to tout Aldo as unbeatable.
I really do. He’s not proven enough yet.
But the bottom line is, I don’t think Mark Hominick has show anything that would indicate him even being in the top 8 in the division. He has lost to every “top” opponent he’s faced. And has never shown this “Killer Technical Standup” the UFC has everybody talking about.
I honestly think he is a showcase opponent for Aldo. I really do.
by TrueTillDeath on Apr 28, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
He got beaten by Hioki twice.
Once on the ground, once standing. I’ve seen no evidence of his ground game improving. His kickboxing is a very Shawn Tompkins style, which is to say decent fundamentals but relying too much on habit and stale combinations without show stopping power to support it.
Aldo’s striking isn’t as superlative as many make it out to be, but his power sure is. His ground game isn’t super well tested but his top game against Urijah was impressive.
I don’t think Aldo is an unbeatable destroyer, but I don’t see how Hominick will be the guy to prove it.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
by pdl on Apr 28, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Like I said, I think that Aldo’s going to win, but I just think that Hominick’s tougher than people are giving him credit for-he’s never been stopped with strikes. I think that he has better than decent fundamentals but agree with the rest of your assessment. He has the tools to expose some holes in Aldo’s stand-up, but not the power to really make him pay. I can see Aldo dropping him before I can see Hominick exploiting said holes for 25 minutes.
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 28, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh
people though Mike Brown was tough at the time too. And Faber, who is tough, but he was completely dominate.
Nothing about Hominick tells me that he’s tougher than Faber.
by Roaringblood on Apr 28, 2011 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing about Hominick tells me that he’s tougher than Faber.
Not even the lack of cornrows?
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 28, 2011 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
we have...
much different definitions of tough, then. Faber’s are the most un-tough cornrows of all time.
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 28, 2011 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t stand wearing a hat, let along having my hair tied down tight on my scalp. that’s tough.
by Roaringblood on Apr 28, 2011 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, he just doesn't have the tools to finish Aldo
and Aldo has the ability to finish within the first 20 minutes of a fight (I think he was gassed in the 5th against Urijah) with his right hand, right knee, or a submission. Hard to pick against the guy who has so many more ways to win than decision.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Aldo hasn't been proven,
but nobody’s proven that they can handle him. Call me an optimist, but I will continue to think of him as a killing machine until someone slows him down.
Tidbit: Anderson Silva said that Aldo is better than him.
I'll pick Florian over Aldo if the weight cut doesn't kill him.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Yup
but I’m waiting to see how he does after his first cut
Conducting an experiment on knocking people out in particular ways would be unethical.
That’s a great fight- I really hope it happens.
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 28, 2011 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm a huge Aldo fan....
and I want him to be a destroyer, but it’s just too early to know for sure.
by John Danaher's Hair on Apr 28, 2011 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Anderson says all sorts of nonsense.
That doesn’t make it the least bit true.
by TrueTillDeath on Apr 28, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
can't rec that enough
I consider myself a softcore fan.
^^^ No kidding...
I cannot take ANYTHING that Andy says as gospel. He’s just too full of crap for me.
by Atomic Salmon on Apr 29, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Bocek should earn people some good money
He will beat Bendo.
"If I had a dollar for every brain you don't have, I'd have one dollar." - Squidward Tentacles
Bocek is a great bet, he should be a favorite entering this.
Bocek went live and death in a close decision to Jim Miller. Henderson went life and death in a close decision to Cerrone and Pettis. One of those names means something…
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
It’s worth remembering that Bendo trounced Cerrone in the rematch.
Bendy Henderson would probably lose out in the grappling exchanges; Bocek’s ground game is par excellence. On the feet, though, it’s another story.
The difference standing: Bocek is unremarkable and Bendo is mediocre(ish).
Not sure there’s any area I’d give Bendo a huge advantage in, not to mention his weight cutting is problematic, his cardio is poor, and he’s facing the dreaded “octagon jitters” in his opponent’s home town. Bocek as an underdog is an awesome play.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Do you think Bendo will end up out of the UFC within 2-3 fights?
"If I had a dollar for every brain you don't have, I'd have one dollar." - Squidward Tentacles
by SSreporters on Apr 29, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
No, but he could be if they wanted him out.
They’ll coddle him like a TUFer. Think Joe Stevenson’s latest streak, Mac Danzig’s run, or Amir Sadollah. If they give him challenging matches like they’ve been giving to Akiyama, he’s out in a heartbeat. Or like the run they tried to give Paulo Thiago of Koscheck, Fitch, and Alves in a row. It’s all in Joe Silva’s court, but I expect favorable matchmaking to keep him alive.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Parlay
GSP/ALDO/MACHIDA/BOCEK/ELLENBERGER/BRILZ ftw.. easy money!
to be on the safe side I did the same with Bendo in there as well.
You bet against yourself?
"You should work for 15 minutes to knock your opponent out, submit him, or improve your position to give yourself the best chance of doing either." - Dan Hardy
My crazy dog pick of the week:
Couture. I don’t know why, but I’m usually right. Of course, I’ll be wrong about every other fight.
Usually...
If I saw that somebody had a Cotoure, Hominick, Shields parlay I would think that was smart gambling. But you look at who they’re fighting and well… WHOOF!
by ssstute89 on Apr 28, 2011 8:41 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Cotoure has proven to be the biggest live dog in the history of the sport. Only a fool would count him out.
by TrueTillDeath on Apr 28, 2011 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
That has already been factored into the odds. Don’t let visions of him beating up on the corpse of Mark Coleman fool you. This is a terrible match-up for him and I’d be very surprised if he isn’t finished.
"You should work for 15 minutes to knock your opponent out, submit him, or improve your position to give yourself the best chance of doing either." - Dan Hardy
I’m starting to think the Couture – Machida and GSP – Shields fights will look oddly similar.
One fighter coming forward trying to grab & clinch & get it done and the other being all “Get the fuck off of me! Eat fists! Stay back! Eat more fists!”
by Pyrgz Krum on Apr 28, 2011 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Bocek and Jason MacDonald are steals at those prices.
Roberts has potential for an upset, but much as I like the kid and his ultra-aggressive grappling I think Patrick is just going to beat him on fundamentals.
"Unless you can’t think of something intelligent to say, don’t reply and make the world as dumb as you are appearing to be." - mabel4life
by lowellthehammer on Apr 28, 2011 9:03 PM EDT reply actions
Must be money coming in on the favorites
It looks like the lines on the underdogs in the main card fights have changed since the beginning of the week. Anyone wanting to bet the underdogs might want to wait until closer to fight time and see if they’re giving even better prices on them. Couture might end up +300 and Shields might go at +350 if the books have to move the line to get action on both sides of the prop. I’m not saying to bet them, but if anyone is, there’s still plenty of time to get down and I’m guessing the payoff will be bigger for the late players.
aldo vs hominick
Is Minnie silva vs Minnie GSP
by buc cow on Apr 29, 2011 7:59 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Except of course GSP is way better than that but ya. You know
by buc cow on Apr 29, 2011 8:05 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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