FightMetric Research Contest Volume 2: Age

by Mike Fagan on Apr 12, 2011 1:28 PM EDT in MMA Statistics

DALLAS TX - FEBRUARY 04: MMA champion Randy Couture attends the "ZigTech Cowboy Up Challenge" hosted by Reebok as MMA champion Randy Couture rides a mechanical bull on February 4 2011 in Dallas Texas. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Thanks to all the great contributions in the first research challenge, FightMetric and Bloody Elbow are happy to continue the project on another topic. The research done by the members of the Bloody Elbow community on the topic of reach helped raise the level of discussion around MMA and answer a fundamental question about the sport. We look forward to seeing the answers to this question:

Which is better, youth or experience?

This question becomes all the more interesting every time Randy Couture continues his extraordinary career at close to 50 years old. At UFC 129, he faces yet another opponent more than a decade his junior. But does a difference in age have an effect on fight outcomes? Do older fighters suffer in their performance or does their extra expererience give them an advantage over younger fighters?

The provided spreadsheet contains information for more than 2600 fights from all over the world. These fights come from UFC, PRIDE, Strikeforce, and many other organizations. In the first two columns, the two fighters' ages are expressed as their number of days old at the time of the fight. In this way, you can examine the absolute effect of age and the relative effect of the two fighters compared to each other. We've also included the method of victory in the fight (draws and No Contests are not included) and the total length of the fight. Do longer fights favor the young or the old?

Like last time, we're asking you to look at the data, do some analysis, and write-up your conclusions in a FanPost (make sure to put the words "Research Challenge" somewhere in the title of the FanPost). The most compelling entry will be selected as the winner and promoted to the front page.

Good luck and happy data hunting!

FightMetric Research Contest Volume 1: Reach

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Strategery

Did I completely miss the entries from the 1st one? I was curious on the results

They made a video game about Yakuzas. It’s called Yakuza. And it’s about Yakuza
gocyborg.com

by Krimson on Apr 12, 2011 1:24 PM EDT reply actions

I updated the first post with the winner and bumped it back to the top. It’s possible you just missed it.

I linked the first post in this one.

Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13

by Mike Fagan on Apr 12, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Mike - How do I post charts?

I’ve tried (and failed) to post my analytical results because I can’t figure out how to insert charts from my own computer. Pasting them in just leaves na empty block, and the URL link to my hard drive doesn’t work.

What’s the trick? I used the “contact us” link asking this question – but no response. Clearly others have figured it out…

by DecisionScientist on Apr 19, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

You can do a search on the site by article name, Research Challenge, I think

by Arca MMA on Apr 13, 2011 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions

on the topic of youth vs experience

has anyone else read that big nog said after the okami fight anderson is moving up to LHW?

Jonny Bench called.

by Sterling Archer on Apr 12, 2011 2:01 PM EDT reply actions

Not much experience in the data set...

I like this article series a lot, but this data set would be much more interesting with the winner and loser’s number of fights (or, even better, minutes spent in the cage) provided as well. As it is, age and experience aren’t always positively correlated (see: Matt Mitrione, Stefan Struve).

by skeebop on Apr 12, 2011 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Was thinking this.

"Unless you can’t think of something intelligent to say, don’t reply and make the world as dumb as you are appearing to be." - mabel4life

by lowellthehammer on Apr 12, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree

We can’t get any info on ‘experience’ from this data set… only age.

by KyleAskine on Apr 12, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

In addition to the fighters’ W-L records and minutes spent in the cage, I’d like to see weight classes added to the data as well. I suspect there are some interesting correlations between weight class and the effect age has on a fighter.

As mentioned below, length of professional fighting career would be another useful data point to work with.

Finally, although I know it’s hard to define and to gather, information on ethnicity would also provide some very interesting possibilities for analysis.

"I want to tell me what you see, let's go ahead and see by in the fight, what you saw, in the ring." - Tito Ortiz

by CasualMMAFan on Apr 12, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I wish I had more experience in Open Office’s free version of excel. I know the kinds of things I would like to do with this data but don’t really know how to make them happen.

by Confucius on Apr 12, 2011 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

Oooo tempting..

Considering ages are readily available and I probably have the best MMA database in existence.

Creator of the FightMatrix rating system [http://www.fightmatrix.com].

by JCS_FM on Apr 12, 2011 3:12 PM EDT reply actions

More than happy to work with the data provided,

but I do agree that some additional data would be significantly more helpful in answering the questions posed.

As has been mentioned, the age figure doesn’t really reflect experience at all (I think cage time in minutes was a great suggestion).

Additionally, I think “MMA age” (the number of days since the fighter’s first pro bout, I suppose) would be equally, if not more, interesting/relevant to examine. Randy and Nog immediately spring to mind as candidates that would be better represented in this way: everyone is shocked that Randy even survives his fights nowadays, but he didn’t start fighting until his mid 30s. Likewise, many are shocked to discover that Grandpa Nogueira is only 34, but his career began when he was just 23, and there are many young yet shopworn fighters that started even earlier.

Just food for thought— there’s still plenty of angles from which to approach the provided data.

by PistonHyundai on Apr 12, 2011 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs

Question

Can external data be used for these contests?

Creator of the FightMatrix rating system [http://www.fightmatrix.com].

by JCS_FM on Apr 12, 2011 3:24 PM EDT reply actions

i am not doing any super-duper-analysis, but from what i see so far on the spreadsheet:
- avg winner age 28.7y vs 29.8y avg loser age (winners having a smaller deviation too)
- younger fighter winning 57% of time
- when younger wins, they do it more than avg by ko-tko or stoppage
- when older wins, they do it more than avg by sub and dec

sorry, did not find anything surprising there, just my 2 cents… let’s wait for the stats experts…

by gabriezim on Apr 12, 2011 3:41 PM EDT reply actions

To expand on this slightly, my initial analysis shows a correlation between winning percentage of the older fighters and the age difference in the individual fights. As the age gap increases, the older fighter loses significantly more often. Not particularly surprising.

I was interested by two things though.

1) An age gap of as little as two years can swing the winning percentage to 56/44 in favor of the younger fighter.

2) My initial impression is that the effect of age gap on winning percentage levels off in two different age groups. The older fighter has the same chance of winning (44%) if they are anywhere from 2-6 years older than the other fighter. A similar effect is seen if they are 7-10 years older (34% chance of winning).

by ricker2005 on Apr 12, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

The Youth Advantage

Summary of Big Takeaways:

1. Age Does Influence Win Percentage

Fighters improve win rates in early twenties, climbing from 50% at 21 and peaking at 60% at age 24
The Youth Advantage falls back to an even 50% win rate by age 31
The win rate of older fighters continues to fall throughout the late 30’s into the 40-50% range

2. Age Differential Is More Important Than Just Age

Win percentages rise consistently with increasing age differentials for younger fighters
Being younger by only 1-6 years is a small advantage (50-55% win rate)
Age differentials of 7-12 years give the younger fighter a more significant advantage (60-70% win rate)
Age differentials of 13+ years give the younger fighter a huge advantage (70-85% win rate)

3. Older Fighters Get Finished More, Especially by Strikes

Age doesn’t impact how fighters win, but it does impact how they lose
Older fighters get finished more often when they lose, with an overall finish rate of ~60% at age 28, climbing to >75% at age 38; as fighters age there is not a similar trend in their winning performances
Age 30 appears to be the turning point in increasing finishes
The big difference is KO/TKO/Stoppage finishes, which jump to ~40% for fighters in their 30’s compared to only ~30% for fighters in their 20’s
Age differential also has an effect on how fights end; there is an increase in finishes with greater age differential, which is tied to the fact that for large differentials, one fighter is likely in their mid-30’s and more likely to get finished by strikes, consistent with findings above

Now how do I post my awesome charts that show all these results more vividly?

by DecisionScientist on Apr 14, 2011 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs