FanPost

JKell's High Posts: Betting Odds' Accuracy

whats up guys.  its me, jkell -  the mma-loving and caps lock-fearing stoner/college student who occasionally posts completely incoherent fanposts on BE.  and - spoiler alert - i'm baked as shit again.

yeah so 'jkell's high posts.' i always read milk's drunken rant of the week and love it, so i'm ripping off his idea.  just high not drunk.  honestly i have no idea how you have the patience to write a fanpost when you're drunk.  i get pretty messed up 3-4 times a week (yep, remember college?) and i dont think i could do it once.  high is cool tho.  i like chillin in my zone on BE and sometimes even post my thoughts.  i think i have pretty good ideas sometimes.  shits clearer yo, i'm telling you.

anywho, i just read the betting lines on the nogueira-davis and johnson-hardy fights on saturday and just thought to myself - how generally accurate are those lines?  so i'm lazy as shit right now and am definitely not gonna do all the research and actually figure it out intelligently, but for the most part, i feel like the bookies get it pretty solid almost every time.  i mean, i always look at the odds, and i cant recall too many times (remember i'm high) where i've checked them out and completely disagreed with them.  except for fedor...

 - - - - OH SHIT FEDOR HATER = NOT TRUE MMA FAN - - - -

thats right, i used caps, crazy huh?

first of all, people who do that stuff, please chill out. but let me explain myself: i am a college kid, and i have only been an mma fan for around 6 years, and a hardcore mma fan for only 3-4 or so. i never saw him in his pride days. dont get me wrong, i've seen all the replays, but there's definitely a difference from seeing a fighter in retrospect than live.  he didnt have that aura of invincibility that i probably wouldve felt if i watched him in his glory days.  so, in my humble opinion, fedor for the past 3 years has not been that impressive - at least not impressive enough to deserve the crazy numbers on the books for and against him.  but alas, i digress...

lets get back to betting odds.  yeah so i almost kinda feel them like an unofficial ranking system you know?  and most of the time, i feel like the odds are more accurate than the rankings.  lets take the anthony johnson (-190) vs. dan hardy fight (+150) right here.  i think most of us would agree that those lines are relatively fair.  however, the most recent BE rankings have hardy at #12 and johnson at #25.  but somehow, johnson is favored?  and yes, i think dan hardy is the most overrated fighter in the game.  and he's a major doucher.  honestly, who the fuck likes him?

on the other hand, we have the rogerio nogueira (-350) vs. phil davis (+275).  nogueira is ranked 9th and davis sits at 16 in the most recent SB rankings.  if i wasn't so broke from spending all my money on alcohol, weed, and food, i would throw money on that shit in a heartbeat.  this is the first betting odd in a while that i've seen and said 'dayum' to.  i actually expect phil davis to beat nogueira, not at all trying to call an upset.  if not for jon jones, i feel like davis would be looked at like the hottest prospect since kimbo slice (lolz).  nogueira, i feel like, has trouble with powerful wrestlers (see bader, ryan).

btw, you ever think about like how ridiculously similar their names are: antonio rodrigo and antonio rogerio?  what is that in english? anthony roderick and anthony roger? it's like the penn family (war penn!). but honestly why would any parents ever want to do that? i just dont get it.  thats one thing that while im high does not get clearer.

so yeah, i tend to trust the betting odds more closely than the rankings.  i really dont get rankings come to think of it.  i feel like any fighter should be the favorite to beat any other fighter ranked below him, besides the champ, of course.  champ is number one, but i think a #12 hendo in strikeforce could beat #6 forrest griffin and everyone behind him, i'll put hendo at #6 and bump everybody else down.  im not saying you should bank matchmaking off rankings, per se, but i feel like their off, alot of the time.

so yeah those are just my thoughts for the day.  i basically blogged this shit.  its not that funny, unfortunately.  i actually wrote a pretty funny post a few weeks ago about incepting anderson silva.  i feel like it got overlooked cuz there were hella posts right around then.  check it out if you havent already. http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/3/7/2034449/anderson-silva-inception. its good. promise. 

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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