Bloody Elbow is like a box of chocolates. Every time I log in there is some surprise waiting for me. I logged in this afternoon to find out I am going to get paid at UFC 131. First, let me say I don't advocate gambling. Second, I know most who are reading the headline just blurted something like "GTFO!". After reading the comments in the thread about this fight it seems many think this is a layup for Carwin, a lamb being led to the slaughter. People are calling it pathetic match making on and on. Keep it going. Run that line up. Let me tell you why JOE will take out Carwin at 131.
I was thrilled when the UFC signed Einemo. I wrote this post highlighting how the UFC heavyweight division has not seen a fighter with this man's BJJ skills since Nog was healthy. Just so you can understand and grasp how dominant this guy is in the ADCC/BJJ world, he is the only man to defeat Roger Gracie at the ADCC. He is a two time ADCC division champion. He is also 6'6" tall and weighs around 245 pounds. His skills, in his division, are among the best in the world. Shane Carwin has never seen the likes of this kind of fighter.
You can look at Einemo's record of 6-1, with his only loss coming at the hands of heavyweight elite, Fabricio Werdum, and see that it has been years since he has been in a MMA match. He did suffer numerous injuries, including a nasty staph that almost took his foot. It took him time to heal up, and it has completely, then he made the best move he possibly could do for his MMA career. He joined Golden Glory in January of 2009.
For those of you who aren't familiar with the Breda Dojo in Golden Glory it houses some of the world's absolute best strikers. A walk through this Dojo will introduce you to elite MMA and K-1 fighters like Sergei Kharitonov, Gokhan Saki, Erroll Zimmerman, Semmy Schilt, and 2010 K-1 champion Alistair Overeem. Something this Dojo is famous for is "Meat Wednesdays". That means every Wednesday all the fighters in the gym go full on and beat the hell out of each other. No restraint. So, for those of you who think that Einemo is just a BJJ guy, think again. By the time he faces Shane he will have two and a half years training in this Dojo. Two and a half years of going at it with these amazing strikers. Shane has no idea what he is in for.
So, here it is. Carwin is a superb wrestler with granite hands. He lands bombs. He trains with Jackson. There is not one heavyweight at Jackson's camp that has anywhere near the striking prowess that resides at Golden Glory. On top of that, there is not one heavyweight at Jackson's that remotely come close to Einemo's BJJ capabilities. Shane can stand up with Einemo but he is going to be surprised at what this guy can do. I know Carwin blasts guys. But, so does Alistair, Semmy, et all. Those guys are going to be all over JOE's training for this fight. A Golden Glory fighter facing one of the top UFC heavyweights? A huge opportunity for this camp to establish themselves further among the cream of the crop. His stand up is going to be refined by the best. He will be more than ready to bang with Shane. Remember, he has an almost 5" height advantage on Shane as well. Where does Carwin go next? To the ground? With one of the best BJJ heavyweights in the world? With Carwin's cardio? Like a python wrapping up its prey, Carwin will be swallowed on the ground, gasping for air to deliver to his muscles that are failing him.
As many people look at this fight and see no way Carwin can lose, I look at it and say Carwin has little chance. The thing Carwin has going for him is he certainly has been more active in the cage than Einemo. But, he is coming off back surgery as well and is no spring chicken. Carwin is suspected of PED's usage in the past as well. Many athletes who we know have been using PED's start to break down right around Carwin's age. The kind of shape he will come into this fight, to me, is a huge question. Einemo poses a huge challenge for Carwin. And on June 11th, I'm getting paid.