FanPost

Research Challenge: Multiple Part Breakdown


I wanted to post this information a lot sooner, but I had to wait 24 hours until my account was authorized to post this. Anyway, here is what I came up with after converting the spreadsheet to a MS Access Database:

 

Basics:

-1486 Total Fights
-569 Decisions (38.29%)
-470 KO/TKO (31.63%)
-422 Submissions *including strikes and injury* (28.40%)
-21 Doctor Stoppages (1.41%)
-4 DQs (0.27%)


Simple Longer vs Shorter Reach:

-Longer Reach Fighter won 688 fights (51.77%)
-Shorter Reach Fighter won 641 fights *other fights were even reaches* (48.23%)

-Fighters won 490 fights when they had a 2 inch or more reach advantage (52.74%)
-Fighters won 439 fights when they had a 2 inch or more reach disadvantage (47.26%)

-Fighters won 344 fights when they had a 3 inch or more reach advantage (55.66%)
-Fighters won 274 fights when they had a 3 inch or more reach disadvantage (44.34%)

-Fighters won 150 fights when they had a 5 inch or more reach advantage (58.59%)
-Fighters won 106 fights when they had a 5 inch or more reach disadvantage (41.41%)


KO/TKO

-Longer Reach Fighter won 244 fights by KO/TKO (56.35%)
-Shorter Reach Fighter won 189 fights by KO/TKO (43.65%)

-Fighters won 179 fights by KO/TKO when they had a 2 inch or more reach advantage (60.07%)
-Fighters won 119 fights by KO/TKO when they had a 2 inch or more reach disadvantage (39.93%)

-Fighters won 121 fights by KO/TKO when they had a 3 inch or more reach advantage (63.35%)
-Fighters won 70 fights by KO/TKO when they had a 3 inch or more reach disadvantage (36.65%)

-Fighters won 59 fights by KO/TKO when they had a 5 inch or more reach advantage (68.60%)
-Fighters won 27 fights by KO/TKO when they had a 5 inch or more reach disadvantage (31.40%)

Decisions

-Longer Reach Fighter won 231 fights by Decision (46.57%)
-Shorter Reach Fighter won 265 fights by Decision (53.43%)

-Fighters won 60 fights by Decision when they had less than a 2 inch reach advantage (42.25%)
-Fighters won 82 fights by Decision when they had less than a 2 inch reach disadvantage (57.75%)

-Fighters won 171 fights by Decision when they had a 2 inch or more reach advantage (48.31%)
-Fighters won 183 fights by Decision when they had a 2 inch or more reach disadvantage (51.69%)

-Fighters won 121 fights by Decision when they had a 3 inch or more reach advantage (50.21%)
-Fighters won 120 fights by Decision when they had a 3 inch or more reach disadvantage (49.79%)

-Fighters won 44 fights by Decision when they had a 5 inch or more reach advantage (47.83%)
-Fighters won 48 fights by Decision when they had a 5 inch or more reach disadvantage (52.17%)


Submission Basics

-130 RNCs (30.81%)
-91 Guillotines (21.56%)
-57 Armbars (13.51%)
-47 Triangles (11.14%)
-36 Arm Triangles (8.53%)
-21 Submission due to Strikes (4.98%)
-15 Shoulder Submissions (3.55%)
-9 Ankle Locks (2.13%)
-7 Submission due to Injury (1.66%)
-5 Kneebars (1.18%)
-4 North-South Chokes (0.95%)


Submissions (not including Submission Strikes or Injury)

-Longer Reach Fighter won 190 fights by Submission (54.13%)
-Shorter Reach Fighter won 161 fights by Submission (45.87%)

-Longer Reach Fighter won 63 fights by RNC (56.25%)
-Shorter Reach Fighter won 49 fights by RNC (43.75%)

-Longer Reach Fighter won 44 fights by Guillotine (54.32%)
-Shorter Reach Fighter won 37 fights by Guillotine (45.68%)

-Longer Reach Fighter won 30 fights by Armbar (58.82%)
-Shorter Reach Fighter won 21 fights by Armbar (41.18%)

-Longer Reach Fighter won 28 fights by Triangle (62.22%)
-Shorter Reach Fighter won 17 fights by Triangle (37.78%)

-Fighters won 37 fights by RNC when they had more than a 2 inch reach advantage (57.81%)
-Fighters won 27 fights by RNC when they had more than a 2 inch reach disadvantage (42.19%)

-Fighters won 23 fights by Guillotine when they had more than a 2 inch reach advantage (57.50%)
-Fighters won 17 fights by Guillotine when they had more than a 2 inch reach disadvantage (42.50%)

-Fighters won 12 fights by Armbar when they had more than a 2 inch reach advantage (57.14%)
-Fighters won 9 fights by Armbar when they had more than a 2 inch reach disadvantage (42.86%)

-Fighters won 19 fights by Triangle when they had more than a 2 inch reach advantage (70.37%)
-Fighters won 8 fights by Triangle when they had more than a 2 inch reach disadvantage (29.63%)

 

Conclusion

In terms of winning and losing, it seems that as your reach advantage increases, so does your winning percentage, as shown by the increasing percents in fights won as you increase from 2 or more to 5 or more.

In the striking department, it appears that having a reach advantage helps you in achieving a KO/TKO victory (this is intuitive). As with pure winning and losing, it looks as though as your reach increases, so does your percentage of KO/TKO. This is evident from the increase in percentage of fights won by KO/TKO as you increase from 2 or more to 5 or more.

For decisions, the data supports that fighters with a reach disadvantage tend to win more decision in general than do fighters with a reach advantage. However, it appears as though this holds true more-so with fighters with only a slight reach disadvantage, for when you increase the disadvantage, the percentage of decisions won by shorter reach fighters decreases as you increase the reach disadvantage. When the fight involves fighters with a 3 inch reach differential, the percentage of winning a decision is just about equal. This seems to support that fighters who are similar in height but slightly stockier and stronger than there opponent seem to win the most decisions. And as you increase the reach differential, it becomes more even as the stockier fighter can win a decision by clinch control and the lankier fighter can win by keeping his distance with his jab. Fighters with similar reaches can't really keep their opponent away as well with the jab, but clinch control is just as feasible, therefore it makes sense that the reach disadvantaged fighters win more decisions more-so when the reach differential isn't that great.

Submissions seem very interesting. In general, Longer reach fighters win more fights by submission than do shorter reach fighters. RNC is the most common by far submission in MMA, and it appears that Longer Reach fighters have an edge in that department. As the reach advantage increases, so does the RNC success for Longer vs Shorter reach fighters.

Guillotines are beneficial for both short and long fighters, as a strong, short arm can really put the pressure on while a long, lanky arm can sneak around the neck more easily. However, based ont he data it appears that it is more beneficial for the longer fighter as when the reach advantage is increased, so does the rate of success of guillotines for longer reach fighters.

Armbars are tricky as well. Longer fighters have more arm to attack but have longer legs to attack with, and shorter fighters have less arm to attack and more torque. The data shows that longer fighters do have an edge in armbars, however, as the reach advantage increases the success rate does not go up. This may mean that there is a trade off between having the long arms that get attacked and having long legs to do the attacking.

Lastly, we have the triangle. Of course it is more beneficial for longer fighters since long legs = better success. This is clearly shown by the data, as triangle wins are the most in favor of longer fighters. And, as the reach advantage increases, so does the rate of success for the triangle. This was very intuitive.

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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