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UFC to counter-program April Strikeforce card?

Hey Guys,

 

I was looking at the upcoming schedule for UFC fight cards, and it occurs to me that there's nothing scheduled for 5 weeks from late March - late April...  Only thing significant about that time frame is the planned Strikeforce HW Grand Prix first round (Overeem v. Werdum).  What do you guys think, will the UFC launch a free show to counter it and hype UFC 129?  More details on UFC programming, and some hypothetical matches after the jump.

Star-divide

So I'll start by acknowledging that, obviously, there's a chance that this is a pure coincidence.  The UFC might just have a 5 week break.  It's possible that the UFC is avoiding MLB opening day and playoff start for the NBA... That being said, I'm throwing my guess out there that the UFC will announce a free April show, possibly headlined by Wanderlei Silva's return (vs Brian Stann).  

First off - UFC Schedule for the past 6 months. 

 

 

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields  30-Apr-11
UFC Fight Night: Ortiz vs. Nogueira  26-Mar-11
UFC 128: Shogun vs. Evans  19-Mar-11
UFC Live: Sanchez vs. Kampmann  3-Mar-11
UFC 127: Penn vs. Fitch  27-Feb-11
UFC 126: Silva vs. Belfort  5-Feb-11
UFC: Fight For The Troops 2  22-Jan-11
UFC 125: Resolution  1-Jan-11
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs. Koscheck 2  11-Dec-10
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck Finale  4-Dec-10
UFC 123: Rampage vs. Machida  20-Nov-10
UFC 122: Marquardt vs. Okami  13-Nov-10
UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez  23-Oct-10
UFC 120: Bisping vs. Akiyama  16-Oct-10
UFC 119: Mir vs. Cro Cop  25-Sep-10
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares  15-Sep-10

 

 

Now, you'll notice the UFC has not gone more than 3 weeks between cards even a single time.  Add in WEC events and they're even more frequent.   The last time the UFC went even 4 weeks was back in July 2010, after the Lesnar Carwin fight.  To find a 5 week break, you need to go back to September 2009, and even that had a WEC card breaking up the long layoff.  Now the UFC has absorbed the WEC, added two weight classes and they're taking a 5 week break?  Seems a bit unlikely.

If the UFC really doesn't schedule any events in this timeframe, they will be completely ceding the narrative to Strikeforce to dominate all MMA news in the lead-up to their big April card.  Dana has to realize this, and I think he's planning a nice April card.

Onto the possible Matchups:

 

Unfortunately there are no title fights that could realistically be made, and the biggest available star I see is Wanderlei Silva.  He is scheduled for a 'spring' return, and it looks like he's not been added to UFC 129 or UFC 130.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Brian Stann

Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen rematch if Chael is back; Otherwise maybe Leben?

Matt Hughes vs. ? (Hallman, Thiago, Swick?)

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jason Brilz

etc.

 

So, what do you think, total coincidence or evil Dana White master-plan?

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

Comment 15 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Dangit

Part of me wants to come up with reasons as to why the counter-programming won’t happen and hope that I won’t have to decide between watching the StrikeForce GP with one of my favorite fighters going up against one of my least favorite or a great UFC card.

But the rest of me knows it makes sense and that it will more than likely happen :/

CPG
Alistair Overeem - StrikeForce HeavyWeight Champion, K-1 2010 World Grand Prix Champion, DREAM Interim HeavyWeight Champion

by Chris Groves on Feb 2, 2011 3:46 PM EST reply actions  

Might happen you never know. But it is just as likely that they are just getting their act together for the TO show which is their biggest ever and will have a fan expo attached to it. If they don’t counter the first round of the HW tournament in NJ/NY which they want to own I can’t see why they would counter the second round.

by fitefan on Feb 2, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Momentum for UFC 129?

I feel like it’s really weird to have a 5 week layoff before their biggest card of the year. I trust their ability to setup the expo+ show with 3 weeks time (april 9-30). If they do a free card in April they can hype the PPV show a ton, would be a really good move IMO…

by flingom on Feb 2, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions  

You say counter-programming

I say wicked! More MMA! You make it sound like competition is a bad thing. I think its been making MMA bigger and better as a whole. If they want to fight over viewers eyeballs, i say let them and ill sit back and watch it all happen.

by ODBasyoucansee on Feb 2, 2011 5:14 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

good post though

rec’d for bringing that to my attention

by ODBasyoucansee on Feb 2, 2011 5:15 PM EST reply actions  

I love counter programming!

I Have a DVR and Showtime, i love counter programming! Didn’t mean to be negative about it, although I would certainly imagine Strikeforce would prefer if this didn’t happen… Probably only costs Strikeforce ~20% of their audience (pure guess), but it takes up most of their media attention/press… There’s only room for 1 clickable link on the espn.com homepage, it would probably go to UFC results over Strikeforce.

by flingom on Feb 2, 2011 5:22 PM EST reply actions  

No, they wont, its called they will use those weeks to hype the hell of 129.

If they counter it will be with a rerun of a PPV, not a live card, frankly look at the cards, 126 128 129 130 131 wth Brock/JDS and maybe Carwin/Kongo, they have stacked cards lined up, what could they possibly put on?

They could run a rerun of this event, 126, thats probably the only thing they would do.

They wont air a fight night or nothing.

by Aldo27 on Feb 2, 2011 5:34 PM EST reply actions  

Maybe they are trying to give certain big cards more breathing space.

I mean, when you think having a card come 3 weeks after another card, that’s not really that close.

But when you put it in terms of marketing, TV promos, countdown shows, ads and etc…it essentially amounts to the latter show getting onl 3 weeks for it’s entire promotion cycle. It makes little sense to start promoting UFC 132 when UFC 131 is still a week away itself. So the next show can’t be promoted until the first show is done.

That minimizes their advertising time. When you have stacked cards that are loaded top to bottom…the stacked aspect sells very well, but these cards also need a maximum amount of marketing space in order to reach their highest buyrate potential.

I think in 2010, while they saw consistent buyrates from UFC 111 to UFC 118 that were never lower than 500K, and only one card from 111 to 124 that did less than 500K(119) they may have seen some oversaturation.

I mean, imagine if the very best fights from UFC 119 and UFC 120 were one PPV event(with the leftovers making up a Fight Night card), with the time spent to promote both events devoted to advertising that single event…they certainly could have pulled off a better buyrate than what 119 did alone.

Basically, I think that the UFC might be taking a stance of doing a few less PPV events, but having each PPV be that much more stacked with that much more marketing time, and that may yield more bigtime buyrates than 2 ‘good’ cards each with half of the marketing time.

Clearly they are still doing a high number of events, but it’s obvious that they want to give their bigger PPVs time to gestate and really have awareness and hype build up. UFC 129, the debut in Toronto, the huge fight that is GSP vs Shields, the co-main of Aldo vs Hominick, and the fantastic matchup that is Couture vs Machida…it’s a fantastic card and deserves the attention on the marketing side of things.

CPG
Alistair Overeem - StrikeForce HeavyWeight Champion, K-1 2010 World Grand Prix Champion, DREAM Interim HeavyWeight Champion

by Chris Groves on Feb 2, 2011 5:43 PM EST reply actions  

Also does anyone think a possible Primetime GSP/Shields show will be coming and this gives them 3 weeks, actually 5 but they will have a three week stretch to do the Primetime show.

Its a big card, two title fights, Randy/Machida, Diaz, Bendo, Davis, its a good ass card, they will promote the hell out of it for those weeks, and a primetime show I will bet happens, its a way to promote GSP more which they love but also let people know more about Shields.

Figure they have to do two primetimes a year, spring/summer and fall, GSp/Shields is the spring fight that most works for a Primetime, the only thing is it will end up the same shit i dont like about 24/7, they always do Manny and FLoyd, and now with UFC GSP is the one that is always in it, GSP/BJ, GSP/Hardy, GSP/SHields, they didnt do one for GSP/Kos cause they did TUF, if they werent on TUF it would have gotten one.

I want to see others get it, and clearly GSP/Silva if that happens in the fall will get one.

The only other primtime from now till summer that could get one is Edgar/Maynard, look to build up that rematch even more and hype both them up, but GSP/Shields is what they will go with.

by Aldo27 on Feb 2, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Very good call

The Primetime show making a return for GSP-Shiels would be a smart move. That way the formal countdown show could focus on Aldo-Hominick and the rest of the card.

They need to build Shields up like the needed to do it with Hardy. Both Hardy and Shields aren’t insanely well known by the public, but Shields is an insanely credible challenger while Hardy was not. Shields is probably the most credible challenger GSP has fought since Fitch or Penn, thats for sure. His 15 fight win streak over top comp in 2 weight classes is very impressive. I know a lot of people are counting Shields out, but his resume he’s bringing into his fight with GSP makes this nothing less than a clash of the titans.

I’ve been wanting to see Shields vs GSP since last April when Shields ruled Henderson.

CPG
Alistair Overeem - StrikeForce HeavyWeight Champion, K-1 2010 World Grand Prix Champion, DREAM Interim HeavyWeight Champion

by Chris Groves on Feb 3, 2011 3:59 AM EST up reply actions  

It is a pretty

Intruiging card overall. I am more excited to see Couture/Machida and Aldo/Hominick than GSP / Shields though.

GSP is a great fighter. Record wise, one of the greatest. Finishing opponents wise… not so much. I just am not as impressed with a fighter whose goal is only to neutralize the other fighter and grind out a decision. They take no chances, certainly not logical to them to put themselves at risk when the decision is almost guaranteed by controlling them on the ground, or jabbing them away on the feet. I don’t see Shields penetrating any of GSP’s defenses. I think he gets punished with light to medium punches while not able to land a takedown; GSP will get him down a few times though I bet. Then after 25 minutes of that… decision for GSP.

Maynard broke his own rule and really went for the KO, this tie did more for him than winning the fight in his normal style would have done. Why? The fans will love him for it and his drawing power will increase dramatically. Fans want to see fighters that can finish their opponent. It is that simple. That is what Martial Arts should be about. Defeating your opponent

Werdum beat Fedor, Dos Santos beat Werdum, Joaquim Ferreira beat Dos Santos. Therefore Ferreira is WAAAAY better than Fedor. Keep MMA math alive!

by crizzy on Feb 2, 2011 6:57 PM EST reply actions  

sorry

got a bit off topic there. I still like and respect GSP as a fighter. I am just saying hearing he is fighting doesn’t pique my interest as much as it used to.

Werdum beat Fedor, Dos Santos beat Werdum, Joaquim Ferreira beat Dos Santos. Therefore Ferreira is WAAAAY better than Fedor. Keep MMA math alive!

by crizzy on Feb 2, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Part of that may be due to the lack of credible opponents too though.

Werdum beat Fedor, Dos Santos beat Werdum, Joaquim Ferreira beat Dos Santos. Therefore Ferreira is WAAAAY better than Fedor. Keep MMA math alive!

by crizzy on Feb 2, 2011 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Title is a bit misleading

But I can see something like Wandy vs. Stann and then four other fights that would be “Fight Night Quality” (example is Tom Lawlor vs. Tim Credeur). They’ll advertise the hell out of Wandy.

Fire Gus "What's a screen?" Bradley.

by SSreporters on Feb 2, 2011 8:34 PM EST reply actions  

Any excuse to have more free MMA is fine by me.

by Brad Ackerson on Feb 3, 2011 3:08 PM EST reply actions  

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