UFC 141 Results: Brock Lesnar's Retirement Highlights Need To Build New Stars
by Josh Nason on Dec 31, 2011 3:00 PM EST
in UFC Editorial
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If he could have, I'm sure Dana White would have let out a guttural scream when Brock Lesnar announced his retirement after his loss to Alistair Overeem at UFC 141. Why? His biggest pay-per-view draw is leaving the company.
How much of an impact has Lesnar had on the UFC's bottom line? Take a look at these buyrate numbers for the last four events Lesnar has headlined:
- UFC 121 (Cain Velasquez): 1,050,000
- UFC 116 (Shane Carwin): 1,116,000
- UFC 100 (Frank Mir II): 1,600,000
- UFC 91 (Randy Couture): 1,010,000
At an average of $50 per buy, that's an impact of between $50.2 million to $80 million per event for the UFC, cable providers and all of the ancillary parts of the machine. Along with Mike Tyson and Manny Pacquiao, he is one of only three men to main event two shows in the same year that drew more than a million pay-per-view buys. Even if the UFC 141 numbers come out at 800,000, that's a tremendous indicator of how much of an impact Lesnar has had on casual and hardcore MMA fans alike.
The problem is that the UFC doesn't have anyone to fill that void.
A major thread of conversation throughout the past 12 months has been the dropping buyrates for events and the lack of money fights, one of the reasons this writer was perplexed when the UFC didn't simply wait to book Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans for early 2012. Instead, they are risking the fight when Evans faces Phil Davis in late January instead. When you have the chance to make money these days, you have to take it. Nothing is guaranteed.
Georges St. Pierre's return is in doubt. Jones is starting to make a dent in the mainstream but needs all that will come with the build to the Evans fight to fully break through. Anderson Silva won't fight until July, but Mark Munoz may prevent another big money fight in Silva vs. Chael Sonnen II from happening. Overeem may have gained some fans last night but until he fights Junior dos Santos, we won't know how much of a financial impact he'll have without Lesnar as a dance partner.
With 32 shows planned for 2012, the UFC will be challenged once again on how to make and create stars that people will plunk down money to see. They need to create buzz, build challengers and somehow make pay-per-view matter again like they did so well in years past. Some people hate the comparisons of MMA to pro wrestling, but they share an undeniable link: the key to great business is getting people emotionally involved in the characters and the story. If you can accomplish that, you win.
Thanks to the WWE and a superhero-like physique, Lesnar was the right guy at the right time for the UFC and made everyone a ton of cash in the process. Perhaps White's toughest fight ahead is how to find the next right guy.
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I dont think he was saying that Brock’s impact was 100% of the buyrate for every event he appeared in. But I’m not sure I understand what he’s going after anyway.
Getting bent out of shape over a fight promoter lying is like getting upset that a hooker won't kiss you. It betrays a deep lack of understanding of the nature of the profession.
Gate revenue would be $2.1 - $5.1 million
It seems most likely to me that he meant $50 x the low of 1.05 buys and the high of 1.6 mil buys or $52.5 mil to $80 mil.
Shit it can’t be healthy how much I know what Brock does for business.
Missing zeros
I knew that didn’t look right. Thanks for heads-up.
Josh Nason - MMA media for BE/WrestlingObserver/FIGHT! Magazine/WGAM
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there will never be a big shining star in the UFC, only who’s on the plate at the time
will the scorpion king or the egg be the hydra
Luk 11:12 Or if he shall ask an egg, will he offer him a scorpion?
And I think that's good enough.
I understand that personality sells, but we should embrace the sport. The sport should sell. This isn’t boxing.
Every sport
Markets their marketable stars. Not one sport simply sells itself.
"I'm the one who knocks at the door"(may or may not be verbatim)
Walter white
Can an argument be made for peak and plateu?
And maybe to an extent that the novelty has worn off and there has been a bit of oversaturation and really picky hardcore fans
were you agreeing with yourself or was that a spellcheck ;)
will the scorpion king or the egg be the hydra
Luk 11:12 Or if he shall ask an egg, will he offer him a scorpion?
They should really begin to limit the PPV's
I think more people would be willing to watch abunch of these guys if they didnt have to pay for them. I dont think anybody disputes that these guys are good fighters but in this economy alot of people have to ask if they’re worth 50 dollars and alot of times it’s no.
It's not the 50 dollars
It’s 50 dollars more than once a month. Even if you’re doing really well in spite of the economy, $100 a month or more on top of your cable bill will make most people question their PPV purchasing decisions.
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Part of it is the 50 dollars
Even if they waited to put on the exact UFC 142 card on superbowl weekend instead so over a month later it would still do crap numbers because people are gonna look at guys like Aldo and Mendes and Belfort and Johnson and most likely go those names are not worth the 50 dollars.
There are guys that truly never gonna be PPV draws no matter what happens, I firmly believe the best numbers Edgar will ever do are the 500k against Penn.
I think that's the fault of the UFC
Burying Edgar on the Japan card is a good way to NOT build your champion.
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Edgar's never going to do well unless you stick him on a card with a better draw
He’s an exciting fighter, that clearly isn’t an issue. He needs to be a TUF coach on FX, he needs to be supporting a fight like Diaz vs Condit or if it ever happens Sonnen vs Silva 2.
He deserves better than the UFC is currently giving him.
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Or they could use him on the Fox cards
If both of those Edgar Maynard classics happened on Fox, I’m sure the UFC would have a star on their hands.
by discoandherpes on Jan 1, 2012 2:44 AM EST up reply actions
Next PPV is in 2 weeks
That’s the problem with their numbers. I’d argue for 12 actual PPV events seperated a month apart focusing on title fights and solid undercards, with no#1 contender fights being showcased on FX or Fox to get people to invest in a PPV.
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Their PPVs are shockingly bad ideas
They put Aldo vs. Mendes as a main event when Aldo was part of a two title fight card that didn’t break 300k.
Then at 144 it’s Edgar vs. Henderson where Edgar is headlining ANOTHER card after it’s been proven he cannot draw and Henderson’s last fight was on Facebook.
Read my tweets or whatever - @SSReporters
There aren't many alternatives
You can’t make a title fight a co-main event, and it’s hard to book two title fights on the same card
by MS_Dos_Santos on Dec 31, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure if they’ll ever be able to consistently hist 1 million per card, but that doesn’t mean the sky is falling. This is the reason they didn’t look at UFC 100’s numbers and start handing out huge contracts like candy.
Almost everything that could have gone wrong in 2011 did, and they still made money. Without Brock it will be a lot harder to make the money they made in 2009/2010, but tat isn’t the end of the world.
As for cutting back on PPVs, the numbers from the Fox contract make it seem like they will be able to do that, but I think people harp on it too much. They know how much it costs to produce an event, so they know if 2 300k PPVs is more profitable than 1 500k PPV. If 2 300k PPVs is the more profitable method, don’t expect them to change it.
2012 will be very interesting. They won’t have Brock, but some of the new fans he brought will remain, 2 guys that killed Brock, and a bigger, more willing TV partner.
My prediction for the UFC in 2012
it will be much more popular and much less profitable.
by John Nash on Dec 31, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Couldn't agree more
I think once Fox really gets going, more people will watch, but may not necessarily order the PPV’s.
I guess the point of the article thus still stands, the UFC needs to build new, different stars in ordr to maintain the PPV model that has been ridiculously successful for them.
"I'm the one who knocks at the door"(may or may not be verbatim)
Walter white
If that's the case then..
there’ll still be a point where they’ll be turning on to the long tail to still cash in on huge profits..
The only fight that can reach 1 million buys is GSP vs. Anderson Silva, outside shot of Silva vs. Sonnen II
But beyond that the UFC will probably not reach one million in the foreseeable future.
Read my tweets or whatever - @SSReporters
The UFC does a bad job of building stars
They don’t push how dominant their fighters are. Instead of saying shit like Thales Leites is the guy to beat Anderson Silva to make their obvious mismatches competitive, they should prop up how dominant Anderson is and how badly he will ruin his next opponent. Selling GSP vs. Hardy as a competitive fight is dishonest (well…it is marketing) and they don’t even do a good job of marketing it as such. And then they turn around and call Matt Brown and Chris Cope “high level welterweights”. They sell their shit as brilliant and simultaneously downplay their best fighters’ dominance.
Instead of putting TUF retreads on every other Fight Night guys like Rory MacDonald, Johny Hendricks, Jake Ellenberger, etc. should be on every UFC magazine type of show, Unleashed, and headlining Fight Nights left, right, and center.
They sort of did it with Jon Jones so it’s up to them to try it with their other rising contenders.
Read my tweets or whatever - @SSReporters
by SSreporters on Dec 31, 2011 3:43 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Georges St. Pierre's return is in doubt
BE is seriously running with the whole, “Will GSP retire?” nonsense, huh?
Here's what you do.
You keep signing guys, keep deepening the divisions/adding more by absorbing competitors and signing new broadcast deals, aggressively seek out and conquer new markets, put the best fighters in the world against each other over and over again and see what happens.
Read as “exactly what Zuffa is doing.”
When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
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by Derek Suboticki on Dec 31, 2011 3:50 PM EST reply actions
You seem to be very knowledgeable on the UFC's books
I thought they were cutting back the PPVs this year by 2? I think they need to cut it down to maybe 11 a year. It gets people craving it and with all the free shows it may help their bottom line.
But I respect your opinion so I want to see where you stand on the FOX deal. Doesn’t that guaranteed revenue per year supplement the down PPV buys? Even if they hit 4 million PPVs buys in 2012 (which would be down over 40% from this year) wouldn’t the FOX deal more than make up for it? With regards to revenue of course.
"Life isn't Fucking fair! Deal with it." Dad.
Fox deal is good...
….at estimated $95-$100 million/year. The one issue is they want to use it as a vehicle for PPV buys as they are, by their own admission, a PPV business. If they can use to promote/push and build new stars people want to see, it’s a hit. If those watching simply get their UFC fix by all the free content they can watch, then it’s a wash.
Their biggest riddle to solve in ’12 is how to get more people to buy PPVs without losing any more ground.
Josh Nason - MMA media for BE/WrestlingObserver/FIGHT! Magazine/WGAM
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The reason is simple IMO
…there are too many cards which don’t have enough star power, combined with a lot of injuries. The card I went to see on Memorial Day in Vegas was a perfect example. What should have been one of the best cards of the year, turned into dog poop.
Halloween card….GSP injured…..Super Bowl card….GSP injured. JDS vs. Cain- Both guys injured but fought anyways. You could tell at the weigh-ins Cain was soft and didn’t look like himself.
“…the key to great business is getting people emotionally involved in the characters and the story”
And this is what has been a huge problem for the UFC. It almost feels like there’s a fear on the UFC’s part of fighters becoming bigger than the UFC brand—of becoming a trademark in their own right. Besides maybe Randy Couture, there hasn’t really been a fighter whose popularity transcends their presence in the UFC. As a result, you’re not going to see a David Beckham or Tiger Woods of MMA—the UFC wants a big draw that they don’t have to pay eight figures for. The paradox is that they sacrifice PPV buys by not taking the time to groom such a person.
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