UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem Betting Lines
by Tim Burke on Dec 15, 2011 6:58 PM EST
in UFC Gambling
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All the betting lines for UFC 141 haven't been released yet, but what is out already is juicy. The much-anticipated main event currently sees Alistair Overeem as a favorite, but it's a very tough fight to call. Personally I'm all about Alistair at -160, but a lot of people disagree. The co-main is where I see the best value. While Donald Cerrone certainly deserves to be the favorite based on his recent past, Nate Diaz at +200 is a steal and I'm all over that like Paulo Thiago on a favela resident. I believe there is value in Matyushenko at +245 as well, despite not thinking he will win. Finally, people - bet on Jimy Hettes. Nam Phan really isn't that good, and Hettes is a highly-touted guy.
When the rest of the lines drop you'll be the first to know. Until then, here's what's out there:
Lines via www.bookmaker.eu
Dec 30th, live on pay-per-view from Las Vegas, NV:
Brock Lesnar (5-2) +130 vs. Alistair Overeem (35-11, 1 NC) -160
Nate Diaz (14-7) +200 vs. Donald Cerrone (17-3) -250
Jon Fitch (23-3-1, 1 NC) -240 vs. Johny Hendricks (11-1) +190
Vladimir Matyushenko (26-5) +245 vs. Alexander Gustafsson (12-1) -305
Jimy Hettes (9-0) +215 vs.Nam Phan (17-9) -275
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not gonna throw Pham in there for the quadruple upset?
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by ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ on Dec 15, 2011 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
for a moment I thought you had Pharm in there, not Pham
if the third stone has life, what about 20 years worth.
by liptondrift on Dec 15, 2011 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
Pulling for Diaz
But I think Cerro-nay’s superior speed is going to lead to a lopsided decision.
by ihateemo on Dec 15, 2011 7:08 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Decisions?
I would be money this fight gets finished
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by ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ on Dec 15, 2011 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, I think CERO-NAY is gonna drub him
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by ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ on Dec 15, 2011 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
Y’all r crazy Diaz has never been finished in the ufc. And cerrone will lose via sub IMO
by J smooth 420 on Dec 15, 2011 7:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
You’re right about that. Diaz might also have the highest percentage of bonuses of any active fighter. Maybe I’ll have to rethink this…..
Donald has been steady improving since WEC, and Diaz reps hard for Stockton, but after those three throws and the clowning that happened last Diaz fight, vs how Cowboy looked against Siver…
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by ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ on Dec 15, 2011 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Lol
MMA fans who type without thinking are the best.
First: That fight that Diaz was thrown around in was not his last fight.
Second: His last fight was against Gomi, and it was the most impressive fight of his career.
Third: Rory Macdonald ragdolls EVERY lightweight that thinks they should move up, like Diaz did.
Fourthly:My 9-9-9 plan……
by Dalton Jones on Dec 15, 2011 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
The same Gomi whose only UFC win is against Tyson Griffin (who lost three in a row at LW and decided to move back down to FW)?
I’ll pick Cerrone.
Yeah, that whole Gomi win.
When Joe said Diaz picked up the biggest win of his career against zombie Gomi, well makes me want to pick Cerrone.
I believe in Chael Sonnen.
.....
That wasn’t the point of my post.
Nowhere did I praise Gomi or say he was something special. I said it was the most impressive FIGHT of Diaz’s career, because he was able to do whatever he wanted, and did it flawlessly.
I corrected the good sir when he said Nate Diaz was thrown around in his last fight, because I don’t know if I missed a few minutes of Gomi/Diaz, but I did not see Gomi throw Diaz around three time.
You idiot tolls really need to sharpen up.
by Dalton Jones on Dec 15, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
I’m just saying that dominating Gomi at this point in his career isn’t exactly an impressive feat.
But, sure, he dominated him that means that Diaz will win in a cakewalk!
Who said those things though? Because you are implying that u did, but you can see my comments and I said no such thing.
So you are either a very bad troll or a very big idiot.
by Dalton Jones on Dec 15, 2011 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
Despite Gomi losing in the UFC a lot, Diaz lit him up far worst than Guida and Florian combined.
by discoandherpes on Dec 15, 2011 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Penn hurt him pretty bad too.
The Penn fight was the first we saw Gomi was human. But Diaz really messed him. It didn’t even look fair.
if the third stone has life, what about 20 years worth.
by liptondrift on Dec 15, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
The sad/great part about it was watching Gomi’s face. He looked genuinely surprised that he was getting a beatdown throughout the whole fight.
by discoandherpes on Dec 16, 2011 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Overeem's line looks good when you consider Brock's long layoff, health issues, and striking deficiences.
Nate is a very live dog…he’s way better at LW than WW.
Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac?
George Carlin
----------------------------
K1 Level Predictions Team 2011 BE Cilvil War Champions!
----------------------------
Yep.
But I still think that a fresh Brock is enough to drag him down. If the fight goes long and Ubereem is still standing, I don’t see that being a good omen for Brock’s chances.
The Internets: Where there are no girls and men become children.
by Unabomberman on Dec 15, 2011 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
Not so sure about Reem’s gas tank if the fight gets into the second or third round. I thought he might have lost to Werdum if Werdum hadn’t given him repeated opportunities to catch his breath when he was flopping.
and wrestling and striking are two totally different types of cardio
Brocks 5-2 doesn’t look that bad (it’s still awesome for how he jumped out of frying pan and into fire) when you throw the 105-3 from the College wrestling days behind it, and it gives experience in being dead tired but continuing
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by ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ on Dec 15, 2011 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
hard for me to say on Brock vs Overeem
I keep looking back to other big heavyweight fights that had one favorite that made 100% reversals the day before the fight. I’m an Overeem fan, but sometimes the lines are a good a guess as any.
if the third stone has life, what about 20 years worth.
by liptondrift on Dec 15, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
Can not WAIT
for Cerrone – Diaz. A bit surprised that Cerrone’s favored so highly.
"Parangaricutirimicuaro, I put the shadow in your complex."
by dribblebib on Dec 15, 2011 7:14 PM EST via mobile reply actions
bartscott.gif
"Parangaricutirimicuaro, I put the shadow in your complex."
by dribblebib on Dec 15, 2011 7:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Anybody can be beat!
Don't be scared Gomi...
by ThatsHowIRoll on Dec 15, 2011 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
Like... ...a REVENGEANCE?
Sorry, I’m still somewhat surprised at how stupid video game names are becoming.
The Internets: Where there are no girls and men become children.
by Unabomberman on Dec 15, 2011 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, no.
There’ll be a lot of retirement-talk once Ubereem has slapped Brock across the cage for 3 rounds straight.
Go big red!
...and it'll end when Brock stops him in the fourth round.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." - Wayne Gretzky - Michael Scott
by Sugel Mendoza on Dec 15, 2011 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
Lesnar, Hendricks & Hettes parlay.
Good idea or bad idea, gentlemen?
"Referees, be sure to step in and stop the fight on time tomorrow, because I might get carried away in the moment and my many punches may end up destroying my opponent." - Tatsuya "CRUSHER" Kawajiri
Bet against Fitch
Bad idea. He only loses to guys names George Saint Pierre.
BE Civil War Season 1 Champion
He never lost to George Saint Pierre...
But Georges? Oh yeah, that dude fucked him up.
Just kiddin man. Grammar nazi’s suck.
Seeing as two of three are likely to lose, no.
KEMvP
"You know Joe, if Keith Jardines last name was Johnson, the nickname 'The Dean of Mean' wouldn't work at all."
by T.C. Engel on Dec 15, 2011 8:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Brock Charged with hunting violations in Alberta
I know this is unrelated to the discussion but I just heard this on the radio on the way home from work. Here is a link.
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/sports/article/175416—brock-lesnar-facing-wildlife-charges-in-alberta
The Janitor is the biggest threat
to cleaning up your money
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by ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ on Dec 15, 2011 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
Badum
tish
Anderson Silva, Edson Barboza, Jose Aldo, Charles Oliveira, Thiago Alves = Muay Thai wrecking machines!
by SentientAndroid on Dec 16, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Gustaffson will be tested
and if he passes with flying colors,he might very well be a force to be reckoned with in the LHW div. Keep your eyes on this rising prospect!
Agreed..
Gustafsson is the next rising LHW contender…
Is this a better win for Gustaffson?
I mean, he just just brutalized Hamill.
What's the line on PPV buys?
I’m thinking this one does well over 800K, maybe over a million. I can’t remember the last time I thought they’d sell the hell out of a PPV that didn’t feature GSP…maybe not since the last time Brock fought.
over 800k
Min
Brock is showing his face, if that doesn’t put it North of a Mil I don’t know what will
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by ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ on Dec 15, 2011 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
Will Friday night help or hurt it?
I know a lot of people go out to the bars on NYE but there are also a lot of house parties. I think it could’ve done ok on Saturday but I guess they couldn’t take a chance with their biggest star. I think Friday Brock/Overreem is great when NYE is the next night. Gonna be a long weekend. Sucks I don’t have off on Monday though.
"You're... you're crazy man. I like you, but you're crazy."
I honestly think that season of TUF has diminished Brock's appeal
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lower than expected amount of PPV buys.
Brock Lesnar as coach / out of character != BROCKLESNAR SMASH INSIDE OF CAGE
please separate the two in your mind
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by ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ on Dec 16, 2011 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
If you're betting on Lesnar.
Get it while it’s hot. Late money has moved that line closer since the athletic commission issues and move to Holland for Overeem. Brock’s down to +135 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him even by bell time. The thought is Overeem is going to be a distracted and unfocused fighter and bettors are starting to believe that.
by Steve W on Dec 15, 2011 8:01 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Why is Hettes a dog to Phan
Overall more athletic and better sure Phan has decent boxing but Hettes has more skills to win this one.
Twitter @MaZZM
http://www.mazzznet.com/
Not a lot of people know about Hettes, and Phan's stock is pretty high currently
Boom, that’s all it takes.
Looking forward the new dance moves Lesnar's going to bust out
Gonna be wild. After Alistair wrecks him, he might have a good showing on dancing with the stars.
other than the co-main event
I wouldn’t spend a Fuckin dime on any of these fights.
You can tell alot about a person just by reading their sig.
by RandyCouture'sDivorceLawyer on Dec 15, 2011 8:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions
really?
not a Phamboy?
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by ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ on Dec 15, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
and both of them fought like shit in their last fights.
Is rather watch Diaz/Cerrone. They always bring it.
You can tell alot about a person just by reading their sig.
by RandyCouture'sDivorceLawyer on Dec 16, 2011 12:31 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Cerrone is my favorite LW, but he’s always fighting other guys I like. It makes it harder to ride his hype train. I actually like Nate at those odds.
"He's like Elvis in Korea! They love him there." - Mike Goldberg on Denis Kang
Putting a ton of dough on Hettes
Also Diaz is a very live dog.
Read my tweets or whatever - @SSReporters
Dear Hendricks,
Pepare to be Fitched.
Writer for Blistered Thumbs
Fabricio Werdum is not my father.
Follow @TheCynicsCorner
*prepare
Writer for Blistered Thumbs
Fabricio Werdum is not my father.
Follow @TheCynicsCorner
by MicahtheCynic on Dec 15, 2011 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
well
Overeem via sub (tine)
Hendricks via Tko (the game has passed 1D fitch up)
Donald via decision.
Phan via tko (body shot)
Oh shit Ken from street fighter is fighting on this card?!
Gustaffson via uppercut (fire)
The Internets: Where there are no girls and men become children.
by Unabomberman on Dec 16, 2011 2:07 AM EST up reply actions
puzzle fighters -__- always play dan
drop all red, still win
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by ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ on Dec 16, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
Dammit
I was going to pick Diaz. But then I saw all of yous picking Diaz as a dog, and I realized that it meant that dick-kicker shit-talker was going to win. Fuck.
BOOSH
I really wanna pick cowboy, but Diaz has all kinds of chin and
has better subs than Bendo
Don't doubt it kids, I'm a petty little man - Kid Nate
by purplehazelett on Dec 15, 2011 11:28 PM EST reply actions
So, Donald Cer-ro-nay will get some?
Writer for Blistered Thumbs
Fabricio Werdum is not my father.
Follow @TheCynicsCorner
by MicahtheCynic on Dec 16, 2011 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
I so hope not; but I can see it happening.
The Internets: Where there are no girls and men become children.
by Unabomberman on Dec 16, 2011 2:08 AM EST up reply actions
Hey dude, I was right about Overeem being favourite.
The odds are not against him. But I’m with you on Diaz, I hope he beats Cow-boy Cer-ro-nay.
I just made my first bet ever. And now after reading everyone's comments I'm scared.
I just put $100 down on Nate Diaz.
But part of me thinks he’ll lose a decision. But whatever, worst case scenario I lose $100.00.
I’m losing my gambling virginity with Nate Diaz.
by My_Name_Is_Nobody on Dec 16, 2011 2:55 AM EST reply actions
Until the fight is over
Just pretend that money never existed. That way, if he loses, you wont feel sad :D
been there my friend..nothing worse than a 3 fight parlay and you win the first 2 and the 3rd ...not so much
They're coming to get you Barbara
Alexander
will retire the Janitor. War Sweden!
these bets...
I’ve bet on some of these fights before and for this event mayn…I don’t think any of these are safe lol…i’m just gonna stay away from this card…the only sure thing is gustaffon beating vlad and fitch taking a decision by humping…donald CERR-ON-E had been on a absolute tear lately…the pressure of being in the ufc might be a lot for overeem even though he should KO brock….i would probably go for a Brock bet actually…but still this could be unpredictable as hell…
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