FanPost

Salary Cap Game Strategy & Stats (UFC 138)

This weekend marks the beginning of the first multi-event fantasy game at the MMA Salary Cap Challenge. This should prove to be similar to the previous single-event games, with the exception of more opportunities for players to earn points and rattle the leaderboards, as well as the possibility that fantasy points scored after an event (along with any unspent cash) become your budget for the next one.

The MSCC roster for UFC 138 was just posted yesterday, so for this event I'll just be sharing the usual data (expected fantasy points, points-per-dollar, and my buys), with very little analysis. Next week I'll try to be more in-depth.

 

Cyrille Diabate Anthony Perosh
Last 3 Opponents' Expected Fantasy Points Opponents' Last 3
Knockdowns 3.33 3.82 1.945 2.190 0.56 0.56 Knockdowns
Sig Strikes 11.18 4.47 8.800 4.380 6.42 4.29 Sig Strikes
Takedowns 0.22 1.06 0.220 1.420 0.22 1.78 Takedowns
Sub Attempts 0 2.50 0.335 2.360 0.67 2.22 Sub Attempts
Ground Passes 0 4.25 0.110 3.790 0.22 3.33 Ground Passes
Total Expected Fantasy Points 11.410 14.140 Total Expected Fantasy Points

 

Terry Etim Edward Faaloloto
Last 3 Opponents' Expected Fantasy Points Opponents' Last 3
Knockdowns 0 1.04 1.875 0.520 3.75 0 Knockdowns
Sig Strikes 4.34 4.63 7.920 4.865 11.50 5.10 Sig Strikes
Takedowns 0 1.14 0.750 0.820 1.50 0.50 Takedowns
Sub Attempts 4.12 0.67 2.060 0.335 0 0 Sub Attempts
Ground Passes 0.42 1.67 0.460 1.085 0.50 0.50 Ground Passes
Total Expected Fantasy Points 13.065 7.625 Total Expected Fantasy Points

 

Thiago Alves Papy Abedi
Last 3 Opponents' Expected Fantasy Points Opponents' Last 3
Knockdowns 0.56 0 Knockdowns
Sig Strikes 6.04 5.69 Sig Strikes
Takedowns 0.67 2.89 Takedowns
Sub Attempts 0 0 Sub Attempts
Ground Passes 0.89 1.11 Ground Passes
Total Expected Fantasy Points * 12.170 * * 5.680 * Total Expected Fantasy Points

 

The real mystery of fantasy play for UFC 138 is what the hell to do about Alves vs. Abedi. Abedi has spent his career on the European regional circuit, and thus Fightmetric has no pertinent data to contribute on his behalf.

To estimate very, very tentative expected fantasy points figures, I combined four provided values: The number of fantasy points scored both for (8.16) and against (9.69) Alves in his last three bouts, his cost ($15), and Abedi's ($7). As the play cost of each fighter tends to represent MSCC's performance expectations, I summed Alves' fantasy point stats (17.85, a reflection of his recent strengths and weaknesses) and awarded 15/22 of the total to Alves himself, and the remaining 7/22 to Abedi. This levels their points/dollar scores, making both fighters equally "worth it" or "not worth it" from a fantasy perspective. If Alves has impressive numbers compared to the other main card combatants, then he (and Abedi) will rank highly on the points/dollar leaderboard. Otherwise, both fighters will probably avoid being recommended as valuable plays.

 

Brad Pickett Renan Barao
Last 3 Opponents' Expected Fantasy Points Opponents' Last 3
Knockdowns 0 0 0.000 0.000 0 0 Knockdowns
Sig Strikes 6.18 9.56 4.465 6.685 2.75 3.81 Sig Strikes
Takedowns 2.89 1.33 1.575 1.460 0.26 1.59 Takedowns
Sub Attempts 0.89 0.44 0.445 2.400 0 4.36 Sub Attempts
Ground Passes 2.44 0.67 1.220 2.495 0 4.32 Ground Passes
Total Expected Fantasy Points 7.705 13.040 Total Expected Fantasy Points

 

Chris Leben Mark Munoz
Last 3 Opponents' Expected Fantasy Points Opponents' Last 3
Knockdowns 8.33 6.25 4.165 7.290 0 8.33 Knockdowns
Sig Strikes 9.21 8.20 6.940 8.100 4.67 8.00 Sig Strikes
Takedowns 0 1.11 2.220 1.000 4.44 0.89 Takedowns
Sub Attempts 1.78 2.11 1.335 1.275 0.89 0.44 Sub Attempts
Ground Passes 0 0.89 0.110 0.555 0.22 0.22 Ground Passes
Total Expected Fantasy Points 14.770 18.220 Total Expected Fantasy Points

 

Making Plays

 

Fantasy Value Leaderboard
Fighter Points Cost P/$
Anthony Perosh 14.140 $10 1.414
Chris Leben 14.770 $13 1.136
Edward Faaloloto 7.625 $7 1.089
Renan Barao 13.040 $13 1.003
Brad Pickett 7.705 $9 0.856
Mark Munoz 18.220 $22 0.828
Papy Abedi * 5.680 * $7 * 0.811 *
Thiago Alves * 12.170 * $15 * 0.811 *
Terry Etim 13.065 $23 0.568
Cyrille Diabate 11.410 $21 0.543

 

My Plays:

 

  • 15 on Perosh ($150)
  • 11 on Leben ($143)
  • 21 on Faaloloto ($147)
  • 4 on Barao ($52)
  • 1 on Abedi ($7)
  • 52 plays total ($499)

 

The value leaderboard is much more shuffled this time than last. The best and worst plays are still opposing fighters, but the other pairings don't appear to follow any discernable pattern. Perosh is the underdog to Diabate, but I think he'll find opportunities to score on the mat. Same goes for Barao against Pickett. Munoz is poised to outscore Leben overall, but I think he's too pricey to count on. Abedi gets a play because I had some pocket change leftover after buying the four big earners.

I really encourage everyone here at BE to sign up and play at MSCC. I was surprised that player count dropped between the first and second games- this is really fun and well-executed. Any fans of fantasy football or baseball need to do yourselves a favor and give this a spin!

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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