Early UFC 139 Estimated Buyrate: 270,000

Wow, yikes that… that’s not good.

I had a theory that we’d see a good buyrate for this one as new viewers impressed by the UFC on FOX fight gave a full-fledged PPV a shot… but wow that theory couldn’t have been more wrong. Just… wow.

Rough numbers. It’s not a good sign, I expected some higher numbers after the Fox debut.

they need less events. More demand = more buys, greater supply = less demand.

Hopefully they just start getting paid inf like real sports leagues do: from the networks. ‘Murikah gets to watch NFL, MLB, NBA (lol) and NHL (MLS too? WNBA?) on free or basic cable 100% of the time. Here’s hoping the UFC gets to that level.

If they do worse next year, then they’re in trouble. It hasn’t helped with so many fighters dropping out injured or ill, including Lesnar and GSP. They also didn’t capitalise on Evans vs Jones which was purely their own fault.

why no TUF this week?

Is that company still in business??? I’ve been reading about their failed business plans and issues for them to be concerned about for years now on online blogs. Shouldn’t the UFC be on Bloody Elbow’s tombstone by now?

There used to be a PPV every 6-8 weeks, now you have at least 1 per month and often 2. They need less PPV’s and more free cards to build up the PPV numbers again.

Can’t believe anyone could be expecting new fans to drop $60 on the PPV a week after seeing a superhyped fight go 60 seconds. If JDS v Cain had looked like Shogun v Hendo then maybe.

I just wanted to fit in.

So has anyone figured out how bar showings factor in to the numbers, if at all?

The bigger question, if the UFC has trouble getting people to pay for their cards, how does Meltzer get people to pay for his content???

A couple of things. yes, the UFC is skewing towards the ways of the major pro sports leagues with their business model. Anyone who thinks the economy is not a factor is crazy. Anyone who thinks the economy is the only reason is also crazy. It is clear that the “old established guys” are done and new stars need to be grown. Hopefully, being on Fox will do this. Guys like Liddell, Hughes, Couture, BJ on and on, are either gone or greatly diminished draws. Even Anderson is nearing the end. HW and LHW has had a revolving door lately. So outside of GSP, that leaves Edgar. I hope they arent counting on him to draw eyeballs. The thing is, every sport goes through these periods, where a new generation of superstars need to rise up and I think that has something to do with what we are seeing. Lastly, the UFC needs Lesnar to get back and be healthy while they groom a replacement for him. Maybe AO?

This is not good news, but there are other factors going on. The economy is one, and people just don’t have the money to pay for UFC PPVs. Possible over-saturation is another. Injuries to the top stars is another factor, but with this card, that really isn’t a factor. Lack of advertisement hurts as well especially with the relations between the UFC and SpikeTV. Dana said that they are in a transition period right now, and that’s hurting business.
The other thing to look at is UFC on Fox. The thing is that these “new” viewers to the UFC obviously didn’t order this PPV, and while the initial ratings for UFC on Fox were very good, the real success is going to be in the potential followup. You get all these viewers watching JDS vs Velasquez, and the UFC gets a good rating, but they aren’t ordering the PPVs, and at best, they may watch more free content from the UFC.

there is cause for concern. not panic maybe, but concern.

we can speculate all we want about the reasons. it is likely a host of factors, including the economy.

but at least one of them has to be that for some people, their interest in MMA was either a bit of fad rather than something that really made a lasting impression, or was driven by particular athletes (GSP, Lesnar, Rampage, TUF guys, etc.) more than a love for the sport itself.

as it is currently constituted, i believe that MMA has hit a bit of plateau (until the next big star gets firmly established, whether that’s jon jones or whatever).

it will be very, very interesting to see how ufc does on fox.

But how did it do world wide? For example Fox was viewed by about 6 million in USA but about 60 million in Brazil..

This is what it’s become. GSP is exempt because he’s GSP.

Brock is their best draw. Silva/Sonnen drew so well because Sonnen did his thing. But when Sonnen compliments Stann the buyrate is horrible.

Rampage/Rashad did a million buys because of a full season of TUF and plenty of drama.

No one understands what the hell Nick Diaz is saying no matter how much he trash talks so he probably won’t draw well.

It’s becoming undeniable fact now. The UFC’s terrible job of marketing the fighter instead of the brand is hurting their PPV buyrates and guys like Chael take it upon themselves to do the selling for them.

This FOX deal better work out and work out well.

Their Fox revenue will replace the gross from about 2 million PPV per year. PPV will soon be nothing but icing on the cake rather than the mainstay of their financial health. As their international TV deals are put in place, they’ll have a healthy, reliable, growing revenue stream that’s virtually impervious to the vagaries of fighter injuries, lack of marquee main events, etc.

We are in the middle of a transitional period right now where Spike has withdrawn its cooperative support, but the UFC won’t be picked up by the Fox machine until 2012.

If we see numbers like this, say, this time next year, then we have a problem. Nothing to see hear yet though folks.

I really think it’d be awesome if the UFC looked into offering a Sunday Ticket type of option, where for $199 bucks or so, you get to watch all their PPV content for a year; or at least lower the price to $29 ($39 for HD) on all non-title PPVs if they expect people like myself (who never miss a PPV) to keep buying all these cards.

The global economy blows.

I raise money for a charity for a living. The last 4 months have been awful for charitable giving. I can see consumer confidence ebb and flow week to week, and right now it is really shitty.

I’m not at all surprised to see fewer PPV buys. And I don’t think it says anything about the UFC.