UFC 139 Results: FightMetric Scores Shogun vs. Henderson a Draw

via persianmma.com

There was obviously a lot of discussion about the scoring of last night's UFC 139 main event between Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Dan Henderson. The judges all gave the fight to Hendo 48-47 (you can see the scorecard here), with Dan getting the first three rounds on all three cards, and Shogun getting the last two rounds on all cards. There were no 10-8's at all, which was surprising to a lot of people (including Dana White). Personally, I scored it a draw on the first viewing, and gave it to Shogun 48-46 on two subsequent watches. Well, Fight Metric believes it should have been a draw based on the stats.

When I re-watched the fight twice last night, I gave Shogun the first both times. Well, the stats don't see it that way. Hendo out landed Shogun 23-10 in significant strikes and did most of his damage in the clinch, leading 11-2 in significant strikes there. However, total strikes for the round were a lot closer, with Hendo edging it out 28-24. Hendo also had the guillotine attempt.

The second and third rounds were closer than I thought in terms of stats. Henderson led 25-20 in significant strikes and 35-28 overall in the second, again showing a significant advantage in landing strikes from the clinch. The third saw Hendo take significant strikes by a 21-17 margin, and 33-27 in overall strikes. Shogun also had a takedown and the leg lock. So while the stats were similar, there is statistical evidence that Henderson won the first three rounds. But then it all changes.

It was obvious Shogun took over in the fourth. Rua outlanded Henderson 23-8 in significant strikes and 33-9 overall, dominating in all areas of striking. He was also credited with three takedowns, while Hendo got one. Then the fifth rolled around, and it was one of the more statistically dominant rounds that I can remember.

Here are the stats for the fifth: Rua landed 26 significant strikes, Henderson landed zero. Shogun landed 79 total strikes, Hendo just 8. Granted, all of that was on the ground with Shogun on top, but still. Shogun just got the one takedown, but mounted Henderson five times in the round. Henderson was given credit for neutralizing three of those moves to mount. Still, just from looking at the statistics, it's clear that Shogun should have been given a 10-8 for that round, and that would have made the fight a draw.

Over the whole fight, Shogun led Henderson in significant strikes (96-77) and total strikes (191-113).

You can check out all the stats here.

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