UFC 136: Main Card Predictions

by Matthew Goldstein on Oct 7, 2011 12:50 AM EDT

The UFC arrives in Houston, TX with UFC 136 this Saturday, October 8th, at 9PM ET, live on Pay-Per-View.

This is a stacked fight card, headlined by two title fights, as well as potentially two title contention eliminator fights. UFC 136 features five main card fights, and six preliminary card fights. If you're a fight fan, you'll want to be in front of a TV for this one:

Preliminary Card

Steve "Robot" Cantwell vs. Mike "The Master of Disaster" Massenzio
Aaron "A-Train" Simpson vs. Eric "Red" Schaefer
Tiequan "The Wolf" Zhang vs. Darren "The Damage" Elkins
Stipe Miocic vs. Joey "The Mexicutioner" Beltran
Anthony "Showtime" Pettis vs. Jeremy "Lil' Heathen" Stephens
Demian Maia vs. Jorge "The Sandman" Santiago

Main Card

Melvin "The Young Assassin" Guillard vs. Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon
Nam Phan vs. Leonard "Bad Boy" Garcia
Chael Sonnen vs. Brian "All American" Stann
Jose "Junior" Aldo vs. Kenny "Kenflo" Florian
Frankie "The Answer" Edgar vs. Gray "The Bully" Maynard

Stay with me as I make my main card predictions and gambling suggestions. Without further ado, let's get on to the fights...

All gambling lines are provided courtesy of BestFightOdds.com.

Melvin "The Young Assassin" Guillard (46-9-3, 1NC, -312) vs. Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon (20-6, +310)

Guillard is coming into this fight on a hot streak, having won eight of his last nine fights and his last five in a row, and is looking to make his case for a title shot.

Lauzon, on the other hand, has gone in fits and starts in the UFC. Though he's built a 7-3 record inside the Octagon, he hasn't been able to win more than three in a row at any one time.

This is a tough match-up for Lauzon. Despite being the owner of impressive submission skills, which provide him with a distinct advantage over Guillard on the ground, Guillard has pretty good defensive wrestling and is by far a better, and more powerful, striker. I expect Guillard to work to keep this fight standing and punch his way to a victory, by knockout or decision.

From a betting standpoint, Lauzon's +310 line might tempt you, but I don't think he has a legitimate shot at taking this one. I'd stay away.

Pick: Guillard

Bet: Pass

Nam Phan (16-10, -210) vs. Leonard "Bad Boy" Garcia (19-7-1, +206)

Phan is coming off of two straight losses, and even though one of those losses was in a controversial split decision to Garcia in December 2010, he needs to get in the win column.

Garcia is coming off of a loss to Chan Sung Jung, whom he previously defeated via a controversial split decision in April 2010. The WEC import would do well to prove he deserved his first win over Phan here, as a second straight loss won't look good.

If their first fight was any indication, this will be another shot for shot standup battle. Neither fighter is particularly impressive on the ground, and both are content to trade shots. Though Garcia is supposedly a power puncher, he only has three wins by knockout, and is best known for his sloppy, albeit relentless, style. Phan, on the other hand, is a much more accurate, and technically sound striker. He should be able to get the better of exchanges and use his superior cardio to put a pace on Garcia. Though he wasn't correctly announced the winner last time, I expect he'll get his revenge on Saturday.

From a betting point of view, I can easily see someone putting a small bet down on Garcia. His style has a way of mesmerizing judges, making them forget that they actually need to score for effective striking, and not for whiffs. It isn't out of the question that he'll take this fight as well.

Pick: Phan

Bet: If you're feeling lucky, a small bet on Garcia

Chael Sonnen (26-10-1, -260) vs. Brian "All American" Stann (11-3, +231)

Sonnen returns to the cage more than a year after losing in a championship bout against Anderson Silva at UFC 117. Since then, he has gone through much publicized legal issues, and will be looking to rebound strong here against Stann.

Since dropping down to middleweight, Stann has won three straight, including notable knockouts of Chris Leben and Jorge Santiago. He will face his toughest challenge to date against Sonnen, the widely regarded #2 middleweight in the world.

If this fight plays out the way it's supposed to, Sonnen will take Stann down repeatedly, ground and pound, and ride him out to a decision or possibly open up an opportunity for a submission victory. I like to think that won't happen, however. Stann is the better, and certainly more powerful, striker. If he can bring improved defensive wrestling to the cage and keep this fight standing, I like his odds at winning. Though it may be the unpopular answer, I'm taking the underdog in an upset special.

From a betting point of view, if you share my view of this fight, Stann is a no brainer. Otherwise, at -260, Sonnen should only be used in a parlay.

Pick: Stann

Bet: I'm going with Stann. Otherwise, a Sonnen parlay works.

Jose "Junior" Aldo (19-1, -320) vs. Kenny "Kenflo" Florian (16-5, +300)

If we count back to the days of the WEC, Aldo will be looking to defend his featherweight title for the fourth time on Saturday night. Though he seemed a bit out of sorts in his last fight against Mark Hominick, Houston is hoping Aldo will be back in his typical violent form.

Florian will be fighting in his third title fight and fourth weight class. After debuting in TUF Season 1 as a middlweight, Florian eventually found his way down to lightweight, by way of welterweight, where he competed for most of his career. He successfully dropped down to featherweight at UFC 131, defeating Diego Nunes and earning a title shot.

This is a very tough fight for Florian. Aldo is an incredibly dynamic and violent striker, with seven of his nine WEC/UFC wins coming by way of KO or TKO. If Florian gets stuck on the feet with Aldo, its sure to be a very long (read: short) night for "Kenflo." If there's one place that Florian has the advantage, it's likely on the ground where he has stopped opponents 15 times, but it isn't easy to get Aldo on the ground. Shooting for a takedown carries the very real risk of catching a knee to the face, and Aldo is typically able to keep opponents at bay with his strikes.

Though it would be nice to see Florian finally get a belt around his waist, I don't see it happening against such a dominant striker.

From a betting point of view, I'd pass on this one. Aldo's line is too big to make any bet worth it, and I can't come up with a scenario in which Florian wins.

Pick: Aldo

Bet: Pass

Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (13-1-1, -126) vs. Gray "The Bully" Maynard (11-0-1, 1NC, +120)

Edgar and Maynard both enter this fight after fighting to a draw at UFC 125 on New Year's Day 2011. After being dominated by Maynard in the first round, Edgar battled his way back to earn the draw and remained the lightweight champion. Though nearly everyone had varying opinions on the result of the fight, there is no question that it was thrilling, and this third showdown should be no different.

This is a tough fight to predict, as we've seen such disparate results from these two fighters. In their first meeting, Maynard dominated Edgar en route to a unanimous decision victory. In the second fight, Maynard completely dominated the first round, but Edgar survived and turned the tables on Maynard, winning three of the next four rounds. So...which Edgar and Maynard show up this time?

I'm personally impressed by the heart that Edgar showed in the last fight, and think he's seen the worst that Maynard has to offer. If Edgar can avoid Maynard's power shots and use his wrestling to stay off of his back, he should be able to out box Maynard. I think we'll see more of Edgar's resilience and champion level work ethic in another back and forth battle.

From a betting point of view, really either of these fighters make for a good bet. A bet on whomever you think will win is fine in my book.

Pick: Edgar

Bet: Edgar

This article was originally published by the author for Bleacher Report. You can find this, and more like it, at The Fighting Post.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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Comments

I’m not getting the edgar love. What people are forgetting is that maynard didn’t just catch edgar with some wild haymaker after eating a few shots, he threw a moderately powered left hook which exploited a flaw in frankie’s defense after an even minute or so. Imo, in that amount of time he showed he has what it takes to beat edgar on the feet, and even if he falls behind on that department he can still take edgar down.

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by Hendo_One-Shot on Oct 7, 2011 1:27 AM EDT reply actions

There can be no disagreement that Maynard got the best of Edgar in the first fight. In the second fight, Maynard started hot, but not only survived an onslaught, he came back and bested Maynard in at least three of the next four rounds, if not all of the remaining rounds.

I think Edgar has seen the best Maynard has to offer, and he’s able to not only survive it, but trump it. I expect this fight to go more like the latter four rounds of the Edgar vs. Maynard series than the former.

Matthew Goldstein
@TheFightingPost

by Matthew Goldstein on Oct 7, 2011 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t get how anyone can pick one fighter to win but the other to bet on, unless you’re betting on a proposition such as “makes it through the first round” or something. Are there bets I don’t know about where you can bet on the loser of the fight and win money? It’s not like football where you can bet an underdog to cover a spread. Sorry, not getting the point of saying you pick one fighter but if someone’s “feeling lucky” they should bet the other guy. Or, if you say “a Sonnen parlay works,” what does that mean? A parlay with what? I’m not trying to be critical or argumentative. I’d honestly appreciate understanding more how the betting choices here are derived. Thanks.

(By the way, good job on the analysis as usual. My impression is you have a pretty good track record on your picks of who will win the fights, so I look forward to your breakdowns.)

.....

by Scabby Knuckle on Oct 7, 2011 2:54 AM EDT reply actions

Fair point, and perhaps I’m not doing a good enough job of explaining my betting rationale. Let’s look at the Sonnen vs Stann fight. I personally think that Stann can pull out the upset, so I’m willing to place a bet on Stann, who is the underdog. But my suggestion for those that DON’T think Stann will win is to use Sonnen in a parlay, IF you want to bet on that fight at all.

Similarly, in the Phan vs Garcia fight, I think that Phan will win, but I don’t want to bet on a -210 favorite. So if someone were to place a bet on that fight, I think the right bet would be a small wager on Garcia, who has gotten a win over Phan before, and has been known to get some questionable decisions.

So really, my fight picks and my fight bets aren’t always the same thing, because it may not always make sense to bet 1) on the fight at all, 2) on the favorite if they are a huge favorite, or 3) on the underdog if they have no shot of winning.

Did that help at all?

Matthew Goldstein
@TheFightingPost

by Matthew Goldstein on Oct 7, 2011 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions

i like your post

good “pass” on the florian fight. he will probably lose but -320 is crazy. florian has a 4 inch reach advantage and too much talent to go with it to bite on those odds. aldo obviously rules but other than faber, who has he beaten? i like hominick, brown and gambruyan but those guys were washouts at 155, where florian was perennial top 5. this one could be a surprise.

botton line – i think aldo takes it, but i’d need better odds on either side of the equation to put money down (florian’s line is tempting but not quite).

by Clifford J on Oct 7, 2011 1:14 PM EDT reply actions