UFC State of the Union: UFC 136 and the Lightweight Division
by Fraser Coffeen on Oct 5, 2011 11:12 AM EDT
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With so many fights coming up spread across seven different weight classes, it's easy to lose track of what's happening in every division. Here, we take a look at where a particular division stands right now, and where it's headed.
UFC 136 will be headlined by a Lightweight fight that is over three years in the making. Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard III is a rematch of my personal pick for 2011 Fight of the Year (so far) and a classic Lightweight title fight. But it's also the end of the line for a two man feud that has controlled the top of the division for the past year. Which means it's time to start looking ahead at what is yet to come. This is a somewhat new experience for the division - the last time anyone other than Edgar, Maynard, or last champion B.J. Penn fought for the Lightweight title was Diego Sanchez challenging at UFC 107 two years ago.
Next in Line:
Lightweight has always been a very tough division to reach the top of. It's a talent rich division, with so many tough names hovering at the top, that at any point, the apparent next in line can lose. Nowhere is that more apparent than in the cases of Jim Miller and Anthony Pettis.
Had things gone just a bit differently back at UFC 125, it would likely be Pettis challenging for the belt this weekend. But after the Edgar vs. Maynard rematch was set, Pettis decided to face Clay Guida, who put an end to the WEC champion's title run (for now at least). The other likely next #1 contender over the past few months was Jim Miller, but like Pettis, he was knocked off his perch, this time by Ben Henderson.
So, who's the next title challenger? Seems like it has to be the winner of Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson at the Fox debut show on November 12. If that fight is not broadcast, it will be criminal.
Key Match Ups:
A lot of good stuff on the way at Lightweight that should help us sort things out after Guida vs. Henderson, but as always at Lightweight, any of these fighters have a long road to a title challenge.
- Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon (UFC 136) - Guillard is on a great 7-1 run, knocking out many opponents spectacularly. He seems to have developed into the kind of mature fighter that is capable of a real run at the top. Lauzon had good success a few years ago, but he's gotten lost in the shuffle and is 2-2 since 2010. A win here would help, but he has some rebuilding to do.
- Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens (UFC 136) - WEC champion Pettis came into the UFC an automatic (if a bit questionable) #1 contender, but the Guida loss really cooled his run. He needs a big win here, but Stephens is a formidable opponent.
- Donald Cerrone vs. Dennis Siver (UFC 137) - Cerrone built a name for himself at the end of the WEC, claiming the interim WEC Lightweight title. It's been almost three years since he lost to anyone other than Henderson, and he's now 3-0 in the UFC with impressive wins. Siver had a forgettable run in the UFC back in 2007-2008, but then came back in 2009 and has gone 7-1 since. If Guillard wins this weekend, I would anticipate him facing the winner of this one next.
- Gilbert Melendez vs. Jorge Masvidal (Strikeforce) - This fight is a huge question mark, with Melendez in the works to jump over to the UFC any day now. If he does, this will be off, and he could potentially jump straight to the head of the line and challenge the Edgar vs. Maynard winner.
Future Contenders:
A few other Lightweights don't have things scheduled at the moment, but have to be considered "in the mix."
- Edson Barboza - Probably a bit early to put him on this list, but he's faced an increasingly tough level of competition and he is yet to lose. His next fight should keep moving him up.
- Jim Miller - Despite the Henderson loss, he's still in the upper levels of the division. With a 20-3 record, and a recent 7 fight UFC win streak, he's a real contender who could be just one big win away from a shot.
- Josh Thomson - Along with Melendez and Masvidal, he's the Strikeforce fighter with the best shot at making an impact in the UFC Lightweight division. Things have been a bit up and down for the ex-Strikeforce champion in the past few years, and he could use a win next time out.
- Matt Wiman - Wiman seems like the kind of career journeyman destined to have good fights in the midcard, but his last few performances have shown a new and improved Wiman. I can't see him actually challenging for the belt, but he belongs with these names.
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Masvidal...
Will definitely go to the UFC win or lose against Gil. He’s gonna provide other intriguing match-ups.
I’d like to think Aoki will head to the UFC too, but quite frankly he would be best suited to the featherweight division – same with JZ Cavalcante.
by Jorge Rodrigues Dias on Oct 5, 2011 11:09 AM EDT reply actions
Aoki to featherweight, alright since he seems small for the division. But is JZ really undersized for lightweight? He looks like a pretty big dude.
JZ's stocky, but not very tall. Just feel it'd be better for him.
Just like Jorge Santiago: he should fight at welterweight. These guys fight in Japan where locals rarely cut weight.
Whole different ballgame in the UFC.
by Jorge Rodrigues Dias on Oct 5, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Justin Wilcox
I think that if any Strikeforce Lightweight is going to make an impact in the UFC besides Melendez, it will be Justin Wilcox. Wilcox trains at AKA and has great wrestling, and has really improved his standup as of late.
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In my opinion, in the list under Future Contenders in the article, I would have put Justin Wilcox instead of Josh Thomson. Thomson is good, but I think there’s more upside with Wilcox.
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I like Noons, but his loss to Masvidal showed some holes in his game.
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holes is an undertatement.
the guy really suffers from not being as complete a fighter as he should be.
"The Glen Rice scandal is way out of line w/ the GOP's values. They're interested in fucking black people by the millions, not one at a time"
by Victor Rodriguez on Oct 5, 2011 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to give Noons some credit though. He did go five rounds with Nick Diaz at a weight class higher than his normal weight class. He generally has entertaining fights as well. He’s not a complete fighter for sure, but I am a fan of his nonetheless.
Check out the C&D Channel on YouTube at: http://www.youtube.com/user/Gobusiness123 for MMA reviews, predictions, analysis, and other MMA related content.
agreed.
i don’t question his heart, nor does his lack of well-roundedness make him a bad fighter. he deserves more credit, but he needs to tighten his game up.
"The Glen Rice scandal is way out of line w/ the GOP's values. They're interested in fucking black people by the millions, not one at a time"
by Victor Rodriguez on Oct 5, 2011 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Aoki isn't a muscle bound goon or anything...
but he’s just shy of six feet tall and is by no means small for 155. He would have to remove a leg.
by bigstupidsmile on Oct 5, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Hioki and Roop are both six feet tall, so it’s not necessarily outside the realm of possibility.
by discoandherpes on Oct 5, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I love watching Masvidal fight
I think his fights are exciting, I like his personality and everything he just has to do something very cool and flashy because everytime I hear/read his name immediately the image of his blue almost dead head caught in Toby Imada’s inverted triangle choke pops into my head.
Clay Guida really messed up everything
Not only was he never meant to be a contender in the first place, he was ruined anthony pettis’ title shot
Not that I dont like Guida :)
Messed up everything? Nah, he exposed a massive, gaping hole in Pettis’ game, that would have been exploited even more by Edgar or Maynard. Now he’s set himself up for a potential title fight. As a long-time UFC vet and one of the most popular lighter-weight fighters in the sport, it’ll be a really big fight should he beat Bendo and get a crack at the belt.
i dont think that it showed holes in pettis game. it more showed a lack of startegy.
Pettis,like jim miller kept trying for subs instead of getting back to their feet. They really didn’t even try sweeps.
by XingYi on Oct 5, 2011 11:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sure, he could’ve attempted more sweeps. But the fact is that he wouldn’t have to try sweeps, or be on his back in the first place, if he could’ve avoided getting taken down. Any fighter knows, regardless of how active you are, the majority of judges look at being on your back as a negative. On top of that, Pettis had a clear advantage on the feet. If he could’ve stayed on his feet, he would’ve. The gaping, apparent hole in his game was his wrestling. There’s no arguing that.
Pettis weakness is not wrestling
He just thought he could get something going off his back
He obviously didnt realize that Guida has made a living doing almost nothing in his top control game
Again, nothing on Guida, I love that guy
by IcyAbyss on Oct 5, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
But that’s the thing. His wrestling was clearly weak in that fight. He wasn’t pulling guard or intentionally getting taken down. He tried stuffing Guida’s shots but couldn’t do it. Pettis’ wrestling is alright, but it’s clearly not up to par with the outstanding wrestlers at the top of the division — Guida, Edgar, Maynard, Miller, Sherk, Guillard, etc.
Well
What you’re saying is reasonble, but I almost guarantee you that Bendo beats Guida, and Pettis already beat him (MMA math son).
Pettis is top tier lightweight
Oh, I’m not saying Pettis isn’t a solid fighter with the potential to contend for the belt sometime in the next year or two. He is. He’s an exciting fighter with a massive upside. But that doesn’t change the fact that he needs to improve his wrestling if he wants to truly contend at the highest levels of the division.
Well, shit
You’re not even really arguing with me
Good day sir :)
by IcyAbyss on Oct 5, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
amazing how the "log jam" really cleared up
with pettis, miller and g-sot all losing.
and i can’t believe how ben henderson, guida and even cerrone are back in the proverbial mix.
just goes to show how quickly things can get turned around. maybe ken flo shouldn’t have dropped down to featherweight!
I never thought about it before
but Florian-Edgar would have been pretty amazing. It would probably be a solid 5 rounds of some VERY technical fighting… kinda sad that I don’t get to see it now
You might if Fe loses!
If Edgar loses and drops to FW, he might need to fight Florian to get a title shot.
/it could happen
Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac?
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I choose Snatch!
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K1 Level Predictions Team Cut Man
the situation is less complicated now, but it’ll still get funky when Gilbert comes over for that unification bout [if it happens].
"The Glen Rice scandal is way out of line w/ the GOP's values. They're interested in fucking black people by the millions, not one at a time"
by Victor Rodriguez on Oct 5, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
In a perfect world, barring injuries and other problems, I think this is the way it should play out:
- Edgary/Maynard winner vs. Bendo/Guida winner in a February title fight
- Melendez defends his belt against Masvidal in December and then is next in line for a shot at the UFC belt sometime in May or June. If Melendez loses, next shot goes to Guillard should he beat Lauzon.
- The Cerrone/Siver winner meets Guillard (if he wins) in February or March for a future title shot.
Cerrone and Guillard won't fight outside of a championship fight
at least according to Guillard. Too bad, because I’d enjoy watching Melvin punch holes in him.
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
by Dave Strummer on Oct 5, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't like the possibility of Melvin vs. Siver
We already saw it and Melvin killed him dead. Why should he have to fight him again after doing that?
In all fairness, the fight was over 3 years ago...
Since then, both guys have gone on tears…and if they are both top contenders why not have them fight? Just because Melvin landed a big shot right off the bat in their first right? What are the chances of that happening twice? It could be a completely different fight.
PACIFIC RIM
in theaters
July 12th, 2013
by Chris Groves on Oct 5, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Siver simply does not have the tools to exploit Melvin's weaknesses
He’ll be a slower, smaller, weaker kickboxer, and will almost certainly get stomped again. I don’t particularly care for that fight either.
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
by Dave Strummer on Oct 5, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
It's just how I feel about rematches in MMA at the top level
Unless the original outcome was questionable (eg, the original GSP-Penn fight…), you’re looking to rebuild a drawing fighter by matching him with an old rival (eg, Faber-Pulver II) or the loser of the original fight has dramatically improved since then (GSP-Hughes I for example) then I don’t like rematching guys.
In the same way that Fitch has kept winning since he lost to GSP without really improving his game, Siver has simply beaten a lot of guys who match well with him stylistically. Not that he’s done badly – this run he’s on is fantastic – but where has he improved that could suggest he’d be able to change the outcome against Guillard?
I get what you’re saying, but I think you’re overlooking the fact that Siver has improved incredibly. After he lost to Guillard, he was 1-3 in the UFC and 4-5 in his previous nine fights. Now he’s on a 4 fight UFC win streak and is 8-1 iin his past nine fights. You don’t make a turnaround like that based simply on favorable match-ups, especially when those fights are taking place in the shark tank that is the UFC lightweight division. Siver has simply improved dramatically since the last time he fought Guillard.
wow that bendo hype train has been set to motion
El Nino would destroy Bendo, Bendo is a great fighter and fought an AMAZING fight against Jim Miller who I thought would be the next contender but I truly believe El Nino should fight for the title immediately, he has been destroying his opponents
I am willing to test myself against the toughest fighters in the world, in front of hundreds of thousands or even millions of fans, over and over again. Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose, but I always come to fight. I've been doing this for the past fourteen years, and I have at least a few more strong years left in me. What have you done in the past fourteen years other than act like a moron on this forum and hang on Anderson's nuts? - Dan Henderson.
If Henderson loses and Cerrone wins his next fight
Set up that threematch…I’d love to see it.
One thing that I love about Cerrone is that he has worked himself potentially into the proverbial ‘mix’ and not a single one of his fights in the UFC were part of regular booking circumstances.
Cerrone fought Kelly on short notice, Rocha fought him on short notice, and he and Oliveira fought each other as a short notice matchup where Cerrone replaced Makdessi and Oliveira replaced Taylor.
And now he has stepped in for Stout to take on Siver…I hope he wins
PACIFIC RIM
in theaters
July 12th, 2013
Henderson would probably sub Cerrone again
Donald is not even close to being in the mix because he’s fought no one good.
I respect your opinion even though it's wrong.
by SSreporters on Oct 5, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Charles Oliveira is pretty fucking talented and Cerrone schooled him. Horodecki, Varner, and Kelly are all solid mid-level fighters and Cerrone made them look silly.
Charles Oliveira has accomplished nothing
I hear all the time how he’s so talented yet he’s done nothing to support this idea that he’s some kind of blue chip prospect.
Sorry, but beating Oliveira is not a good win. It’s just a win.
he’s good, just not good enough to be considered an upper echelon guy. at least not yet.
"The Glen Rice scandal is way out of line w/ the GOP's values. They're interested in fucking black people by the millions, not one at a time"
by Victor Rodriguez on Oct 5, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Horodecki and Varner didn't even make the merger
And Varner had one stint in the UFC and was insta-subbed by Franca.
Cerrone also has a loss to that same Varner guy you just mentioned.
I respect your opinion even though it's wrong.
It would be really ironic if Ben Henderson gets a title shot before Pettis despite losing to Pettis for #1 contender
Him or El Nino are going to challenge next. Josh Thompson won’t ever debut in the UFC since he’ll get injured
Twitter @MaZZM
http://www.mazzznet.com/
I would love to see Thomson paired up with a WEC
and get his ass kicked. He talked crap about WEC guys being highly ranked back in the day, he talked crap about it ‘failing’ when it was merged…so f’ck him.
PACIFIC RIM
in theaters
July 12th, 2013
by Chris Groves on Oct 5, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, I don’t think that’s entirely fair. If I remember correctly, Thomson was a little upset with what he thought was unwarranted rankings and exposure for the WEC guys, as they were unproven when he himself was a guy who had been around for a long time and fought some very good fighters. In retrospect, we look at the success of guys like Henderson and Cerrone in the UFC and it’s clear that it was actually warranted. But at the time, Thomson had a point.
Maynard / Penn fast-tracked if both win their next fight
Not because there aren’t a ton of credible challengers, but because none of them have any casual name recognition to bargain with and BJ’s a way bigger draw.
Penn's at welterweight!
KEMvP
"You know Joe, if Keith Jardines last name was Johnson, the nickname 'The Dean of Mean' wouldn't work at all."
Yeah, but he's always been best at lightweight.
If Frankie loses the belt, then Penn should jump all over a return to 155.
Xtreme Couture- The best never rest! The girl in my av is Kari Sweets (you're welcome).
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by ElliotMatheny on Oct 5, 2011 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Melendez gets the next shot
The fact that Dana is even talking about bringing him over gives me the feeling that it will be for a title shot. I don’t think you can give Bendo the next title shot if he beats Guida. I think Melendez will get the next shot and that the winner of Bendo-Guida will have to fight someone else before a title shot.
Probably Melendez
But I’d give Guida way more of a chance against Edgar than most people would.
I respect your opinion even though it's wrong.
How would he win?
I don’t see it.
I’d probably give him a better chance vs Maynard just because he could possibly outwork him, but I still think it would be a long shot.
Edgar doesn't have the power to hurt Guida on the feet
He could probably frustrate him with his movement but Guida is just as crazy.
Maynard would probably outwrestle Clay.
I respect your opinion even though it's wrong.
i think both maynard and edgar beat guida handily
i also think guida loses to bendo. overall i’m just not a believer that clay guida is a legitimate title challenger. same goes with dennis siver they’re both good fighters, but simply not elite
"I have smoked weed with alot of UFC champions" - Joe Rogan
"Você ta fudido. Se vai levar muita porrada, ta ligado?" - Anderson Silva
by milk72 on Oct 5, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We're prolly saying the same thing but
I think Guida’s a legitimate contender, but will never break into the elite. He’s tightening up his game a lot, but I see him hangin out between top 5 and top 10 for a while, without ever getting the belt.
:p - orcus
Most of the time I am a rather quiet fellow, who likes to read about Philosophy, Mathematics and History, but like most people I also have a deep appreciation of sex and violence... - John Danaher
i'm very high on ben henderson
i think he beats guida and potentially gets a title shot. Melendez isnt gonna get a instant title shot, i think Dana’s waiting till Guillard stomps Lauzon to set that fight up for later in the year.
Bendo can challenge the winner of Maynard-Edgar and the winner of that takes on Guillard-Melendez. 155 has gotta be the most exciting division in the sport right now, and it was so recently that people said that BJ cleaned out the division. I’d also love to see BJ back at 155 at some point, he still has to be regarded as an elite lightweight.
"I have smoked weed with alot of UFC champions" - Joe Rogan
"Você ta fudido. Se vai levar muita porrada, ta ligado?" - Anderson Silva
I think if Bendo beats Guida he won't get the title shot
I just think that his loss to Pettis is still recent and that he would need one more win. I think if Bendo beats Guida and Guillard beats Lauzon you have to have Guillard vs Bendo. But if Guida wins I can see him having a better chance of getting a title shot as he won’t want to fight Guillard or Cerrone
You can add Sotiropoulos' name to the Miller-Pettis list.
He was arguably ahead of Miller before he lost to Siver. Evan Dunham was up there too. A lot has really happened since UFC125.
The author of this piece seems to be overlooking the push Guillard is getting, is he not the favourite for the next shot? His next opponent will be either Melendez or Edgar/Maynard.
I wish he was fighting someone a bit tougher than Lauzon, but this article reads a bit weird because of the low key way it talks about Guillard who should be in the pole, unless those title shot rumours are false.
The reason is the Bendo vs. Guida fight. Both Bendo and Guida are coming off of wins over guys who were regarded as the number one contender at the time. It follows that the winner of that fight is going to be deemed the top contender. Add that to the fact that Guillard is beating on guys who aren’t close to top 10 and he’s going to need another win after Lauzon in order to get his shit.
With the exception of Dunham — he was pretty highly ranked at the time. The point still remains that Guillard is going to need another win after Lauzon to get a shot, in light of Guida v Bendo and Melendez possibly coming over.
I totally and utterly agree with you, but the UFC are pushing him pretty hard and seem to want him in that shit. For me, Guida – Bendo winner gets the shot, but I’m just hearing the UFC wants to give it to Melvin. Hope I’m wrong.
Your point? He deserves to get pushed hard he should have been in contention
A long time ago.
by Tairy Hesticles on Oct 5, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh?
1. That he should be in the poll.
2. That the article doesn’t acknowledge that due to timing he has every chance of getting the next shot.
3. You need a least a comma in that sentance somewhere.
and when should he have been in contention previously? When he lost to Rich Clementi? When he lost to Nate Diaz? Or when he was beating studs like Waylon Lowe? I’m sure he himself would admit that under Jackson he’s made big strides as a fighter, just a shame he isn’t getting top 15 ranked fighters to prove that against.
If Gil comes over early, he might face Melvin. If he beats Jorge and waits for the new year, he'll go right to the top.
Melvin might end up fighting The loser of Edgar vs Maynard to earn his title shot.
Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac?
George Carlin
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I choose Snatch!
Zakree
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K1 Level Predictions Team Cut Man
Still hoping that one day Aoki will be in the UFC
Not saying he’ll even be a title contender but guys awesome to watch
The key is to hit the guy in the jaw really hard before the other guy does it to you.
by FreeLightningLee on Oct 5, 2011 5:04 PM EDT reply actions
I think Sam Stout should at least be mentioned in the "in the mix" conversation
Especially since Wiman is there. Stout has beaten Wiman and Lauzon already and had a great KO of Yves Edwards not too long ago. And Yves has looked good since his return to the UFC. He has won four of his last 5 with his one loss coming in a split decision to Jeremy Stephens in a fight that I thought Stout won. He was scheduled to fight Denis Siver(in a fight he pulled out of due to the untimely death of Shawm Tompkins) so the UFC wanted to give him a step up in competition. I would still like to see him face Siver or Cerrone when he comes back or if that doesn’t work maybe a fight with Cole Miller, unless he has dropped to 145 by then.
I love Sam Stout, but have absolutely no confidence in him putting together a serious run. But yeah, I see your point about Wiman being in.
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by Fraser Coffeen on Oct 5, 2011 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I love him to but don’t see him fighting for the title in reality. It was more cause Wiman is mentioned as you said. And Stout has developed some great takedown defense. But the UFC is funny and he could have a crazy performance in a fight and media and fans would be saying he is a contender. That’s how the fight game is. If Pettis has a crazy performance against Stephens this weekend he will be in Dana White’s “mix” again.
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