Welcome to the UFC Lightweight Divison! You won't get a title shot until 2014!
by BVandDietPepsi on Jan 3, 2011 3:51 AM EST
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PrintLet's say you're a world class fighter at 155 lbs. You're either a green, wet-behind-the-ears prospect hungry to make your mark on the world of Mixed Martial Arts, or you're a well-established vet that has honed your craft all over the world but finally has a shot in the bigtime. The UFC has just signed you to a 3-fight contract. As any great athlete does, you want to be the champion. The best in the world, and have Dana White fasten that big gold belt around your waist.
Well, I hope you packed a lunch, because you're going to be waiting for about three years.
The UFC Lightweight division has a waiting list longer than Green Bay season tickets. And much like you've considered sneaking into your grandfather's room and putting a pillow over his face to acquire those, you, as a newbie, are going to have to go to some pretty drastic measures to move up in line.
Let me try and break it down.
Being generous with a four-month window between title fights, we'll give an April/May timeline for Edgar-Maynard III. If the UFC is really as gung-ho about the Toronto card as they say they are, that would make a great co-main event.
April 30, 2011
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard III
After that fight, and for your sanity's sake, we'll say that it was a clear-cut win for someone, the champion, hereby referred to as MAYGAR will fight again in August/September against Anthony Pettis. If the rumors are true and Pettis went to Dana and took one for the team after the draw, no way Dana jeopardizes his title shot.
August/September, 2011
MAYGAR vs. Anthony Pettis
Now that all the contractual obligations have been fulfilled, we move on.
Overlooked in this timeline is a very important three-week stretch in the Lightweight division from late February to early March. George Sotiropoulos takes on Dennis Siver at 127 and Jim Miller takes on Kamal Shalorus at 128. If both fighters win (likely), they both have a claim for the next shot. So with the UFC loving #1 contender fights (and truthfully, so do I, lends structure to rankings), I say they probably pull the trigger on Miller vs. Sotiropoulos for the #1 contender sometime around this fight or a little earlier.
If either one of Miller or Sotiropoulos lose (semi-likely), the winner gets the title shot, I'd have to think. Nobody else in the division is that close yet. No, not even Clay after beating the Takanori Gomi poster off all of your walls.
If they both lose (hilariously unlikely), then that's a whole other bag of hot monkey urine. But we'll play the odds and say that doesn't happen.
So after the autumn fight for the title, the champion, hereby referred to as MAYGARTIS has a probable New Year's fight against....
January 1, 2012
MAYGARTIS vs. MillerOpoulos
Now after this, we've had a year from today in which fighters have advanced or receded through the rankings. You, hotshot newb, might have even gone 2-0 or 3-0 in that time. Doesn't matter. By this timeline, George Sotiropoulos would have had to win eight fights in a row just for a #1 contender's fight.
So in a year, despite your impressive showings, rook, you'll probably be on the prelims of a Fight Night. That's how nasty this division is.
After a year of lightweight fights with a lot of guys on good runs, I'd pick two from the following list. One fights in April, one fights in August:
Dennis Siver (if he beats Sotiropoulos), Evan Dunham, Kenny Florian, Sean Sherk, Ben Henderson, Donald Cerrone, Shane Roller, Kamal Shalorus (if he beats Miller), Jeremy Stephens, Melvin Guillard, and Clay Guida.
At least one of these dudes will be due by April and at least one will be due by August after fighting each other off.
For shits and giggles, I'm thinking Guida for April and Henderson for August
April 2012
MAYGARTISMILPOULOS vs. Clay Guida
August 2012
MAYGARTISMILPOULOSDA vs. Ben Henderson
So here we are, your first true chance. A Lightweight Title fight scheduled for December/January 12/13. Now this is only if everything breaks well for you.
But there's just one problem. The second wind.
Second wind? Allow me to explain. Call it the Nate Marquardt-effect if you must. It's been long enough that past champs and contenders have picked themselves up off the canvas, regrouped, and pout together an impressive streak. By this time you might be 6-0 or 7-0 at best, but fighters like the loser of Edgar-Maynard III, the loser of MAYGARD-Pettis, the loser of the Sotiropoulos-Miller #1 contender fight, and others have built themselves back up. If you've run through the competition, you might find yourself in a #1 contender match against someone here. Maybe. If you're lucky.
So if you win that....
DECEMBER/JAN 12-13
The Champ vs. You
And did you see what you had to do? And that is an absolute best-case scenario. You going through at least 6-7 opponents undefeated while catching a lot of breaks and avoiding big signings like Eddie Alvarez, Gilbert Melendez, Shinya Aoki, Tatsuya Kawajiri, or Josh Thomson plus the WEC lightweights.. Odds are you're probably looking at three years easily, possibly four.
OR
You could drop ten pounds and have a title match next month. Just saying.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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Pretty amusing
What a shark tank!
I thought you were gonna bitch about how unfair and long it takes but you were pretty straight up. It’s just a tough division. I honestly don’t think a noob deserves a title shot in such a strong division without beating every 2nd guy in the top 24 (excl the champ)… that would be 12-0 against some damn tough competition (4 years!!!). But it’s the only fair way to prove you are better than them and deserve the shot, right? Sure I think it’s possible to move 3 ladder spots instead of 2, and that’s 8 fights… win them all takes 3 years. So I totally agree with your timeline. If for some reason you’re really popular, maybe Dana lets you challenge a guy 4 positions up every 3 months. That’s 6 fights over 1.5 years, the absolute minimum theoretical timeline in my opinion… and impossible to happen in this current environment.
Even though you acted like a dick last time I said something to you
I have to admit you write pretty well. Like the piece and rec’d it.
OHHHHH! OH MY GOODNESS DID YOU SEE THAT?! He ran up the wall like a ninja and landed a high kick! Unbelievable! I've never seen anything like that, it's like something out of a movie!
One thing is for sure.
Pettis got an insane sweetheart deal by beating Bendo.
Boo.
Bolts from the Blue // "It's a league game, Smokey." - Walter Sobchak
Bloody Elbow // "Mongo only pawn in game of life." - Mongo
Except the question: who is the best fighter?
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito Ortiz on Vitor Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jan 4, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not so sure Pettis is guaranteed a shot anymore
Dana certainly wasn’t willing to put a stamp on “Pettis next” when Ariel asked him, and honestly, it’s not like he has a sit-on-it record to back him up. He has one top-25 opponent, in a fight that was the only top-25 opponent for either guy, and is on just a 4-fight winning streak in a minor league organization. Giving the auto-shot was questionable at best, but at least somewhat defensible as a sales move, but now it becomes suddenly making his shot one so gilt-edged he could sit on it for 8-months. What’s more, I think he loses what, in my humble, was the true appeal to the UFC for that fight — it was going to be an opportunity for their champ, a fighter viewed as boring, to finally go out and look impressive and finish a guy. Well, while Frank and Gray may not be considered the most exciting, still, they can at least sell them as being in an absolute classic.
The reasonable thing to do with Pettis, since now that they committed to the shot they can’t just toss him in with a mid-level guy like would be his rightful place, would be to pair him with G-Sot or Miller for #1 Contender. Of the two, Miller makes more sense. His fight is farther off for Pettis to get ready. His event could use a #1 Contender clout for co-headline. And Miller is the only guy to actually say he thinks the majority of the WEC will be sent packing in short order, so you have the chance to sell a UFC-WEC thing as well.
Just Blog Guy - http://JustBlogGuy.wordpress.com/
Very nicely written
Just thinking about all the possible options makes my head hurt. With the WEC guys, this division may be the deepest in the UFC. Get signed now, you’re in for a rollercoaster ride. Holy shit.
OR
You could drop ten pounds and have a title match next month. Just saying.
I’ve got a feeling several guys are going to try and jump on that one.
by who me on Jan 3, 2011 8:41 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
You’re not the only one. Amusing article, good writeup @ BV
Wha...What did you say?! Depending on your answer I may have to kick your ass!
"I know I've got to get stitches, so I'm real mad right now." - Dwyane Wade en route to dropping 45 on the Houston Rockets with Hakeem among the audience.
SUPREME'REEM!!!!
by The One Who Wears The Crown on Jan 3, 2011 8:58 AM EST up reply actions
Thank you a ton for the apprecation, everyone!
Even you lowell. This was fun to write. Really do appreciate it.
good write-up, sucks to be an average-sized combat athlete since you have to compete against so many more people than the big boys. There should be research done to re-arrange the weightclasses.
So most LWs are naturally 170-180 pound men. That’s somewhere close to the average weight for a lot of highly populated, developed areas of the world that produce fighters (USA, Canada, Brazil, England, Eastern Europe, with Asia and Latin America probably being a bit smaller). LW should always be the deepest division because it has the largest pool to draw from. A lot of fighting-based athleticism also transfers well up into WW range (180-200 pound men). Once you get above 200pounds, it becomes much more difficult to find the volume of athletic people you find from 160-200, however, the 200+pound athletes that do exist are often breathtaking. This would require a good bit more population-band (weight-based) research, but i’m going to guess that MW may actually be drawing from a bad population section, kind of a weight in limbo between the average size that produces tons of great athletes, and that large size that produces the jaw-droppers. I’m not suggesting more than 1 more weight class, but I do think the current demarcation points may be too arbitrarily selected. I know this doesn’t look much different, but i wonder if a subtle change like 130(FlyW), 140 (BW),150 (FW), 160 (LW), 175 (WW), 195 (MW), 210 (LHW), HW wouldnt work better. Depending on research, I think by bumping the lower weight classes up 5 pounds, you might actually be able to split up guys in the most common weight range a bit better.
a life: it's the shit that happens while you're waiting for moments that never come -Lester Freamon
by eastcoastatlas on Jan 3, 2011 11:48 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
I’m also of the opinion that i hate how people seem pre-disposed to paying more money and being more drawn to very large men as athletes, because it causes the men who actually have the hardest road to the top (LW/WW) to be paid less than the HWs who, frankly, on pure skill, are largely much less talented than the smaller men.
a life: it's the shit that happens while you're waiting for moments that never come -Lester Freamon
by eastcoastatlas on Jan 3, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
This I disagree with
While I agree that fighter pay should ideally be equal across the weight spectrum, I’d argue that being big, effectively, takes a huge amount of skill in and of itself. Just because they are slower and look more sluggish does not mean that big men are less skilled. They spend just as much time in the gym training as a smaller man, and there’s no evidence that supports the notion that bigger men are slower learners.
Maybe it’s true that since really BIG guys (LHW and up) are fewer in population, the pool of talent is smaller and therefore the calibur of athlete is lower; however, I think that anyone who is truly BIG, and physically capable of performing well and enduring the physical strain of competing at an elite level in combat sports, is a damn incredible athlete. Especially when you consider how much greater the actual physical forces are at higher weights. Guys hit harder, put more weight on you, high- elevation throws are much more powerful; not to even mention that you’re carrying around much more weight. Sure, bigger men generally have bigger frames to accomodate their stature, but we’re all just made out of the same flesh, bones, & sinew.
There also may be a validity to the opinion that claims that since North America is one of the biggest MMA hubs, we lose some of the physically gifted big men to higher paying mainstream sports like Basketball, Football, Baseball, even Hockey.
But there really is no denying the gravity of 2 extremely large men doing battle. Say what you will about MMA being a sport, you can’t ignore the fact that spectacle is the driving economic force behind it. Brock Lesnar might not have the most complete skillset, but he was at the absolute top of the heap at HW, and drew much larger than anyone else in years past. Chuck is a big man himself, and was the top draw of the UFC for a very crucial growth period. Tyson & Ali were HUGE in boxing, and in media/ pop culture; college dorm rooms are littered with black and white posters of Cassius Clay standing menacingly over a felled Sonny Liston, and i’d say the majority of them have little to no knowledge of boxing.
MMA, like any other sport, is primarily a visual spectacle, and physical size is undeniably a factor in how we perceive these athletes. Because, at a very basic level, when we’re watching elite heavyweights, we’re watching the most dangerous unarmed combatants in the world. They are more powerful men.
You can read my work over @ http://www.headkicklegend.com/
"I swear it upon Zeus an outstanding runner cannot be the equal of an average wrestler."
-Socrates
by ElliotMatheny on Jan 4, 2011 7:28 AM EST up reply actions
This should be fleshed out into a fanpost.
OHHHHH! OH MY GOODNESS DID YOU SEE THAT?! He ran up the wall like a ninja and landed a high kick! Unbelievable! I've never seen anything like that, it's like something out of a movie!
by lowellthehammer on Jan 3, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I second this
Interesting thesis in the making (and I think a really supportable one from what we’re seeing right now).
by LBo on Jan 3, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
To add to this
I always liked the PRIDE 160 class for LWs. Guys like Nick Diaz and Sakurai looked their best at 160 IMO.
OHHHHH! OH MY GOODNESS DID YOU SEE THAT?! He ran up the wall like a ninja and landed a high kick! Unbelievable! I've never seen anything like that, it's like something out of a movie!
by lowellthehammer on Jan 3, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
In this country at least, the availability of 200+lb fighters is further limited
by the demand for those athletes in other sports. If you’re an American with the size and strength of Brock Lesnar and you’re an athlete, nine times out of ten you are playing football. As MMA grows more popular, it should be able to siphon off a larger percentage of those athletes.
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
by Dave Strummer on Jan 3, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Thousands of college football players athletic careers end due to them not being good enough to get drafted into the NFL or they just don’t last in the NFL. As MMA becomes a viable sports option then there will be plenty of large athletes giving it a look. Still the demographics are going to break down better for the smaller sizes.
Heavyweight boxing lost most of its athletes to basketball and football, and top fighters there historically have made 20-30 million dollars (Holyfield, Tyson, etc) a fight. No MMA fighter has, over the course of their career, probably made as much as Holyfield did in either fight with Lennox Lewis in every fight they’ve ever had combined. I don’t think it becomes a more viable option for top shelf heavyweight level athletes ever. The only guys it will appeal to are people who specialize in generally Olympic sports with little commercial appeal, and that’s precisely what we’ve seen happen.
by VirtualBalboa on Jan 3, 2011 8:20 PM EST up reply actions
Well we're talking about fractional changes
I’m not suggesting that 10 million Pop Warner linebackers will all of a sudden decide to train BJJ, but if MMA becomes more popular, and more young people start following it, you might start to see more guys like Jon Jones — hyper-athletic big guys — coming down the pike in MMA.
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
by Dave Strummer on Jan 3, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
Jon Jones is one of the kind of guys I speak of. He was a junior college wrestler.
by VirtualBalboa on Jan 3, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
the Brendan Schaubs of the world. He’s a pretty damn good athlete, decent college fullback/linebacker who just didn’t stick in the NFL, but he’d actually been training jiu-jitsu and boxing as a hobby in college. not all guys can afford that or finagle a way to do it
a life: it's the shit that happens while you're waiting for moments that never come -Lester Freamon
by eastcoastatlas on Jan 3, 2011 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
All they have to do is sell a few autographs, or maybe a game jersey or two and they will have the money they need to train.
by TheBiggertheyare... on Jan 4, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
I've always wondered
What would the mma landscape be like if super athletes like Kobe Bryant or Lebron James trained mma from childhood instead of basketball
Why add weight classes? I think the greater problem is the assumption that by winning 5-6 fights in the UFC, you should automatically deserve a title shot. These guys need to earn it by beating other top contenders. Gomi hasn’t done that. Cerrone hasn’t done that. Henderson hasn’t done that. Pettis hasn’t done that. Guida hasn’t done that. Sherk hasn’t done that. So no one has made a real case for themselves. They need to go out, collect wins that matter, and make the demand happen instead of putting around beating the Dennis Sivers and Melvin Guillards of the world.
by VirtualBalboa on Jan 3, 2011 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
it's funny
About 5 or 6 months back I was arguing this point about the HW division never being able to be as deep as the lighter weights since far less of the population is big enough to compete at that size and it ended up being like a 3 day argument about how the HW Division was the deepest now… long story short it’s refreshing to see people using actual common sense. You are right on the money.
"I’m anti-stalling, not anti-wrestling." - lowellthehammer
very nice
I’ve said it before, the opening up of the lightweight division was the story of the year for me in 2010.
And don’t forget the possiblities of a newcomer surging up the ranks or Jose Aldo dipping his feet into the waters.
No one can predict what the LW division will look like in a year and a half.
:D
OR
You could drop ten pounds and have a title match next month. Just saying.
SUPREME'REEM K-1 Champ!
Semper Fi'
Pain don't hurt...
Yeah that was really the corker
If I’m the LW fighter in BV’s construct, I’m reaching for the rubber suit.
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
by Dave Strummer on Jan 3, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
When you have a large number of top fifteen fighters who’ve done nothing but beat top 20-40 fighters and not each other, you aren’t going to have a real separation of class and thus a pooling of guys at about the same level. Look, let’s be flat honest here: Baring a miracle turnaround in a guys career, such as the one Chael Sonnen miraculously had about the same time he started using lots and lots and lots of synthetic testosterone, when you look at that big pool of guys (many of which are untested WEC talents), they just aren’t going to get there. That goes not just for the Kamal Shaloruses of the world, but also the Clay Guidas and Jeremy Stephens types who’ve had seemingly countless opportunities in the past to extend themselves to the next tier and never made it.
The UFC really isn’t doing themselves any favors to separate a lot of them right now: Sotiropolous fighting Siver isn’t a step up in class. But then, what’s the rush? Let the guy build himself over a course of a few years, as has been the case. MMA fans are often way too quick to deem guys world title challengers. They don’t want to see development, they want to see them fight for belts ASAP or else, and for young kids like Pettis, that’s stupid. Rushing a guy like that into a fight he isn’t ready for can do real damage to a fighter. They get not just physically punished, but it often saps their confidence.
by VirtualBalboa on Jan 3, 2011 4:00 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
You said it better then I could.
I drink.
I won my fantasy football leauge, so I'm kind of awsome...kind of.
Semper Fi'
Pain don't hurt...
It's kind of the same at every division
You’re not going to get a title shot for at least 18 months unless it’s at WW maybe.
Reppin' the NYMMAI.
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Follow me on Twitter
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Big Country could have gone from UFC debut to #1 contender in eight months
Had he beat Dos Santos.
by BVandDietPepsi on Jan 3, 2011 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
Which just as easily could have been reneged on. Its Big Country. Making Roy Nelson your #1 contender is something no major league promotion would do unless forced.
by VirtualBalboa on Jan 3, 2011 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
Technically two things
Big Roy “started” in August of 2009 and he wouldn’t have gotten his title shot until April or May of 2011. That’s around 18 months.
And who says Dana would’ve kept his word had Roy won. Ask Fitch.
Reppin' the NYMMAI.
Black Lesnar aka Slap ya Favorite MMA Writer
Follow me on Twitter
Read me at WatchKalibRun . Imma write til the wheels fall off.
12/30/10 The day I made the MMaManiacs cry.
Don't subscribe to C.A.B.L.E.
by S.C. Michaelson on Jan 3, 2011 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
Not to be an ass, but he said becoming the #1 contender, not actually fighting for the title
by TheBiggertheyare... on Jan 4, 2011 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
And Chael went from debut to title shot in 16 months
No disrespect, just playing devil’s advocate.
by BVandDietPepsi on Jan 3, 2011 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
16 months 18 months
close enough.
I won my fantasy football leauge, so I'm kind of awsome...kind of.
Semper Fi'
Pain don't hurt...
Yep
Reppin' the NYMMAI.
Black Lesnar aka Slap ya Favorite MMA Writer
Follow me on Twitter
Read me at WatchKalibRun . Imma write til the wheels fall off.
12/30/10 The day I made the MMaManiacs cry.
Don't subscribe to C.A.B.L.E.
by S.C. Michaelson on Jan 3, 2011 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
He just so happened to suddenly start TRT and had a testosterone/epitestosterone ratio way past what is allowed in his finest moment. Only the most hardened of apologists would sit there and say Chael was 100% legit there – in turn, it casts a pall on everything he did.
by VirtualBalboa on Jan 3, 2011 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
I consider Sonnen a dishonorable d-bag of the highest order, but there is nothing in his test results to lead one to believe his actual total testosterone levels were any higher than the normal range.
"Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it."
-Mark Twain
"If I tell you I'm good, you would probably think I'm boasting. If I tell you I'm no good, you know I'm lying..."
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-smoogy2
by The American Ronin on Jan 4, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Both his 1st and 2nd samples landed outside the range that is considered the maximum acceptable for a testosterone/epitestosterone ratio. So, that is not true.
by VirtualBalboa on Jan 6, 2011 2:03 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting read
And probably pretty accurate. The immediate rematch sets things back a minimum 4 mos., which has to be disheartening to anyone even close to title contention. I would like to see all the titles get defended more regularly, like 3-4 times per year.
This would of course mean not holding up divisions for TUF, which I have no interest in anymore. You would still have injury delays, like we have now with Velasquez, but barring those these guys should defend their belts every 3-4 mos.
One major contributor to the clutter at the top, and perhaps the most significant is the 2 immediate rematches offered. Instead of BJ v Edgar, BJ v Edgar, Edgar v Maynard, Edgar v Maynard we could have seen BJ v Edgar, Edgar v Maynard, Edgar v Sot and be awaiting an upcoming bought bewteen Edgar/Sot against Jim Miller. Im not saying either way is right or wrong, but giving the average UFC fighter fights about 2 times per year, these 2 rematches have essentially added an additional 12 month wait to any title contenders.
Well I’m not disagreeing, but rematches are part of the game. Shogun-Machida, Penn-Edgar, Silva-Sonnen (had Sonnen passed his drug test), were just in the past year.
Sometimes they’re warrented, sometimes they’re not.
by BVandDietPepsi on Jan 4, 2011 1:51 AM EST up reply actions
What If ??
That’s pretty accurate….
But what if Aldo has a 2 easy fights at 145…and decides to move up?? i have a feeling Dana wud accommodate him wit maybe 1 fight at 55’ before givin him a title shot (ala vitor belfort and anderson silva when he 1st arrived) i think his hype train will be enough to carry him ahead of most lighweights
That’s just my thinking i could be wrong
by Rosco_Patterson on Jan 4, 2011 10:17 AM EST reply actions
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