Manny Pacquiao's Departure Leaves Hole in HBO's Programming MMA Could Fill

When Manny Pacquiao signed a deal to leave HBO for Showtime for his upcoming fight against Shane Mosley it marked yet another in a series of blows to HBO's former status as the premier home for boxing. The network had long been established as the home of the best fighters and fights, but in recent years Showtime has picked up their game and started to offer bouts that are far more compelling to the average fan. There also seems to be a more well thought out strategy of how to approach the sport at Showtime.

There have been periods of talks between HBO and the UFC to bring the world's premier MMA promotion into the HBO Sports family but all have stalled for the same reasons as any UFC network deals. Simply, HBO refuses to give up control of production and the UFC knows that their style of production is a part of their branding and simply too valuable to give up to any network. One wonders if the current failing state of HBO's boxing department may open the door for talks to resume with the network accepting the UFC's conditions.

Thomas Hauser's fantastic piece at Max Boxing on Pacquiao's departure sheds light on HBO's problems:

Non-competitive fights, low ratings, inconsistent announcing, and stale production values have been ongoing problems.
 
The network that brought boxing fans the scintillating Gatti-Ward and Barrera-Morales trilogies now can’t even make the first in what would be a trilogy-worthy series of fights.
 
2011 looks to be a repeat of the erratic programming that has typified HBO boxing in recent years. A lot has been made of the upcoming bout between Timothy Bradley and Devon Alexander. In a vacuum, it’s an intriguing fight. Bradley and Alexander are good young fighters but HBO is spending close to $4,000,000 on the license fee, marketing, and production costs for a fight that most likely will draw a poor rating because only hardcore boxing fans are interested in it. Also, styles make fights and this could turn out to be a boring styles match-up.
 
Worse, HBO has mortgaged its future to make Bradley-Alexander. Each fighter (in tandem with his respective promoter) has been guaranteed a second fight for a license fee of at least $3,000,000. This means that, unless their first encounter warrants a rematch, three fights involving these two boxers will command almost 25% of HBO’s license fees in 2011.

Of course, there are major obstacles in this line of thinking. The UFC's deal with Versus puts them squarely in bed with NBC with the Comcast/NBC merger. While Zak Woods did a nice job of explaining why Versus turning into the NBC Sports network is probably a long ways off, it's hard to see the UFC being able to have a deal with Time Warner as well as Comcast/NBC. Still, the UFC's relationship with Viacom (Spike TV) has not caused any sort of issue, so maybe the door is somewhat open.

Aside from the production struggle, there is the little matter of pay-per-view. HBO would have to be willing to air UFC events knowing that there is no PPV money at the end of the rainbow. It would be a big change from the boxing model of building up fighters to be able to eventually get them on PPV and make big money. Of course, HBO has had to scale back on their number of boxing PPVs dramatically thanks to not doing a good job of actually building up their fighters. Respected boxing attorney Pat English spoke to that in Hauser's Max Boxing piece:

"HBO has to get back an understanding of what its subscribers and potential subscribers want to see. There is a fundamental lack of understanding at HBO that people have to care about the fighters who are on HBO if HBO is going to get good ratings. There should be a premium on fights and fighters that are fan-friendly. There should not be an award for being associated with certain people who are in favor at HBO."

There are many other significant issues behind the scenes at HBO Sports that are detailed in the Hauser article but there is a desperate need for a shot in the arm. With Showtime airing Strikeforce events, HBO would have the opportunity to counter in a huge way by landing the UFC for a handful of yearly dates.

Of course, this is all likely to be wasted speculation as the initial hurdle of production control is likely to never be cleared and HBO will probably just throw huge amounts of cash at the next Pacquiao fight and lure him back.

But hey, what's wrong with a little speculation?