It's that time again!! Time to cast our eyes over potential trends and patterns within our beautiful sport in an attempt to predict where its all heading and discuss why things have happened the way they have.
If you like graphs and numbers and all things geeky, please, continue on!
Well, lets get the ball rolling. Below are a couple of graphs that represent the different way in which fights are finished in the UFC. The first graph represents all UFC events (Main cards, UFN cards, TUF cards and others) whilst the 2nd graph just represents the main numbered events.
A few points of interest:
- These results incorporate all events from UFC 50
- Source data pulled from the mighty Sherdog.com.
- A 10 card sliding window has been used to calculate the rates, meaning each dot on the graph represents the results from the preceeding 100 UFC fights (approx)
- Submissions from punches have been included as TKOs as I want to track any trends in choke/joint manipulation finishes. ie. BJJ not brutal GnP
- Draws have been included as decisions
- DQs have not been included at all
ALL UFC EVENTS
(t)KO: 374 36.8%
Decision: 379 37.3%
Submission: 263 25.9%
Total fights: 1016
Thoughts & Comments
- After quite a while of pretty steady low submission rates, we've seen a pretty rapid increase in submissions. Will it continue to rise and get back above 30%? Drop back down below 20%?
- The increase in submissions has been met with an always identical, inverse decline in (t)KO bringing (t)KOs to their second lowest average ever right now.
- Decisions are proving to be steady above 40% even exceeding 50%. I think we've seen the last of sub 30% decision rates.
MAIN UFC NUMBERED EVENTS
(t)KO: 258 38.1%
Decision: 258 38.1%
Submission: 162 23.9%
Total fights: 678
Thoughts & Comments
- Decisions appear to be on the increase
- (t)KOs and submissions consistent with all UFC events.
- The completion of UFC 119 marks the first time that submissions and (t)KOs have occured with equal regularity.
- Main card submission rate has not been this high since UFC 57 - UFC 66. The resurrgence of the armbar has seen to this. If we include the straight armbar at UFC 119, thats 6 armbars in the last 4 UFC main cards. This compared to a total of only 6 armbars in the 31 events prior to UFC 116.
I've also included below the graphs for the UFN cards and Ive kept the data for the WEC cards too which is showing some pretty clear trends too. Check em out.
UFN / TUF and Misc UFC cards
I hope this kinda stuff interests a few people as it does me. Don't be afraid to get your nerd on people!!!