UFC 117 Post-Fight Analysis: Chael Sonnen, Zuffa Champions, Finishing and Being Finished
by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 8, 2010 12:43 PM EDT
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Following Dominick Cruz's bantamweight title win at WEC 47 I wrote this piece which gave a quick highlight of finishing rates among Zuffa champions. By winning the title, Cruz had become the first champion post-2007 to have a finish rate of under 50% the night he won the title. Cruz had a rate of 43% on that night. Then came UFC 112, Frankie Edgar and his 45% rate the night he beat B.J. Penn and we were up to two champions with sub .500 rates.
Coming into last night's bout with Anderson Silva, Chael Sonnen had a 42% rate which would have made him the new "record holder." Of course, his inability to finish allowed Anderson Silva (career 74% finish rate) to hang around and eventually find a way to sink in a triangle armbar in the last moments of the fight.
Today we'll look at the other part of the fight finishing picture, being finished. This time, let's take a look at the Zuffa champions (including interim title holders and anyone who won or made a defense of a title) since 2007 and see where their career marks are in terms of "being finished." This time we'll be taking the percentage of their total career fights that the champions lost by knockout or submission.
Stats and lists in the full entry:
Here are the Zuffa champions or former champions who have been stopped in more than 15% of their career fights:
Randy Couture - 32%
Frank Mir - 28%
Mike Brown - 21%
Doug Marshall - 20%
Brian Stann - 17%
Brock Lesnar - 17%
Forrest Griffin - 17%
Chase Beebe - 16%
So from that list we have a 40+ year old who has been competing since 1997, Marshall and Stann who were not champions of a "top level" division, and Lesnar whose small number of fights adds a lot of weight to his one sub loss. Basically, there aren't a lot of high level champions who get stopped more than 15% of the time.
And here are the five Zuffa champions who finished less than 60% of their wins on the night they won the title:
Randy Couture - 57%
Lyoto Machida - 57%
Rashad Evans - 50%
Matt Serra - 50%
Dominick Cruz - 43%
Only one name has cross-over here and that is Couture, and I think this could be chalked up to a large portion of his long career being spent in an era of specialists. So where do the other non-finishers stack up in terms of how often they, themselves, are finished?
Lyoto Machida - 06%
Rashad Evans - 06%
Matt Serra - 12%
Dominick Cruz - 06%
So, back to Chael Sonnen who almost broke the whole damn system last night. Chael has a stoppage rate that would have been the lowest for a champion in the post-PRIDE Zuffa era (42%) and has been stopped in 28% of his career fights, which would have been good for second worst during the same period.
The overall takeaway here should be that at the championship level guys who don't finish many fights generally need to be really damn good defensively and have a style that ensures that they are not making fight ending mistakes. Especially when the transition to championship level means the addition of two more rounds.
None of this is to say there can't be outliers or that guys like Sonnen can't come along and win a title. But, at least for one night, the numbers held up and Chael's inability to finish and tendency to be finished caught up with him.
Randy Couture - 32%
Frank Mir - 28%
Mike Brown - 21%
Doug Marshall - 20%
Brian Stann - 17%
Brock Lesnar - 17%
Forrest Griffin - 17%
Chase Beebe - 16%
Quinton Jackson - 13%
Mauricio Rua - 13%
Matt Serra - 12%
Brian Bowles - 11%
Anderson Silva - 10%
Jamie Varner - 10%
Steve Cantwell - 10%
Carlos Condit - 10%
Georges St. Pierre - 09%
B.J. Penn - 09%
Ben Henderson - 08%
Shane Carwin - 08%
Urijah Faber - 07%
Dominick Cruz - 06%
Jose Aldo - 06%
Rashad Evans - 06%
Lyoto Machida - 06%
Miguel Torres - 05%
Sean Sherk - 05%
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira - 05%
Rob McCullough - 04%
Paulo Filho - 00%
Frankie Edgar - 00%
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Razor Rob getting some love!
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by Derek Suboticki on Aug 8, 2010 12:58 PM EDT reply actions
Hey...the man doesn't get finished!
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by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 8, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
How would Jon Fitch look on here?
When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
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by Derek Suboticki on Aug 8, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Fitch has been stopped 8% of the time. He has finished 10 of his 23 wins for a 43% finish rate. So he’d basically be Cruz
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by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 8, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks (I’m insanely lazy)
When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
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Still Subo at Fightlinker.com
by Derek Suboticki on Aug 8, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That’s a shame when you’re married to a porn star.
If you're not watching Treme, you're a bad person.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Aug 8, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Zing!
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by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 8, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
That’ll do, Mach. That’ll do.
When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
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by Derek Suboticki on Aug 8, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Finishing and being Finish
The big thing about winning and losing a fight is finishing a fightIf Sonnen could have stopped Silva in the 4th round he’ll be champion now.Alot of fighters loose because of thinking they’ve control the fight and will sneak out a decision.
by TERRENCEFROMSOUTHEAST on Aug 8, 2010 1:03 PM EDT reply actions
Sonnen should have put on his fucking dancing shoes in the fifth. He said in the postfight that he didn’t know what round it was or how much time was left. His corner should have been yelling “DON’T FUCKING TOUCH HIM” the entire fifth round.
When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
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by Derek Suboticki on Aug 8, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he'd have shot for a takedown anyway...
given that it was pretty clear Anderson was coming out looking to finish he’d have probably tried to put it on the ground just to avoid the strikes.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 8, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
He’s sat in Anderson’s guard all night. That seemed safer than standing.
"I am a man who pisses largely and frequently, which they say is a sign of great mental activity" -Henry Miller-
Exactly
He had it won and he knew it . Why posture up at that point? If he stays chest to chest and mauls him for a couple more minutes like he had done a lot of the fight he wins. Lapse in judgement and or bad coaching
Root for the home team jack ass
by KING FEDOR on Aug 8, 2010 2:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It was a great fight
And it was truly shocking to see Chael outstrike Anderson in the stand-up. (at least that’s how I remember the fight—haven’t rewatched it.)
But the fight did end exactly the way it was most likely to end given both fighters’ histories—Anderson Silva defeats Chael Sonnen by submission.
by Lauren J Darkbloom on Aug 8, 2010 1:06 PM EDT reply actions
It could be possible that Chael just doesn't strike really well and Anderson did not respect his striking
Because at no time did Silva looks rummy from ANY punches
"it was truly shcoking to see Chael outstrike Anderson in the stand-up"
That was a real shock. Also Anderson’s offensive wrestling was a real shocker to me. At certain points in the fight, I thought I had somehow entered a bizarro world where Chael was the superior striker and Anderson the better wrestler (minus the TDD). In any case, I think it’s safe to assume that Anderson’s skills are eroding. He looked badly off balance (e.g., when he fell in the fifth after trying to dodge a punch) and his technique (although I’m a little out of my depth) seemed lacking — he looked off balance after throwing several times and his head movement was pretty poor. He’s getting old and time is not generally kind to your reflexes as Roy Jones has taught us, although there are certainly some boxers that have managed to fight at a high level even at Andy’s age (Calzaghe, Hopkins, Marquez, Mosley, to name a few).
"If a dick don't get hard offa cocaine, what would you axe it?" O.D.B.
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"I shoot. I score. He shoots. I score." Dan Gable.
It's certainly possible that he's turned a corner
There’s no way Chael should have been able to land as many clean shots as he did standing. Silva’s timing, head movement and counter punching was nowhere to be seen. I think it is also possible though that Anderson was legitimately injured, at least that’s my hope, because it’d be a bummer if the Matrix was gone for good.
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
by Dave Strummer on Aug 8, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
The matrix had to go at some point
But a rib injury clearly could, or I should say, would, impact your movement and balance. I think that some of it was also desperation from Silva. Silva is a tremendous competitor with an amazing heart and a ton of pride. He really was pushing himself to the limit. I’m amazed he had enough left to even go for the triangle at the end.
"If a dick don't get hard offa cocaine, what would you axe it?" O.D.B.
"To be is to be the value of a bound variable." W.V.O Quine
"I shoot. I score. He shoots. I score." Dan Gable.
So what this shows is that based on the statistics Sonnen would be the least likely challenger to win the title or keep it
And I would agree. So what went wrong last night Brent?
Chael’s inability to finish was one of the things that really worried me leading up to the fight. I know the percentage of finishes once it gets to the championship rounds is low, but Chael’s habit of getting subbed pretty much increased the odds of Silva subbing him the longer the fight went. Chael should have played defense in Silva’s guard.
I think Chael could've stopped him in the 1st
But I feel that he wanted to “live up to his promise” and grind out a decision. Silva was not defending himself well at certain points in the fight and Chael could’ve gone for the heavy artillery and finished him off.
Nick Garcia is the Brian Russell of MLS but 10 times worse.
Has anyone realized that Sonnen;s last five losses have been:
Triangle
Triangle
Armbar
Armbar
Triangle
Damn this guy should just practice BJJ submission all day long
He actually did a fair amount I think. Credit to Andy for cinching that so quickly and slickly. Sonnen actually used a fairly high level defense that none other than Roger Gracie used to defend a triangle against Xande Ribeiro in the ADCC’s in 2005, I believe, less the bullshit half tap that Chael tried to use to get Andy to relax. I’m not usually one to say that he should have kept fighting until he went out, but in the position he was in and given the stakes, he should have just kept fighting and if he failed to break the triangle, he’d have been choked out (which is different from having your arm broken or shoulder dislocated — it’s unpleasant but is unlikely to cause permanent damage if the hold is released soon after you go out).
"If a dick don't get hard offa cocaine, what would you axe it?" O.D.B.
"To be is to be the value of a bound variable." W.V.O Quine
"I shoot. I score. He shoots. I score." Dan Gable.
Silva got an armbar, as Sonnen tried to get out of the triangle. Going to sleep to a triangle armbar is not a good idea.
I do agree that Sonnen’s jiujitsu was pretty good. He was fending off submission attempts the entire fight.
That’s true. Not sure how close the armbar was though. Tough to break the arm from that position because you’re pushing with your arms, but he certainly could have tweaked it. While sitting and observing from my arm chair, I say that I certainly would have risked it! ;)
"If a dick don't get hard offa cocaine, what would you axe it?" O.D.B.
"To be is to be the value of a bound variable." W.V.O Quine
"I shoot. I score. He shoots. I score." Dan Gable.
I feel for Sonnen
He thoroughly worked Anderson at all facets of the game. He prevented scrambles and was able to have his way with the best Middleweight of all time. He has now laid claim to being the legitimate #2 in the division. If he would go train with Maia much like Okami did with Sonnen, I think you’d see a very scary fighter. Not one who will win via omoplatas but just one who will have fantastic defense and won’t make dumb mistakes.
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I'd skip that...
and go train with a Fitch-type. A guy who is a wrestler first but who figured out how to work submission defense into his game.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 8, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
He learned that by earning a black belt from Camarillo. Why doesn’t Sonnen have a black belt in something (or at least why isn’t he working toward one)? He’s been professionally fighting for a really long time.
"If a dick don't get hard offa cocaine, what would you axe it?" O.D.B.
"To be is to be the value of a bound variable." W.V.O Quine
"I shoot. I score. He shoots. I score." Dan Gable.
Cause JiuJitsu is gay
That’s why Sonnen refuses to get a black belt. If he went to work with Camarillo he’d be straight dominant.
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Yeah...he got his BB
but I don’t think Chael would ever do a whole thing where he dives into BJJ like that. But let him learn it “from a wrestler” and he’ll be more accepting. Of course this is based off my own speculation and not facts or anything.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 8, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
I think it’s too late in the game for Chael to suddenly be a BJJ wiz, but he can at least shore up some serious holes in his game to make them… not so serious. He needs to swallow his pride if he is ever going to improve in the submission department.
My biggest pet peeve in MMA
Is successful fighters who can’t finish anyone. Of all the superficial things I don’t like about Chael, that’s the one that bugs me the most. Ditto Fitch.
At least Chael works to inflict damage though. Fitch looks to me like he is deliberately point fighting from wire to wire every time out.
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
Chael isn't Rashad Evans
He’s going in their to beat guys up. Just like Fitch. They work some ground and pound.
"I am a man who pisses largely and frequently, which they say is a sign of great mental activity" -Henry Miller-
Fitch doesn't beat anyone up
I honestly can’t remember the last time Fitch landed good shots from the top. He just works for control and wins a decision.
Nick Garcia is the Brian Russell of MLS but 10 times worse.
I cant remember the last time Fitch landed anything that even appaeared to have the slightest effect on his opponent, let alone do any damage, let TRIPLE alone actually causing them to be nearly finished. Same with sub attempts, I cant remember the last time Fitch actually came close to a finish with a sub. He is utterly and completely lacking in any ability to inflict damage on an opponent.
That is why
Dana is hedging on who gets the next title shot. By all rights, based on record and his five match streak, it should be Fitch, but Dana isn’t thrilled by Fitch’s boring, yet effective style. It’s tough to sell a fight with a guy who’s already lost to GSP, and has a highlight reel of UD’s.
by Dootch on Aug 8, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Sonnen impressed me last night
Though his record says that he’s not stopping anyone good, but Fitch’s ground and pound is not designed to hurt anyone. And Rashad, of course, has finished better guys, more recently, than either of them.
Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.
by Dave Strummer on Aug 8, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting take for an article...
Makes complete sense. I quite often favor a fighter with more ways to finish. It doesn’t guarantee a victory, but it increases the odds.
Yep
That’s the gist of what I wrote yesterday about this fight in particular…
“How often does Silva get beat while on his back? How many finishes does Sonnen have in the UFC? Put those two tidbits together, and you come up with the same conclusion I have… Sonnen may get Silva down, even a couple of times, but he’s not a finisher, and Silva is (usually).”
Obviously, Sonnen got Andeson down more than “a couple of times”, but as per usual, he didn’t take full advantage, and he’s too susceptible to subs for a 25 minute fight.
Brookhouse
I didn’t think you were a numbers guy…
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HUGE numbers guy...
I just usually don’t write about it. But I’ve done stuff where I’ve figured out what the average successful signee to the UFC has as far as winning percentage, stop rates, etc.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 8, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I love data like that. You guys should create some sort of publicly accessible database. I’m sure you can make money with it. If you’re keeping track of it anyway . . .
"If a dick don't get hard offa cocaine, what would you axe it?" O.D.B.
"To be is to be the value of a bound variable." W.V.O Quine
"I shoot. I score. He shoots. I score." Dan Gable.
Very interesting numbers. I always thought a guy like Rashad would never be able to stay on top for long because he doesnt have the best chin… or a guy like Arlovski or Overeem. Ability to finish adds another variable to the equation.
I’ve said even though GSP is winning in dominating fashion per the score cards… he’s paying price by not having that “Mike Tyson” factor when someone enters the cage with him. (Anderson has been benefiting from this and it took a guy who wasnt afraid to push him) Damian Maia is probably kicking himself thinking Anderson was really hurt in that third round.
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