UFC 118 Preview: B.J. Penn, Frankie Edgar Collide in UFC Lightweight Title Rematch

In the UFC 118 main event, newly-crowned UFC Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (12-1, 7-1 UFC) will have the unpleasant task of battling former UFC Lightweight champion B.J. Penn (15-6-1, 11-5-1 UFC) in a rematch of their UFC 112 battle that saw Edgar win via judges decision (50-45, 49-46, 48-47). The controversy surrounding the title tilt stems from the scoring of the fight, and many fans felt B.J. Penn landed the more solid punches and edged out Edgar in the end. Unbelievably, two of the judges didn't feel the fight was as close as everyone else believed. Judge Douglas Crosby actually scored the contest in favor of Edgar, 50-45, giving him all five rounds. Some might believe it was just idiocy, but it takes a special kind of ignorance to turn that kind of score in for a fight in which Penn clearly won at least two rounds. 

I'm not going to delve into the historical aspects of both fighters because this fight already has a blueprint. The first encounter at UFC 112 was exactly as many fans expected it. Penn used his remarkably fast straight punches and a jab to pepper Edgar over the course of five rounds while Edgar tried to work a similar gameplan. Edgar's movement was very good, and the fact that he looked like the much busier fighter may have been a reason why he was favored by the judges. This isn't to say that Edgar wasn't effective either.

Edgar's footwork and speed was his best asset in the showdown, but Penn's timing was the biggest key to his success in the early rounds at UFC 112. In the later rounds, Penn began to tire, and Edgar seemed to be running at the same pace as he was when he stepped into the cage. Edgar managed to gain a takedown or two late in the fight against the somewhat tired Penn, and perhaps that secured the fight for Edgar. Unfortunately, many fans, including, myself didn't see it that way.

Let's make this brief and to the point. What can we expect this time that may be different? Reports in the post-fight were that Penn was possibly suffering from a sinus infection or was ill. While people generally scoff at excuses, it's a significant blow to any fighter's ability to fight for five rounds if your airway is partially blocked. If that was the case, we can expect Penn to be better conditioned for this fight.

The actual match-up will more than likely follow the same blueprint as last time. Penn will try to time Edgar, pepper him with blows, and knock his block off when the opportunity presents itself. Edgar will aim to box with Penn, moving in and out of danger quickly in order to avoid Penn's power. The question is whether Edgar gained a little confidence from the takedowns in the first fight, and will that confidence cause him to abandon the gameplan that helped him win a title. I would think not, and Penn's ground ability would put Edgar in a world of danger if he tried to bring the fight to the ground.

I expect the same fight we saw at UFC 112 with the exception that Penn will win. If Penn can maintain his strength and speed over five rounds, he should have his belt back. Edgar's defense and speed are great assets, but it was evident that Penn was able to time his move in, move out motion at UFC 112. Instead of going with what I truly expect in a decision win for Penn, I'm going to bank on Penn landing a bomb inside five rounds. Edgar is going to be successful for a bit in this fight, but Penn will find his timing, land a chin breaker as Edgar moves in, and drop the champion.