FightMetric Report for Strikeforce: Houston's Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Tim Kennedy
by Mike Fagan on Aug 23, 2010 4:08 PM EDT
in MMA News
Email
Print
Hm. Four five-round non-UFC fights happened this week (not to mention the recent UFC 117 middleweight title fight). And they were all awesome. Can someone tell me why the elite fighting organization in the world still refuses to introduce five-round non-title fights? I think "Jacare" and Tim Kennedy are awesome fighters, but there is no reason they should be given the opportunity to fight for 25 minutes because Strikeforce has a vacant gold-laden leather strap while Martin Kampmann and Jake Shields are going to be constrained by the three by five format.
But anyway, about that "Jacare"/Kennedy title bout. In the post-fight interviews, Kennedy felt like he got jobbed a bit. What does FightMetric have to say about it? Let's take a look at the breakdown. (RS = Ronaldo Souza, TK = Tim Kennedy, TS = Total Strikes, SS = Significant Strikes, TD = Takedowns, FMES = FightMetric Effectiveness Scores, TPM = Ten Point Must scoring)
| RS TS |
RS SS |
RS TD |
TK TS |
TK SS |
TK TD |
FMES | TPM | |
| Round 1 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0 | RS 95-42 TK |
10-9 RS |
| Round 2 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 0 | RS 54-57 TK | 10-10 |
| Round 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 1 | RS 64-59 TK |
10-9 RS |
| Round 4 | 5 |
0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | RS 20-35 TK |
10-9 TK |
| Round 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 1 | RS 71-77 TK |
10-9 TK |
| Total | 48 | 47 | 0 | 69 | 69 | 1 | RS 303-270 TK |
48-48 |
The numbers for this fight are a lot closer than I expected. Looking solely at the numbers, we could say conclusively that "Jacare" took round one and Kennedy took rounds three and four.
There's two things to keep at note here, and they overlap.
1) While FightMetric is a fabulous resource, there's no reason to accept the output at face value. I believe that damage and threatening submission attempts should count first when judging a fight, and in the absence of a clear separation in those categories, we should look at positional grappling dominance. FightMetric, for the most part, provides a numerical picture of that for us. What FightMetric can't do is...
2) Paint a clear picture of just how effective a strike or technique is. Let's take round two for example. The two fighters landed a very similar number of strikes. FightMetric doesn't (nor should it try) to quantify just how "hard" or "effective" those strikes are. The best any sort of statistical system can do is account for strikes attempted and landed, their target, and the type of strike (jab vs. any non-jab). As a result, we cannot rely SOLELY on FightMetric to prove or disprove a point.
What's the point? Well, while I obviously find FightMetric to be a tremendous resource, it loses a lot of its value if used in the wrong way. The numbers provided (and I always prefer the actual raw data, even though the Effectiveness Scores are nice to view at a glance) should be put into the context of the actual events of the fight. It's pointless to say, "Michael Bisping beat Matt Hamill because FightMetric says so." That's not, and never was, the purpose of the system.
But we've gotten off track. "Jacare"/Kennedy. Close, but I think when we view it in the frame of the action, it's clear that "Jacare" is the rightful winner. He landed the harder, crisper blows, in my mind, and controlled the balance of the bout.
21 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Yeah, Jacare won the fight. It wasn’t a blowout, though, wouldn’t mind seeing a rematch down the road. They really should do a tourney that TK could enter in.
"I talked about retirement a little bit, but told them I'd be the same ol' grumpy, pissed off guy." --Bobby Cox
Fantasy promoter, take two for today:
Mayhem vs Diaz. If Mayhem wins he gets a title shot. If he loses give him a rematch with Kennedy. If Kennedy wins that match he gets another title shot.
Meanwhile, hold an 8-man tournament with Lawler, Rockhold, Lindland, Villasenor, Santiago, Misaki, Prangley, and Ammoussou . Winner gets immediate title shot.
Then work on buying out Hector Lombards contract with Bellator. That’s a string of pretty good title fights.
It’s crazy to think that MW is commonly regarded as one of the weakest divisions in MMA, but is potentially Strikeforce’s deepest
"I talked about retirement a little bit, but told them I'd be the same ol' grumpy, pissed off guy." --Bobby Cox
by Anthony Pace on Aug 23, 2010 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Those stats make it look a lot closer than the fight I watched
"If I woke up looking like that, I would run towards the nearest living thing and kill it." -Master Shake
We have to take the amulet to the banana king!
I knew it was very close, but Jacare won most exchanges IMO.
The fact that Kennedy was trying to take the fight to the ground was telling too. I can’t see him doing that unless he felt he was losing the stand up. Mind you, his whining post fight told a different story.
That's a good point.
Its hard to believe he wanted to roll with Jacare.
"I trained with Steven Seagal."
by B.H. Farnsworth on Aug 23, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I usually see fights pretty close to the way Fight Metric scores them.
This one I did not. I had Jacare winning at least 4 out of 5 ounds
We were all rooting for Kennedy at home.
Sadly I agree, close but overall Jacare was the clear (but CLOSE) winner
I'm pretty sure Dana White has said
He’d have 5 round non-title fights for high-card match ups, but that he wants 7 rounds for title fights.
This was a comment he made a couple of years ago though. Maybe I’ll Twitter him and see if he responds.
typo?
how can round 3 be 19-19-1 for Kennedy vs 7-7-0 for Souza and end up 10-9 Souza?
well it's not a typo
seems kind of weird though
I’m mobile at the moment. I’ll check when I
get back but I’d assume Jacare’s strikes were power shots to the head while Kennedy’s were jabs, body or leg strikes.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
by Mike Fagan on Aug 23, 2010 8:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ya I had it scored for Kennedy, but I understand i'm the minority.
Very Close fight, would love to see a rematch
"Your not gonna jab and shoulder roll your way away from Brock Lesnar; He is gonna fuck you." - Joe 'High as Fuck' Rogan
I had it for Kennedy at the time
but I was 12+ beers deep on the day and thought it was pretty much a toss-up.
a kitten dies every time you compare an individual sport to a team sport.
by Marvin Malehooves on Aug 23, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
He landed the harder, crisper blows, in my mind, and controlled the balance of the bout.
Kennedy seemed to be throwing a little bit more but Jacare clearly landed the harder shots. He was also coming forward which gave him the aggression edge. The fact that he won the fight standing is pretty impressive, although he’s obviously still got a lot of holes. He didn’t seem to gas at all either, but who knows whether that’s a product of better training or not having to grapple. I had the fight 48-47 or 49-46 Jacare with I think round 4 to Kennedy and 2 a toss-up.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bloody Elbow
Related FanShots on Bloody Elbow
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
MMA Rankings
