FightMetric Report for Strikeforce: Houston's Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Tim Kennedy

Photo by Esther Lin for Strikeforce

Hm. Four five-round non-UFC fights happened this week (not to mention the recent UFC 117 middleweight title fight). And they were all awesome. Can someone tell me why the elite fighting organization in the world still refuses to introduce five-round non-title fights? I think "Jacare" and Tim Kennedy are awesome fighters, but there is no reason they should be given the opportunity to fight for 25 minutes because Strikeforce has a vacant gold-laden leather strap while Martin Kampmann and Jake Shields are going to be constrained by the three by five format.

But anyway, about that "Jacare"/Kennedy title bout. In the post-fight interviews, Kennedy felt like he got jobbed a bit. What does FightMetric have to say about it? Let's take a look at the breakdown. (RS = Ronaldo Souza, TK = Tim Kennedy, TS = Total Strikes, SS = Significant Strikes, TD = Takedowns, FMES = FightMetric Effectiveness Scores, TPM = Ten Point Must scoring)

RS
TS
RS
SS
RS
TD
TK
TS
TK
SS
TK
TD
FMES TPM
Round 1 15 15 0 9 9 0 RS 95-42 TK
10-9 RS
Round 2 9 8 0 11 11 0 RS 54-57 TK 10-10
Round 3 7 7 0 19 19 1 RS 64-59 TK
10-9 RS
Round 4 5
0 0 14 0 0 RS 20-35 TK
10-9 TK
Round 5 12 12 0 16 16 1 RS 71-77 TK
10-9 TK
Total 48 47 0 69 69 1 RS 303-270 TK
48-48

The numbers for this fight are a lot closer than I expected. Looking solely at the numbers, we could say conclusively that "Jacare" took round one and Kennedy took rounds three and four.

There's two things to keep at note here, and they overlap.

1) While FightMetric is a fabulous resource, there's no reason to accept the output at face value. I believe that damage and threatening submission attempts should count first when judging a fight, and in the absence of a clear separation in those categories, we should look at positional grappling dominance. FightMetric, for the most part, provides a numerical picture of that for us. What FightMetric can't do is...

2) Paint a clear picture of just how effective a strike or technique is. Let's take round two for example. The two fighters landed a very similar number of strikes. FightMetric doesn't (nor should it try) to quantify just how "hard" or "effective" those strikes are. The best any sort of statistical system can do is account for strikes attempted and landed, their target, and the type of strike (jab vs. any non-jab). As a result, we cannot rely SOLELY on FightMetric to prove or disprove a point.

What's the point? Well, while I obviously find FightMetric to be a tremendous resource, it loses a lot of its value if used in the wrong way. The numbers provided (and I always prefer the actual raw data, even though the Effectiveness Scores are nice to view at a glance) should be put into the context of the actual events of the fight. It's pointless to say, "Michael Bisping beat Matt Hamill because FightMetric says so." That's not, and never was, the purpose of the system.

But we've gotten off track. "Jacare"/Kennedy. Close, but I think when we view it in the frame of the action, it's clear that "Jacare" is the rightful winner. He landed the harder, crisper blows, in my mind, and controlled the balance of the bout.

Strikeforce_houston_event_button_medium

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Bloody Elbow

You must be a member of Bloody Elbow to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bloody Elbow. You should read them.

Join Bloody Elbow

You must be a member of Bloody Elbow to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bloody Elbow. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_5349_tracker