Strikeforce: Houston Predictions

by Nate Wilcox on Aug 20, 2010 8:00 PM EDT in MMA Events

Event: Strikeforce: "Houston"
Date: Saturday, Aug. 21, 2010, at 10:00 p.m. ET on Showtime
Location: Toyota Center in Houston, Texas

Main card (Showtime):

Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal vs. Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante

Luke Thomas: I don't think Mo is just the "better" athlete, I think he's the athlete with a better sense of timing. He isn't necessarily faster than Feijao (although he might be), but Mo's got a really underrated sense of when to and when not to attack. Mo's got limited shot selection, but his accuracy striking is also underrated and often his punches come from angles where the punches have changed elevation to a strong degree. But even if Mo doesn't punch, his wrestling and sub defense could be enough to pound out the tough but perhaps not elite Feijao. I like Mo a lot in this one. Lawal by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: This is a classic wrestler vs BJJ/Muay Thai match-up. It's also a no-win for King Mo -- everyone has forgotten how hyped Feijao was before he lost to Mike Kyle but he's still a very dangerous man. Feijao has more KO power than Mousasi, but I think Mo can handle him. King Mo by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: If you could elbow on the ground in Strikeforce I'd like Feijao a little more. The way Mousasi was able to bust up Mo's face from his back could only be made more interesting if he could have thrown elbows. Regardless, Mo probably takes this although I'll be hoping for a Feijao KO. King Mo by decision.

Mike Fagan: This may end up looking like a repeat of the Mousasi fight. Regardless, legitimate world class wrestling is a huge trump card in MMA. Not only as a means for controlling the location of the fight, but also as a means for wearing your opponent out. I'll give Mo some leeway and like Muhammad Lawal by TKO, round 4.

Chris Nelson: My only apprehension here is that Mo hasn't yet taken a punch with the kind of power that "Feijao" can deliver. All other signs point to Lawal grinding Cavalcante out the way he did Mousasi. Lawal via decision.

Nick Thomas: Lawal by takedown after takedown. By the 4th and 5th round, a slower Cavalcante won't be as dangerous on the feet. Lawal by decision.

Leland Roling: Cavalcante is going to find himself on his back quite often in this fight, and I highly doubt any opponent that Strikeforce can find will challenge Mo's wrestling ability. Cavalcante has the outside chance of blasting Mo's chin to smithereens, but I think Lawal batters Cavalcante on the ground to a stoppage. Lawal via TKO.

Tim Kennedy vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza

Luke Thomas: I don't have a beef with Jacare picks. And it also seems a little impulsive to pick Kennedy after stopping an aging and limited Prangley. Still, Kennedy is better athlete than he's given credit. He's a decent scrambler, he's got tight wrestling/BJJ transition fundamentals and I suspect a much harder puncher than Joey Villasenor, Mayhem Miller or other fighters Jacare has faced. Kennedy can, of course, make one small error and the fight's over, but I've been a little underwhelmed with Jacare's finishing ability when it comes to high-level opposition. In a five round fight, that's worrisome. I won't be surprised either way, but I bet Kennedy can get it done. Kennedy by TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: Kennedy is very talented, very tough and definitely on his way up in the MMA world. But unfortunately, he's a jack-of-all trades going in against a BJJ specialist with strong wrestling. I don't see Kennedy keeping it on the feet and I don't see him surviving Jacare on the ground. Ronaldo Souza by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Kennedy is very solid and constantly improving but I think Jacare's improvements in striking are equally impressive. In his fight with Villasenor he looked good but did still have some technical holes in the stand-up. Still, on the ground Jacare is otherworldly. I don't think this is a crushing loss in Kennedy's career and I think he's good enough to not get finished but I do think it will be a loss. Big credit to Strikeforce for this fight which is very intriguing and very appropriate at this point in the career of both men. Ronaldo Souza by unanimous decision.

Mike Fagan: My first exposure to Kennedy was his fight on HDNet Fight's lone event with Jason Miller. He's impressed me with his improvement since then. This should be a good fight, but I think "Jacare's" grappling will be the big difference. Ronaldo Souza by decision.

Chris Nelson: On paper, a fantastic fight. Kennedy has looked more and more impressive with each outing since signing with Strikeforce, and "Jacare" is always a treat to watch. In reality, though, Souza's BJJ game will be too much for Kennedy's wrestling to overcome. Souza via submission, round two.

Nick Thomas: I can't wait for this fight. Jacare is just a little bit better at everything and I don't think cardio will be an issue this time around. Jacare by decision.

Leland Roling: Bunch of haters. Haters gonna hate! This is a very tough fight to call, but I'm going with Kennedy. I think he's going to be very tough for Jacare to take down consistently, and I think he has the knockout power to threaten Jacare's chin on the feet. Tim Kennedy via TKO

Karl "KJ" Noons vs. Jorge Gurgel

Luke Thomas: I have deep admiration for both fighters, but I can't pretend to be super excited about this one. Unless Gurgel does something very un-Gurgel-esque (that's a mouthful), Noons should be able to win a three round decision. Noons by decision.

Kid Nate: I think Gurgel's knees are shot and that's why he never shoots in for take downs. But the last time I saw him use his jiu jitsu in the cage (against Alvin Robinson in the UFC) he acted like he was in a BJJ tournament and didn't integrate strikes into his ground game at all. Noons on the other hand is very good at his speciality and should batter Gurgel on the feet. Noons by KO.

Brent Brookhouse: We can talk all day long about how "if only Gurgel would use his strengths!" It doesn't matter in this fight. Noons is too good for Jorge regardless of what Jorge comes in and tries to get done. KJ Noons by decision.

Mike Fagan: Jeez, do I pick the guy who used the phrase "lay and gay" or the guy who fights against his strengths? I'm still waiting for the day that Gurgel says, "Gotcha!" and takes a fight to the ground. Until then, K.J. Noons by decision.

Chris Nelson: Noons will absolutely batter Gurgel's face for three rounds. Noons via decision.

Nick Thomas: Will Gurgel get this to the ground? I don't think so. Noons by decision.

Leland Roling: Gurgel might actually try to take this to the ground for once. Unfortunately, he hasn't really had a whole lot of practice in the past. Noons stuffs his takedowns and throws quick jabs into Gurgel's soon to be cracked jaw. Noons via decision.

Bobby "Dominator" Lashley vs. Chad "The Grave Digger" Griggs

Luke Thomas: In terms of where Lashley's ability really is, I don't think this is necessarily the worst fight ever. But that's sort of sad, isn't it? Lashley by decision.

Kid Nate: Hard to get too pumped about this bout which should be a gimme for Lashley. Lashley by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Other than this fight this is a really great card filled with some intriguing bouts and what should be a good amount of action. If Lashley doesn't run through Griggs it's going to be a real issue. Bobby Lashley by TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: Hopefully Bobby is serious about taking some better fights after this. And Coker, keep Batista out of this. Bobby Lashley by TKO, round 1.

Chris Nelson: I've seen very little of Griggs, but I have no reason not to go with Lashley via TKO, round one.

Nick Thomas: Poor Griggs. Lashley's insta-takedown means Lashley by TKO.

Leland Roling: Griggs' horrible strength of record just confirms the obvious. Strikeforce is feeding him a victory. Bobby Lashley via TKO.

Streamed Under card (Sherdog.com):

Daniel Cormier vs. Jason Riley

Luke Thomas: I worry about Cormier's health and his cardio fighting 3 times in 22 days, but Riley is probably not the guy to make Cormier pay for shortcomings in either department. Cormier by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: Another squash match, but that's fine, Cormier is a prospect and he's not on the main card. Cormier by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Riley's 10-3 record looks pretty impressive until you notice that in those three losses he was TKO'ed in 35 seconds, 14 seconds and 2 minutes 32 seconds. You can take your Cole Konrad and keep him, I'm really liking what I'm seeing from Cormier in his run against lessar opponents. Daniel Cormier by TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Looks like a pretty obvious squash match. Daniel Cormier by TKO, round 1.

Chris Nelson: Cormier's development is one of the most exciting things happening in MMA right now. Stringing all these fights together could catch up with him eventually, but he should be too powerful for Riley here. Cormier via TKO, round one.

Nick Thomas: Cormier by TKO.

Leland Roling: Seriously? World-class wrestler versus good ol' Midwestern boy? Daniel Cormier via TKO.

Andre Galvao vs. Jorge "Macaco" Patino

Luke Thomas: Macaco is older and coming in on short notice, but I've been less than impressed with Galvao's transition to MMA. He just doesn't fight with the intensity and urgency that is required for full contact fighting. He also seems asleep at the wheel when he feels he's in advantageous positions. I'm not saying Macaco is a wrecking machine, but he's beaten respectable fighters in his career. I'll give Galvao the nod, but I would not be the least bit surprised for him to give Galvao fits or even win. Galvao by split decision.

Kid Nate: Macaco was too small for this division ten years ago. He's also giving up an immense BJJ deficit to Galvao and coming in on short notice. Galvao by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Short notice, shouldn't be too hard of a fight for Galvao. Andre Galvao by decision.

Mike Fagan: Galvao would take this even if "Macaco" wasn't fighting on short notice. Andre Galvao by decision.

Chris Nelson: Patino can (and probably will) drag this to the scorecards, but it'll be Galvao all the way. Galvao via decision.

Nick Thomas: Galvao by decision.

Leland Roling: All this fight needs is Jorge Pereira as the referee. Galvao via decision.

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Comments

Mo by LnP.
Souza by sub.
Noons by why-the-fuck-won’t-Gurgel-use-his-BJJ-the-one-martial-art-he-excels-at.

by mma_critic on Aug 20, 2010 8:10 PM EDT reply actions

It's funny

when King Mo lnp for one fight then everybody assumes thats all he can do.

by Mohammedini Hussein on Aug 20, 2010 8:15 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think that's true...

I think it’s that that’s all we’ve seen from him against high level opponents so it’s all that is fair to accept as fact. But luke talked a lot about his striking. And the reason I, personally, think it’ll be similar to the mousasi fight (which I wouldn’t consider lay and pray…but whatever, get all defensive if that’s your thing) because it makes SENSE for him to not fuck around trying to play on the feet with Feijao.

Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 20, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point

I get what your saying and I agree. King Mo is still devoloping and he might be sticking to his roots.

by Mohammedini Hussein on Aug 20, 2010 8:43 PM EDT reply actions

Luke Thomas picked Bobby Lashley. You guys realize what this means, right? He loves PRO WRESTLING!

Forget it Donny, you're out of your element.
CagesideSeats.com

by Geno Mrosko on Aug 20, 2010 8:44 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Why do Noons’ and Gurgel’s faces look Like they’re photoshopped onto different bodies?

by Polyhedron on Aug 20, 2010 8:48 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Sorry.

Their bodies didn’t look to be at par with the ‘strikeforce image’ of what a real man should look like, so I added their faces to the bodies of abercrombie male models.

weoweoweo .deviantart .com -- @antontabuena

by Anton Tabuena on Aug 20, 2010 9:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Mo by decision, looking much like Mousasi fight. I’m not sure how good Feijao is from the bottom, he will spend a lot of time there, just a question of if he can take Mo to a decision or get TKO’d before that. I’d love to see him KO Mo but realistically I don’t think it’s happening.
Jacare by submission, or possibly decision. Hope he doesn’t gas if they go the whole five rounds, it’s a good match-up and the one I’m looking forward to the most on the card. Kennedy is good but I still think Jacare is the better fighter.
KJ Noons by out-pointing Gurgel on the feet towards a decision.
Lashley by takedown towards a TKO.

by Horselover Fat on Aug 20, 2010 9:03 PM EDT reply actions

Bobby Lashley on this card is really bugging me

I can avoid all Lashley news no problem. But I can’t not watch Lashley fight if he’s on the main card before Jacare/Kennedy.

"I am a man who pisses largely and frequently, which they say is a sign of great mental activity" -Henry Miller-

by Neil Manich on Aug 20, 2010 9:03 PM EDT reply actions

Wait until about 10:30 and then turn the show on...

Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com

by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 20, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Ok

But if I miss a round of Kj/Gurgel I’ll be mildly disappointed.

"I am a man who pisses largely and frequently, which they say is a sign of great mental activity" -Henry Miller-

by Neil Manich on Aug 20, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions

hang out on BE...

check my live blog. I’ll tell you when it’s okay to tune in.

Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com

by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 20, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions

What's wrong with him?

I mean. I don’t see the problem. Watching a dude get slammed down and pounded into oblivion is entertaining, isn’t it?

And then God created Saturn... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it.
Twitter me and what not.

by James Brady on Aug 20, 2010 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

My problem is:

With how ridiculous these matchups and Lines are for Strikeforce’s “faces”, at what point do you cross the line from competition to bringing in the jobber to take his scripted loss…

by WarToney on Aug 21, 2010 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I dont think People are giving Kennedy enough credit(although Im going with Jacare :P) with some saying he’s not an elite talent yet. I have to disagree, he’s faced some tough competition already and done super well considering his other commitments, even though he fought while still in the army with their competitions an such. They both have a common opponent in Mayhem Miller but its had to look at any of those fights to really guage what the outcome maybe as some were under different rules and waaay back when.
Also considering that Mayhem will either be in the Tourney(if it Happens) or either who ever wins, next opponet or two, as to why their no mention of the possible Trilogy that can unfold with either fighter? Guessing A) Its due to the suspension or B) Its Strikeforce :P All in all, gonna be a great Fight I do so imagine, as well as a real solid card Sat. And Heres hopin to Mo being decapitated!!!

How do you Know where Im at? If you dont Know where Ive been...Understand where Im coming from??

by Chiggs on Aug 20, 2010 10:16 PM EDT reply actions

If they do not air King Mo’s entrance in it’s entirety I will cry.

Strong men also cry……Strong men also cry.

"Jesus, did somebody dip a baby in jalepenos?" - My Girlfriend

by Earl Montclair on Aug 20, 2010 10:59 PM EDT reply actions

I thought just downward elbows were outlawed in SF?

You can still elbow upwards from you back, I believe?

Correct me if I am wrong?

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Aug 20, 2010 11:32 PM EDT reply actions

I believe it's "elbows on the ground"

But I’d love to be wrong

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
Contributor for WatchKalibRun.com
Still Subo at Fightlinker.com

by Derek Suboticki on Aug 21, 2010 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions

It is any elbow to the head on the ground

Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com

by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 21, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Lashley can't be that big naturally...

right?

by SkeezinSteevin on Aug 21, 2010 12:23 AM EDT reply actions

that dude is swoll.

Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac?
George Carlin

by Snatchl on Aug 21, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Sure it is,

I weighed 220 in college and now I am 765lbs.

by Riney on Aug 21, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point, Brent

I always focused on how Strikeforce disallowing elbows on the ground (for no reason other than their preferences, mind you) punished wrestlers in top position. I never thought about how it impacted the bottom guy’s ability to strike.

Now I hate that stupid, arbitrary, extraneous restriction even more.

by Derek Suboticki on Aug 21, 2010 1:27 AM EDT reply actions

Pride had the same rules

The theory behind it is that it keeps wrestlers from stalling and LNPing. Supposed to force guys to pass guard and go for more subs.

The Bas Rutten theory anyway.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Aug 21, 2010 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Still, Kennedy is better athlete than he’s given credit.

In Russia, credit gives you.

by Derek Suboticki on Aug 21, 2010 1:28 AM EDT reply actions

You can take your Cole Konrad and keep him, I’m really liking what I’m seeing from Cormier in his run against lessar opponents

This Lesnar thing is really getting out of hand when it starts impacting other words.

/editing

(also, someone explain Leland’s joke at the end to me.)

by Derek Suboticki on Aug 21, 2010 1:33 AM EDT reply actions

It’s supposed to be a reference to Rio Heroes. I don’t get it either.

by Chris Nelson on Aug 21, 2010 4:15 AM EDT up reply actions

stop hating lashley

I don’t get it. If the guy hadn’t been in wwe before this, everyone would be watching this green fighter progress. He has been impressive and showed progress everytime he steps in the cage. I have NO problem with what bobby has done to date. Carwin had 8 or 9 squash fights before fighting 3 names. Why would bobby want to fight a beast like del Rosario before he feels he’s ready? But everyone thinks “oh he’s scared to fight cuz he thinks he’ll lose”.
Where’s the problem? I ask anyone out here: would you take a fight you didn’t think you were ready for or couldn’t win?

I dunno guys, I’m not a wwe supporter by any means, but I respect the guy for giving this sport a try, and I think the comments he made about the batista fight prove where he thinks he’s at. A rookie that’s a few steps up from the bottom.

I know he said he would fight the champ, and that should mean he’ll fight anyone, but a title shot is in a whole different class than just accepting any fight they throw your way.

"Catch Wrestlers don't look for opportunities, we create them" - Josh Barnett

by Submit24 on Aug 21, 2010 8:48 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Because Lashley says he wants the best

then fights my uncle. He is simply Strikeforces attempt at BROCKLESNAR and it isn’t paying off.

by Riney on Aug 21, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t get it. If the guy hadn’t been in wwe before this, everyone would be watching this green fighter progress. He has been impressive and showed progress everytime he steps in the cage. I have NO problem with what bobby has done to date. Carwin had 8 or 9 squash fights before fighting 3 names. Why would bobby want to fight a beast like del Rosario before he feels he’s ready? But everyone thinks "oh he’s scared to fight cuz he thinks he’ll lose".

Carwin was not making the money Lashley was. That’s the problem. As is the fact that he and his camp have turned down guys with losing records in the past (as in, that is the reason the Sims fight took forever to make).

Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com

by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 21, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions