MMA History Points to Tough Odds for B.J. Penn and Joseph Benavidez in Rematches Against Frankie Edgar and Dominick Cruz
by Kid Nate on Aug 16, 2010 11:49 AM EDT
in MMA News
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Sergio Non does the leg work:
...the history of relatively quick rematches at the elite level suggests that the first result tends to repeat itself.
Fighting Stances looked at the outcomes of notable rematches involving high-level competitors from the Ultimate Fighting Championship, Pride Fighting Championships and Strikeforce.
...
It takes less than two full hands to count the number of notable rematches or trilogies at the elite level that ended with a different result:
- Dan Severn - Ken Shamrock
- Tito Ortiz - Guy Mezger
- Royce Gracie - Hidehiko Yoshida
- Chuck Liddell - Randy Couture
- Kazuo Misaki - Dan Henderson
- Takanori Gomi - Marcus Aurelio
- Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira - Josh Barnett
- Tim Sylvia - Andrei Arlovski
In contrast, he tallies up 16 rematches where the winner of the first fight took the second, five trilogies taken by the winner of the first fight, three fights where the fighter winning the majority of the first fight before being submitted or suddenly KO'd came back to win the rematch, one rematch won by the loser of a controversial decision (Shogun vs Machida) and four inconclusive rematches.
I have to think that B.J. Penn may be in the Shogun Rua position of having lost a controversial decision. Benevidez, not so much.
These numbers make me appreciate the legendary three fight series between Randy Couture and Chuck Liddell all the more.
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kind of weird methodology
Maybe sergio listed everything the way he described it, but I’m skeptical that this data means anything.
GSP lost to Hughes the first time, then came back and dominated him. That doesn’t make the list? Not in the 2 year window or something?
GSP lost to Serra, then came back and dominated him. That doesn’t make the list?
I’m sure there are many others. I’m not going to go do a bunch of research myself, but this whole analysis by Sergio just seems… weird.
www.tapology.com | twitter @tapology
see beer monster’s reply below. it’s not the sample size… it’s picking a strange definition that doesn’t really mean anything.
www.tapology.com | twitter @tapology
It's both really
But my point was that Gsp had 2 fights before his rematch with Serra and 5 before his rematch with Hughes I would hardly call that a quick rematch.
true… but…
so what? isn’t it still a clear example where the guy who lost the first match was really, in fact, the better fighter, and it was demonstrated in the rematch?
i think so. and therefore pretty relevant. all the “quick rematch” definition does is make this whole thing confusing.
www.tapology.com | twitter @tapology
quick rematch
In theory, a quick rematch would mean that the fighters hadn’t evolved a whole lot since the first fight. GSP went from prospect to terror between the first two Hughes fights. Then he went from terror to master. The idea would be that GSP improved while Hughes aged, so it’s very different from the Penn-Edgar rematch.
Anyway, that’s the idea with the “quick rematch” theory, though I agree that 2 years is arbitrary and that small sample size also confounds the study.
I think it could be argued that Benevidez looks better now than he ever has. I’m not sure he’s a different fighter (I can’t tell what the hell is happening in this weight class.), but I think he’s got a good shot at Cruz.
Use more judges.
Kind of like what Mason A said
It’s all about time for the fighters to evolve. You can argue that it was the same Tim Silvia and AA that fought back to back, the Same Machida and Shogun that fought back to back, and it will be the same Penn and Edgar that fight back to back (although BJ will be healthy this time).
However, the Gsp that fought Serra the first time was far different from the head case that got KO’d be Serra and the Kid that couldn’t look Matt Hughes in the eyes in their first fight was much more evolved than the man who dominated him in their second match.
he put it in the "inconclusive" category
Randy Couture – Vitor Belfort** (The first fight ended in less than a minute because of a fluke eye injury caused by the edge of Belfort’s glove)
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nope
I sence some shogun action in this one. it will be finished and finished quick by BJ
The Red Wings will come back stronger
RESTORE THE ROAR 2010 Detroit Lions
BJ Penn
But how many of those historical matches were close decisions that many thought went the wrong way?
Shogun is a very strong counter-argument.
But you’re right about Benavidez. He’s getting crushed.
█♣█
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who -- Jay-Z
When it comes to BJ Penn
I don’t think numbers mean too much. He’s shown to be phenomenal when he has a fire lit under his ass, and I don’t think this time will be any different. He’s going to be the first to submit Frankie.
MMA journalism just makes me scratch my head sometimes
You don’t need all that weirdly selective data to know Benavidez probably hasn’t improved enough in one year to beat Cruz.
...like young thieves in a glowing orchard, loosely jacketed against the cold and ten thousand worlds for the choosing.
- C. McCarthy
How many of these "first" matches were won by the fighter...
…that lost according to FightMetric? Shouldn’t bad judging be accounted for?
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ.
I blog at TangleBones - you should follow me on Twitter here.
If you like it, you should put a rec on it.
by jemaleddin on Aug 16, 2010 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
What about Lyoto vs. Shogun?
That seems a tad more relevant than severn and shamrock.
And how did that go for the incumbent “victor?”
lyoto vs shogun is listed
in its own category “one rematch won by the loser of a controversial decision (Shogun vs Machida)”
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
You know what really spells bad odds for Benavidez?
Cruz is constantly improving and kicking ass in the gym right now. Some ill defined sample of prior fights doesn’t mean nearly as much as the fact that Dominic is gonna straight outclass him.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Benavidez is just there to set up the revenge aspect for the inevitable Urijah/ Cruz fight.
"I am a man who pisses largely and frequently, which they say is a sign of great mental activity" -Henry Miller-
by Neil Manich on Aug 16, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully, as Benavidez is another member of the “won’t fight teammates club”. But hopefully that doesn’t become an actual club because then there will be even more people not fighting each other…
Not that I condone facism or any ism for that matter. Isms are in my opinion, not good. A person shouldn't believe in an ism, he should believe in himself.
I quote John Lennon, "I don't believe in Beatles, I just believe in me". Good point there, after all he was the walrus. I could be the walrus. Wouldn't change the fact I have to bum rides off of people.
Benavidez is there because Jorgenson insulted Reed Harris' wife at the Christmas party.
At least that’s my theory why he’s not getting a title shot. Although the Urijah thing and WEC’s love affair with team Alpha Male certainly doesn’t help his cause.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Yeah, Jorgenson deserves it more
But I was being unfair earlier. Beating Miguel Torres still means something.
"I am a man who pisses largely and frequently, which they say is a sign of great mental activity" -Henry Miller-
by Neil Manich on Aug 16, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Beating Miguel is huge.
That guy has the fire of a thousand suns burning in his heart right now. The good kind, not the ‘too much chili’ kind. I feel bad for Charlie Valancia. If he goes into that fight thinking he’s picking the corpse of a faded legend, he’s gonna catch the nastiest beating this side of Rich Franklin vs. The Crow.
I still give Miguel great odds against anybody in the division on any given day. Valencia, with his marginal finishing ability and lack of excellence at any particular skill, is going to be in deep effing trouble.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
by pdl on Aug 16, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Cruz is one the most technical and tactical fighter is the sport. He does so much, all at one time.
"I trained with Steven Seagal."
by B.H. Farnsworth on Aug 16, 2010 12:35 PM EDT reply actions
reply fail
"I trained with Steven Seagal."
by B.H. Farnsworth on Aug 16, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the big tell for the Penn fight will be BJ’s motivation going in to it not statistics from other fights/fighters. I’m not quite ready to call the last fight a fluke but Edgar better bring everything he’s got for this one.
by who me on Aug 16, 2010 12:35 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Edgar has to change evrything if he wants a chance.
"I trained with Steven Seagal."
by B.H. Farnsworth on Aug 16, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Statistics are like a mini-skirt, what they reveal is interesting but what they conceal is crucial
This is a rubbish conclusion. Making odds with a minuscule sample size is about as useful as a magic 8-ball.
Bob Arum thinks I'm a white Nazi skinhead even though I'm a brown grad student (with hair)
“You can’t tell how people are going to act by how they have acted.” Don Draper last night.
"I am a man who pisses largely and frequently, which they say is a sign of great mental activity" -Henry Miller-
by Neil Manich on Aug 16, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, it's been a while since I've had a comment hidden.
I guess it’s “Show Respect to MMA Writers with Questionable Logic Week” again. It always sneaks up on me. :-)
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ.
I blog at TangleBones - you should follow me on Twitter here.
If you like it, you should put a rec on it.
Actually, let me post something more constructive:
I’m not sure when -350/+250 became “tough odds” but I think most fighters would be glad to go into a fight that way. Maybe “tough odds” means something new.
Wait, is that more constructive?
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ.
I blog at TangleBones - you should follow me on Twitter here.
If you like it, you should put a rec on it.
Still:
The FANTASTIC Article linked above may be some of the worst MMA Math I’ve ever witnessed. Deciding to ignore the facts that:
a) BJ won the first fight by any objective metric, and
b) BJ is an enormous favorite to win the second fight
…in favor of making comparisons to Dan Severn vs. Ken Shamrock is beyond crazy. How a bunch of fights that don’t involve the two guys fighting are more important than any of the facts about the actual fight in question is a mystery to me. Can anyone please enlighten me about how any of this is relevant – and more relevant than the points above?
Also: LinkedIn keeps telling me to add you to my network. Evidently, you’re a friend of a friend or something.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ.
I blog at TangleBones - you should follow me on Twitter here.
If you like it, you should put a rec on it.
Exactly
/sarcasm
Better known as Black Lesnar
Read me at WatchKalibRun
by S.C. Michaelson on Aug 16, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
wow we agree ....
go figure. Very well put btw.
Thanks - I'm not completely crazy.
I mean, look how many green comments I get! :-)
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ.
I blog at TangleBones - you should follow me on Twitter here.
If you like it, you should put a rec on it.
Nate !!! Is this where you wanna be when Jesus comes back???
Telling people its tough odds for Bj to beat frankie ? lol
I wish the people who make the odds believes this
because I will make a killing betting on BJ if the odds were on Frankie’s side
NO DOUBT
Dear Sergio Non,
Please talk to the oddsmakers about your interesting MMA Math. I look forward to reading an article about their response.
Sincerely,
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ.
I blog at TangleBones - you should follow me on Twitter here.
If you like it, you should put a rec on it.
Like a lot of things int he fight game I guess stats are interesting and can tell a history; but I don’t think they can tell much of a future when you only look at stats and ignore other facts.
Facts like the fight was a close decision and not a one sided demolition. Things like (IMO) BJ did not seem himself in the fight and whether you want to say the stories of him being ill were an excuse; make sense to someone from my viewpoint where I thought he looked off from round one.
Maybe it was Edgar throwing Penn off and not him being ill, I guess we’ll find out soon. But I don’t think so and despite stats thrown out in the article, oddsmakers don’t either.
royce/ yoshida shouldn’t be on that list because the first wasn’t an mma fight, it was a grappling match.
People really need to stop with the facts...
…or this crackpot theory is going to be RUINED.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ.
I blog at TangleBones - you should follow me on Twitter here.
If you like it, you should put a rec on it.
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