Jake Shields: "I Would Love to See Gilbert Melendez and Nick Diaz in the UFC"

My thoughts exactly regarding how Shields matches up against the WW division. I think the MW division actually suits him better.

He said he wouldn’t resign with SF because because he wanted to be a free agent. Sure he really wants to be in the UFC, but he himself said it was the best position to be financially.

Here’s what I imagined happened. Before the WEC mistake, Strikeforce plans on making an offer to Shields. They know he wants to go to the UFC but still they want to make a stab at retaining him so they can stave off the embarrassment of having their champ leave. Now they don’t want to break the bank but they figure $200,000 a fight with a four-fight guarantee is worth it. A Cung Le/ Shamrock contract.The UFC will probably match it, but the tried. That is until the image of Jake and Dana appeared…
Now SF pulls the offer and what does Zuffa have to offer? Maybe the original $100-150 k deal with only the 1st two fights guaranteed. Why offer more if they don’t have? Why trigger possible contract squabbles with Fitch or Kos if they don’t have to? I can’t see how he didn’t blow the great situation.

I just wanted to get that out of the way in case any one thought i had a grudge against shield or SF.

Why I wrote what I wrote:

Kos, Alves and Fitch all have better TD defense than Shields’ has TD offense. Hendo has been and will always be a mediocre mma wrestler. This should have been apparent to everyone long before the shields match — Hendo’s managed time and time again to be outwrestled by BJJ guys — Arona, Palhares, Nogueira, etc. have all had varying degrees of success wrestling Hendo to the ground, which should never, ever happen if you’re a good wrestler. I say this because I assume you (as well as those who rec’d your comment) think Shields will walk through the cream of the WW division because he beat hendo, and also because you are likely vastly overrating shields’ wrestling ability on the basis of that one fight (and Hendo may have even been injured to boot although he never fessed up to it as far as I’m aware).

Shields having a successful run against the cream of the WW division is extremely unlikely to happen.

To give him his due, I’ll note that Shields has an elite top game (he finished third in the 2007(?) ADCC) and deserves to be ranked where he is in the MW division (#3). He also deserves to be ranked #5 in the WW division and perhaps higher. Nevertheless, however high you wish to rank him, I would not favor him to beat Kos, Alves or Fitch. His BJJ game from his back consists of sweeps and he wouldn’t be able to sweep Kos or Fitch, the latter primarily because Fitch never leaves his opponent’s guard (I note that Shields swept Fitch in a submission match from half guard and I believe choked him out, but MMA is a completely different game; Shields got the sweep because Fitch (after taking Shields down) was attempting to pass his guard to earn points; he doesn’t need to do that in an MMA match) and the former because his balance, top control game, wrestling and cardio make it extremely unlikely he’ll ever be swept.

Moreover, Fitch and Kos can each likely take Shields down without much problem; they’re both exxcellent MMA wrestlers. Shields, in all likelihood, cannot take Alves down either. As mentioned, Shields’ wrestling is being vastly overvalued as a result of his fight with hendo. If he gets you down though, his top control is excellent, no doubt about it.

It goes without saying that Shields has no hope against GSP. I can step through the analysis but it basically boils down to Shields TDs < GSP’s TD defense.

Shields at MW is a much more interesting proposition. The MW division and in particular the UFC’s MW division, with the exception of Sonnen and perhaps Munoz (who’s turning out to be not such a good MMA wrestler) is completely free of wrestling talent, which is why Silva has been able to sail along without having to fight an actual wrestler (until now of course). I like Shields’ chances against Silva. Shields is a competent wrestler, and an excellent BJJ artist, who would not look to stand and bang. I wouldn’t even make Shields a big underdog in that fight. I think he’s also more than capable of beating Marquardt, Leben, Akiyama and the various other bums that currently call the MW division their home.

In sum, Jake Shields definitely does not suck: he has a great top game, is a competent wrestler and is a real threat to A. Silva. I don’t want to see SF fold, but I’m thrilled to see him in the UFC and I hope he’s successful. IMO, he, however, is not a real threat at WW, which is where he’ll convince himself he belongs only to find he’s not quite good enough a wrestler to beat any of the top 4 WWs (kos, alves, fitch, and GSP).

I think you’re basically right, although I disagree that N. Diaz, Hendo and Lawler couldn’t “make it” in the UFC, unless you have some preposterous and counter intuitive definition of that phrase. I think we’ll see some confirmation of this fact when Jardine ends up signing with SF and he makes decent money.

My point about the risk in shields’ case is that, if he gets kicked out of the UFC, strikeforce might not be an appealing option if Coker holds a grudge. If he can’t earn decent money in SF, he’s basically SOL. What other option does he have — Dream?

the offer strikeforce made him before the release was more than his previous contract and more than that.

You can’t compare a guy who comes in as a free agent to guys who were brought up in Zuffa and are working off of old contracts. Free agents always make more than homegrown talent … in every sport. At least they do until those homegrown guys test the market.

Again, Fitch & Kos are still working on old contracts and have never tested the free agent market. Free agents get paid a premium.