Is UFC 116 Going to Disappoint Despite the Return of Brock Lesnar? Is Shane Carwin at Fault?

don’t forget that the UFC dodge a HUGE bullet when the USA lost to Ghana last week or else the World Cup and the NBA free agency market aka LeBronmagedon would have taken all rather than just most of the oxygen out of the mainstream attention.

Besides, people forget that UFC 100 had Georges St. Pierre, the second biggest draw in the UFC.

Wanderlei is a guy that gets a lot of love, I’m sure him pulling out of the fight is also going to hurt the buy rate.

Rashad vs. Rampage was hyped for a very long time. Between TUF and the Primetime shows, it had a lot going for it especially because of the heat between them. Carwin and Lesnar haven’t had that.

Mega-fights like Fedor vs Brock 2009/2010 are so rare that they must be made if possible. History will not look kindly on those who botched that rare and golden opportunity.

If Nate was a little older, maybe he would remember that Fedor vs. Couture blockbuster main event. Glad Lesnar got to face him in his prime.

Should the UFC really put any blame on Carwin here? Even if the guy went out and did tons of media, he has zero personality. His canned lines didn’t do anything to get me excited. Not even to see him get his face smashed in. He’s just so…benign.

Where has the big push from Zuffa gone? It seems to me like they’ve banked on “Oh, Brock Lesnar, no need for a media push from us.” It’s certainly possible I’m just out of touch with the ESPN/MSM at this point, but it just seems like the company’s done very little to push this fight themselves.

Or at least, they shouldn’t have to be. Brock and Rampage are what they are. Carwin is what he is.

Forcing the hyped media marketing on a “regular guy” like Carwin is boring and usually transparent to the viewer. Shane has done all the talking he needs to with his fists — I’m quite happy with the results.

It is up to the UFC to hype UFC fights. If they have a fighter that can’t resist smack talk and mugging for the camera, it certainly makes their job easier but it is icing on the cake.

Yes, Carwin pulled back on his media obligations, possibly in a fit of pique because of his very small financial participation in the rewards of the event relative to Lesnar — even the reported payouts that MMA Mania got from the NSAC show a 10 to 1 disparity, but worse, Carwin won’t be getting a % of the PPV reven

Please stop listening to Snowden.

I don’t know why people are still harping on the Fedor/Brock thing (insofar as it was supposed to do great business). Even with the UFC marketing machine, what makes a chubby Russian from the Kremlin party who doesn’t speak English any more marketable than a guy as big as Lesnar who the UFC can at least market as having fatter fingers than Brock?

… but does the holiday weekend usually benefit or detract from the buys? or is it not a factor at all?

Depends on what you mean by blame. Who’s actions are more responsible for a lower potential buyrate? Lesnar, of course. He just didn’t do the media he probably should have, though he did do quite a bit. But who’s the REASON for the low buy rate? Obviously Carwin. People just don’t care about Carwin. I don’t think there’s that much Brock could have done about that. He’s a walking snoozefest and not at all a big name. Nobody’s interested in him.

…is going to help the numbers on this fight. The return of Lesnar, the Holiday weekend and the cross-coverage with other outlets like ESPN and USAToday will make this a 1 million+ buy. There is no other sports competition, no movies opening nation-wide to compete, and if you have a job, you’re on a time-and-a-half payday for Monday, so why not drop a couple double-sawbucks on a cheap evenings entertainment….

He wasn’t. The buyrates for PPV during Brocks big run as champion were not all that good.

we will see in about 5h (GMT -05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada)

Dana and Joe Silva can’t get away with a top-heavy card unless they hype the crap out of it.

This is really a response to all of the earlier comments about the demographics of pro wrestling fans and MMA fans. I suggest reading each of these:

http://www.solie.org/articles/pwandfans.html

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mixed-martial-arts-mma-attracts-young-adults-with-purchasing-power-71765747.html

While there is surely a lot of cross over—especially when it comes to Brock the Albino Mountain Gorilla—I think the notion that MMA owes its success to converted pro wrestling fans is simply false on the facts. Is there some overlap? Sure. But pro wrestling is still a sport mostly for very young people and very old people. The success of MMA, on the other hand, is driven by upwardly mobile 20 and 30 year olds. Or, that seems to be the view that comports with the facts. Or so methinks…

I hate to say it, ‘cause I’m rooting for Carwin…But I think he’s going to lose now, due to the Bald Man’s Curse….

First Rogers shaves the mohawk, KO’d cold…Then Fedor rocked the shaved head, got choked out (although that could also be the EA cover curse)…Now Shane’s sportin’ the cue ball, and sadly, he’ll probably end up GnP’d into the mat…

Still rootin’ for Shane though. :)

The combination of Lesnar vs Mir 2, GSP vs Alves (a true No#1 meets No#2 best in the world fight), and the payoff to TUF 9 with Bisping vs Henderson (a LOT of people wanted to see Bisping get shut up).

While Lesnar is without doubt UFC’s biggest draw, he has benefited from GSP being on a couple of the same cards as well, and GSP has become a big draw thanks probably in no small part to the rabid Canadian fanbase.

So if Lesnar vs Carwin does 800k buys, I personally wouldn’t consider that to be under-performing. 500k or less? Of course.

For those doubting the success a Brock Lesnar vs Fedor Emelianenko fight would have been, let me tell you you’re wrong. And thankfully string theory and quantum mechanics are a hobby of mine, so I was able to create a wormhole to an alternate reality and nab a quote from Kid Nate’s preview from this very different timeline:

The day has finally arrived for what is shaping up to be not only the biggest fight in mma history but one of the biggest fights in all combat sports when Brock Lesnar (4-1, 3-1 UFC) defends his belt tonight against the man who has ruled the heavyweight division for the better part of a decade, Fedor Emelianenko (32-1, 1-0 UFC).
For the longest time it felt as if this fight would never take place. Originally scheduled for UFC 106, it looked as if it would be the perfect event to capitalize on the momentum gained from UFC 100. Unfortunately Brock fell ill, and Fedor was rescheduled to fight Randy Couture in the dream match of 2008. This may have proven fortuitous for the UFC, because if anything the bout has grown even bigger following the Last Emperor’s destruction of Captain America in the first round at UFC 109 (which is my early vote for card of the year with Fedor vs Couture, Gegard Mousasi vs Thiago Silva, and potential fight of the year Nate Marquardt vs Dan Henderson), an event that sold 700,000 payperview buys and proved that Zuffa could turn Fedor into a draw with a hyped Primetime and the "Best of Pride: Best of Fedor" special.
Estimates for tonight now run above 2 million payperview buys. If that happens MMA will have crossed the threshold from being a niche sport and taken the crown that boxing has held for the last century as the combat sport of the masses. Much of the success can be attributed to the work that Zuffa has done: A Primetime featuring the pantheon of UFC starts discussing Fedor’s place in history contrasted against Brock’s return from death’s door; highlights of Fedor’s fights (especially his destruction of Tim Sylvia) popping up during TUF and Unleashed; and the great use of James Rogan in spots on The Ultimate Fighter discussing passionately why Fedor is the greatest of all time.
We are lucky, because we are about to witness the Ali-Frazier of our generation. Remember what you see, you will be telling future generations about it