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USAT/SBN July MMA Consensus Rankings: Heavyweight

Rankings compiled by Richard Wade.

Rank Fighter Points Promotion Last Rank
1 Brock Lesnar 348 UFC 2
2 Fedor Emelianenko 314 M-1 Global/Strikeforce 1
3 Cain Velasquez 307 UFC 4
3 Fabricio Werdum 307 Strikeforce 9
5 Shane Carwin 300 UFC 3
6 Junior dos Santos 280 UFC 6
7 Frank Mir 273 UFC 5
8 Alistair Overeem 262 Strikeforce/DREAM 7
9 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 247 UFC 8
10 Josh Barnett 180 DREAM/Impact Fighting 10
11 Antonio Silva 180 Strikeforce 12
12 Brett Rogers 170 Strikeforce 11
13 Gabriel Gonzaga 136 UFC 13
14 Cheick Kongo 110 UFC 14
15 Mirko Filipovic 101 UFC 16
16 Andrei Arlovski 92 Strikeforce 17
17 Aleksander Emelianenko 91 Free Agent 15
18 Roy Nelson 79 UFC 19
19 Pedro Rizzo 76 Impact FC 18
20 Ben Rothwell 72 UFC 20
21 Tim Sylvia 54 Free Agent 21
22 Randy Couture 49 UFC 22
23 Stefan Struve 38 UFC 23
24 Sergei Kharitonov 36 Strikeforce 25
25 Jeff Monson 35 Free Agent NR

Wow. What a historic month in MMA. We knew going in that it would be a big month given that the #1 and #2 heavyweights would both be fighting, but no one quite expected the way things turned out.

First off, we've got a new #1 Brock Lesnar who survived a real scare at the hands of #5 Shane Carwin to retain his title at UFC 116.

But it took more than just a Lesnar win to vault him to the top, #2 Fedor Emelianenko also had to lose. And he did to #3 Fabricio Werdum. This has left Strikeforce and M-1 Global in even more disarray than usual. 

There is no word on who will challenge #8 Alistair Overeem for his Strikeforce title.

The biggest beneficiary of the chaos at the top is the other man at #3 Cain Velasquez who will face Lesnar at UFC 121 in the fall.

#6 Junior Dos Santos will face off with #18 Roy Nelson in a UFC 117 bout that is expected to determine the first challenger to the winner of Lesnar/Velasquez.  #7 Frank Mir will face #9 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 119 in a bout that will return one man to contention and send the loser spiraling down and out of relevancy.

Star-divide

 

Based on the premise that all MMA rankings are subjective but that it’s still useful and informative to know who the online MMA community as a whole ranks as the best fighters in MMA, we collect and average the rankings of the top MMA websites to produce our consensus rankings. We compile the top MMA rankings from each of our sources and award 25 points for a first place ranking, 16 for a 10th place ranking, 1 for a 25th place ranking. A formula is used to "normalize" the data so all fighters are awarded points from those lists that do not include a full 25 fighters. This formula ensures that each ranking site awards the same number of total points regardless of how many fighters they choose to rank. Each fighter’s total is divided by the number of possible points to determine their standing in the Consensus Rankings.

We are now moving to what JCS of Fight Matrix has described as assumed rankings in an attempt to rank fighters who move between weight classes. This has been the biggest problem with the consensus rankings and we believe this new methodology will rectify that. 

Let's take Anderson Silva for instance. 87% (13 of 15) of our panelists have him at Light Heavyweight and 100% (15 of 15) at Middleweight.  On the 13 ballots that ranked Silva at 205, we took the average (21.2).  We then reduced that number by half the percentage of Light Heavyweight ballots that he was not included on. Say he's not on 30% of them, then we do a 15% penalty on the average that we found in the previous step.    That number is then used instead of the usual "normalization number" to provide points from those not ranking the fighter in the weight class in question. This avoids fighters being excessively penalized by confusion about which weight class they belong.

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Hmm...

Fedor above Werdum. I understand why, but what happened to jumping the guy you beat?

by truck on Jul 29, 2010 9:18 AM EDT reply actions  

the panelists didn't feel Werdum merited that ranking

it’s not at all uncommon for a fighter who wins in a huge upset to not jump the guy he beat.

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by Kid Nate on Jul 29, 2010 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think the Fedor / Werdum situation is almost identical to Edgar / Penn

Both fighteres unseated long reigning number 1’s
Edgar had a recent loss to Maynard while Werdum had a recent loss to JDS
If you don’t drop Fedor below Werdum, you might as well keep him at number 1.

by truck on Jul 29, 2010 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not you specifically

by truck on Jul 29, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not at all. Penn was undisputed the best in that weight class and UFC had most of the guys next in line.

Werdum beating Fedor proves as much Fedor was over ranked and clinging on only b/c he kept getting W’s as it did Werdum was a bit under ranked. (But not under so much that he should be #1, he should be right above Fedor in the middle of the pack where Fedor should be).

Let the attacks commence.

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by JeremyShane on Jul 29, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Attack Number 1

The UFC Lightweight division doesn’t have a lot of the top guys, at least in comparison with the other divisions. Only 6 of the top 10.

"Deserve's got nothing to do with it." -Will Munny, a known thief and murderer, a man of notoriously vicious and intemperate disposition.

by PapaBumpants on Jul 29, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

six of the top ten is the majority; esp when we’ve seen how overanked Aoki is

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by JeremyShane on Jul 29, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think you said anything that really countered my argument there

If Fedor was ranked too high, then he should have moved below #2

by truck on Jul 29, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

yea, that’s what I’m saying; he should be a bit lower than #2

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by JeremyShane on Jul 29, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah yes. Werdum’s win over Fedor doesn’t mean anything, because Fedor was overrated, as we can see because he lost to Werdum.

UFC logic!

by Amor on Jul 29, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

it’s going to take more low ranked people beating Fedor for people to realize he is over ranked and should be riding the middle of that list.

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by JeremyShane on Jul 29, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree withe Fedor at number two

I don’t agree with Carwin above JDS

Werdum, Gonzaga, Struve, Crocop > Gonzaga, Mir, Wain, Wellisch

Called it before the fight:
Cardio - The BIG question. Does Shane Carwin have cardio? He's never gone past the first round. His muscle mass is astounding and we all know that with all that muscle comes a need for the heart to pump fresh oxygenated blood to keep them from building lactic acid. He does train up in the thin air of Colorado, so that can't do anything but help. However, we have seen him pretty winded after a 1st round fight. Adrenaline dump or cardio problems? We won't find out the answer to that until someone takes him out of the first round.

by S.C. Michaelson on Jul 29, 2010 9:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Carwin's getting much love

for nearly decapitating Lesnar.

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by Kid Nate on Jul 29, 2010 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Really?

Carwin damn near beat Lesnar until he got caught.

"Dodger fans aren’t happy when foul balls get into their section, because it interferes with their playing with the beachball"- Mike Krukow

by 49er16 on Jul 29, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Carwin didn’t get caught, he gassed and got beat by the guy with superior conditioning.

by ufc4 on Jul 29, 2010 2:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Carwin got caught by the second round

Overhand right to the gas tank will rock you every time.

by simpsycho on Jul 29, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shit, I thought he got caught by the three minute mark of round one. Straight left to the anti-lactic acidosis cavity.

by ufc4 on Jul 29, 2010 3:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I have no idea what that last line means

4 fighters in column A are better than the 4 in column B… including the one in both columns? huh?

http://mixedmartialartsblogger.wordpress.com/

by Cory Braiterman on Jul 29, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

He means beating those 4 is more impressive than beating those 3

by nastyem on Jul 29, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

errrr, 4 at the end, not 3

by nastyem on Jul 29, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

the heavyweight division is really in an awkward position rankings wise

sure brocks #1 but technically werdum deserves to be ranked above fedor for beating him, however in my opinion JDS, cain, and carwin all deserve to be ranked above werdum but fedor still deserves to be ranked above them.

the division is really in an awkward paradox

We have a saying back home that if your coming on, COME ON!!!!

by milk72 on Jul 29, 2010 9:38 AM EDT reply actions  

I look at it somewhat like NCAA FB or BB

If the #10 or #12 team beats #1, they essentially never move up past them, nor should they.

Frankly, IMO Werdum doesn’t even belong tied at #3, or even close to it. If he runs the gauntlet of Overeem, Mir, Carwin, JDS, and Cain, he probably goes 1-4 or 2-3 at very best…and 0-5 is a real possibility.

He would be the underdog in all of those aside from Mir.

"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." -Author Schopenhauer

Haters are gonna hate and bitches are gonna bitch...

by BigDNotDallas on Jul 29, 2010 11:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

What?

Werdum has wins against Overeem, Gabriel Gonzaga, Antonio Silva and the greatest heavyweight of all time in Fedor. In his losses he was only knocked out once by JDS. The rest all went to the cards. People need to stop disrespecting Werdum. He may not be the most exciting fighter but he is very dangerous and an amazing technician.

by memitim on Jul 29, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

What, exactly, has Aleks Emelianenko done to be that high on the rankings?

You don't like wrestling in MMA? Go watch K-1.

by Monday Morning Martial Artist on Jul 29, 2010 10:35 AM EDT reply actions  

he fought a bear. I think his recent loss to the bull will move him down next month.

by Phildo on Jul 29, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Hahahaha!

"Deserve's got nothing to do with it." -Will Munny, a known thief and murderer, a man of notoriously vicious and intemperate disposition.

by PapaBumpants on Jul 29, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

inertia

He used to be well regarded. Despite his inactivity and fighting in nowhere, Azerbaijan, he still hasn’t actually lost, so shrug. I disagree with it as well, just saying what the reason is.

http://mixedmartialartsblogger.wordpress.com/

by Cory Braiterman on Jul 29, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

the amount of inertia in the rankings is really amazing

once you’re in the top 10 it takes forever or a long string of brutal losses to drop completely out.

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by Kid Nate on Jul 29, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not only that, with 3 consecutive losses Arvloski managed to go up one place in the rankings somehow.

by NinjaCodah on Jul 29, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

it seems especially bad in hw. I really don’t get it.

by Phildo on Jul 29, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Inertia is a very good word for it

Additionally, do you have the formula y’all use published somewhere?

"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." -Author Schopenhauer

Haters are gonna hate and bitches are gonna bitch...

by BigDNotDallas on Jul 29, 2010 11:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

More specifically

The data / formula used for “normalizing” those lists with less than 25 listed. I assume you use some sort of weighted average of the consensus from those sites that actually rank all, but idk.

If so, that means for example that if 10 sites rank all 25, and 5 only the top-10, #11-#25 of those 5 sites will simply be given the average of their ranking on the 10 sites that do include all 25.

In other words, #11-#25 of all sites that only have a top-10 is identical, correct?

"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." -Author Schopenhauer

Haters are gonna hate and bitches are gonna bitch...

by BigDNotDallas on Jul 29, 2010 11:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

wait I found it

JRN of FightMatrix developed it and shared it with us in the comments way back in the day:

The "normalization number" (new name) would be:
120 divided by (Total Fighters Found in Any List minus 10)
Every fighter found somewhere else, but on a Top 10 list would be assigned this number. The "normalization" number would not apply to a fighter not found on a Top 25 list. They would simply get 0. So the process would be: Do all of the Top 25 lists first, #1 = 25, #2 = 24…. #24 = 2, #25 = 1 Do all of the Top 10 lists, same scoring structure.. stops at #10 = 16 Figure out that normalization variable. Fill in the normalization variable to all fighters not found in the Top 10 lists, but found elsewhere. Do your totals and rank.

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by Kid Nate on Jul 29, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

and here's Richard's explanation (via email)
Each ballot accounts for 325 points. If they rank 25 fighters, this simply goes 25 points for 1st, 24 for 2nd…2 for 24th, 1 for 25th. However, if they only rank 10 fighters that only adds up to 205 points. Their remaining 120 are then evenly divided among fighters ranked on at least one ballot, but that are not ranked on theirs. For instance, if there are 43 fighters being ranked their points will be distributed 25 for 1st, 24 for 2nd…17 for 9th, 16 for 10th, 3.64 for each of the 33 fighters they didn’t rank.
And you can also add this if you want: We do other adjustments for fighters like Shields, Henderson and Silva who are only unranked due to weight class, but that’s a whole different story.

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by Kid Nate on Jul 29, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

aleks over roy, man these rankings reek of pay outs and bias.

"How you expect to run with the wolves come night when you spend all day sparring with the puppies" - Omar Little

by The Omaplatapus on Jul 29, 2010 11:41 AM EDT reply actions  

who are you accusing of being paid off?

I think most of the rankers still remember Nelson’s losses to Arlovski and Rothwell.

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by Kid Nate on Jul 29, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dana white told me Aleks and his people paid you off for that ranking.

by nastyem on Jul 29, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

they paid me off with the money Aleks gets from being sponsored by Hep C oh wait

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by Kid Nate on Jul 29, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

and they remember aleks victory to who?

"How you expect to run with the wolves come night when you spend all day sparring with the puppies" - Omar Little

by The Omaplatapus on Jul 29, 2010 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where’s my check?

Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate

by Richard Wade on Jul 29, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

GET REAL.

When Brock wins his next 5-10 fights in a row, he should be at #1, not before that. Fedore makes one mistake in 30+ fights and he gets a shit load of disrespect.

by justbleed9999 on Jul 29, 2010 12:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Brock should be unanimous at #1

Whomever didn’t put him there should explain themselves publicly.

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
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by Derek Suboticki on Jul 29, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fightmetric I bet

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by Worldisart on Jul 30, 2010 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ballots are secret (but I’ll be posting mine shortly)

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
Contributor for WatchKalibRun.com
Still Subo at Fightlinker.com

by Derek Suboticki on Jul 30, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

They’re not secret so much as I just don’t bother to publish them.

Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate

by Richard Wade on Aug 1, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also, I think it was Holland who ranked Overeem #1.

Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate

by Richard Wade on Aug 1, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, the consensus #2 HW in the world- HOW FUCKING DISRESPECTFUL.

by ufc4 on Jul 29, 2010 2:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

… I had Fedor 6th on my ballot.

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
Contributor for WatchKalibRun.com
Still Subo at Fightlinker.com

by Derek Suboticki on Jul 29, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wait...

…7th.

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
Contributor for WatchKalibRun.com
Still Subo at Fightlinker.com

by Derek Suboticki on Jul 29, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Next month your ballot only counts for 160 points.

Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate

by Richard Wade on Jul 29, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

You love it. Don’t lie.

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
Contributor for WatchKalibRun.com
Still Subo at Fightlinker.com

by Derek Suboticki on Jul 30, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

When Cain Beats Brock...

…Kick Brock down a couple rankings please.

by justbleed9999 on Jul 29, 2010 12:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Don’t worry, if Cain wins Brock will move down, that’s pretty much how things work.

by ufc4 on Jul 29, 2010 2:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I think everyone is missing the big story here

Ray Mercer’s name is no where to be found on the list!

by John Nash on Jul 29, 2010 12:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Yay no Ray!

Nelson should be higher.

Cain should be a solid 3 while Werdum is 4

What’s up with Arlovski moving up in the rankings?

I apologize for my never-ending assault on the English Language. I feel like Qui the promoter from Jade Empire...

by xAtlasx on Jul 29, 2010 1:07 PM EDT reply actions  

He moved above aleks, which probably should have happened a while ago.

by Phildo on Jul 29, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I still can’t believe that I paid money to watch Sylvia vs Monson.

Did you see the size of that chicken?

by Heenan on Jul 29, 2010 1:53 PM EDT reply actions  

wow

way to dredge up some bad memories. I watched that one alone in a bar because NONE of my buds were down and I couldn’t justify the expense to my wife. On the plus side we got to see Brandon Vera demolish Frank Mir and establish himself as a top heavyweight contender. Oh wait.

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by Kid Nate on Jul 29, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I get an awkward, dirty feeling everytime I think about it. It’s like I got dupped into a pyramid scheme or my wife talking me into tasting the milk to see if it had spoiled.

Did you see the size of that chicken?

by Heenan on Jul 29, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really can’t stand Monson.

Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate

by Richard Wade on Jul 29, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Roy got fucking jobbed in that fight.

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
Contributor for WatchKalibRun.com
Still Subo at Fightlinker.com

by Derek Suboticki on Jul 30, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

What about Jones?

Fighters like Silva are represented in more than one weight class. I think Jones should be ranked in with the Heavies too, since he’s already talking about fighting there.

Your parents must be siblings.

by IKilled007 on Aug 2, 2010 8:37 PM EDT reply actions  

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