Clash of the Titans: Lesnar vs Carwin, UFC 116

Throughout the week, I have examined the principle fighters in the upcoming UFC Heavyweight Title match on Saturday, July 3rd. The champion Brock Lesnar and the challenger Shane Carwin were both evaluated as overall fighters and had their fight history in the UFC reviewed.  (Lesnar’s breakdown and fight review and Carwin’s breakdown and fight review) Today it all comes together as I look at the matchup itself and how each fighter’s strength and weaknesses should affect the fight. Now I could go into some high-level kinesiological philosophy and get into a plyometric dissection, but where’s the fun in that? I will instead turn to the bastion of real world application, comic books.

Still with me? Now you might be saying to yourself ‘Why comic books?’ To be honest, I don’t have that answer, but the more I thought about it, the more it made sense to me. The heavyweight title fight on Saturday is a matchup between two titans, two giants of the sport. And what better representations of the two combatants can we find than The Hulk and The Thing. The champion Brock Lesnar is the real-life personification of the Hulk while Shane Carwin is the Thing manifested in flesh and bone. Absurd? Perhaps on the surface, but a closer look while reveal the method to my madness.

You can look at the challenger Carwin and right off the bat and see the physical similarities. Both men are very large, both men are tanned brown and both men are bald. Carwin, like Grimm, has a gruff exterior and tumultuous relationship with the media. The Thing has punched out several reporters while Carwin has loudly criticized all media and will block you from his Twitter. The Thing is incredibly strong and known for throwing some of the hardest punches in the Marvel world; the same can be said for Carwin. The Thing isn’t just some dumb brute, he has scientific knowledge; Carwin is famously an engineer. Shane Carwin trains with probably the most-famous team in MMA, Winklejohn-Jackson’s MMA; the Thing works with the world-renowned Fantastic Four.  

With Lesnar, you have the Hulk, one of the most feared beasts in all of comics. You could literally paint Lesnar green and he’d be the spitting image of the Hulk right down to the stupid square of hair on top of his head.  Both Hulk and Lesnar are among the strongest in their respective worlds and are incredibly quick and agile for men of their considerable size. Hulk is a loner, preferring to find solitude in the woods and mountains; Lesnar is….a loner who, uh, also prefers to find solitude in the woods and mountains. The last time the Hulk got out of control and angry, it took a whole team of the Avengers and Fantastic Four to "stop" him. When Frank Mir went traipsing through Lesnar’s strawberry patch, it took the whole MGM Grand security to hold him back. You won’t like either of them when they are angry.

Both fighters have a wrestling background; both were champions in their respective divisions. However, Lesnar was a Division I Champion while Carwin was Division II. We’ve seen Lesnar use his wrestling time and time again, so we know it’s sharp. The same cannot be said for Carwin. We have not seen his wrestling. If we are to judge by his one takedown of Neil Wain and how Gonzaga was able to easily take him down, it would lead us to think that the wrestling advantage is massive. I don’t believe that is the case. Critics also point to the difficulty Lesnar had in taking Couture down and that Couture took Lesnar down as an indicator that Lesnar can be stuffed and taken down by someone with skills. That is true; a skilled wrestler can stymie takedowns and use technical advantages to take someone down. I would, however, point out that Couture only put Lesnar on his butt and that was not from a standing position, Lesnar was rising from a scramble.  Both men have been on top and both men finished from the top, we’ve seen Carwin on his back scramble quickly to stand up, Lesnar on his back is something we’ve not seen, but it is something I don’t think we will see. I expect Lesnar to be able to take Carwin down, can he hold him there, we don’t know. What I do know is that Lesnar trains with championship caliber wrestlers that are of comparable size and wrestling ability as Shane Carwin while Carwin brought in Ron Waterman to emulate Lesnar’s size. When it comes to wrestling, Lesnar has the clear advantage.

The prima facie standup look shows Carwin as the clear favorite as he has KO’d people on the feet while Lesnar has not. Which is true, Carwin KO’d Gonzaga, however, his Wellisch "KO" is eerily similar to how Lesnar dropped Couture. Both men dropped like a ton of bricks, both men put their hands up to defend themselves as neither man was out cold. In Wellisch’s case, the ref stepped in to stop the fight after the first couple strikes while Couture was subjected to a barrage of hammerfists. It should be noted that Wellisch got up instantly after the fight was called with no troubles. Both men have power, Carwin’s power has been more destructive in his fights, the question in my mind is "Is that a symptom of the caliber of fighters Carwin has fought?"

There are big holes in Carwin’s standup that I have already addressed. If he does not fix those, Lesnar will hurt him. Lesnar has hurt every opponent he’s faced on the feet. People said I was overly critical of Carwin’s technique because it has worked (which is true) and I say the same thing as Lesnar’s standup is labeled as rudimentary (which is technically untrue) while it has worked for Lesnar as well. The biggest factor in the standup will be the reach and footwork which is where Lesnar has the advantage. Lesnar is great at being inside of range and using his stance, reach and footwork to quickly close the distance. Carwin, not so much. On the feet, both men’s chins have been tested. Honestly the jury is still out. Lesnar has taken more hard shots In my opinion while Carwin faltered against Gonzaga for a brief period of time and recovered quickly. Lesnar has never been hit by someone like Carwin and Carwin has never been hit by someone like Lesnar.

Standup is the most risky element of this fight because the one punch KO power is there in both sides. All the scientific preparation in the world can’t plan for power. Every man has a plan until they get hit. I expect Lesnar to plan on using his reach to keep Carwin at range and use his strikes to setup the takedown. I don’t think Carwin is quick enough to close the distance without Lesnar being ready for him. I think the speed advantage in this fight will literally shock people. I’m talking Rashad/Rampage levels where you knew one guy was faster, but didn’t know the speed was going to be that much of a disparity until they got in the cage.  If Lesnar allows Carwin to get close, Carwin will try to end his title run. If Carwin doesn’t keep his guard up, his night could be short. On the feet, I’m calling it a push. Lesnar, while not the most technical fighter, has enough of a technical edge and congruency in power to offset the perceived KO power that Carwin has.

In the clinch is where I see the best option for Carwin. He destroyed Mir in the clinch by first attacking his legs and getting his mind off Shane’s hands which then allowed Shane to pummel him into submission. Carwin’s power offensively against the cage cannot be denied. However, Mir looked lost as to what to do when against the cage. Lesnar has shown that he knows the correct things to do in controlling his opponent while against the cage. And that’s the question; can Carwin get Lesnar against the cage? He was easily able to bully Mir against the cage but struggle and was ultimately unable to do that against Neil Wain. Lesnar is not Frank Mir. Mir has recently put on 20 or 30 pounds of weight in order to "compete"; he wasn’t used to the weight IMO. Can Lesnar get Carwin against the cage? I don’t know. I believe he can, but to say it is a certainty would be a great leap on my part. If he is able to get Carwin against the cage, how will Carwin deal with that? Good question. We don’t know. That’s the jest of Carwin as a whole.  We do know that he hits hard and if Lesnar allows Carwin’s hands to roam free, it could be disastrous for him.

Carwin will come into this fight well-prepared. Contrary to popular belief, Carwin is not trained by Greg Jackson; he trains in Denver with Grudge. Jackson is, however, part of the game-planning and I’m sure he’ll have a well-thought game plan put together. Jackson’s actual acumen is a subject of discussion among the more enlightened members of the MMA fanbase, but that is another post. Reports say Carwin brought in former WWF and MMA fighter Ron Waterman.  I don’t think there’s much that Waterman can do that Lesnar does not do three times as well. Lesnar is training with Team Deathclutch which might as well be called Team Lesnar. He’s bringing in world class trainers, expense be damned. He’s trains with wrestlers which similar or better pedigrees than Carwin who are also just as large. Lesnar will also be well-prepared.  Carwin has never been outside the first round, Lesnar has. I believe Lesnar will have the better cardio and if the fight goes beyond the first round or so, Carwin will be in some trouble.

The big question around Brock is his return. Brock Lesnar was, by all intents and purposes, near death. We all know the story. Reports say Lesnar is not cutting more than three pounds. This had lead fans to believe that Lesnar has not gained his size back. That is a misconception. Lesnar has lost the excess fat that he had. When fighters cut, all they do is drain the body (mostly fat cells) of excess water thru extreme controlled dehydration. Even under the guide of experienced minds, this has an effect on your body. What Lesnar has done is bypass this process by getting rid of the excess fat/water through diet, keeping him around the target weight naturally. So while Carwin may "walk around" at 290 lbs, that is his "out of shape" weight. Lesnar doesn’t allow that to happen anymore. Notice that Carwin doesn’t take his shirt off until the weigh-in. That is because most of the pound advantage he has on Nu-Lesnar is fat.

Another result of the return is the "ring rust" factor. Lesnar hasn’t been in the ring in almost a year. Studies have shown that fighters coming off long layoffs are adversely affected. And that’s true. However, I don’t think that will be the case in Lesnar. First, remember that this fight was scheduled for November when it was canceled and Lesnar had been in camp for weeks. He then was back in camp in January to put the weight back on his frame. And then was back in camp in late-May to prepare for this fight. It’s not as if he has been completely out of the game like a Rampage Jackson. Couple that with the fact that Lesnar only has 4 real fights. He hasn’t developed into the routine of a veteran fighter where they camp, then fight, then decompress, then camp, fight, decompress, in a cycle. He hasn’t been in that routine enough to have it adversely affect him when the cycle is broken. I don’t believe the layoff will be a factor in this fight.

A small train of thought of mine is I think Carwin is cracking mentally. I think the pressure is getting to him the closer and closer he approaches the fight. He quarrels with the media, his posting of a blog complaining about his pay and his grumbles about being criticized for not "talking up" the fight are all recent episodes are atypical of the persona he claims to possess. This is his first time in the main event, his first time being responsible for carrying the burden of selling a PPV. This is also his first real title fight. To be a World’s champion means something especially as the winner of this fight will take the mantle as the undisputed number one heavyweight in the world. Lesnar’s mindset? This is almost something of a celebration. Lesnar is flying his whole team out to this fight as his career was resurrected and his life rescued. Lesnar is a little softer in the media, but his mindset is the same. This is a job and he is here to do it.

So how do I see this fight playing out? It’s easy to assume that I’m picking Lesnar in this matchup. And you would be correct. This fight will start standing and that’s where Carwin has his best chance. He needs to try and push Lesnar against that cage. I don’t think he can do it. Lesnar will take him down surprisingly easy. At that point, it becomes a battle of wills. Will Carwin get up off his back or will Lesnar TKO him? Depends on how early in the round Carwin goes down. Carwin will be looking for the "stockade" predicament that Mir caught himself in, but Coach Paulson and his CSW style will have something specifically thought up to neutralize Carwin on the ground.

So what of that epic battle between the Hulk and the Thing? The Hulk took the Thing’s best shots and shrugged them off and bludgeoned the Thing until the Avengers came and saved Thing’s bacon. In this battle, it’s one on one. There are no Avengers. There is no Fantastic Four. It’s just Lesnar and Carwin. Two big behemoths locked inside a cage destined to fight until one man says ‘I quit’ or a referee stops the fight.  I predict a ref stoppage, probably sometime in the 2nd round as Lesnar does what Lesnar does best and that’s take ‘em down and then vicious ground and pound.