By the numbers: How do UFC fights end?
by mma_critic on Jul 19, 2010 6:53 PM EDT
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PrintI decided to compile all the UFC fights into a single dataset, though there's a bit of missing data (usually the time that a fight ends). I'm still messing around with everything and thought I'd share some initial results. Here's a breakdown (by percentage) of how UFC fights have ended since 1993.
|
|
Submission |
TKO |
KO |
Decision |
Draw |
No Contest |
Number of Fights |
|
1993 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
|
1994 |
75 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
|
1995 |
60 |
22.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
5 |
0 |
40 |
|
1996 |
46.5 |
32.6 |
9.3 |
11.6 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
|
1997 |
41.5 |
34.1 |
2.4 |
19.5 |
2.4 |
0 |
43 |
|
1998 |
32 |
24 |
12 |
32 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
|
1999 |
20.5 |
40.9 |
13.6 |
20.4 |
4.5 |
0 |
44 |
|
2000 |
31.0 |
21.4 |
7.1 |
38.1 |
2.4 |
0 |
42 |
|
2001 |
25.6 |
20.5 |
20.5 |
30.8 |
0 |
2.6 |
39 |
|
2002 |
18.9 |
43.4 |
7.5 |
28.3 |
0 |
1.9 |
53 |
|
2003 |
20 |
35 |
10 |
30 |
5 |
0 |
40 |
|
2004 |
30.8 |
17.9 |
25.6 |
25.6 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
|
2005 |
27.5 |
32.5 |
15 |
23.8 |
0 |
1.3 |
80 |
|
2006 |
31.4 |
22.4 |
12.8 |
33.3 |
0 |
0 |
156 |
|
2007 |
32.4 |
22.4 |
8.2 |
35.9 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
170 |
|
2008 |
26.9 |
31.8 |
9.5 |
31.8 |
0 |
0 |
201 |
|
2009 |
23.5 |
25.8 |
7.5 |
42.7 |
0.5 |
0 |
213 |
|
2010 |
22.1 |
25.7 |
6.6 |
44.9 |
0.7 |
0 |
136 |
You'll notice that the number of fights have increased dramatically in recent years. From only 80 fights five years ago, we've already seen 136 fights in 2010... and we're only halfway through the year.
The other thing you might notice is the 10-15% increase in decisions over the last two years. However, you should keep in mind that this number represents all UFC fights, not just the ones that have been televised. I hope to eventually put together the data so that I can break down results by televised card (which may drive these numbers up or down).
Two quick notes. (1) Data is from Sherdog Fight Finder. (2) Number may not add up to 100 due to rounding error but should be very close.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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I wonder if that is because the fighters are just getting that much better, and therefore, be harder to finish.
by chrisbboy82 on Jul 19, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
…And the distribution over weightclasses. A lot more lightweightfights added over the last couple of years.
Without checking any numbers, my guess is that prolly around 75% of heavyweight-fights are finishes, while the same number for lightweights probably is around 35-40%.
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by BlueberryMuffin on Jul 20, 2010 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting...
For the record, the issue of whether decisions are on the rise is a fairly contentious one, so be prepared for an onslaught of hate for it.
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by Scott C. Broussard on Jul 19, 2010 8:17 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, that’s why I made the comment about the numbers being for all fights, not just the ones we see on TV. It may very well be that the overall numbers are constant, but we’re SEEING more decisions… but I don’t have the data to say that yet.
To put things in perspective… let’s say an 11-fight UFC PPV has 5 fights on the televised card that all go to decision, but all six non-televised bouts saw a finish. Well, over 50% of fights were finished via sub/KO/TKO, but 100% of the televised fights (i.e. the ones we saw) went to a decision. Then, the numbers stay constant, but we the viewers are seeing far more decisions than we used to.
Not saying that last paragraph is correct, but it shows how both sides can be right and wrong at the same time.
by mma_critic on Jul 19, 2010 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
My instinct tells me that there would be a slightly-higher finish % for the televised card than for the unaired portion. I’d reason that an undercard fight has a much higher chance of making the televised broadcast if it ended in a finish, which would therefore skew the televised “finish %” upwards rather than downwards.
It’ll be interesting to see if that reasoning bears itself out.
by DuRuffio on Jul 20, 2010 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Very interesting. You put in quite a bit of time and effort!
The most interesting thing for me is definitely the increase in decisions and HUGE spike in the sheer numbers of fights.
You should post this over at MMAmania, or if not would you mind if i did, this is interesting.
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by SouthCaliStunNa on Jul 19, 2010 8:21 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks for the suggestion
Posted it here.
by mma_critic on Jul 19, 2010 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Number of fights
Never realized the number of fights jumped 400% from 2002 to 2008. Thanks for the good intel.
I'm waiting for a retired hockey enforcer to make the jump to strikeforce.
2007... You mean 2010
Thanks for compiling this, dude! Great!
"Daydreams of a 'fair' world which would treat him according to his 'real worth' are the refuge of all those plagued by a lack of self-knowledge." -- Ludwig von Mises.
Great stuff
I did a few of these for 2009 and (so far) 2010 but going back to 1993 is pretty impressive.
Interesting to see how subs have decreased.
The Dos Equis guy wishes he was Brock Lesnar.
I use statistical software at work, so I didn’t do the numbers by hand. It took a while to get all the data from Sherdog into a usable dataset, but that’s it. Any analysis I do now takes five minutes or less.
I may make a call on my BE brothers and sisters to help me collect some of the other data I want, like the PPV buys, gate, and tickets sold for each UFC event. Then I can add in the fighters on each card and give you a much better idea of how much of a draw any given fighter is.
by mma_critic on Jul 19, 2010 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Lucky you....I did my numbers by hand. :(
If you have any other projects and need help BE is here for you!
The Dos Equis guy wishes he was Brock Lesnar.
Very interesting stuff. I’d be curious about the drawing power as well.
In terms of this graph, I wonder what percentage of submissions are taps due to strikes. I imagine the inconsistency of data would make it tough to determine. Likewise with submissions broken down by technique.
by HarmlessNinja on Jul 20, 2010 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I can give a rough idea
269 fights ended due to “Punches” and another 49 ended due to “Strikes” based on Sherdog Fight Finder. Of those due to “Punches,” 15 were recorded as submissions. For “Strikes,” 21 were recorded as submissions.
So, 318 fights ended due to “Punches” or “Strikes,” and 36 of those (a little over 10%) were considered submissions.
There might be more, but I’d have to look for the different ways that Sherdog considered some form of strike (eg. “Punches” and “Strikes”) as a “Winning Method.”
by mma_critic on Jul 20, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
So that means that traditional submissions may be even less of a factor in modern MMA…
It really seems like submissions due to strikes should be put in the TKO category for purposes of tabulating how prevalent the sub game is. A comparison is that when someone passes out without tapping, the fight is not declared a KO or TKO, it’s a “technical submission.” Also, fights where someone does not answer the bell are scored how? I think it’s TKO, but that could be due to any form of exhaustion. There’s probably some work to be done to take out TKOs like Cote’s knee injury as well.
I sound like a dick trying to make more work for you. Sorry. Your work is good and these tweaks probably wouldn’t shift stats much.
Use all ten points.
No, you don’t sound like a dick at all. In fact, I completely agree with you, but that would be a hassle for me to fix. If someone was paying me, I might feel inclined to do it. But since this is a hobby for me and – like you said – it won’t change the numbers much, I’ll stick with Sherdog’s data for now.
If it helps put things in perspective, 420 of the 1411 fights ended in submission. 9 fights are missing the “Winning Method,” but it looks like 2 subs and mostly DQs for the others. And, for some reason, no details on the Lindland-Almeida fight at UFC 31.
by mma_critic on Jul 20, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
About how finishes are recorded
When David Heath went unconscious against Babalu, it was recorded as a submission, not a technical submission.
When BJ Penn didn’t answer the bell against GSP, it’s listed as a TKO due to Corner Stoppage. I’ve got 10 fights ending due to Corner Stoppage, all recorded as TKOs.
by mma_critic on Jul 20, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
ok
so at most we’re talking about 10 or so out of 1400 fights? Probably just leave it be.
Though the part of me that is anal says: GSP tapped to strikes against Serra! That’s not a TKO! There must be more of these!
Thank you for your time.
Use all ten points.
Decisions have gone up because fighters are closer together in skill
More decisions means the matchmaker is doing a good job.
Subs have went down because Gracie isn’t booking the tournament with fighters with no ground experience, I mean jiu jitsu is becoming more popular and a part of MMA training.
Cause there's only one, and that's me
You understand? for all that fighting, you understand
That sucka think he good, that sucka think he can whoop me
And i know he can't whoop me, Ay boy, the n**** whole style is chump
by S.C. Michaelson on Jul 19, 2010 10:05 PM EDT reply actions
Wow
2004 was the year of the knockout. It’s funny how the 1’st 2 years were dominated by Gracie Jiu Jitsu submissions (courtesy of our boy Royce), and then everyone kinda figured out how to defend them. Then the wrestlers came in, and by 1999 the TKO rate exploded.
Rec’d =)
Supporting all Las Vegas MMA. Xtreme Couture- "The Best Never Rest!"
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-Socrates
interesting, too
because there were only 39 fights in 2004, Chuck Liddell was responsible for 20% of the knockouts that year (assuming that 25.6% translates into 10 KOs in 39 fights). I think there may be a grain of salt to be taken because the line between KO and TKO can be pretty fine.
Use all ten points.
That's when you know you're a badass
When you’re responsible for 1/5 knockouts that happen in a year of action in the UFC.
Vintage Chuck was a dog
Supporting all Las Vegas MMA. Xtreme Couture- "The Best Never Rest!"
"I swear it upon Zeus an outstanding runner cannot be the equal of an average wrestler."
-Socrates
by ElliotMatheny on Jul 20, 2010 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
It makes sense that decision rate is up
Better trained fighters with better defense means less finishes.
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former - Albert Einstein"
- Goonisis
Another angle re decision rate
The rise in decisions coincided with the reinstatement of the lightweight division in 2006, and it’s very common for lightweight battles to go the distance.
The Dos Equis guy wishes he was Brock Lesnar.
by SSreporters on Jul 20, 2010 1:32 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Interesting point
It seems to check out, and I do think the lighter the weight class, the higher the likelihood is for a decision outcome
Supporting all Las Vegas MMA. Xtreme Couture- "The Best Never Rest!"
"I swear it upon Zeus an outstanding runner cannot be the equal of an average wrestler."
-Socrates
by ElliotMatheny on Jul 20, 2010 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions
A breakdown by weight division would be nice.
by HarmlessNinja on Jul 20, 2010 3:23 AM EDT up reply actions
True
I think it’s just empirical knowledge that leads us to believe that lighter weight classes have less finishes, and i’m sure it’s been done at some point.
Supporting all Las Vegas MMA. Xtreme Couture- "The Best Never Rest!"
"I swear it upon Zeus an outstanding runner cannot be the equal of an average wrestler."
-Socrates
by ElliotMatheny on Jul 20, 2010 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions
The sample sizes seem a bit small to draw many conclusions, but a couple things jumped out at me.
I noticed that the combined KO/TKO figure has hovered between 30-45% since 2003 which means roughly a third of the fights end due to strikes (and an occasional cut).
Almost no recent fights have ended in draws or no contests, which is more “viewer friendly” but perhaps less sporting given the nature of MMA. I can think of a few recent fights that could easily have been draws and others that could have been no contests.
The growing number of fights should also give an increasingly accurate/stable breakdown, tempered by the trend towards better submission defense and more decision wins based on positional control (in my opinion).
Rec'd
Really interesting post, and confirms what a lot of people here have anecdotally suggested — that decisions are on the rise in a pretty significant way.
I suspect we’ll continue to argue about why that’s the case, and whether it is a good thing or not, but it’s really valuable to have data to support the discussion, whichever side you’re on.
The most interesting thing about being MMA fans is that we essentially get to watch a young sport evolving before our eyes. It’ll be interesting to see how those numbers change as fighters and styles continue to adapt.
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For the ones who prefer visuals...
by DepthApproach on Jul 20, 2010 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Rec'd
Cause there's only one, and that's me
You understand? for all that fighting, you understand
That sucka think he good, that sucka think he can whoop me
And i know he can't whoop me, Ay boy, the n**** whole style is chump
by S.C. Michaelson on Jul 20, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn't it make more sense to combine TKO and KO?
If you're not watching Treme, you're a bad person.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Jul 21, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
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