Will the UFC Light Heavyweight Division Championship Shuffle Continue?
by Kid Nate on Jun 4, 2010 11:55 AM EDT
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It's been a long long time since the UFC had a dominant champion in their marquee 205lb division. More than three years to be exact, since Chuck Liddell's incredible seven fight run at the top was stopped by Quinton "Rampage" Jackson in May 2007. Since then Jackson (one two title fight wins and done), Forrest Griffin (one and done), Rashad Evans (one and done) and Lyoto Machida (one plus one controversial decision and done) have all won and lost the belt.
Now Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, the man who was anointed the future champion of the division back in 2005 after winning the PRIDE GP holds the belt. He's set to face Rashad Evans for his first title defense. While Shogun is a hugely dangerous and well rounded fighter, he's got one gap in his skill set: wrestling.
As BE commenter BigDNotDallas pointed out in the following comment, that might be bad for Shogun against Rasahd:
Top level MMA is all about match-ups and styles. Machida is a very bad match-up for Rashad because Machida is quicker, faster, a much more technical striker and has world-class takedown defense. His speed and movement allow him to dictate where the fight goes, but his takedown defense and clinch dominance are more a result of his sumo training (and his takedowns from the clinch use a mix of sumo and judo). Machida's skillset is one that Rashad is highly unlikely to overcome.
By the same token, Rua's skillset causes Machida problems. Rua has evolved since his PRIDE days, both in the prep / game-planning areas AND in his in-control striking. One could see glimpses of how Machida could potentially defeat Rua in the 2nd fight - using the clinch and takedowns. Machida's problem on the ground is that he lacks the wrestling ability need to impose top-control against someone who's BJJ cancels out his own (and he lacks the physical strength to control simply by overpowering Rua).
Much like Machida is for Evans, and Rua is for Machida, Evans is a bad match-up for Rua. On the feet, the quicker, more technical Rua would win rather easily. But as the GIF sequences show, Evans' functional (MMA-centric) wrestling has improved greatly over what he has shown before. And for all of his strengths, Rua has shown to be fairly easy to take down, perhaps due to over-confidence in his BJJ (or just a lack of wrestling).
Only a very high-level functional wrestler with pretty good sub defense is likely to be able to both keep him there and avoid being submitted. Previously I thought Rashad's functional wrestling was not quite at that level, but after this fight I am not so sure about that. His BBs in BJJ should give him sufficient sub defense, although I have not personally seen much of that yet. Rua does also have good sweeps, and the biggest weakness in Rashad's wrestling imo is his base when he is in top control.
And if Rashad beats Shogun and Machida beats Rampage in their expected bout, that could put Lyoto Machida in a compelling position to demand a rematch with Rashad for the title. Rock. Paper. Scissors.
For those who are skeptical of Evans' chances against Shogun, take a second look at King Mo vs Gegard Mousasi. While Mousasi certainly isn't quite at Shogun's level, his skill set is comparable. He's got good Muay Thai and is strong off his back. Shogun is likely quite a bit better at both aspects of the game, but I still expect Evans to be able to put Shogun on his back. Only time will tell if Mauricio "Shogun" Rua can fulfill the expectations he's been carrying for half a decade now and finally emerge as a dominant champion.
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4th and 5th rounds
People have been talking about Rashad’s last two performances where he would get rocked the the 3rd round and both times he didnt get finished.
From what I can remember Shogun brought the fight to Machida for the full 5 rounds at 104.
If this happens 3 times in a row it could be very interesting.
Still I am picking Shogun
http://www.upsidedowndog.co.cc
he also went into UFC 113
only a few weeks out of surgery for an appendix. If Machida had been able to drag it into the later rounds, I doubt Shogun would have done as well in the 2nd fight.
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The 5 round fight with Machida didn’t have much in the way of clinch work/wrestling. Rua has traditionally shown that the wrestling game tires him out. His 1st fight against Machida was more of a tactical muay thai/kickboxing match that he was able to work at his own pace. Machida never pushed him. If Rashad can press Rua up against the cage and work a grinding clinch game, I’m not confident that Rua will have the legs to get through a 4th and/or 5th round with Evans. As the author put it: rock, paper, scissors.
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
There was little to no wrestling in their first fight
We’ve seen twice in a row now how Rashad tires his opponent out and we saw Coleman do it to Shogun in their fight. Shogun is going to get tired out after 2 rounds of Rashad’s relentless pace and pressure from his wrestling and him mixing it up with strikes as well. I’m a Shogun fan but an I’m also the biggest Rashad fan there is and he is going to take back his belt.
"To me, MMA is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography and the dancers hit each other."
by Buster Bluth on Jun 4, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
That is overlooked in Evans’ grinding of T.Silva and Rampage. Neither was able to push beyond that brief resurgence in the third rounds because they were tired out at that point.
Exactly...Shogun will succum to the same fate
We saw him gas quickly under the pressure that Coleman put on him. Rashad has been training to improve his cardio by leaps and bounds so he can take guys down at will and tire them out a lot faster than he tires out. Can you imagine if Shogun looked like he did against Coleman facing Rashad? Rashad would pick him apart if he gases like that. I
"To me, MMA is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography and the dancers hit each other."
I think it’s been shown that Rua was not 100% during the early UFC fights and that a healthy Rua is a different beast. I think Rashad’s ability to drain oppoenents of energy is somewhat over stated. Rashad tends to slow the pace of fights down and he usually does this by non stop feints. This can give the impression that a fighter is gasing, but in reality it’s more that they are getting frozen and can get off.
Not to say that a grinding, heavy top control game wouldn’t be Evans’ best choice going into the fight (he needs to get this off the feet and testing Rua’s cardio seems smart). I’m just not conviced that it will be as effective as it seems to be on paper.
That's a fair assessment
I know Shogun didn’t look quite like himself in his fight against Coleman but he still gassed from grappling with Coleman nonetheless. I don’t think Rashad’s ability to drain his opponents energy is overstated. He’s done it to Silva, Rampage, and Bisping most recently and he has been able to conserve his own energy more and more the more he concentrates on his own cardio. It is the same method Tito used in his prime…be in better shape than ur opponent and exploit it. Rashad has undoubtedly gotten better at that. Needless to say…after watching Machida take Rua down twice with ease in their last fight…Rashad shouldn’t have as much trouble taking Shogun down as he did with Rampage. It’ll be interesting to see how they match up on the ground though with Shogun being a serious black belt and Rashad being a black belt newbie.
If Rashad can tire him out…it’ll be much easier for Rashad to compete in the stand up battle and I think he’s learned his lesson on letting his guard down after a couple of rounds of domination. Either way…this is a great match up and all the Rashad haters will be out in full force. I still think Rashad is going to cause Shogun too many problems.
"To me, MMA is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography and the dancers hit each other."
The Evans / Silva sight was very close.
The second round could have neen scored as a 10-10 round and Silva clealry won the third. Rashad was also gassed. Page didn’t put up as much of a fight as Silva and let Rashad rest, but Rashad has potential cardio issues of his own. When’s the last time you’ve seen him go past the 15 minute mark?
Rashad should be a good match up for Rua, but given how close the Evans / Silva fight was and that I have always thought of T Silva as a slightly lesser version of Rua, I don’t know.
He needs to finish fights
Evans can’t finish, this is a major problem in a 5 round fight against elite competition.
What I meant was that he won’t finish Shogun from top position when he gets it and it will be hard to keep Shogun there.
Who says he won't?
Having a crystal ball would be great for better purpose but you assume a lot about a fighter that has shown he’s still growing.
Why not examine the Rashad’s success from the top against Shogun after he’s actually had a chance to show what he can do against him.
It seems Rashad is reluctant to pass gaurd these days
Unless his opponents jumps into a silly position.
I wonder what a Rashad vs Bones matchup would look like a year from now.
"Justice is the whim of a judge, check his chest density
It leaves much room for error, and the rest left to destiny."
-Sage Francis
bones is a monster
but he’ll have to move up to heavyweight before too long.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
From the Jackson camp via my bjj teacher
Bones has been straight KILLING Rashad. This is basically Rashad’s last chance to pull the veteran card.
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by Matthew Roth on Jun 4, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Bones isn't all that tested and who cares what happens in training
Bones’ ego is going to cost him. He’s a great prospect but I think he’s starting to buy into his own hype like Rashad did when he fancied himself a KO artist and it cost him against Machida.
"To me, MMA is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography and the dancers hit each other."
by Buster Bluth on Jun 4, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
High quality training doesn’t mean winning in sparring. That’s actually a good way to not learn anything and stay stall out.
Exactly
It’s the guys that get beat up in training and sparring that often times learn more than the guys doing to the beating up. Training and sparring is a place to test out new techniques and try different things…it’s no gauge as to who the better fighter is necessarily.
"To me, MMA is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography and the dancers hit each other."
Everyone will look bad against Jones before too long. I want to see him fight a top guy after Vlad.
His frame along with his particular skills make him a nightmare matchup. He’s also got the perfect attitude, and great trainers.
Don't overlook Vlad
Although I think Bones will win, Vlad was once a world-class wrestler and should be able to negate the Jones takedown for at least a little while. Granted, I believe Bones will win, but I don’t believe that Vlad will be a cake walk. That said, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Jones is destroying Evans in camp. He’s a better version of Evans in every way except experience.
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
I like Jones, so I hope you’re right. However, Vlad has made many a hyped young dude look pretty ugly and average.
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
I can’t recall any young guy full of hype who he’s derailed. Certainly nobody like Jones.
Vlad’s big chance came 9 years ago against Tito. And he got outwrestled then by a guy who loves to clinch. It will be much worse when he faced Jon Jones 9 years later.
I can’t recall any young guy full of hype who he’s derailed.
He just derailed them so early and so completely that you don’t remember.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
Completely agree. Not saying anything bad about Vlad but I think its more a reflection of how good Jones is already.
by xbuckeyex05 on Jun 4, 2010 3:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thing is, Vlad’s wrestling aside, he has notoriously had trouble with longer opponents who can keep him at a distance. Jones’ striking AND greco game both function at a distance greater than Vlad’s single/double/body lock takedowns. Jones takes people down from distances and angles that most others don’t, part of what makes him so dangerous, and a major obstacle for Vlad.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Jun 4, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
True
But Vlad is also a difficult opponent to put away, and Jones has always looked winded whenever pushed past a round and a half. Again, I’m not saying that Vladdy will win, I just believe he will be a tougher opponent for Jones than anyone gives him credit for.
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
It would be Blacktacular.
"It's fourth and fifteen and you're looking at a full-court press." - Lt. Frank Drebin, Police Squad
Not only is he explosive
he is also so well spoken.
What do we know of Rashad's grappling defense?
I think that’s where Shogun will cause the biggest threat.
Shogun on his back
sweeps Rashad easily imo
"Justice is the whim of a judge, check his chest density
It leaves much room for error, and the rest left to destiny."
-Sage Francis
+1
fwiw – I’ve been thinking a bit about the Silva/Evans match – I dunno how Silva of his back rates against Rua in the same position, but Rua seems a better and more disciplined athlete generally.
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by some schmuck in texas on Jun 4, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Rashad also had to attempt 16 takedowns against Thiago...
and in the first round he needed 4 takedowns to run out the clock.
I think Shogun is bestter at sweeps and getting back to his feet. It should be interesting.
This fight is now at the top of my list for most anticipated.
He might sweep him easily early in the fight
But Shogun is going to gas when being put on his back over and over again.
"To me, MMA is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography and the dancers hit each other."
by Buster Bluth on Jun 4, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Watch his fight against Coleman.
"To me, MMA is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography and the dancers hit each other."
Oh
The fight where he came back after a 15 month lay off, because he had 2 knee injuries, that prohibited him in doing any real training for 12 months?
I stand corrected.
I'm not saying that wasn't a factor
I’m just going on what Shogun looked like the last time he faced a wrestler that grappled with him the whole time. I’m not saying that Shogun will look exactly the same but based on the most recent historical data…he gassed against a wrestler. Will that happen again…who really knows.
"To me, MMA is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography and the dancers hit each other."
Wrestler or not, there was a lot of grappling in the fight with Little Nog
and Shogun wasn’t dead. I am sure he will also push his cardio in training. His new dedication to strategy will leave him prepared for 2 rounds of cuddles…
If he sweeps him and ends up on top...
It may be lights out for rashad quickly…
I think Rashad will have a very hard time lasting 25 minutes without shogun landing anything. Shogun can throw a punch better than Rashad can take one.
Agreed
Sometimes one fighters got another fighters number. Couldn’t agree more. A more cautious Evans with more wrestling is the successful fighter.
Only a small edit
Rampage did defend the belt. His fight with Dan Henderson was a title fight. Besides that the article is very well written. The UFC is really in a no-win with it’s champions. You have on one end of the spectrum Anderson Silva and GSP who are so dominant that people are getting bored watching them because no one in their divisions can honestly win the title fight. On the other end you have the LHW division where it changes so much that people think there isn’t a dominant champ. I’m okay with the LHW belt because due to the constant flux, you always have interesting matchups. You don’t get that in MW/WW.
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Everyone forgets the fight no worries
The main point is the no-win situation with dominant/fluctuating champs.
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by Matthew Roth on Jun 4, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
couldn’t this also be win-win, where fans who want dominant champs follow one weight class, fans who want parity follow another?
by PapaBumpants on Jun 4, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
It could, but there’s complaints about how no one is worthy to fight GSP/Anderson because they’ll dominate. When the UFC is selling Dan Hardy as a challenger, Joe Silva is grasping at straws.
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by Matthew Roth on Jun 4, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m sure there are complaints, but they’re mostly from the fighters themselves (or there managers) b/c their contracts are tied to PPV buys. There weren’t many complaints when Hughes was dominating the WW division and fighting guys beneath him. In fact, Penn probably didn’t deserve the title shot that he got. I don’t need intriguing matchups, I just want to see the champs fight the number 1 contender, whether they have already beaten them or not.
Maybe I’m in the minority tho.
by PapaBumpants on Jun 4, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
GSP is still a huge draw, and Anderson isn’t one for other reasons. I wouldn’t define that as a no one because they’re too dominant. In fact GSP fights are a huge benefit to the UFC.
Use the preview button.
Editing allows the trolls to post, then after the immediate responses, edit their posts to appear benign.
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Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Jun 4, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
That fight was free!
"It's fourth and fifteen and you're looking at a full-court press." - Lt. Frank Drebin, Police Squad
It won't be Champion Roulette much longer
When Jones ascends to the throne at Light Heavy, he will be there to stay… until he moves to Heavy.
"Daydreams of a 'fair' world which would treat him according to his 'real worth' are the refuge of all those plagued by a lack of self-knowledge." -- Ludwig von Mises.
I dont think
that Shogun’s striking is more technical than Mousasi. I’m very sure Shogun hits harder, but not more technical. I also do not think Shogun is faster than Rashad even on his feet, though Shogun will light Rashad if it stays on the feet too long.
I'd say you're right but Shogun has better kicks than Mousasi
Also Rashad can win this fight as long as he fights it safe
Ride the Tiger!
by doonerthesooner on Jun 4, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
I think shogun’s kicks are alot better than Mousasi from a muay thai and power standpoint. Also because Mousasi doesn’t throw many kicks, though he does have a head kick knockout. I believe Rashad will only win if he is able to grab him and take him down and hold him there. If Shogun is able to get back to his feet, Rashad will have to just keep clinching him and taking him down or holding him against the fence for 5 rounds. I am not sure if he will be able to do that for that long.
agreed
If I were Rashad I would work some serious ground and pound on Shogun every time I got the chance because he is not gonna be able to keep him down for long, so he better make those shots on the ground look good in the judges eyes. Just rinse and repeat for 3 rounds then wall and stall the last two
Ride the Tiger!
by doonerthesooner on Jun 4, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't Rashad have a head-kick KO too?
Dude. It's Anderson Silva.
If he gives a damn he will end Sonnen’s night by either sub or KO.
-SSreporters
By Monday morning Chael Sonnen will be pissing out of his neck.
-Also SSreporters
Just one. Sean Salmon.
"It's fourth and fifteen and you're looking at a full-court press." - Lt. Frank Drebin, Police Squad
See Shogun vs. Arona
Shogun already fought a better wrestler and tooled him.
Different wrestling though
Arona isn’t a power double wrestler. There were also stomps and soccer kicks. Different rules = different fight.
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by Matthew Roth on Jun 4, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of Arona, I wonder who he will get matched up with in his UFC debut
"I fight because I can’t sing, I can’t dance, and it beats working all day. Now ask me a question that doesn’t sound so xxxxxxx stupid." – Phil Baroni
by keyboardwarrior on Jun 4, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
i don't expect to see him in the ufc
i don’t care how much smoke dana blew up his ass
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These reports have been ongoing, it isn’t just what was said in the last week. After his fight with Eastman, there were numerous reports that he was headed to UFC after his knee recovered from surgery and he had rehabbed. I think it makes sense, bring in a name hardcore fans know, that has shown to be good in the past if for no other reason than keeping him from going to Strikeforce before proving he isn’t that good anymore.
"I fight because I can’t sing, I can’t dance, and it beats working all day. Now ask me a question that doesn’t sound so xxxxxxx stupid." – Phil Baroni
by keyboardwarrior on Jun 4, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
that's the only reason
and it’s the only reason Trigg, Baroni, Vladdy, and many others got a 2nd chance in the UFC.
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And that is exactly why I think he will. It fits in with the method of operation Dana has been employing to stifle Strikeforce’s attempt to gain more credibility.
"I fight because I can’t sing, I can’t dance, and it beats working all day. Now ask me a question that doesn’t sound so xxxxxxx stupid." – Phil Baroni
by keyboardwarrior on Jun 4, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Getting Shogun down isn’t the issue. Holding him there is. Arona has better top control than Rashad ever had.
That’s true, but getting taken down via double leg isn’t the same as getting taken down with a high crotch single. Doubles take a lot outta you. If Rashad can do the Wall n Stall/Double game he did with Rampage for 3 rounds, he wins against Rua.
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by Matthew Roth on Jun 4, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, 5 rounds, 3 wallnstall and Rua’s not doing those crazy jump kicks he does.
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by Matthew Roth on Jun 4, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
3 wallnstalls and Rua will barely be able to walk during the 4th and 5th. People so easily seem to forget the coleman match. rua was not undertrained for that, he just doesn’t have wrestling cardio.
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
Arona isn't a better wrestler
and that fight was in a ring and allowed soccer kicks.
VERY different and not really a valid comparison.
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Not valid?
The whole thing boils down to top control and the best top control guy in LHW MMA couldn’t keep Shogun down. Arona was able to LnP his way through ADCC for chrisakes.
Maurice Smith created the blueprint on how to beat the dominant wrestler… Better Cardio. survive until they get tired then knock them the fuck out.
This whole wall and stall and lay and pray doesnt work in a 5 round fight unless you’ve got unbelievable cardio like GSP and Cain. Rashad will be able to take shogun down – sure, but after trying to keep him there for about 2 rounds he’s toast. He got dropped in the 3rd round in his last 2 fights trying to be GSP. With Shoguns pace he’s gonna get mauled
Shogun will defend the belt more than anyone not named Chuck.
Cept every time you get up from the mat after being taken down, especially with power doubles, your cardio gets zapped too.
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by Matthew Roth on Jun 4, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Better Cardio. survive until they get tired then knock them the fuck out.
Have we seen anything from Shogun to suggest that he’s got better cardio than Rashad?
5 rounds with Machida does not equal 5 rounds of TD defense from Rashad.
He got dropped in the 3rd round in his last 2 fights trying to be GSP.
His last fight he got sloppy, not tired, he then proceeded to continue to take Rampage down at will after trying to KO himself on Rampage’s knee. cardio was no issue at all in the fight against Rampage.
Rashad got dropped by being Rashad. If he were being like GSP, he’d not lose focus or get sloppy, and have better technical striking.
Because GSP has never been careless and/or sloppy. I agree that GSP has better technical striking, but it’s only during the past 2-3 fights that GSP has shown the kind of discipline you seem to be referring to, and this against lesser competition than what Rashad has faced.
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
I respectfully disagree with both of you. Penn at WW is not nearly the same fighter as Penn at LW as his fight history will attest. Alves is a fierce striker but is nowhere near the level of Rampage in regards to his record and who he has beaten. Also, Dan Hardy is a guy that was taken to the limit by Marcus Davis and Akihiro Gono. Thiago Silva’s TKO wins over Drwal, Alexander, and Jardine are at least as impressive.
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
Penn at WW did beat one of the most dominant fighters ever in Hughes
And yes Hardy is waaay over rated,
Ride the Tiger!
by doonerthesooner on Jun 4, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I would disagree that Hardy was "taken to the limit" by either Gono or Davis
He easily outpointed Gono and his win over Davis should never have been a split – whichever judge gave Marcus the fight was absolutely tripping
www.twitter.com/mmanalysis
I had Davis winning the fight.
Matty, I guess I was one of the trippy ones and had Davis winning. Davis controlled the fight, he just looked a mess whereas Hardy has a leather face.
Hardcharger, before the loss to Evans, Rampage was only a single fight removed from a split decision loss to Griffin (a decision that many, including myself, disagree with) from winning 3 UFC title fights in a row against top 3 competition. Rampage himself was ranked #1 for a while. Comparing Alves, who has never won a title, to Rampage and arguing that ALVES is better is absolutely ridiculous.
As for your response regarding Drwal and Alexander, historical context is important. Drwal was a 17-1 fighter when he fought Thiago Silva and was expected to be a force in the UFC. As it stands, Drwal is 3-2 in the UFC, hardly a record that is any worse than Gono’s (who is 3-3 in his last 6 fights, the 3 wins against cans in Japan, none of those wins actually in the UFC.) This coming from a huge Gono fan. As for Alexander, he was 8-1 and had just come off of 2 huge KO victories against Jardine and Sakara when he fought Silva. My point is that Thiago Silva’s victories over Alexander and Drwal were considered big wins at the time, as were Hardy’s over Gono and Davis. None of those victories seem all that impressive now, for obvious reasons. Simply taking my point out of context doesn’t really help your agument.
Finally, we don’t know how great BJ Penn is at WW. Hughes has stated many times that he wasn’t really that prepared for the Penn fight because he underestimated him. He didn’t make that mistake again and although put into a bad position, ended up beating BJ. We don’t actually know how BJ would do these days against any of the top WW fighters because he’s not fighting them. He’s trying to win back the title he just lost at LW. I’m a huge BJ Penn fan, but these are the facts.
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
My point was that Rashad wasn’t tired in his last fight, a lot of people attributed his danger in the 3rd round against Rampage to being gassed, which clearly was not the case.
I would put Rashad against Shogun in a vs cardio fight.
I really think Rashad has a good chance of grinding out a win against Shogun if he plays it smart and sticks to his bread and butter.
Coulda fooled me given how crappy he looked with Coleman and Forrest. You know, the last two guys that tried to take him down.
by VirtualBalboa on Jun 4, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
but does Dana know you're saying good things
about Maurice Smith? Isn’t he among the fighters who never happened?
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by Kid Nate on Jun 4, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Coleman fight is so easily forgotten
Rua was injured during that fight, I’ll give you that, but since when have we ever had the opportunity to see Rua as a cardio machine? He’s traditionally been known to have terrible wrestling cardio and was given a borderline gift decision against a Lil Nog that repeatedly put him on his back. Evans does tire himself out, but the clinch/wall and stall/take down game of Evans is going to sap the hell out of Shogun. I still believe that Rua will find a way to win, but given how deep the 205 lb. division is, I’m not so sure that Rua has more than a defense or two in him.
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
I actually think Randy is a horrible stylistic match-up for Shogun. Couture has clinch cardio for days and will tie up and take down Rua at will. I would worry about his chin and dexterity at his age, but I would not be shocked in the least if Couture were to defeat Rua and become a 12 time UFC champion (I’ve lost count).
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
Randy Couture had a tough time with Brandon Vera. In all honesty, I thought Vera won the fight, but his reluctance to really move forward and attack that fight cost him the win. Shogun would just go 30x harder than Vera and I honestly think would ko Couture as he came in. Couture is 46, and the reason why he looked impressive in his last fight was because kick boxed with Mark Coleman who makes 300lb Tim Sylvia look blazingly fast. If Couture tied up with Rua, yes he would win, but I just don’t see that happening at the age of 46.
If Couture did win the fight though, he would be the greatest MMA fighter ever, it would be amazing.
Vera was once an olympic level Greco Roman Wrestler...
Of course Randy had a time time taking him down and working him. Rua, on the other hand, is well-known for having almost no takedown defense to speak of. Couture lives for clinching from the cage, taking his opponent down, and grinding him away. He couldn’t work that game plan against Vera (who I agree won the fight) because, again, Vera was once an olympic level greco roman wrestler.
I never once brought up the pointless Couture-Coleman fight because we all knew that Couture would blow him away. In fact, if anything, that fight is even more of an indication that Couture would have a better than decent shot of beating Rua, as Coleman nearly worked Shogun with a heavy wrestling game.
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
Shogun repeatedly put Lil’ Nog on his back, not visa-versa. I also think cardio will be very important for Shogun against Evans. I like Evans at +190. I like Shogun to win the fight, though, cuz he’s my #1 homie.
Behave with confidence
by Postpubescent on Jun 4, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Rua wins until Anderson steps up or Jones fulfills his potential.
by mmalogic on Jun 4, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Agreed.
And then the Anderson / Jones fight ends time and erases all recorded history. Aliens will wonder what the fuck happened to the human civilization when they discover Earth.
Dude. It's Anderson Silva.
If he gives a damn he will end Sonnen’s night by either sub or KO.
-SSreporters
By Monday morning Chael Sonnen will be pissing out of his neck.
-Also SSreporters
It’s not a question of just taking him down. If Rashad uses wall n’ stall, as opposed to lay n’ pray, it could be a bad night for Shogun.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito Ortiz on Vitor Belfort at Affliction:DOR
Exactly
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
I don't agree
I’m sorry but I don’t agree with Kid Nate.I don’t see Rashad dethroning Rua.I think the long layoff hurt Rampage and thats the only reason Rashad got past him.I do agree that Machida has Rashad’s number just like Rua has machidas, Tito has Frank Shamrocks and chuck liddell has Titos.I think Rua stays champ for at least 3 or 4 fights.
I say at least 2
Rua will probably beat rashad, and then for some reason he’ll fight Couture. Who he fights after that will determine if he will keep the belt.
Frank Shamrock
beat Tito the only time they fought.
you’re thinking of Ken.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
What does the statement that Machida has world-class takedown defense mean exactly? And when has he proven it?
http://www.fightmetric.com/fighterreports/Machida.html
He’s defended something like 83% of takedown attempts in his career.
That doesn’t answer my question though.
How is his takedown defense world-class, and how has he demonstrated it? He hasn’t fought particularly good takedown artists. One of the subjects of this article, Rashad, did not even attempt a takedown to prove/disprove that point.
It doesn’t even have to be in MMA. How did anyone come to the conclusion that Lyoto’s takedown defense is the elite of the elite? By tossing around a semi-functional Tito Ortiz?
Tito Ortiz
Please don’t get on the Tito Ortiz excuse bandwagon.
I know there aren’t many of them but Tito fans call him a great wrestler when he wins and a broken shell of a fighter when he loses.
For the record, Tito claims the injuries have been with him for years through wins and losses.
Tito’s last official victory was in 2006. He fought Machida in 2008. You don’t think his condition could have worsened in that time? In the past few years, he has had major back and neck surgeries.
You would prefer to pretend that he has had these injuries for his entire career or at least his entire UFC career. Versus the sensible opinion which is that they are somewhat recent and/or the culmination of pushing through many nagging injuries.
Even supposing Ortiz was healthy, it still doesn’t prove anything about Machida’s TDD being world class because Ortiz is not a particularly dynamic wrestler.
This article is spot on. Hasn’t Shogun had problems with wrestlers in his past? Look at what Mark Coleman did to Shogun!
"If your going to come on then come on!" - Harold Howard
this is perfect counter to logic
Shogun wilted when Coleman made him wrestle for 2 rounds.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
I think...
BigDNotDallas brings up some interesting points. There are so many aspects and disciplines that go into MMA that it’s very difficult for there to be a long-reigning, dominant champ at the top levels. As I say that, you have guys like GSP and Anderson Silva, but they’re the exceptions instead of the rules and neither are infallible in terms of MMA. It’s really as much about minimizing weaknesses as it is about imposing one’s mastery of a certain style or styles.
mousasi is still very young
he’ll likely keep getting better.
the way mma fans jump on and off hype trains just kills me.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
theres no hype train jumping. that was just a bad comparison.
by Bio on Jun 4, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
He'd better learn to defend takedowns
or he’s never going to be Strikeforce champ with King Mo holding the strap.
When you watch the Orioles every night, a beer after dinner turns into a six pack WAY too many times. Stacey
If Rashad stays with the game plan, we will see a new champion at 205, but only IF. If Shogun can tag him early as he did with Machida, then we may see a long run from Shogun, until Jones is ready for his title shot.
I told you not to f*ck with me.
I think one of the big "x factors" of this match up...
is Shogun’s ability to finish. Not alot of guys, let alone at 205, can smell blood in the water and go after it like Shogun. I have a feeling that if Rashad has a lapse like he has in this last fight, or the T. Silva fight, that Shogun would have been able to capitalize unlike the other two.
Dude. It's Anderson Silva.
If he gives a damn he will end Sonnen’s night by either sub or KO.
-SSreporters
By Monday morning Chael Sonnen will be pissing out of his neck.
-Also SSreporters
Shogun spent a few years working with Nino Schembri at Chute Boxe and developed a killer omoplata. He’s also got good leg locks and has a good half guard. It’s going to be very hard for Rashad to keep him on his back.
Shogun’s clinch game is also very effective, so Rashad is going to have to be very careful when he tries pushing him up against the fence.
It will be interesting to see what type of gameplan Jackson and his crew come up with for this one.
Shogun vs. Wrestlers
I thot he showed great sweeps and a solid leg lock on Randleman. It wasn’t that long ago that he fought Randleman while Randleman was actually considered top level.
That has to be one of the sickest knee bars I think I will ever see.
by hobbyist45 on Jun 4, 2010 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
RAMPAGE will Knock Machida out THEN....
KNOCK shogun out, and hold the title for like 2 years
You dont have to like me.. but you WILL respect my opinion! Jon Jones Cannot be Stopped! and neither can Anderson SIlva! Cain or Dos Santos??
This would be the same Rampage who Rashad proved has no TD defense, has no striking apart from that one uppercut he keeps trying to hit everyone with and who got rocked with basically the first thing Suga hit him with?
Dream on, champ, dream on.
by Monday Morning Martial Artist on Jun 4, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
No TD defense
didn’t Rashad only get like 3 takedowns that entire fight?
Training BE since January 2010
Didn't guys like you leave already?
Dude. It's Anderson Silva.
If he gives a damn he will end Sonnen’s night by either sub or KO.
-SSreporters
By Monday morning Chael Sonnen will be pissing out of his neck.
-Also SSreporters
The problem for Rashad is that this fight is 25 minutes. That’s 1500 seconds for Shogun to knock his ass out or submit him. Shogun has a ton of ways to win this fight whereas Rashad has only two (GnP & Decision). People might think Shogun will stop using kicks in order to prevent takedowns but that’s exactly why he’ll use his kicks more against Rashad. He’ll weaken Rashad’s front legs and cause Rashad to just stand in front of him for the duration of the fight. Shogun can also push a pretty mean pace and Rashad has shown to only be comfortable if he’s the one dictating tempo. If soccer kicks were legal, and obviously they’re not, I’d take Shogun by first round destruction. As it is, I’ll take Shogun by third round (technical) knockout. Don’t be shocked if Shogun also goes for a rolling kneebar in this fight, either.
Twitter: @FlyByKnite
IMO
a physical wrestler can cause Shogun some problems. I can see Shogun tire in the championship rounds after getting taken down several times.
The only guy that can stay on top at 205
Is Anderson Silva, IMO
Saturday, Donny, is Shabbos, the Jewish day of rest. That means that I don't work, I don't get in a car, I don't f@#king ride in a car, I don't pick up the phone, I don't turn on the oven, and I sure as s*@it don't f#$kng roll! Shomer shabbos!
by timthemit53 on Jun 4, 2010 1:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Anderson Silva is the only one I can see defending the belt multiple times
And the Big Lebowski is the greatest movie of all time
Ride the Tiger!
by doonerthesooner on Jun 4, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s been a long long time since the UFC had a dominant champion in their marquee 205lb division. More than three years to be exact, since Chuck Liddell’s incredible seven fight run at the top was stopped by Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in May 2007.
uh, Chuck won the title and was able to defend it four times before losing to Rampage. or am I missing something?
"They lie about marijuana. Tell you pot-smoking makes you unmotivated. Lie! When you're high, you can do everything you normally do, just as well. You just realize that it's not worth the fucking effort. There is a difference."
Rua in 3
I agree with the premise that Rua’s greatest weakness is his takedown defense. However, I think an often overlooked strength is his strategic mindset. He was able to pick apart Machida in both the first and second fights and expose weaknesses. Where he was most strong was in execution of those weaknesses with complete confidence. Rashad has several, primarily in his striking technique. He only gets away with that because of his athleticism. When Evans accomplished that awesome takedown against Rampage, there is a brief moment where his defense is exposed. Rampage being a one-dimensional fighter could not counter that move. Rua on the other hand has world class Muy Thai. If Evans exposes his chin at all, it will end the same as the Machida fight. Stone cold knocked out. I say Rua will win by a flying knee.
Simple question, I should really know this. Are soccer kicks to the body of a downed opponent legal?
As a PRIDE fanboy I would say
NO NO NO NEVER SHOGUN WILL BE CHAMP FOREVER
As a regular fan I think he will defend it once against Evans then lose it to the next challenger in line.
Shogun’s era will last shorter than Machida’s, Evans is a horrible match up for him but I see Evans second run lasting a couple of defenses. To me he has finally found who he is and what makes him so good, by mixing his strikes with his wrestling he has the blueprint to give alot of LHW’s tough times. If he can continue to work on his cardio and gnp Rashad is only touching the surface of how good he can be imo.
Rashad is going to beat Shogun.
Rashad has two distinct advantages: Wrestling and conditioning. I have no doubt he will be able to impose his game on Shogun for the first two rounds. After that, it’s a big question mark. Cause Rashad can get sloppy and get tagged like he did his last two fights, and if Shogun gets on top, he can be really scary – but a tired Shogun is a different story. We’ve seen what a tired Shogun looks like and it ain’t pretty. Sure he went the distance with Machida and looked great doing it in their first match, but fighting a technical striking bout is different than having a 200 lb man lean on you and grind you against the cage for five rounds.
While I am picking Evans to win, I will still root for Shogun. I love that picture of him with his hands raised. He looks so happy, like a kid in a candy store.
Machida lacks strength?
That article notes Machida lacks physical strength – I think he is one of the strongest lhw’s. He did very well against Tito, who is one of the strongest lhw’s ever. He dominates with strength in the clinch, and he was able to hold down and over power other strong guys like Sokodjou. There are other holes in this article.
he just looks like he lacks strength
honestly machidas build is not all that impressive if u see a guy with zero muscle definition its very easy to say he lacks strength
We have a saying back home that if your coming on, COME ON!!!!
Where do you get this? Machida lacks strength? The same guy that picked up Tito Ortiz and threw him into the ground when he had the flu? What he lacks is knockout power, but don’t mix that up with strength (knocking down Thiago Silva is not very hard and as we have seen from his past 2 fights, Rashad Evan’s chin isn’t exactly granite). Sean Sherk is probably one of the strongest lightweights, yet he doesnt have much knockout power.
Rashad's problem
Is that he can’t finish on the ground, or even stay active. Hence his near-knockout against an (arguably) out of shape Rampage. Rua doesn’t need to avoid the takedown, he just needs to connect during one of the many stand-ups that will inevitably happen during a five-round fight (including at the beginning of each round). Surviving on the ground will be a cinch. And, as we all know, finishing Rashad isn’t all that difficult.
Remember that fight, the one where Rashad won the title...
by knocking Forrest out on the ground. Awesome….
Dude. It's Anderson Silva.
If he gives a damn he will end Sonnen’s night by either sub or KO.
-SSreporters
By Monday morning Chael Sonnen will be pissing out of his neck.
-Also SSreporters
Hey wasn't there a fight where he also knocked out Jason Lambert?
Oh yeah, that happened with ground n pound as well.
Follow me on twitter @thisredengine
Also please check out SBnation's Red Bulls blog @ www.onceametro.com
Look at Shogun's face in this picture
He is not going to relinquish the belt easily, and I’m sure him and his camp are thinking the exact same things we all are about the problems posed by Rashad’s wrestling. Unlike Rampage, we can be certain Shogun is walking into this fight at 100%, both in his conditioning and his tactical plan for the fight.
Rashad will take Shogun down, probably multiple times, but I’m guessing shogun catches him with a more unorthodox sub at some point. I’m betting on a leg-lock of some type, or an omoplata.
He'll win with this
"The mat is my church, the ground is my heaven, Jiu-Jitsu is my religion. And once you hit the ground you're in my world..."
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