Break it Down: Shane Carwin

6'1", cuts to make 265, less than 10% body fat. A hulk of a man. On Saturday July 3rd at UFC 116, the undefeated Shane Carwin (12-0) has him facing his biggest test ever in UFC Heavyweight Champion, Brock Lesnar. Will he be able to nullify Brock's strength and wrestling and use his power to win the title?

Striking:

Shane Carwin has power Shane Carwin hits like a Mack Truck. There is no denying Carwin's power. He has dropped Wellisch and Gonzaga all with one shot.  As with most heavyweight fighters, but especially with Shane Carwin, one punch can finish it. However, there are holes to his standup game.

• Stance - Carwin's stance is not good. For someone of his size, he sticks his front leg out a lot. If you watch the Mir fight, had Mir been of that mindset, he could've chopped at his front leg with kicks. You do that and you take away his biggest strength -- Power. For someone of his size, Carwin also hunches over too much to compensate for his guard (which I will discuss later). By doing this, he takes away some height and puts more weight on that front leg making it more susceptible to the leg kicks I mentioned earlier. I mentioned that Carwin hunches over to compensate for his guard. What I mean is, Carwin does not keep his chin tucked (rule number 1 in combat sports). He also doesn't keep his hands as high as they should be (rule number 2 in combat sports). Instead of correcting this "flaws", he overcompensates by hunching over. That also hurts him with technique.

• Head Movement - Carwin's head movement is essentially non-existent. There is no side-to-side movement; there is no front-to-back movement. One would think working with Rashad Evans (one of the best head movement guys in the sport); some head movement skills would rub off. That is doubly dangerous when you combine that with his subpar guard.
• Footwork - Carwin's footwork, at first glance, is slow and plodding. At least it was. Working with Greg Jackson, it seems as if that aspect of his game has gotten better. He's lighter on his feet than he was before and that will help him especially with the above deficits.
• Versatility - Carwin does not throw jabs. I've never seen him throw a jab, I don't even know if jabbing is in the man's repertoire. He opens combinations with straights or hooks. So far, it has proved effective. Against a man with a longer reach, that could catch up with him. Time will tell. Carwin does not throw body punches, elbows, knees, or kicks. This makes his standup predictable. This too could catch up with him in the long run.
• Technique - There's not much technique to analyze as much of what Carwin does isn't technical. His punches are primarily arm punches and he doesn't tuck his chin when he throws. It's gotten him in trouble in fights before and will continue to until he fixes it. The way that he throws combinations leaves him off-balance and susceptible to damage especially by a great counter-puncher.
• Chin - His chin, for now, is questionable at best. We've seen him eats two shots and they rocked them. He was able to recover and capitalize on an opening, but the possibility of it happening again is still there.

Ground Game:

• Wrestling - We've only seen his wrestling acumen a couple of times, both offensively and defensively. He has a Division II NCAA title in his back pocket. So he has the skills and the potential for great wrestling. We've seen him take down a fighter and use his wrestling in reverse to get off his back. It appears as if he only uses his wrestling out of desperation and not as a "go to".
• Submissions - We have not seen his submission offense or defense in the UFC. Based on his record, I would say it is decent. He has not been submitted and he does have a few submissions wins (albeit in subpar organizations), however all of them were by punches or guillotine, which is the strong man submission.
• Top Control - As stated before Carwin does not use his wrestling. The one time we did see him on top, he finished the fighter. In looking at his wrestling pedigree in addition to his strength, I would say his top control is great

Clinch Game:

• Carwin's has a good clinch game against the cage. His strength and wrestling give him an advantage against most fighters in this area. His ability to create concussive power in such short spaces makes him deadly. There are areas where he can step up his technique, but much like the other facets of his game, it has not cost him thus far.
  

Intangibles:

• Greg Jackson and the rest of the Winkeljohn/Jackson crew - If there's ever an All-Star training camp in MMA, it's these guys. GSP, Rashad Evans, Nate Marquardt and Greg Jackson, the Professor X of MMA. If you can't learn from these guys, you're in the wrong business. Carwin has access to some of the greatest minds in MMA. Thus far, his gameplans have worked.
  
• Experience - Carwin has a decent number of fights, but not a lot of cage time. There are situations he has not seen or experienced. He's fortunate not to have run into too many problems in the cage thus far. What will he do when he faces true adversity? We've seen him recover once, so we know he doesn't fold easily.
• Physical - Carwin is a 6'1", 275 lb machine, one of the strongest men in the division. His speed, however, leaves something to be desired. He's not quick around the cage nor is he the most agile, but he has adequate agility for a heavyweight. Carwin is out of his element when speed and movement are factors in a fight.
• Cardio - The BIG question. Does Shane Carwin have cardio? He's never gone past the first round. His muscle mass is astounding and we all know that with all that muscle comes a need for the heart to pump fresh oxygenated blood to keep them from building lactic acid. He does train up in the thin air of Colorado, so that can't do anything but help. However, we have seen him pretty winded after a 1st round fight. Adrenaline dump or cardio problems? We won't find out the answer to that until someone takes him out of the first round.

Carwin’s skills are obvious; strength, punching power, wrestling expertise. Nevertheless, Carwin’s weaknesses are evident as well; bad form, slow on the feet, possibly weak chin. He has been able to avoid exploitation of his weaknesses by a fighter thus far in all his fights. To beat Carwin, you’re more than likely have to take a punch. A big punch. You’re going to have to exploit those weaknesses and get him past the first two rounds where that unknown cardio comes into factor. That’s easier said than done. Shane Carwin is a threat to any fighter fighting at HW.

(Writer’s note: This is the first in a series of 5 articles I plan to write in the week leading up to the Brock Lesnar vs Shane Carwin fight at UFC 116, Saturday, July 3rd. Up tomorrow, my analysis of the champion, Brock Lesnar.)