The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale on Spike TV Predictions

The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale
June 19, 2010
The Palms
Las Vegas, Nevada

Maincard:
Mcgee_vs_mccray_medium
Court McGee vs. Kris McCray


Luke Thomas: I think this fight is going to be very, very close. If Court can use pushkicks and jabs to control the distance, McCray is in trouble. If Kris is able to put this fight along on the fence and work for takedowns, it's going to be a long night for McGee. I've seen all of Kris' pro fights and commentated three of them. He's historically been a stronger starter than a finisher, but I think the experience on the show taught him how to fight over the long haul. He's got a very tough fight on his hands, but he can do it. McCray by split decision.

Kid Nate: After actually watching this whole season I still can't explain to myself how Court McGee made the finals. Regardless of the outcome, neither man figures to be a factor in the UFC. McCray by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: This isn't the best TUF final bout ever.  McCray and McGee are both interesting personalities and seem like good guys.  I guess McCray takes this by his constant pressure fighting that he manages to continue with even when he's tired.  Kris McCray by decision.

Mike Fagan: Bloody Elbow represent. Kris McCray by decision.

Chris Nelson: If McCray comes in with a solid gameplan and puts the fight on McGee, I don't see this going the distance. Takedown, back mount, McCray via submission, round one.

Nick Thomas: On the show McCray would come out like a house on fire and then gas. But if McCray's conditioning is now solid... it's McCray by decision.

Leland Roling: Honestly, this is a toss-up in my mind. I don't see how either fighter made it to the finals. Both guys have glaring weaknesses, and both need to add some explosiveness and conditioning to their training regiment. I picked McGee in the preview, but... I'll go with Kris McCray via takedowns. Kris McCray via decision.

Jonathan Snowden:I will be shocked if Court McGee wins this. I will also be shocked if Kris McCray doesn't immediately cut to 170 pounds. McCray via decision.


Hamill_vs_jardine_medium
Matt Hamill vs. Keith Jardine


Luke Thomas: I think it's just a matter of time before Matt Hamill puts him down. Even if he doesn't stop him, he'll steal rounds. Jardine has length, but never throws tactically enough to keep opposition at bay. Hamill by TKO.

Kid Nate: One TUF veteran hanging on to his UFC jobs by the skin of his teeth meets another whose tendency to get injured and knack for losing all his big fights has him stalled out. I think Jardine is too much for Hamill. Too hard to take down and keep down and too awkward yet dangerous for Hamill to catch with his very raw power. Should be a lot of leg kicks in this one. Jardine by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Jardine will never go away, so he can't lose this fight.  On a serious note I just don't think that Hamill is the kind of fighter that puts together the pieces of a puzzle all that well.  When he is able to fight a standard guy he can close distance on and engage in a wrestling match he does well, but Jardine is not going to make it easy and his angles are going to bother Hamill for three rounds.  Keith Jardine by decision.

Mike Fagan: I don't think Hamill has the left hook that is Jardine's kryptonite. I expect something similar to Franklin/Hamill without the finish. Keith Jardine by decision.

Chris Nelson: Hamill may score some takedowns early, but Jardine will work to chop the wrestler's base out from under him and eventually take the wheel. Jardine via decision.

Nick Thomas: If at any point Hamill realizes he's not winning the stand-up he's takes this to the ground and grinds out the win. Hamill by decision.

Leland Roling: Since I'm not a huge fan of hearing Keith Jardine tell us constantly that we will see the new-and-improved version of him, I'll take Matt Hamill's wrestling and strength. Matt Hamill via TKO.

Jonathan Snowden: If Hamill is smart, he's been watching how Shane Carwin used a similar tool set to demolish Frank Mir. I think Hamill will end up being too strong for Jardine and send the world's most awkward fighter on to awkward fights for Scott Coker. Hamill by Knockout.


Leben_vs_simpson_medium
Chris Leben vs. Aaron Simpson


Luke Thomas: Leben looks great against Jay Silva, but Simpson's wrestling is infinitely better. I do think, though, that Leben can bomb on Simpson's chin. Simpson's over aggression gives me pause. I'll pick him here, but I think it's closer than advertized. Simpson by decision.

Kid Nate: Aaron Simpson is a league beyond Chris Leben. Simpson by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Chris Leben is a below average gatekeeper and Simpson is good enough to beat that exact kind of fighter.  Aaron Simpson by decision.

Mike Fagan: I don't know where Leben's at, but I don't think it matters. Aaron Simpson by decision.

Chris Nelson: Simpson should win a grinder here and hand Leben his third loss in four fights. Simpson via decision.

Nick Thomas: Simpson is a beast. He looked great against Lawlor. Simpson can take Leben down if the stand-up isn't going well. Simpson by decision.

Leland Roling: Leben could be a good test if he shows up mentally, but it's a huge question mark. Aaron Simpson will be ready to throw down, and his wrestling is good enough to control Leben from the top while punishing him. Aaron Simpson via decision.

Jonathan Snowden: Leben by KO.
Fisher_vs_siver_medium
Spencer Fisher vs. Dennis Siver


Luke Thomas: I love Spencer Fisher, but I do not think he can sprawl and brawl his way out of this fight. He can KO Siver early, but if that doesn't happen he's done. Siver by decision.

Kid Nate: This should be a fun stand up fight. I doubt Siver catches Fisher with any of his spinning kicks so I'll take Spencer Fisher by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Give me Fisher here.  Siver has sweet strikes and good KO power but I think Fisher is built more for a long go,go,go kind of striking war.  His chin will hold up to the few times it gets tested and he'll land more punches.  Spencer Fisher by decision.

Mike Fagan: Siver's impressed me in his last few fights, but I think Fisher can sprawl and brawl his way to victory. Spencer Fisher by decision.

Chris Nelson: Fisher out-works Siver. Fisher via decision.

Nick Thomas: On the feet, Siver takes this and will throw in a couple takedowns for good measure. Siver by decision.

Leland Roling: Siver has more power and deceptive submission ability. I think Siver will eat some solid straights from Fisher, but I like his power over Fisher's decision style of fighting. Dennis Siver by TKO.

Jonathan Snowden: This is the early favorite for fight of the night. I think Fisher will start fast and never slow down. Fisher by way of the decision.


Yager_vs_attonito_medium
Jamie Yager vs. Rich Attonito


Luke Thomas: I do think Attonito has the ability to take Yager down and if he does, he's got enough to at least do damage if not stop Yager altogether. There will be some distance closing issues, but not enough to stop the ATT product. Attonito by submission.

Kid Nate: *Changing this pic. Yager has already shown he's got a very limited amount of heart. Attonito has enough grit to make Yager fold. Attonito by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: It's been a constant chorus from "in the know" types over the past few months that on the ground Yager is just outclassed by almost everyone he fights.  He's got really fun striking but until he rounds it out I can't take him over a guy like Attonito who trains with guys who can do it all.  Rich Attonito by submission, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Looks like a showcase for Yager Bomb. Jamie Yager by TKO, round 1.

Chris Nelson: ATT? Oh, neato. (Sorry.) I see Attonito catching a few of Yager's flashy strikes, dragging him down and not relenting for 15 minutes. Attonito via decision.

Nick Thomas: Attonito will take Yager down and Yager out in the later rounds. Attonito by decision.

Leland Roling: It's a toss-up really. But I think Attonito can takedown Yager as he throws wild kicks and punches, and keep him there. Rich Attonito via decision.

Jonathan Snowden: When in doubt, go with camp pedigree. Attonito by decision.


Undercard:


John Gunderson vs. Mark Holst

Luke Thomas: Taylor I would've called over Gunderson. Holst, not so much. Gunderson by decision.

Kid Nate: Haven't been impressed with Gunderson but still not going to pick a late replacement to beat him. Gunderson by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Hoist has some real defensive liabilities and it's going to be a pretty easy fight for Gunderson.  John Gunderson by TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Hoist is a replacement for Paul Taylor and making his UFC debut. Hell, Mark Hoist by decision.

Chris Nelson: Holst via decision.

Nick Thomas: I have to pick my fellow Canadian here. Holst by decision.

Leland Roling: Gunderson has the same style against everyone, late replacement doesn't really affect his tired gameplan. Holst hasn't impressed me with his past performances. Wide open defense and Corey Hill about crushed him from top control. I'll take John Gunderson via decision.

Jonathan Snowden: I think being a late replacement will work out nicely for Hoist. He and Taylor are very different fighters and Gunderson may not be able to adjust. Hoist by decision.

Brad Tavares vs. Seth Baczynski

Luke Thomas: Tavares should smash him. Tavares by TKO.

Kid Nate: Tavares by vengeful beat down.

Brent Brookhouse: Brad Tavares will make a really solid addition to a Bellator tournament some day.  Seth Baczynski will make a really solid addition to a Bellator untellevised undercard some day.  Brad Tavares by TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: Tavares gets revenge for the PRIDE mugging. Brad Tavares by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Tavares was one of the standouts of the season to me. Don't think he's long for the UFC, but he should win this handily. Tavares via decision.

Nick Thomas: Tavares by decision.

Leland Roling: I had picked Baczynski, but I'm switching my stance after seeing most of Tavares' performances. I think he'll put it on the veteran here. Brad Tavares via TKO.

Jonathan Snowden:Tavares takes this in a battle of guys on their way to regional shows.

Kyle Noke vs. Josh Bryant

Luke Thomas: Noke's biggest problem? His wrestling. I think Bryant takes advantage. Bryant by decision.

Kid Nate: Noke by KO.

Brent Brookhouse: Noke is a really good fighter and anyone sleeping on him because of his work on TUF is going to be in for a nice surprise.  Kyle Noke by TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: Noke was a favorite to win the show for a reason. Kyle noke by TKO, round 1.

Chris Nelson: I think this turns into a competitive fight, but in the end it's Noke via decision.

Nick Thomas: Noke looked horrible in his last fight, but he's still a favorite here. If Noke keeps this on his feet, he wins this. Noke by decision.

Leland Roling: Noke gets Bryant down and gains position to start blasting. Noke via TKO.

Jonathan Snowden: Noke is probably the best fighter coming out of this season. His fight for the taking. Noke via KO.


James Hammortree vs. Chris Camozzi

Luke Thomas: Camazzi can survive long enough to use his superior stand-up late in the fight. Camozzi by TKO.

Kid Nate: Camozzi by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: I just can't bring myself to deeply care about this fight.  I guess Chris Camozzi by decision.

Mike Fagan: Hammortree blows. Chris Camozzi by decision.

Chris Nelson: Camozzi via decision.

Nick Thomas: Camozzi is back. Camozzi looked great on the show before he got injured. Going with Camozzi by decision.

Leland Roling: Camozzi via decision.

Jonathan Snowden: I like the guy who spends more time on Twitter. @chriscamozzi by decision.


James McSweeney vs. Travis Browne

Luke Thomas: I like McSweeney to grind him out, actually. McSweeney by decision.

Kid Nate: McSweeney by KO.

Brent Brookhouse: I assume McSweeney is being put waaaay down at the bottom of the card because the UFC has about as much faith in him as I do.  Travis Browne by TKO, round 3.

Mike Fagan: Kind of surprised to see McSweeney buried in the prelims. James McSweeney by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: I'd say this is a big step up in competition for Browne, but I've never really been sold on McSweeney, so it comes down to how Browne performs under the bright lights. The Nor-Calian has solid power and effective, if not pretty, takedowns. Browne via TKO, round one.

Nick Thomas: Browne will be the bigger fighter. I want to pick McSweeney based on UFC experience, but I think Browne will win this one. Browne by decision.

Leland Roling: Travis Browne. Ahh, the memories. I watched his knockout of Abe Wagner via a very terrible Internet stream, but boy was it glorious! Travis Browne via KO.

Jonathan Snowden: Browne knocked out football player Michael Westbrook in a KOTC showdown. That is enough to earn him my pick. Browne by Knockout.

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