UFC 113 Preview: Breaking Down the Chessmatch That Is Lyoto Machida vs Mauricio "Shogun" Rua 2
by Kid Nate on May 3, 2010 1:23 PM EDT
in MMA Technique
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Lyoto Machida represents that rarest of all MMA fighters -- a man whose style is both innovative and effective. Machida's Shotokan karate based style rewrites the rules of how to fight on your feet in an MMA bout. He stays outside striking range then lunges in with punches or lands with kicks using his foot rather than the shin as the deliverer of impact. He prefers to be a counter striker and searches for something he calls "kyo":
"In my karate, it's a time called the "kyo", which basically means when your opponent has no defense. I always make sure when I attack it's at the right kyo. I timed his properly."
The talk of a "Machida Era" in MMA after he took the title from Rashad Evans was largely premised on the notion that it would be very hard for MMA fighters trained in Muay Thai, boxing or even more common Karate styles like Kyokushin to figure him out. We did a great deal of analysis of Machida's style between UFC 98 and UFC 104. I recommend reading Lyoto Machida Is Not Necessarily MMA's Karate Bellwether, The Karate Wizardry of Lyoto Machida, The Karate Kuzushi Waza Foot Sweeps of Lyoto Machida, There Are No Shortcuts in Shotokan Karate and Lyoto Machida Uses Muay Thai and Jiu Jitsu to Beat David Heath to catch up with our discussions of what made Machida so unique and innovative in MMA. Also check out his book: Lyoto Machida's "Machida Karate-Do Mixed Martial Arts Techniques" and DVD set.
Shogun Rua surprised the world when he seemingly solved the Machida enigma in Machida's very first title defense. While he didn't take the judges decision, it was clear from the exhausted and battered face of the champ in the fourth and fifth rounds that for Shogun there was nothing ghost like about Machida. He was just another opponent to be kicked into submission.
Jake Rossen has a very interesting breakdown of Machida vs Shogun:
This is a crucial time for Machida, but not because of any statistics. In rematching Maurico Rua Saturday -- the man who came closest to figuring him out -- Machida can either prove his style can correct its mistakes or accept that he will not hold the advantage of surprise for much longer. The answer will define the second act of his career.
...
The question isn't if Machida's style will be countered; it's when, and how.In October, Rua had his math worked out pretty well. He discovered that Machida, so focused on parrying with his hands, can neglect to consider the premature aging effect of kicks to the lower body. And instead of backing away, allowing Machida to calculate a step-in attack, he stayed in Machida's face. It was a performance that impressed virtually everyone but the three judges ringside.
Before the fight we had grappled with the issue of whether or not Shogun could find an answer for Machida. Check out Can Mauricio "Shogun" Rua Thrive Without Soccer Kicks?, How Mauricio "Shogun" Rua Could Beat Lyoto Machida, and Can Mauricio Shogun Rua Compete With Lyoto Machida on the Feet?
But Shogun didn't listen to any of that advice and figured out a perfect route to victory over Machida -- except the judges didn't quite see it that way.
Here's Luke Thomas breaking down the fight at the time:
The fight's proposed clash of styles was at least visually apparent, but the real difference was damage. Shogun dismantled Machida with counter kicking to challenge the karateka's lunging chambered punches.The methodical body work was almost the opposite of head hunting. Shogun methodically took the spring out of Machida's step and spirit by grinding round kicks to the right lead leg and body.
Shogun also demonstrated success in closing the distance. He used takedown attempts both intended to initiate clinching or to rush Machida. And from afar Shogun performed ably as well. He continuously landed a thudding body kick on Machida's lunging crosses. That kick also found a home on Machida's front leg over and over again causing some of the most serious damage of the fight.
Machida was able to land straight punches throughout the fight, but not to any real damaging effect. Machida, however, was significantly slowed and made far more manageable in his movement and speed.
Damage aside, Shogun never lost his rhythm and classic style. Machida's attack appears substantially muted when he can't get opponents to lose their comfort zone.
Last week I broke down the three main parts of Shogun's dissection of Machida-do:
Shogun essentially took almost all of Machida's tools away by doing a few simple things:
- Constantly walking down Machida and cutting off the cage while maintaining a tight defensive posture with his hands up;
- Ignoring the movement of Machida's limbs and focusing entirely on his trunk;
- Refusing to strike first but immediately countering with kicks to the legs and body anytime Machida lunged in to strike.
And I've been pleased to see our BE readers doing some very nicely detailed analysis of the fight that takes a second look at what Machida was doing during the fight and bolsters the case of those (like all three judges of the first fight) who felt Machida won: TLow's Machida's Kicks and (Bad?) Corner Advice/Strategy and Adam Vance's Machida vs Shogun I Recap.
And thanks to themachiavellian for reminding me of this gem by gzl5000: Machida's Mistakes/Shogun's Successes.
Ultimately the winner of the rematch will be determined by two factors -- which fighter will make the right adjustments and which fighter is truly the better athlete. I can't wait.
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I think this was the best breakdown of their first fight I've seen:
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/10/26/1102295/machidas-mistakes-shoguns
If you're not watching Treme, you're a bad person.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on May 3, 2010 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
The great thing about this fight is that it’s truly a toss-up. It’s hard to predict who will win.
"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn
Agreed.
Are the betting lines out for this?
I think this is about right too. Machida will have somewhat of an advantage in that he has seen what Shogun brings to the table, and he will have an edge with oddsmakers in that he technically won the first fight. It should get pretty close to even in my mind.
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by Leland Roling on May 3, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I love this line. Had Shogun gotten the nod (a result with which about 80% of both experts and fans seems to agree), this line would be reversed or even, which is where it should be. The only reason I wouldn’t favor Shogun more heavily is that Machida is the better wrestler, and I think, if he’s going to change anything, it would be to incorporate some takedowns into his game plan. Shogun’s TD defense isn’t that good.
Lyoto would still be the favorite. He was a monster favorite going into the fight. A close decision loss would not make him the dog in the immediate rematch. The perfect example is the upcoming Penn-Edgar II. No way Penn is a dog in that fight. In fact I bet the odds mirror this fight.
How did I end up on this bandwagon and why does everything say property of Chael Sonnen?
In a perfect world this fight would be getting the type of attention and buzz of that fraud display between May/Mose on Sat.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
BTW
WAR SHOGUN!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on May 3, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed...
This is an awesome awesome fight that I am really looking forward to. (Plus there’s a kimbo fight, why aren’t regular people hyped up for this card?)
by Anton Tabuena on May 3, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t know, but to me this is what UFC is all about. Machida and Shogun are true Mixed Martial Artists at the highest level! I’m soooo pumped for this!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on May 3, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Shogun has no choice but to finish.
I think Shogun will stick to his original strategy, with some few tweaks. I think he’ll use the leg kicks for sure, but he’s going to have to take some chances. I know this leaves the door open for Machida to attack during the “kyo”, but I can’t see how Shogun can leave it to the judges this time. It’s clear the judges prefer Machida’s style, and he’s just going to beat him on points. As for Machida, he’s going to probably be more evasive, if that is even possible. At this point, both guys are pretty set in their ways, so you won’t see too much changing.
The X factor here is the clinch and the ground. I personally don’t see the fight hitting the ground much, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes place more in the clinch than last time. Either guy can conceivably win in the clinch.
The really cool thing about this fight, is that I have no idea how this will end. But if I were to guess, neither guy finishes each other, and you’ll see Machida’s hand raised.
I have to wonder about the potential of a ground battle as well. Both are accomplished BJJ black belts, so it is not like they are foreign to the ground. They are both strong in the clinch as well. I am a huge Machida fan, so I am going with him to win it. The big question is what adjustments both will make, if any.
Although...
A major difference being Shogun is proven on the ground, and to my knowledge, Machida is not.
by Body Triangle on May 3, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d give the edge to Shogun on the ground, but Machida has pretty good defense. Where Shogun can catch Machida, is the way Tito almost did. In the later rounds, if Machida is tired, he can get sloppy on the ground.
Agreed
Shogun’s strategy should be to kick the hell out of Machida’s legs and take him down in the championship rounds.Sub-city or TKO for shogun. That’s where my money is
by Body Triangle on May 3, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I wrote out a long comment awhile back regarding this,
It’s clear the judges prefer Machida’s style
I maintain that Shogun was robbed in the decision, not because I believe he won the fight, but because he was not given a fair chance to win. Cecil Peoples has a long history in karate and is in the karate hall of fame. To have him judging a fight with the poster boy for karate in MMA is simply inexcusable. There was no way that the fight was going to be judged fairly. In his post-fight writeup, People’s made it clear that he gave advantaged to the karate style.
Shogun was never given a fair chance to win on the scorecards, and it doesn’t matter if the other’s agreed with him. I don’t believe it was corruption that got Peoples seated at the table, but ineptitude. And it’s fucking ridiculous.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
by pdl on May 3, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Wow
Didn’t know that. Very interesting, and pretty messed up.
by Body Triangle on May 3, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
eh?
He had a Karate background therefore he shouldn’t judge this one? Most judges shouldn’t judge James Toney’s bout cause they have a boxing background too? Judges who have wrestling backgrounds shouldn’t judge Lesnar/PhilDavis/Munoz/whoever’s fights?
The better argument would be “he has fucked up several score cards in the past therefore he shouldn’t judge.”
by Anton Tabuena on May 3, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
That’s a different argument. Boxing has only one style- it would be more than appropriate to have boxing judges. When you have a judge who is biased for a certain style AND that style is not widespread in MMA, well that’s something to take into consideration. Not necessarily a big factor, but definitely something to ponder.
by Body Triangle on May 3, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry
boxing does not have only one style…but you know what i mean
by Body Triangle on May 3, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
It makes more sense when I did the full breakdown
complete with his quotes and sections of the Unified Rules. He was clearly biased and unapologetic about it.
He had a Karate background therefore he shouldn’t judge this one? Most judges shouldn’t judge James Toney’s bout cause they have a boxing background too? Judges who have wrestling backgrounds shouldn’t judge Lesnar/PhilDavis/Munoz/whoever’s fights?
The difference is that there are tons of boxers in the UFC. Every other fighter is a wrestler. Lyoto is THE karate fighter. He is the only guy to show that karate can be effective in MMA. His success would create a resurgence of interest in karate, a style which Peoples has a vested interest in both emotionally and monetarily. I don’t think the latter was a factor, but to argue that the former didn’t color his opinion is neglecting a MAJOR issue of conflict of interest.
The CSAC is pretty effing incompetent, and this is just another notch in their belt of stupidity.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
by pdl on May 3, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I can agree with the last bit for sure. Their reluctance to include even the most basic and obvious aid for judges: a video monitor, is just asinine.
they really should include video monitors,
as long as it isn’t like Rogan’s where there are replays shown…
by Anton Tabuena on May 3, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
this isn't eddie bravo judging Hardy's bouts.
Cause that would be a conflict of interest…. This one isn’t. They can’t just say, hey Cecil, you have a karate background therefore you shouldn’t judge Machida’s bout. That’s just not enough reason to bar him from that.
by Anton Tabuena on May 3, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Correct
Unless Peoples outright says he was biased for a style…wait…
by Body Triangle on May 3, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
In his post-fight writeup, People’s made it clear that he gave advantaged to the karate style.
I mean I can’t verify that, that’s just from pdl
by Body Triangle on May 3, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe it is.
We’re a bit off topic for this news item. I’ll put together a fanpost about it with more detail and we can talk it out there?
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
by pdl on May 3, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
sure.
but I’ll be heading to bed now, so I’ll read up on it at work. :)
It’s 1am here. haha.
by Anton Tabuena on May 3, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
not really,
I like pdl. I just don’t agree with this specific point….
oh and guys, is this the post fight Cecil statements you were talking about? cause this was fake.
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/10/26/1101573/quote-of-the-day-a-judges-defense
by Anton Tabuena on May 3, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe there was initial skepticism, but it was never found to be fake.
And I’ve heard athletic commissions chewed him out for it and warned judges about public statements regarding their decisions. Hence why Doug Crosby is pretty fucked after his UG tirades.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
by pdl on May 3, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
it is really fake.
It was from Cage Report … They notoriously fabricate quotes all the time.
Crosby’s situation is different and it was really him. Josh Gross even talked to him and he talked the same way. haha.
by Anton Tabuena on May 3, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Can you link me to confirmation?
I remember MMA Weekly picked it up and they tend to verify authenticity pretty thoroughly. I never saw a retraction from anywhere either. Not trying to be combative, just never seen anybody confirm that it was not legit and reliable sources picked it up.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
by pdl on May 3, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s a troll site. I think Brent(?) was able to find out who runs that site. (If I remember correctly)
by Anton Tabuena on May 3, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I have trouble seeing this fight on the ground as well
However I have this feeling that Shogun is going to incorporate take downs into his game plan. Machida is most dangerous when standing and countering, why not put him on his back for a while and ground and pound as much as you can? It will also help him on points if this goes the full 5 rounds.
Takedowns would be the obvious, to win on points. But Machida’s TD defense is pretty amazing. That’s why I think a lot of this fight may end up in the clinch, initiated by Shogun. Shogun proved in the first fight he wasn’t scared of stalking Machida. When others have done it, they paid dearly. And for the longest time, there were questions about Machida’s conditioning and how he could be exploited in the clinch. I think Machida is really strong there, but I wouldn’t put it past Shogun to wade fearlessly in and go for the clinch to knee Machida to death.
To add, knees in the clinch to the body or thighs, would similarly accomplish what the leg kicks did in the first match. I expect Machida to be expecting the leg kicks, so I think Shogun will go for the clinch. Just a thought.
Except in the first fight, Shogun was only able to land knees in the clinch when he had Machida pressed against the cage. When they clinched in the open ring, Machida blasted Shogun with knees; against the cage, he was vulnerable because he was also trying to defend the takedown.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on May 4, 2010 4:31 AM EDT up reply actions
OT
Is Spike airing the undercard?
"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn
Really hoping for Shogun and Rampage wins
That rematch would be sick. A Lyoto vs Rashad rematch, not so much. Rampage and Shogun are both so different that fight would be very intresting.
by JimJoe on May 3, 2010 1:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Yes please!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on May 3, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately I think you’re going to get your Shogun-Rampage match-up but it won’t be for the title.
Rampage is perfectly suited to beat up Rashad but cage rust is the most undervalued aspect in MMA handicapping and Rampage has magnified the rust by working as an actor and not training prior to getting back into camp for this fight. I just see Rashad’s hand speed and cardio advantage taking two out of three rounds for the decision.
Also Lyoto by TKO.
How did I end up on this bandwagon and why does everything say property of Chael Sonnen?
Shogun showed he can deal with Machida’s usual style, so I can’t imagine Machida wants to try and fight like that again. If he get’s aggressive though – and really, that’s the only way to try and keep Shogun at distance – Shogun is a good counter puncher who can do damage there. I’m thinking Machida is going to want to get the fight to the ground, but I think that’s a mistake. I think Shogun is going to put him to sleep.
Lyoto Machida
• 31 years old
• 6’1, 205 lbs
• 74-inch reach
• 16-0 professional record (8-0 UFC)
• 2-0 in championship fights
• 5-0 against current or former UFC champions and PRIDE Grand Prix winners (UD5 over Mauricio Rua on October 24, 2009; KO2 over Rashad Evans on May 23, 2009; UD3 over Tito Ortiz on May 24, 2008; UD3 over BJ Penn on March 26, 2005; and KO2 over Rich Franklin on December 31, 2003)
• Knockout of the Night in back-to-back fights (KO1 over Thiago Silva on January 31, 2009; and KO2 over Rashad Evans on May 23, 2009)
• Current layoff is 196 days (UD5 over Mauricio Rua on October 24, 2009)
• Longest UFC layoff is 252 days (UD3 over Tito Ortiz on May 24, 2008, until KO1 over Thiago Silva on January 31, 2009)
• Currently tied with Jon Fitch and Royce Gracie for 2nd all time with 8 consecutive wins inside the Octagon (Anderson Silva holds the record with 11)
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
• 28 years old
• 6’1, 205 lbs
• 76-inch reach
• 18-4 professional record (12-1 PRIDE, 2-2 UFC)
• 3-2 in last 5 fights
• 7-3 in last 10 fights
• 0-1 in championship fights (4-0 in Grand Prix fights)
• 4-3 against current or former UFC champions (UD5 loss to Lyoto Machida on October 24, 2009; KO1 over Chuck Liddell on April 18, 2009; TKO3 over Mark Coleman January 17, 2009; SUB3 loss to Forrest Griffin on September 22, 2007; SUB1 over Kevin Randleman on October 21, 2006; TKO1 loss to Mark Coleman February 26, 2006; and TKO1 over Quinton "Rampage" Jackson on April 23, 2005)
• Knockout of the Night (KO1 over Chuck Liddell on April 18, 2009)
• Fight of the Night (TKO3 over Mark Coleman on January 17, 2009)
• Current layoff is 196 days (UD5 loss to Lyoto Machida on October 24, 2009)
• Longest UFC or PRIDE layoff is 483 days (SUB3 loss to Forrest Griffin on September 22, 2007; until TKO3 over Mark Coleman on January 17, 2009)
I would miss the birth of my first born for this card. …OK maybe not, but I’d seriously consider it.
Definitely have it on in the waiting/delivery room.
How did I end up on this bandwagon and why does everything say property of Chael Sonnen?
You mean they're not ordering it at that family function?
Although it is way more expensive for a family function to order it than if you order it at home, you can just go to a different local family function where they’ll be showing it. Or you could convince this family function to order it but charge a cover
by Body Triangle on May 3, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I had to miss out on the Faber/Aldo card for a family thing. No way in hell I’m missing this one. I feel bad for you dude. If it makes you feel any better, the rest of us will be enjoying possibly the greatest rematch ever between two masters of their respective disciplines. haha. Okay, maybe that wouldn’t make you feel better.
Fake an illness
"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn
The Simpsons
“If you miss this, you’d better be DEAD or IN JAIL, and if you’re in jail, BREAK OUT!”
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on May 4, 2010 4:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m going to a baby-shower that ends early enough for me to catch all the action from the beginning. I feel for you.
"There's nothing cool about taking punishment" - Floyd Mayweather Jr.
by VeeisAnimated on May 6, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the first card in a long time that I've REALLY looked forward to
Just thinking about it makes me giddy. And, I might have to miss it, planning on going out of town this weekend.
God Damn it.
I will find some way to watch it. I have to. I’ll be visiting a friend on a military base, they might eb showing it there…
God I hope they are…
Please, please, MMA gods, let this fight NOT end in a controversial way.
Honestly, I’d be happy if either guy won. The only thing I ask is that it is a clean win. I don’t think I can take another six months of this debating.
by pud333 on May 3, 2010 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for taking the words out of my mouth
Id rather Shogun win for numerous reasons, but either of them winning is fine. I’m just sick and tired of these close, controversial decisions.
by dreamers_12345 on May 3, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
*off topic but...*
The biggest winner on this night could have been mixed martial arts, where unless Anderson Silva is in the cage, you pay your money and you get your action.
Yahoo Sports on how the lackluster Mayweather/Mosley fight could help MMA events
"Let's kick some names and take some a$$"
by StayGoldLikeFlair on May 3, 2010 2:33 PM EDT reply actions
"Justice is the whim of a judge, check his chest density
It leaves much room for error, and the rest left to destiny."
-Sage Francis
by DamnSevern on May 3, 2010 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Good one. Evans reaction after that initial hit is kind of awkward.
I am still amazed at how often Machida keeps his head exposed for a strike.
"There's nothing cool about taking punishment" - Floyd Mayweather Jr.
by VeeisAnimated on May 6, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m hoping to see Lyoto take Shogun down a few times. Never hurts to be unpredictable, and to give something for the judges to hang their hat on. Just take him down, do a bit of gnp, get up.
I’m hoping Machida took the last fight as a loss emotionally. I think he did. Not saying the judges were wrong, I agree with them. But that was the closest he ever came to defeat and from the look on his face he knew it could have gone the other way. Hopefully the last fight taught him he cannot rely on winning decisions if he doesn’t finish. Perhaps it will make him more aggressive.
"an excellent example of why most MMA "journalism" is a joke. Pseudonyms like "toxic" and shitty writing like that dopey article"--- Joe Rogan.
Hmm
Well, considering that Anderson told him that he won every round and that publicly the family are holding to “4 rounds to Shogun’s 1,” and Machida claiming that his disappointed look was because he didn’t finish Shogun, I dunno…
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