FanPost

UFC 114 Buzz-rate PPV Buy Prediction: 705,000

http://www.tapology.com/2010/05/ufc-114-pay-per-view-buy-prediction-rampage-set-to-deliver/

What's up BloodyElbow.  I added in the comparison of the pre-fight prediction vs the actual outcomes, since people had been asking about them.  Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see this event do well over 705,000, but am going to stick with what the online buzz data is saying.  Should be an awesome event.



The main event of UFC 114 is the long-anticipated showdown between Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and “Sugar” Rashad Evans, a bout that has been brewing for over a year and is set to deliver a strong night of business for the UFC. The pair of light heavyweights, who coached and trash-talked opposite each other on the tenth season of the Ultimate Fighter, will headline an event that lost its co-main event a few weeks ago when Forrest Griffin had to pull out of a fight against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Despite the canceled bout, Rampage Jackson in particular is carrying and bringing in a ton of buzz for the event. Taking all of the numbers into account, Tapology’s pre-fight prediction for UFC 114 pay per view buys is 705,000. Breakdown below.

Tapology translates the volume of online interest for the main and co-main event fighters into an absolute “buzz score” in order to model a pay per view forecast. The higher each individual fighter’s buzz score, the more people who have been searching and reading about that fighter online in the days leading up to the event.

Former light heavyweight champion Quinton Jackson is drawing by far the most fan buzz for the event, nearly twice that of his opponent and also former light heavyweight champion, Rashad Evans. The 39.0 buzz score for Jackson is the highest for any single fighter since UFC 104 and Lyoto Machida. The co-main event between Michael Bisping and Dan Miller adds a little bit of buzz to the event, and certainly will help draw interest in the United Kingdom, but overall doesn’t do much.

Fighter Pre-Fight Buzz Score
Quinton Jackson 39.0
Rashad Evans 23.5
Michael Bisping 9.4
Dan Miller 8.1
Total 80.0

The combined score for the four main and co-main event fighters is 80.0, just above the level reached for UFC 111 featuring Georges St. Pierre defending his belt against Dan Hardy. That card came in with an estimated 770,000 pay per view buys according to trending estimates from the Wrestling Observer newsletter, slightly outperforming Tapology’s pre-fight estimate of 650,000. The combined buzz score for UFC 114 is slightly higher, and therefore could also exceed expectations, however the lack of a title on the line and no strong co-main event may hurt.

As a result, when we plug a score of 80.0 into the model, we get an estimate of 705,000 pay per view buys, and an expected excellent night of business for the UFC.

Event Main & Co-Main Event
Pre-Fight
Buzz Score
Tapology Pre-Fight
Forecast
Reported Actual
Pay Per View Buys
UFC 100 156.9 1,600,000
UFC 101 83.1 900,000
UFC 102 46.6 435,000
UFC 103 56.2 375,000
UFC 104 81.1 730,000 500,000
UFC 106 63.9 510,000 375,000
UFC 107 67.5 540,000 620,000
UFC 108 43.4 275,000 300,000
UFC 109 46.6 315,000 285,000
UFC 110 50.1 355,000 240,000
UFC 111 77.3 650,000 770,000
UFC 112 58.1 440,000 500,000
UFC 113 62.2 490,000 520,000 (trending estimate)
UFC 114 80.0 705,000

Post-event pay per view numbers are based off of the great analysis that can be found at MMAPayout.com as well as the Wrestling Observer newsletter.


\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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