UFC 112 Preview: Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia

he destroyed sonnen on the ground.

1. “Fluky” in the sense that I would guess that the odds of his getting a take down like that against Sonnen again are about 1 in 50. Sonnen has never been the smartest fighter and he underestimated Maia’s judo. Given that Sonnen is an epically better wrestler than Maia I seriously doubt it would happen again. Unless you know something that I don’t about Maia having world class judo, I’d call it “fluky” in the sense I just outlined.

2. Please read carefully, or think, (I’ll settle for the latter) before responding. I listed at leaset four fights regarding Silva’s takedown defense. No one seriously thinks Silva has good take down defense. Nobody. No. One. Not a single person. The opposite of some people. (except for people who do not have good memories of course or who haven’t watched his fights, or are in capable of processing information that conflicts with an erroneous belief). Silva’s game off his back is usually just to stall to get a stand up (which is why he uses the body triangle – see his fight against NM, Newton, others). That is not the mark of someone who’s looking for the sub. To respond to your Lutter example: Lutter got hit with an up kick and fell into what was a sloppy triangle that Silva could not finish as a choke. Instead he used it to pummel a flabby, exhausted lutter with elbows until he quit. Good finish. But not a BJJ finish and I take it you were using that as an example of his BJJ submission skills. Doesn’t work.

I realize he’s a blackbelt and could school 99% of people at your local BJJ dojo but that’s a far cry from saying he’s an elite BJJ player. His skills off his back are modest at best and his guard has been passed by a variety of people no one would confuse with having world class submission wrestling skills, including Lutter, Newton, Hendo (good wrestler when he wrestles but his grappling skills consist more of being a wet blanket than dynamic positional submission grappler), Takasi, etc. Maia is a world class submission grappler.

Silva does not hip escape well and in general he’s a bit awkward on the ground although he’s improved on locking people down over the years. So in sum, your triangle against Lutter example proves very little and in the context is simply completely off base because the odds that he will submit Maia off his back are 0%.

Finally my general point was that the odds were off. I take it you’re really good with numbers and think the odds should be -10000 in Silva’s favor, primarily because his fat head poster hangs above your bed and Joe Rogan has called Silva an “alien” indicating he has other wordly skills. I’m a big fan of Silva’s stand up and could list probably three or four things that make him great that you, i’m willing to wager, could not. Nevertheless I think I can assess his ground skills as well as the next person and my assessment for the reasons listed above and others I will expound on if you force me to is generally better (I’m guessing here) than yours is, and most of the betting public’s.

1. Silva could not buck Lutter off. Lutter went for a terrible arm bar and fell off. This isn’t controversial. Watch the fight again. But fair point about the knee. I didn’t know that. If that’s the case it would make me rethink how poorly he performed.

2. That’s true. Silva locked him down well, which was the smart thing to do. Silva is a very very smart and well prepared fighter. Leites had an idiotic grappling strategy for an MMA match (one which didn’t involve any sort of GnP) where there are stand ups.

3. Hendo’s wrestling ability (at least as it pertains to MMA) is somewhat overstated by most people IMO. He’s not a good defensive wrestler and he looks first to strike. It cost him the fight against Silva. In the 2d round Hendo got a hold of Silva’s waste, moved him around against the case and then went for a knee (and foolishly released his hold as he did).

4. That was a good take down; however, NM had just gotten rocked and was holding on for dear life. You’ll also note that Silva’s sprawl was pretty poor, that he didn’t keep his weight on his hips and that he got away with this because again NM was still seeing stars. Silva is a good athlete and used to use his offensive wrestling a lot more. Watch his fight against lightning lee murray for instance. My point was about his TD defense however rather than his offensive wrestling skills, which he hasn’t had the need to use since he’s always been at an advantage on his feet.

Fair enough point, about Cote. I’ll have to watch that fight again. That point goes toward demonstrating his offensive wrestling skills are good however. My point is about his TD defense.