Is April 17th Strikeforce's Last Stand on CBS?

I’m very curious about the order of the fights on CBS. If Shields has his typical fight with Henderson and that’s the show opener they’ll lose the entire audience.

Normally putting 3 titles on the line in one show would be a no brainer… here it might not be such a good idea. Henderson should be fighting Mousasi for the LHW belt and Lawal should be fighting a money weight fight against anyone else. Aoki and Melendez is fine as it should be an exciting fight.

I hate the idea of promoters paying fighters to keep the fight standing (ala Slice/Petrazelli) but the Hendo-Shields fight might be the exception to this.

Every time I see something about Strikeforce these days, I just see them sinking more and more into the Elite xc realm.

I feel like Coker is going to regret making these moves and getting involved with CBS. He had a good thing going as a small regional show that could turn a profit.

Dana/CBS is going to sink him before the year is out.

SF had a good business model as a regional show. now they are number two in mindshare for US MMA market. Even if they lose the CBS deal, they are still going to continue to provide good shows and good fights. if they lose the CBS deal, they aren’t going to go away. The UFC is doing great without major network shows, they’re constantly dumping world-class talent, and fighters are going to want to continue fighting.

anyone who had delusions of CBS propelling Strikeforce past UFC is silly. This changes nothing in what strikeforce does or who they are.

MMA Payout somewhat misses the point here:

Meltzer essentially captures the plight of the major networks have with MMA: whatever audience they gain as the result of MMA television is offset or surpassed by the audience they lose.

The audience size is not what matters here. It’s the demographic. The 18-34 male demographic is a big deal to CBS because 18-34 males spend a ton of money, so (many) advertisers are willing to pay more for a 30-second ad when it reaches 18-34 males than if it reaches an older demographic. Also, ad rates are often negotiated based on number of viewers and demographics, among other things. Even if the total number of viewers is much lower than usual for CBS on a Saturday night, MMA can still be more profitable than regular programming if the increased ad rates (because of MMA’s demographics) offset the decreased viewership.

One big problem that Strikeforce ran into here is that it waited far too long to announce the show and lost a huge opportunity to get a lot of free publicity… the Olympics. I don’t care that it was the winter instead of summer Olympics. Dan Henderson is a former US Olympic wrestler, and CBS/Strikeforce should have put him on every sports show possible in between Olympics coverage hyping his fight with Shields. Hendo is also a nice enough guy that he would likely be embraced by the audience watching Olympics and drawn in new viewers, reaching a new – or at least wider range of the existing – demographic. As it is, they should still promote the show using Hendo’s Olympic background, especially since they have no access to his Pride or UFC footage.

Also, while many of us think the worst thing for Strikeforce is a card full of “boring” fights, that could actually be good for CBS/MMA/Strikeforce IF THEY REACH A WIDER AUDIENCE, such as people who watch the Olympics. If these people tune in and see a night of wrestling/grappling/BJJ, it may soften the view of MMA as being brutal, bloody, and barbaric. (Sorry, I don’t know why I keep typing in three’s.) The 34-50 male demographic might actually be willing to watch MMA to see a former US Olympian fight (much closer to boxing than the common perception of no-holds-barred fighting). And the spouses of that demographic will likely find a night of bloodless grappling much more tolerable than an “average” MMA fight.

Here’s my quick input:

1) CBS pays very little for Strikeforce. 2.5 mil license fee max (I actually heard it’s 1.2 mil but I can’t believe its that low)
2) CBS makes $60,000 + per 30 sec buy from Strikeforce
3) CBS makes only $30-45,000 buy with reruns and 48 hours mysteries
4) even thought those programs are cheaper, mma brings in a different demo which CBS can use to sell block packages to buyers
5) If the UFC counters its the best news for CBS since they are currently drawing from different demos. They will gain from the hype surrounding a UFC/Strikeforce rivalry
6) Strikeforce goes out and picks up Arlovski, Hendo, Bobby Lashley, and a bunch morel with CBS greenlight, And they aren’t planning more show?

boom. the world expl0zdez!

Strikeforce is going to take a hit here. Real bad news.

I really hope the UFC counters Strikeforce, if only so that I can watch Shinya vs Gil, Mousasi vs Mo, and Wandy vs Sexy from the comforts of my friend’s home (I actually don’t own a tv). But if Zuffa asked me I would recommend they don’t do it. The reasons:

1) All it will do is bring undo attention to the CBS card. And since CBS draws from a different demo it is entirely possible that rating for this card may actually be on par with the last one. So the UFC might actually risk losing a publicity battle by drawing a smaller audience. And so what if the more valuable 18-34 demo chooses the UFC or Strikeforce, all that is going to do is whet the appetite of CBS execs, thinking that is a potential audience they can draw over.
2) Counter programming works two ways. They could also lose ratings, meaning they’ve lowered their advertising prices to hustle together a card. A card that if it includes the rumored contestants will be much more expensive than the April 17th Strikeforce card.

My advise to the UFC would be to buckle down and just outpace Strikeforce. A year or two from now, if they stick to what they’re doing and Strikeforce can’t magically morph into the most dynamic promotion around, they’ll be so far back in the rear view mirror that they won’t even be worth thinking about.

CBS skews far, far older than Spike TV to begin with. I believe the median viewer of CBS programming on any given night is going to be in his or her 50s. The fact that StrikeForce on CBS does not skew as young as the UFC on Spike TV or PPV is not the least bit surprising. StrikeForce still skews far younger and more male than the CBS norm, and helps draw younger viewers to their network at a time when network television ratings have never been lower. The fact is a portion of StrikeForce’s viewers are going to be a segment of old people who watch just about anything. This might be surprising, but statistically the segment of the population that watches the most television is people over the age of 54, and it was that way even before the internet was omnipresent.

I’m pretty sure that CBS won’t axe future StrikeForce events if Hendo and Shields only manage to get 80% of the ratings that Fedor got. Now if they tanked much further than that, I don’t know, but I would guess CBS is going to show some patience here.

You can always count on Kid Nate to bring the M-1/Fedor hate. Good job.