By the Numbers: Dominick Cruz Breaks Zuffa Champion Trend
by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 7, 2010 12:46 PM EST
in MMA News
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See if you can look at these numbers and know what they mean:
Lightweight:
Rob McCullough - 77%
Jamie Varner - 92%
Ben Henderson - 89%Featherweight:
Urijah Faber - 91%
Mike Brown - 74%
Jose Aldo - 80%Bantamweight:
Chase Beebe - 83%
Miguel Torres - 85%
Brian Bowles - 100%
Dominick Cruz - 43%
These are the percentage of wins by stoppage of WEC champions since 2007 at the time that the fighter fought for his belt. Dominick Cruz is the only man to win a title in a Zuffa promotion during that time who had stopped less than half of the men he beat. Here's a look at the five Zuffa champions since 2007 (Cruz excluded) with the lowest stoppage rate coming into the evening where they won the titile:
Forrest Griffin - 67%
Randy Couture - 57%
Lyoto Machida - 57%
Rashad Evans - 50%
Matt Serra - 50%
Total combined title defenses by these men? 2. Randy Couture (who is hard to count given it was his 5th title) defended against Gabriel Gonzaga. And Lyoto Machida defended with his ultra-controversial decision win over Mauricio Rua.
This isn't to say that Cruz can't defend his title successfully and have a four year reign as champion. I just place a lot of value on the ability of a fighter to finish, especially when he is having to fight 5 round fights against stiff competition.
One final interesting note: Brian Bowles joins Brian Stann as the only WEC champions who failed to successfully defend their title at least once since the Zuffa purchase.
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He’s Brent Brook(da-da-da-da)House, he’s mighty mighty, just lettin’ it all hang out…..
by ufc4 on Mar 7, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I love me some original thought and analysis! Super-rec.
by casey manrique on Mar 7, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Really fascinating
Nothing really intelligent to add, I just love dorking out over stats. This blog is the best
by Tedd Welch on Mar 7, 2010 12:49 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, it’s not really massively important. I mean, if you look at certain numbers you can always find good and bad things about certain fighters.
True stat: The average top 15 heavyweight finishes 80% of his wins before joining a “major promotion” (defined as PRIDE, UFC, WEC, Strikeforce, EXC, DREAM, Sengoku) and only one suffered more than one stoppage loss during that time (Monson). So okay, we can look at Tim Hague – 70% finish rate, Justin McCully 42% finish rate and stopped 3 times, Mostapha Al-Turk 67% finish rate and stopped twice…and we can go "see! of course they weren’t going to be any good in the UFC! But then what about the Eddie Sanchez’s of the world? 100% finish rate and undefeated.
Numbers almost never tell the whole story. But they’re still really damn interesting.
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com
by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 7, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
that's a really interesting stat
and I’m sure there are a lot more of them. I don’t know if it would be worth your while or if the demand is there, but making a book filled with little stats and facts about MMA similar to that one would be a must buy as far as I’m concerned. You could call it The Mundane, Inane, and Insane: A Book of MMA Facts and Stats by Brent Brookhouse
"It’s going to be like sex with a grizzly bear, you know, a lot of scratching and growling on both sides." - Don Frye
I just place a lot of value on the ability of a fighter to finish,
well said Mr.brookhouse.Its my opinion thats what mma is all about ,finishing fights. I know we have to have time limits and rounds now, but i sure did love the early UFC’s. there was always a finish. I hate “grinders” i think if a pro fighter isnt finishing fights pretty regularly maybe they should just go be a realator.
I think he was saying that he places a high value on the ability to finish in regards to expecting a long title reign.
I think there is some validity to that, but looking at the recent history, it seems just flat-out difficult to defend a belt more than a couple of times regardless. Even the guys with high finishing percentages rarely hold on very long. I think we should really enjoy it when a guy goes on a run of more than 2 or 3 defenses
Use all ten points.
Also...
A lot of those guys at the top of the chart also had short reigns:
Chase Beebe: 1 defense, then lost
Torres: 3 defenses
Bowles: 0 defenses
McCollough: 1 defense
Varner: 2 defenses (1 very controversial)
Faber: 5 defenses
Brown: 2 defenses
So the average of these guys is 2 defenses before they lost.
In the UFC group, I think you have to exclude Machida, because he hasn’t lost yet (He could go on to have a long reign. We just don’t know.). That makes the UFC group look even worse: an average of .25 title defenses.
Doesn’t bode well for Cruz.
Use all ten points.
For the record
Liddell (9 of 15, 60% when he won the belt): 4 defenses
Rampage: (19 of 26, 73% when he won the belt): 1 defense
Hughes: (24 of 30, 80% when he won the belt): 5 defenses
Hughes: (29 of 36, 81% when he won the belt): 2 defenses (plus 2 catchweight wins)
GSP: (9 of 12, 75% when he won the belt): 0 defenses
GSP: (11 of 15, 73% when he won the belt): 3 defenses and counting
It’s hard to see much of a correlation.
Use all ten points.
Anderson Silva?
Someone do Anderson. I’m not about to try and crunch those numbers on my phone.
by JimJoe on Mar 7, 2010 1:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Heavyweights
Sylvia: 14 wins, 2 decisions: 86% finishes, 0 defenses (drug test)
Sylvia: 20 wins, 3 decisions: 85% finishes, 2 defenses
Arlovski: 7 wins, 0 decisions: 100% finishes, 2 defenses
Use all ten points.
I think the bantamweight division is similar to the way the UFC’s light heavyweight division was up until Machida became champion. A lot of evenly matched fighters who prove anyone can win on any given night. I think it will be hard for any of them to hold the title long-term. We’re almost to the point where being well-rounded isn’t even enough anymore, you must be amazingly good at at last one aspect of the MMA system.
"Well, yes, but I’m afraid I prematurely shot my wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, if you will, so now I’m afraid I have something of a mess on my hands." - Tobias Fünke
"There are just so many poorly chosen words in that sentence." - Michael Bluth
One of my favorite lines from the best TV show ever.
Love the Arrested Development stuff!
But I have to point out that Machida doesn’t appear to be head and shoulders above the 205 division. Many have reasonably argued that he lost to Shogun. And whether or not he won is not the point, but that the fight was very close.
Use all ten points.
well....
his striking is pretty far above. Even if you feel shogun beat him (he didnt).shogun is pretty far above the rest of the div. in striking. plus the Dragons td defense is pretty awsome.
Not about whether Shogun won
I was just responding to the idea that now that Machida has the belt, he’ll definitely keep it for a long time. That fight was a) very close and b) went to a decision which are two things that don’t indicate that Machida has a stranglehold on the division. zakkree’s post said that he thought that before Machida got the belt, 205 was a division with lots of fighters who could beat each other on any given night. My point was that the Machida/Shogun fight was a continuation of that trend, not a break from it.
Use all ten points.
I think you’re right on there. It’s extremely hard to have a long run in LHW, nowadays. It’s just too tough, and a key to all of this is, once you’re on top, you never have an easy fight ahead of you. It’s always someone on a good run, with all the motivation in the world. The WEC, to me, is really just rounding out those divisions. A lot more guys are making a living at BW and FW now, and it’s going to result in a lot of volatility at the top. Faber and Torres looked unstoppable, then Mike Brown, and now Jose Aldo. I expect Aldo to dominate for a while, but who knows?
by Kwisatz Haderach on Mar 8, 2010 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
If his striking was so far above the rest of the division he would have dominated that fight
Considering it was essentially a kick boxing match. That’s kind of inarguable. His striking is really unique and its given a lot of fighters problems, but Shogun’s gave him plenty of trouble. Jury is out on Machida.
The man known simply as "Christmas Cheesesteak"
by Neil Manich on Mar 7, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What are you trying to say?
A statistic with no relevant analysis is kind of meaningless. Are we supposed to take from this an implication that only fighters who “finish fights!” can be true champions?
Should we go ahead and write off Cruz as a one hit wonder because you “place a lot of value on the ability of a fighter to finish”, disregarding the fact that he’s already beaten his #1 challenger by outlasting him in a decision? What ever happened to placing value on the ability of a fighter to win?
I knew there'd be one guy that would get all weird about this, and you were certainly on the short list of who it could be.
The people below really nail it.
1) Fighters who finish fights leave less time for the other guy to finish him and it’s also a fact that the vast majority of the elite fighters in the sport finish fights, especially those prior to reaching the title (i.e. when you’re usually facing your weakest competition).
2) They also take the scoring element out of play where you’re hoping that the judges value what you do appropriately. For example, if you get taken down 3 rounds out of 5 but take no damage while doing damage during standup periods, do they overvalue the meaningless takedowns? Or do they not count leg kicks? ..etc
3) If I don’t have to worry about your ability to finish me, it allows me to focus less on defense and more on offense which is valued on the scorecards and opens up the avenues for me to finish you.
4) I really enjoy that you say “Should we go ahead and write off Cruz as a one hit wonder because you "place a lot of value on the ability of a fighter to finish", disregarding the fact that he’s already beaten his #1 challenger by outlasting him in a decision?” acting as though this isn’t the entirety of my statement:
This isn’t to say that Cruz can’t defend his title successfully and have a four year reign as champion. I just place a lot of value on the ability of a fighter to finish, especially when he is having to fight 5 round fights against stiff competition.
He COULD beat everyone he ever fights for the rest of his career. But I (notice how I didn’t say “everyone”) put a lot of value on a fighter being able to finish with regularity.
5) Please inform me of when I said that I don’t care about a fighter’s ability to win.
6) Learn not to take everything so fucking seriously all the time.
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com
by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 8, 2010 12:50 AM EST up reply actions
Excuse me for holding you accountable for weak-sauce analysis
The problem I have with your analysis is that you intentionally fail to see it through to its logical conclusion. You give a million reasons why you think Cruz probably won’t be champion for long but stop short of actually saying “Cruz probably won’t be a champion for long” and then get on my case when I call you on it.
But besides that, your implication that finishing fights has some inherent elite quality is far-fetched.
The best pound for pound boxer going on the last several years has a Forrest Griffin-esque finish rate of about 65%, giving his opponents (who are presumably less afraid of getting knocked out) ample time to finish him and giving judges multiple opportunities to confuse their scoring criteria.
Georges St. Pierre won decisions 36% of the time when not fighting for or defending a UFC belt, and a mere 25% of the time when fighting for it. Does that mean the competition he faced on the way is or was stiffer than the competition he faced once he got there? Of course not. It’s a meaningless statistic.
You’ll also note that his finish rate is only slightly better than Griffin’s and yet he ranks in the top 10 UFC champions in terms of consecutive title defenses. Luckily your list of non-finishing champions was limited to 5 so that you wouldn’t have to address that.
Finally, your assertion that “If I don’t have to worry about your ability to finish me, it allows me to focus less on defense and more on offense” is ludicrous. Ask Nate Marquardt how that worked out for him against Sonnen (a top contender with a sub-50% finish rate, btw)
by George Lucas on Mar 10, 2010 6:08 AM EST up reply actions
I think what Dr. Brookhouse is saying is that fighters who finish fights have a better chance of lasting at the top. And since Cruz hasn’t been finishing many people (Bowles counts, I guess), it doesn’t bode well for his reign.
You can make the argument that outlasting people is enough, but it’s the harder path (and I think that the stats above bear out that even finishers have a tough time staying on top for long). I think a decent analogy is a pitcher who can’t strike anyone out. The fewer balls his defense has to play, the better his chances are. In MMA, it helps your case enormously if you can get some title defenses without having to defend yourself for 25 minutes, especially because the competition level and stakes are higher at the top.
Use all ten points.
I was getting ready to say the exact same thing re: the pitcher analogy. If a fighter can KO or sub someone (like the pitcher getting a strikeout) they don’t leave it in the hands of the judges (the pitcher’s defense) to give him the win (get the out). While ideally the judges would make the right decision every time sometimes on fights that are really close it’s hard to say who really won, if you finish it yourself you leave no questions (other than a controversial stoppage).
To further the analogy
If you never/rarely get strikeouts, you’re vulnerable to people loading up and taking big swings for home runs (i.e. knocking you out).
Use all ten points.
Damn!!!That was hellacious. When we saw his feet come off the ground, a collective shout of “Oh shit!!!” rang out from everyone I watched this with.
by Kwisatz Haderach on Mar 8, 2010 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
I was disappointed in that fight's outcome...
simply because it means alot more of Cruz’s weird-ass fighting style.
Seriously, it was like watching some bastard son of Ed Grimly and Fire Marshal Bill throwing punches.
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