Gambling Spotlight: UFC 111

Want to make a one sided main event a little more interesting?  Take an amount of money you would be comfortable losing on a bet.  Double it.  Deposit said money onto your favorite offshore bookie (don't forget to check it's rating on SportsBookReview.com!).  Find the MMA lines.  Click the checkmark by "Georges St-Pierre".  Confirm your bet.  Start ingesting alcohol.

Note: The percentage next to the best available line is the breakeven rate for the bet.  It's how often the fight would have to win the fight for the best to be profitable.  For example, the best line on Georges St-Pierre is -625, which yields an 86% break even rate.  If Georges were to fight Dan Hardy 100 times, he would have to win at least 87 of those fights for your bet to be profitable in the long run.

The message has reverberated through the echo chamber for the past month: Dan Hardy has no shot when he steps in the cage against Georges St-Pierre.  I'm not going to tell you any differently.  

I like what I've seen and heard from Hardy's camp.  If he's prepared to deal with St-Pierre's wrestling without his mind being consumed with the idea of being taken down, he's put himself in a great mindset entering the fight.  He looks to be in awesome physical shape and he seems genuinely confident he can win the fight on Saturday.

I just don't see how he can overcome St-Pierre on Saturday night.  Georges gets ball-washed all over the place with good reason; the guys is a physical specimen with a work ethic that puts him in the same breath as Michael Jordan or Tiger Woods.  The man doesn't want to just be the best.  He wants to be the best ever.

While Hardy can't worry about St-Pierre's takedowns during the fight, anyone who bets on him has to.  I have no clue how Georges St-Pierre developed his wrestling ability.  Genetic predisposition?  A conscious effort to make it the focus of his game?  Dumb luck?

Whatever the case may be, St-Pierre's wrestling is an absolute game changer, and there's no reason to believe Hardy can do anything to prevent it.  Jon Fitch - similar in size to Hardy with an established wrestling pedigree - had no answers.  Thiago Alves (with Mo Lawal's guarantee) had no answers.  Even Hardy himself has publicly accepted the fact that he'll spend the majority of this fight on his back.

Most people don't like laying a lot of chalk, but if you've got the balls to sweat twenty five minutes of wrestling, I think you can find some slim value on GSP at -625.  Hardy stands next to no chance of taking a decision and won't submit Georges.  Outside of the Serra Swan, St-Pierre hasn't found himself in any danger on his feet.  Hardy's going to have to land something coming off a clinch or out of a scramble when St-Pierre might not have his complete composure.  Other than that, this fights looks academic.

This is a really fun fight to break down as their styles and attributes complement each other well.  Mir, as much as it pains me to say it, is the more technical fighter standing, but Carwin makes up for it in power.  Carwin, we can assume, is a much better wrestler, but Mir is dangerous off his back.  Mir brings more UFC experience; Carwin lacks experience because he's crushed all eleven of his opponents.

One issue I've had with Frank's standup is that he's been prone to standing very stiff, straight legged, and flat footed.  It's very apparent in his win over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.  His stance looked to improve somewhat in the second Lesnar fight and his last fight with Cheick Kongo, but not much of either contest was spent vertically, so I can't say for sure how much ground he's gained. 

Frank's inviting Shane Carwin to take him down if he moves and throws strikes stiff and flat footed.  There's really nothing more to add to that.  You're not going to be able to sprawl effectively standing on your heels.  Watch Frank's feet from the opening bell, and you'll have a good gauge on how the wrestling will go during the fight.

The big flaw I see from Carwin is his striking defense.  He has a tendency to charge forward with his punches and leaves his head wide open.  In each of his UFC fights (Gonzaga, Wain, and Wellisch), he gets tagged pretty good at some point.  There's a silver lining in that he's demonstrated a strong chin, but it's exploitable if Mir can avoid getting clipped by Shane's clubs.

Pandora's Box awaits us if this fight hits the floor.  I haven't seen Carwin grapple (and if tape exists, it's certainly not against someone at Frank Mir's level), so what he brings to the table as far as top control will be fresh to most everyone watching the bout.

We've seen Mir fight a dominating wrestler, and it's not pretty.  Thankfully for Mir backers, he recognizes that the issues he had with Lesnar had as much to do with a gap in technique as it did with Lesnar's size and strength.  Frank made no discernible effort to move his hips and allowed himself to be flattened on the mat.  He should be fine if he's corrected this mistake, but if Carwin can keep Frank immobilized like Lesnar, it's going to be a long night for Mir.

Of course, an analysis involving a fighter with a past history of gassing, another with no history of going past the two minute mark, and the two being involved in a five rounder wouldn't be complete without some sort of mention about cardio.  This fight shouldn't go past the second round.  I'll leave it at that.

Frank looks like the favorite in this fight, but I don't think it's as wide as this line.  Shane's power is such a huge equalizer in this fight, and his wrestling presents a big roadblock for Mir to work a submission.  I like a small half-unit to unit play on Carwin at +140.

The New Jersey Athletic Commission pulled a Northern Iowa and busted everyone's bracket this weekend.  Thiago Alves might have something in his head, Jake Ellenberger loses a fight, and I have to scramble some words together into an omelet for you.

I took Fitch at -350 when I saw the line.  I'm fairly happy with it, but without much time to rewatch tape and having to beat the market (I expect this to settle at -500 Fitch), my analysis may be hasty.  Saunders had trouble staying off his back in the Swick fight, which gave me reason to hit Fitch.  That said, Saunders height and length pose an interesting problem for Fitch, and taking the fight on a day's notice may exacerbate those problems without opponent specific training.

Still, I think Fitch at -350 is still at a place where you can take him comfortably.  Saunders' destruction of Marcus Davis was impressive, but Davis is much shorter than and does not have the intimidating wrestling of Fitch.