UFC 111 Business Expectations
by Michael Rome on Mar 25, 2010 5:18 PM EDT
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UFC 111 is the biggest UFC show in a long time. Georges St. Pierre, their biggest star outside of Brock Lesnar, finally makes his return after 8 months on the sideline, and an interim heavyweight champion will be crowned. The show is already a success at the gate, having sold out to a tune of over $4 million.
How will it do on pay per view? It's hard to say. The company has done three straight weak numbers, but all for cards that nobody expected to draw anyway. The best point of comparison is UFC 107, which featured BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez and Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo. That card did about 650,000 buys.
GSP is a bigger draw than BJ Penn, primarily due to the fact that every GSP card brings in an extra 100,000 purchases from Canada. But is Dan Hardy a draw at all? He has a big personality, but he's certainly not as credible in the eyes of UFC fans as Diego Sanchez. Based on the poll pictured above, the vast majority of UFC fans expect Dan Hardy to lose. Will over 600,000 fans buy a card just to see GSP dominate a random opponent?
UFC 107 built a ton of steam the week of the event thanks to Frank Mir, who relentlessly antagonized Cheick Kongo. Mir has done nothing but compliment Shane Carwin this time around, most likely because he wants to avoid the spotlight so soon after the "scandal" over his comments. Shane Carwin means next to nothing to casual UFC fans from a buyrate perspective.
From a business perspective, Mir-Carwin may be the most important fight on the card, because the winner is probably fighting Brock Lesnar at UFC 116. If Mir wins and they set up a third fight, it's probably worth in excess of 500,000 buys more than a Lesnar-Carwin fight.
The card took a big blow in the loss of Thiago Alves. I don't expect that to affect the buyrate much, but it was the fight on the card I was looking forward to the most, and I don't think I'm alone there.
I think this card will do between 575,000 and 650,000 buys in North America, which is a really strong number if you consider the fact that it's really just for one man: Georges St. Pierre.
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700-800
alves isnt really a loss the casual fan has no idea who he is since hes really not a draw at all
I think this is about right.
Sure numbers have been down lately, but I know a number of people have been wait specifically for this show. Some of the casual fans I know have benn asking me when “the next big card” is. This one is it.
I wouldn't be surprised if the number did reach high too.
The UFC has over a million people who could potentially buy any given card. We already know this.
Do we think a lot of those fans have lost interest in the UFC?
or
Do we think a lot of those fans have been holding out for the next big event?
I lean towards the latter.
I guess I expect a good number of people to also purchase this card for Mir-Carwin in addition to wanting to see GSP, given that Mir is well known, the commercials have advertised Mir-Carwin as being a title fight (which is big for the casual fan), and the clips they show of those 2 big HWs look awfully exciting.
I think the card will get a lot of PPV buys. UFC 110 wasn’t advertised much and got few buys, so fans should shell out the cash this time around.
Since this is the first time they are showing a card in theaters
are movie theater sales going to affect PPV numbers at all or are they their own set of numbers?
Do you mind if we dance with your dates?
In Morey We Trust.
Agreed
GSP + Mir = 800k+
While I don’t think any sort of viewing numbers are released over here as it’s not on PPV, I’d like to know if a English fighter going for a title does draw many extra views here in the UK.
At 3:00am not bloody likely (although I’ll be up)
by Mat Parker 116 on Mar 25, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Well clearly I mean as in the same timeslot as any UFC event over here gets it’s highest number of viewers which I presume would be the replay.
Most sports over here pick up a bit when were going for the championship, so I just wondered if word of mouth that a UK fighter is going for a UFC title would be enough to get people who are intrigued by it too watch, or boxing fans who don’t like the ground game to give it another try, etc etc.
Yeah I doubt it. Would be interesting though to see the viewer numbers if or when they replay it, often on Sunday nights. I think a lot of people would watch that
"If I had a green shirt on, a pink shirt, a blue shirt, If I had a fuckin' tie-dyed Hawaiian shirt from 1952, Bobby still won that fight" Forrest Griffin
This card will do well. There has been a drought of good UFC cards recently, and GSP + 2 title fights + a solid supporting card will bring in a lot of buys.
Without pain, without sacrifice, we would have nothing.
by lowellthehammer on Mar 25, 2010 4:16 PM EDT reply actions
675k
"For some reason Dana White doesn't like me, and I don't care enough to find out why. So he can go pound sand up his ass as far as I'm concerned."
Don Frye
by keyboardwarrior on Mar 25, 2010 4:16 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t think Carwin draws anybody that GSP or Mir don’t already draw
"For some reason Dana White doesn't like me, and I don't care enough to find out why. So he can go pound sand up his ass as far as I'm concerned."
Don Frye
by keyboardwarrior on Mar 25, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL @ -100K for Fitch.
So true.
But hey, Fitch says he hates going to decisions!
by MickDawg on Mar 25, 2010 4:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Lets take a moment and think about this.
Just like Rome says, this card is essentially being sold by GSP and a Primetime show. Maybe a little Mir for his name, but not his personality this time around. Does GSP on his own draw more than BJ Penn and two TUF1 finalists (Diego and Kenny)?
Manny vs. Clottey, a boxing card carried solely on the shoulders of Pacman, sold 700k.
Do we expect GSP to be a bigger star than Pacquiao? And what does it mean about the boxing/MMA comparisons (as businesses, not sports) when the number two stars of each draw equally? Or, rather, the growth and acceptance of MMA as voted upon by dollars spent?
Once the numbers are out, I’ll probably do a fanpost regarding all these questions because I have no answers for them yet. But is anybody else intrigued?
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Difference is, that card was literally carried only by Pacquiao. While GSP is the main selling point of this card, the UFC brand itself brings in a good number of buys, plus the entire card from top to bottom is filled with good, relevant, competitive fights. Unfortunately, despite all that Pacquiao by himself is still probably going to outdraw UFC 111, which just speaks to how much more boxing is ingrained in the culture.
Without pain, without sacrifice, we would have nothing.
by lowellthehammer on Mar 25, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Just like Rome says, this card is essentially being sold by GSP and a Primetime show. Maybe a little Mir for his name, but not his personality this time around. Does GSP on his own draw more than BJ Penn and two TUF1 finalists (Diego and Kenny)?
But wasn’t UFC 107 co-headlined by Mir-Kongo, not Florian-Guida (Florian-Guida would be like Alves-Fitch was to UFC 111).
Maybe UFC’s strong PPV buys is a sign that Mir co-headlining with a star like GSP or BJ Penn can do really big PPV buys? I guess we’ll see how much of a star Mir is.
I think 107 had a lot of things going for it.
It was BJ Penn selling just because of who he is. Frank Mir brought in buys because he SOLD that fight. Diego is a draw because every TUF n00b knows and loves him. Kenny Florian also has the TUF n00b bump, and is also a wrecking ball. Especially fighting a high energy FOTN guy like Guida. I don’t think placement on the card matters so much as who they are. That was a pretty stacked card in the middle of an MMA drought.
111 comes sandwiched between two free UFC events within a week on either side. The oversaturation argument starts to make a bit of sense for hurting buys. GSP is the only proven draw here, although Mir is suspected by many (including me) to bring decent casual buys these days. The undercard, while full of entertaining fights for hardcores, isn’t bringing anybody new in.
Maybe I just see people here as being way too optimistic and want to use the Pacman numbers to temper their enthusiasm. But if it does sell based on the merits of Georges St. Pierre being a phenomenal competitor, we have an interesting development for the sport.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
If we’re using the argument of too many events close to a PPV possibly hurting it, wouldn’t 107 also have been adversely affected? UFC 105 and 106 were just weeks before it, and the TUF Finale was just days before. I don’t think free UFC events hurt a PPV, but they can help it by building anticipation.
I guess I see UFC 111 as far enough removed from the last time a lot of fans bought a UFC PPV, coupled with a huge start headlining and another good draw underneath, that it should be a card to do quite well.
Yeah. I don't understand how too many events close togther is really a problem...
Especially since those events didn’t do big numbers. The hardcores that will buy every event paid and watched. The casual fans didn’t. That is why the numbers were low.
If people didn’t spend money on UFC 110 (and the vast majority of them didn’t), it won’t effect the sales for UFC 111. It is more likely that the number for 110 were so low because people were waiting for UFC 111
The issue not being just events, but the adjectives for them and the timing.
105 was a weakish card well in advance. 106 was a weak card. 108 was a weak card. TUF10 was, well… Kimboplex. It was a drought of quality MMA. The only decent card near 107 was Strikeforce Evolution, which was easily the second best card within a month in either direction.
UFC 111 has to compete with a pretty stacked free Versus card six days before and a nice topheavy Fight Night card three days later. It’s really cutting it close. The only reason I’m making this argument is that hardcore fans I know are turning down UFC 111 for this very reason. Otherwise, I wouldn’t believe it either.
Overall, I still expect decent numbers. My prediction is 550k, which isn’t bad at all. I’d love to be wrong, bigger numbers for the UFC helps me as both a fan and professional, but I’m less optimistic than the people calling for +800k.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
You honestly think that UFC 111 is “competing” with UFC Live on VS or UFN 21? It’s hard to believe that will make any more difference than TUF Finale had on UFC 107.
I agree with truck, in that weak UFC PPV buys for 110 are in no small part due to people waiting for the big UFC 111 card with 2 title fights. I think the UFC has marketed that angle well.
I don't think it.
I know it. Like I said, several hardcores I know are opting out of buying 111 in favor of other Saturday night activities. They are seeing enough fights within a 10 day span already. Two free UFC cards and a Strikeforce Challengers card available is a lot of MMA by itself. They don’t want to pay $45 more.
Quite frankly, I expect an even worse response from casuals. They got their fight fix and have lives to attend to. Girlfriends who want some attention. Children to raise. Friends who want to do something else on a Saturday than watch fights again. If nothing less, bar attendance will be up and buys will be down.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
And don’t forget the amount lost to basketball and the high number of prowrestling and mma fans who may decide to go with Wrestlemania instead this weekend.
Still, GSP has been averaging close to 700,000 buys during his run as champion, and with a stacked card I expect the final tally to stay around there.
With all due respect, I can cite the other statements on this thread from people who say they know many others who have been pointing to this card for a long time, with more casuals going to purchase this because it’s the “next big card”. I’m not sure the sample size of their accounts, or yours, is substantial enough to make meaningful conclusions either way.
Interesting take pdl
Because I’ve bought every UFC card this year (weak as they may be) and I’ll be skipping on buying this one at home to go watch it at a sports bar with friends. Its the first time I’ve done because I don’t drink but with the two free shows, college hoops, having ordered the Pacquiao fight already (bad decision) and planning on ordering the Penn / Edgar & Silva / Maia card in a few weeks it makes sense to watch it at a local establishment.
@mmalogic
Everyone knows you are just going to spin anything towards the UFCs side (which is fine) so you need not even try and denigrate the position of pdl. It actually applies to me! I think what he’s saying has some merit. Don’t try and dimiss it because of the pro UFC stance you harbor.
by Johnnynumber5 on Mar 25, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
As long as we're talking oversaturation in MMA
as a negative factor in the number of buys, I think it’s also fair to say that part of the reason big boxing PPVs draw such large numbers is because, aside from those few high profile fights, there are not really any boxing PPVs worth paying for these days, so the relative drought of good events increases buys when a big name fight comes along.
"I want to tell me what you see, let's go ahead and see by in the fight, what you saw, in the ring." - Tito Ortiz
by CasualMMAFan on Mar 25, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
It might be affected by the boxing or Wrestlemania
If your a fan of all 3 do you really want to drop 150 + this month only on PPV?
I dont think it will have a huge toll but if someone already ordered the boxing they might go to a movie theater or bar instead of ordering it at home.
If we were coming off the success of a UFC 100 I could have easily seen this card do 800k + but with all the crap the UFC had been putting out before this I’m interested to see if any fans have given up on the UFC.
830,000
HW interim title fight + GSP. I can see this being passed. The exciting HW division should help propell this PPV buyrate. Plus, the card held near the largest media market in north america doesnt hurt.
If Russia attacked Turkey from the rear, Do you think Greece would help?
The 600,000 range seems fair and that’s a pretty good number really.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
Will over 600,000 fans buy a card just to see GSP dominate a random opponent?
I think this is offset by the fact that we haven’t seen GSP since last July. People need their GSP fix.
u cant forget that women love him too
he really should do an appearance on oprah as gay as it’d be the next card hes on would have a billion ppv buys
by milk72 on Mar 25, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, all of the girls I know that are even aware of the UFC are GSP fans
And considering that he’s polite, looks good in a suit, and ‘as a cool accent, I seriously wouldn’t surprised if an Oprah appearance before an upcoming fight increased his buyrate.
"I want to tell me what you see, let's go ahead and see by in the fight, what you saw, in the ring." - Tito Ortiz
by CasualMMAFan on Mar 25, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
That's he's expected to dominate muight drive up that 100,000 from Canada number.
Canadians loove GSP, but I get the impression (keeping in mind that I am a Canadian, and a GSP fan) that we find his fights really stressful, because we fear he might lose. We’re really negative like that.
A fight where we’re confident he’ll win easily is more likely to make for an enjoyable viewing experience.
This will be the PPV I’ve bought since UFC 100.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
UFC 111 on my big HD flat panel. Fuck streaming quality.
My casual friends are into this card. It will sell in the 575k – 675k range. The bars/ restaurants will packed for this card.
by snakecharmer1340 on Mar 25, 2010 4:59 PM EDT reply actions
Yah, I’m on vacay with my wife in Seattle this weekend and I will be watching this card at the Fox Sports Grill. Since I’ve never watched a UFC PPV at a bar before I called to see what time I should get there and they told me to show up at least 3 hours early if I want to get a seat. Ummm, yeah… This is card is gonna do gangbusters.
"Old Dogs does to the screen what old dogs do to the carpet. It's unfortunate that only the latter can be taken out and shot." -Kyle Smith
watchkalibrun.com
by Nick Becker on Mar 25, 2010 5:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Do PPV sales numbers include bar/restaurant sales?
Anybody know?
Bars pay by size. $500 – $1500
by snakecharmer1340 on Mar 25, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Lots of places are like that where I live.
They stop letting people in the building around 8… Others are over their seating capacity and have a standing room area.
Bars you spend something like $20 – $30 to watch it in a crowed venue.
I don’t mind paying the extract cash to watch it at my pad with friends.
by snakecharmer1340 on Mar 25, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
It usually costs $10 for entry around here.
Plus inflated booze brices… Pretty easy to spend an extra $20 or $30 on drinks.
I occassionally go to bars, depending on the event and what my friends are up to. Really though, bars don’t make much sense if you have more than two people watching.
I would generally rather watch them at home. Better environment and cheap all around.
I probably buy about half myself and the other half I watch at a freinds house. We alternate.
$10 cover per person. Plus they said they half the joint is dedicated to watching the fights. My wife and I checked in to the Hyatt across the street and brought a ton of booze with us. It was funny to see the valets’ look on their face as they put three half-racks of beer, two magnums of champagne, an eighth of vodka and 12 cans of Red Bull on the cart when we pulled up. They go, “Oh you guys are partying, huh?” We pre-funk proper. We don’t fuck around.
"Old Dogs does to the screen what old dogs do to the carpet. It's unfortunate that only the latter can be taken out and shot." -Kyle Smith
watchkalibrun.com
by Nick Becker on Mar 25, 2010 5:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Where I go it's $10
but every single person there (and it’s packed) is there for the fights.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
*they said that half the joint. I’m drunk already :) Go Cornell and UW! Expect at least one major NCAA upset tonight…
"Old Dogs does to the screen what old dogs do to the carpet. It's unfortunate that only the latter can be taken out and shot." -Kyle Smith
watchkalibrun.com
by Nick Becker on Mar 25, 2010 5:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
UFC Primetime + GSP = < 1mill PPV buys
But WTF do I know, you’re mmalogic :)
"Old Dogs does to the screen what old dogs do to the carpet. It's unfortunate that only the latter can be taken out and shot." -Kyle Smith
watchkalibrun.com
by Nick Becker on Mar 25, 2010 5:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah on second thought I think this card will end up around 800-900k buys.
Casual fans have been starved for a “big” UFC PPV and this definitely qualifies… Every one of my friends who doesn’t know squat about MMA is aware of this card.
"Old Dogs does to the screen what old dogs do to the carpet. It's unfortunate that only the latter can be taken out and shot." -Kyle Smith
watchkalibrun.com
by Nick Becker on Mar 25, 2010 6:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
ESPN is doing interviews with UFC fighters.
If they attention to the card, the casual fan is aware of the card on it’s own.
by snakecharmer1340 on Mar 25, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally
Now if Josh could actually put together more than 2 wins in a row to earn a shot…
Is the Koscheck/Daley fight being billed as a #1 contender match?
Wrestlemania over UFC 111? Get the fuck out of here.
Bad acting over real drama. You have to be kidding me.
by snakecharmer1340 on Mar 25, 2010 5:49 PM EDT reply actions
Based purely on how strong this card is with GSP, Mir and the Primetime...
and how weak the last few cards were in terms of numbers, I think people will shell out for this one. It’ll do more than 650 I think. Around the 800 mark would be nice.
I don't want to lick any butt. - GSP
if they're lucky!
I'm like PacMan fightin you silly kids... throw ya Hatton the ring, and get knocked outlike Ricky did.
lol.
Not for a GSP card.
Even if we exclude 100 he’s been averaging 700,000 + buys a show.
by John Nash on Mar 26, 2010 3:06 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
550k buys, people are getting way too crazy and seem to be throwing out numbers without any context. The fact is GSP has never had to carry a card like this before, this will all be on his back and while he is a draw he’s not that big a draw. If Manny did 700k and he’s a much bigger draw than GSP him doing over 500k buys will be a success considering Dan Hardy has little to no name value with fans.
DAN HARDY IS A PURPLE BELT
HARDY JUST GOT HIS PURPLE BELT UNDER BRAVO, THIS MMA LIVE QOUTED HIM AS A BROWN BELT
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