UFC 111 Preview: Did the UFC Miss the Mark on Selling Dan Hardy vs Georges St Pierre?

Dave Meltzer has a good piece up on UFC welterweight Dan Hardy who will challenge UFC champ Georges St Pierre this Saturday at UFC 111. First up, he's prepared to fight off his back against GSP:

"I have a lot of guys in England working on my takedown defense," he said. "I have a guy in Los Angeles who was a Division I wrestler, a guy on the British Olympic team. It's not because I'm fighting Georges, but it's an area of my game I want to work on.

At the Serra Jiu Jitsu Academy on Long Island, one of the main aspects of Hardy's training the past few weeks has been fighting from his back with training partners who are 200 pounds and more, bigger than St. Pierre, and working on ways to get back to his feet, figuring he's got 25 minutes to connect with a punch.

Secondly there is this interesting discussion of Hardy's roots in the martial arts (see also this Hardy interview with the UK Telegraph):

While St. Pierre has tried to paint a picture that it's a martial artist, himself, against a brawler, and that once the fight starts, the difference in skill level will be obvious, Hardy, 27, is hardly a stranger to traditional martial arts.

Hardy started in taekwondo at the age of six. When he was 19, he ventured to northern China to train with Shaolin monks. For two months, his life consisted of all-day training at a level he said was the toughest thing he's ever done in his life. It would be six days a week, and the seventh day he had no energy to do anything but rest. When he returned, he decided to become a fighter, and a traveler, noting after that experience he gained confidence to go places to learn, including frequent trips to the U.S., gaining a wide variety of training that has shaped him into the fighter he's become.

Hardy has been somewhat impressive in his UFC run, but he has failed to convince Zach Arnold that he's a credible threat to GSP:

Yes, I know Dan Hardy (+500 or more) is only half the underdog that Matt Serra (+1100) was going into their respective fights against St. Pierre (-700 versus Hardy), but I've yet to see anything on the hype specials or any argument online that can convince me that Hardy even has a puncher's chance. If the purpose of the Spike hype specials is to convince you that Hardy has a puncher's chance in the fight, then I think UFC has failed in accomplishing that.

And perhaps the enormous drop-off in viewers from week 1 to week 2 of the UFC Primetime special on the fight indicates that the fans are not buying it either, per MMA Payout:

The debut episode of the GSP vs. Hardy series scored big, but this follow-up has to be a little bit of a disappointment as it drops 50%. GSP vs. Penn only lost about 10% between its debut and follow up. Below is a summary of the ratings history of the entire UFC Primetime series:

January 14th, 2009 - Primetime: GSP vs. Penn E1 (880,000)
January 21st, 2009 - Primetime: GSP vs. Penn E2 (825,000)
January 28th, 2009 - Primetime: GSP vs. Penn E3 (662,000)
March 10th, 2010 - Primetime: GSP vs. Hardy E1 (1,000,000)
March 17th, 2010 - Primetime: GSP vs. Hardy E2 (506,000)

The show has done a good job of making Hardy look like a credible opponent - playing up his heavy hands and muay thai prowess - but I'm not convinced that was or should have been the main objective for the series. Primetime is an effective promotional tool when it develops a story that can evoke emotion in the viewer. One of the best ways to evoke emotion and charge the situation would have been to better exploit Hardy's trash-talking skills.

Personally I think the St. Patrick's Day factor had to have a huge negative impact on the second epidsode's ratings. But I am also among the many who cannot bring himself to believe that Dan Hardy represents a credible threat to St. Pierre's title. We'll find out Saturday if Hardy is more dangerous than we expect and shortly thereafter we'll find out how well UFC 111 does in selling PPVs.