UFC 112: A Puncher's Chance
by mason_beer on Mar 18, 2010 12:19 PM EDT
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PrintWatching both UFC Primetime and Countdown to 112, its interesting to see how the UFC is framing their top fights for 112 - GSP vs. Hardy and Mir vs. Carwin. On the one hand you have the experienced, multii-dimensional veterans in St. Pierre and Mir, and then you have the younger challengers who are known for their stand-up game and not much else. Hardy and Carwin are both trying to fight this notion, but the talents of GSP and Mir (when they are on their games) to me far exceed both Hardy and Carwin. And while the fighters might be resisting it, both coaches for the two challengers have admitted that the game plan is to throw hands and test the chins of their opponents.
I want to buy into the UFC hype, but I've followed the company long enough not to anymore (especially when I had Rothwell over Cain). Unless Mir or St. Peirre (Mir more likely) gets caught flush on the chin, they both have too many weapons in their arsenals and have come along farther in their total games.
I suspect absent a puncher's chance, we see St-Pierre and Mir walking away with belts at the end of the month.
Thoughts? Am I selling Hardy and Carwin too short here?
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when i saw carwin get rocked by gonzaga (carwin’s last fight a year ago), that was when i stopped buying the carwin hype. carwin also is working his engineering job full time. i simply don’t think he’s devoted enough to this sport to be able to hang with the top guys. and with Mir recently looking like one of the best HW’s out there (not counting the murder at the hands of lesnar), i simply don’t see carwin doing much in this fight.
carwin needs to bull rush mir with the takedown and hold him down.
I'm old school hating Lesnar, I've been hating Lesnar since '08
Totally agree
I do like Carwin’s chances at UFC 111 though.
your right
I guess I mean fight age, you know? Mir’s “older” in the fight game than Shane.
I’m actually curious to see if Carwin tries to work some GNP on Mir. Obviously Mir is a threat to submit anyone, but he’s also shown vulnerability when getting stuck in his half guard. Carwin could end the fight there. OTOH, Mir’s standup has looked very good lately, and perhaps he could take Carwin out there. I’m really intrigued by this fight.
I do think Carwin has a realistic shot (unlike Hardy), though Mir is still the heavy favourite.
If Carwin does win that tells me that he’s a better and more powerful striker even than we thought he was, and that’s an exciting challenge for Lesnar.
But I genuinely like Mir, so I’d be happy with that outcome as well.
On the other fight, I’m a big GSP nuthugger, so I don’t think Hardy sees the third round.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
I dunno. I let the hype sweep over me. I managed to convince myself Dan Hardy has a chance! I prefer it that way. Being objective is just a great way to not have any damn fun.
"an excellent example of why most MMA "journalism" is a joke. Pseudonyms like "toxic" and shitty writing like that dopey article"--- Joe Rogan.
I understand Hardy, but Carwin?
You’re way overselling Mir here and misusing the phrase “puncher’s chance.” Carwin has done one thing in the UFC so far: hit people in the face really fucking hard. He’s pretty good at it, and that’s likely gonna be his game plan against somebody with mediocre striking defense, sub-par takedowns, and a crazy offensive guard like Mir.
I think Mir’s best chance to get this fight to the mat is pulling guard, since Carwin has a solid wrestling pedigree, is naturally larger, and likely has a strength advantage. But you never want to eat GNP from a guy that big and powerful. So he can stay standing and try to outbox a guy who is easily top 5 for power in his hands. With Carwin’s unproven cardio and Mir’s questionable conditioning, I can see this strategy getting real sloppy late in the second. And in a slopfest, heavy power from a wrestle-boxer is a winning pick.
Long story short, Carwin has avenues to win this fight and is not a gimme fight for Mir. The odds are pretty close. Carwin is a decent bet at +130. Why would you say he only has a punchers chance?
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
by pdl on Mar 18, 2010 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Agree
Yes I agree, Hardy does not have a chance at winning. But Carwin has a VERY good chance, I do not understand how some people believe an undefeated fighter who hasn’t had one fight go past the first round doesnt have a chance of winning. Maybe you guys have to watch more MMA or something, but that is ludacris.
Carwin got the wrestling and the GnP you just totally forgot to mention it,
but we won’t.
For Hardy, maybe he doesn’t even have the puncher’s chance, we will see, maybe he will win and it will feel like this again.
Now Carwin could very well spoil Mir’s plans (and sanity), you don’t want to go around saying stuff like “he only got a puncher’s chance”, when he got the wrestling, the GnP + the crazy power. I would not be surprised to see him go down like Kongo though, with Mir you never know, the more you hate him the better he gets, he is probably unbeatable right now
"You hit too hard, too hard, too hard..."
by spectaa on Mar 18, 2010 8:40 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Yay
Every time I see that Serra pic it makes me happy. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a GSP nut-hugger to the end too, but having an underdog like him win that belt over GSP, it’s nice.
Self-Inflicted FAIL
This is for UFC 111, not 112. My bad
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