UFC on Versus: Vera vs. Jones Betting Odds
by Nick Thomas on Mar 17, 2010 5:45 PM EDT
in MMA News
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PrintAre up:
Main Bouts:
Jon Jones (9-1) [Num. 23] -265 vs. Brandon Vera (11-4) [Num. 18] +205
Junior Dos Santos (10-1) [Num. 6] -340 vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (11-4) [Num. 13] +260 
Cheick Kongo (14-6-1) [Num. 25] -500 vs. Paul Buentello (25-11) +325
James Irvin (14-5-1) -135 vs. Alessio Sakara (14-7) [Num. 20] +105
Preliminary Bouts:
Clay Guida (25-11) -500 vs. Shannon Gugerty (12-5) +300
Vladimir Matyushenko (23-4) -200 vs. Eliot Marshall (8-2) +160
John Howard (13-4) -200 vs. Daniel Roberts (9-0) +160
Brendan Schaub (5-1) -240 vs. Chase Gormley (6-1) +190
Mike Pierce (9-3) -500 vs. Julio Paulino (17-2) +300
Jason Brilz (17-2-1) -155 vs. Eric Schafer (13-4-2) +125
Duane Ludwig (19-10) -155 vs. Darren Elkins (11-1) +125
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From: Oddessa on the UG -
“its been all Kongo support so far… I thought Paul did enough to beat Struve and he is alot better than the odds indicate in this matchup…”
I thought Paul did enough to beat Struve
………………really?
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com
by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 17, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
finally
I’ve been waiting for BE to put these lines up. Ive got a friend in Vegas who’s gonna throw down $50-$100 on a 3 or 4 fight parlay. i’m thinking it will probably involve Dos Santos and Bones but i’d like to find 2 close fights or underdogs with good value to try to make some good money.
Any fights stick out as good value in your eyes?
People tend to get all excited about big underdogs, but I personally would put a SMALL amount on Vera (before the odds close down to +190ish). I like a decent play on Daniel Roberts, Brilz seems like a steal at -155 to me, and Sakara interests me just based on Irvin’s layoff + his having to cut to 185.
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com
by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 17, 2010 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
what I meant about the big underdogs is that just because you see +(big number) doesn’t mean you should just put big money on those guys “just because.” That shit can work occasionally and if you’re just doing play money betting at MMA Playground, go nuts. However, gambling real money that way is not a way to get sustainable success. I’d stay away from a play like Buentello on this card…you’d have to think that he wins the fight about 25% of the time for it to have the correct type of value…which doesn’t seem realistic to me
But a line like Vera’s requires you to think that there is around a 33% rate of Vera being able to win, which in my mind is right around correct so I think the value exists to make it worth a play.
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com
by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 17, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Is it just me, or do the lines for the top three fights seem unreasonably lopsided? I would expect Machida or Shogun to be -265 favorites against Vera, but Bones? I would expect all three lines to swing a bit towards Vera, Gonzaga & Buentello by fight time.
by Velcro on Mar 17, 2010 6:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It's a matter of popularity
the MMA bettor/fan is far more likely to go for Jones than Vera. It’s not truly a reflection of the competitiveness of the fight.
I got Vera, Gonzaga, and Kongo in a parlay on MMA Playground. I understand why Bones and Dos Santos are favored but the lines seem out of whack.
Using Playground as a reference point for odds is always odd. If for no other reason than that place is just “underdog central.” I’d say 75% of the people on there would never make the bets they do using real money.
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com
by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 17, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
boy are they larding up the undercard
with contractual obligation fights or what?
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Gonzaga and Vera
These guys should be slight underdogs in their fight, but Vera+190 and Gonzaga+250 is way too good to pass up. I put equal amount on both and will be happy to hit 1/2.
by DraMMA on Mar 17, 2010 6:55 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
You can get Buentello for +365 on Pinnacle. That seems like a good bet. I’ve got Cheick Kongo, but he seems a little overpriced.
Just wondering, why does the site use Bodog’s lines? They always seem to have the biggest differential (-500/+325?) in their odds.
I, personally, only use
Best Fight Odds since it lets me see the biggest variety of odds.
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com
by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 17, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Matchbook. It is an exchange, so the lines get down to within 10 closer to the fight for the big ones (Vera +216 Jones -230 right now). They get down to 1 on football, etc.. They do take a 1% (or so) cut from the winner as well, but still a better deal.
Gugerty at +300 is tempting...
Jack Bauer could get off the Lost island in 24 hours.
by timetosaygoodbye on Mar 17, 2010 7:54 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, I like Guida but he really is one dimensional with so chance of actually finishing a fight.
by Roll for Life on Mar 18, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
So what's been up with the Bloody Elbow betting game.
No more?
If not, I guess I gotta join a new team.
the guy running it moved on i think: so its still running but no one has taken over the posting role.
Eugene joined the military.
New Orleans Saints - 2010 Super Bowl Champions. Unbelievable. Who Dat.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Mar 18, 2010 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I've been doing fairly well with my random "value" round robins...
Got Vera/Gonzaga/Buentello/Bang/Sakara in a 10 separate 2 man parlays.
I think Jones has the fight, but it’s hard to argue that value.
I may be the only person around that thinks Gonzaga takes this fight, I thought the same about Yvel and got proved wrong. If he wins this one, I’ll probably be a believer.
Buentello is so close to value on this one, Kongo is a great striker to be sure but Buentello is game even if he doesn’t excel at anything. Kongo is coming off a trouncing, while Buentello basically is coming off a decent showing/warm up type fight. Kongo should definite win, but I think Buentello has enough of a chance to make it value.
Bang, nuff said.
Sakara is fairly good, and Irwin hasn’t been completely healthy in years. I know he’s good when healthy, but big lay off + weight cut + health issue + decent opponent = value in my opinion.
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