Good article Leland. However, don’t you think it’s possible that UFC 111 outdraws UFC 112 due to several factors (advertising with Primetime plus proven draws, as well as 112 being on delay) and that this outcome really wouldn’t be that negative of a sign?

1) I think at least a few PPV’s may take a hit based on how many PPV’s there are. If you are a UFC, WWE, and big boxing fight fan. Then there are 10 PPV’s to order between now and the end of May. That is about 500 if you order them all(600 in HD). Even if you take out WWE there are still 7 UFC,WEC, and big boxing PPV’s.

2) UFC on Versus will do poorly as well. Partially because Versus is still off Direc TV and partially because while hardcore fans are salvating at Jones/Vera and JDS/Gabe, they are not draws.

3)It will be interesting to see if WEC 48 flops on PPV with the low numbers on Versus if they would reconsider bringing in the main guys and making the WEC a feeder league.

I really wish the overseas cards were on a premium channel like HBO.

Dubai is 10 hours ahead of CST. 8pm start time there becomes 6 am here. I just don’t see how this can get good ppv numbers. As the Olympics has shown, if it isn’t live it isn’t going to be watched. This is the age of instant news that becomes almost unavoidable. Most people will probably know the results of 112 before they watch it.

Context it’s the thing that is missing whenever anyone talks about Zuffa’s numbers be it ratings or buyrates. People seem to have no clue what they mean and just throw out numbers left and right without having any real backing behind them. Which is why it’s hard to take these articles seriously when people don’t even know what they mean. I’m no expert but whenever I see numbers or figures thrown around without any context it’s really hard to have a real conversation when people don’t know what they are talking about.

as the sport gets more mainstream zuffa will realize that casual sports fans dont buy ppvs or pay for their sports only fight fans do and zuffa is creating too many ppv cards to keep doing this

the ratings on the ufc fight nights have been higher than ever and last seasons TUF had the highest numbers ever

now is the time for that network deal to come to play, get brock lesnar and UFC 116 on nbc and the spike in interest for mma will rise greatly

mainstream sports cannot succeed on a ppv method that is what helped killed boxing, if u run out of draws the sport will no longer succeed the way it once did) if zuffa wants to keep doing ppvs then they need to cut down on the shows if they want to keep expanding free tv is the way to go.

Leland,

As always, you deliver and excellent article. For me, you are the main reason to frequent Bloody Elbow.

I think the next card will come back to 650 + range also the abu dhabi one will as well..

Since the UFC will now be in theaters those numbers will need to be factored in as well from now.

UFC 111 I think will do very well as I believe that GSP is the second biggest draw in the UFC and with Mir and Carwin as the co main event will get alot of buys and I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up doing more then 750,000 buys.

I think UFC 112 will be hurt by the fact that it will be overseas. If the card was being held in North America I would guess it would do 600,000 to 700,000 buys, but with it being overseas and tape delayed I’m guessing it will end up with 350,000 to 450,000 buys.

UFC 113 with the Shogun/ Machida rematch and with Kimbo being added to the card should do well. Without Kimbo I would think they would do 400,000 to 450,000 so it should be interesting to see how well Kimbo draws on ppv.

UFC 114 falls on the holiday weekend in May and last years card I believe drew very well with Evans vs Machida and Hughes vs Serra and with this years card featuring Evans vs Rampage and Griffen vs Lil Nog and having both Deigo Sanchez and Micheal Bisping fighting on the card should be able to do as well if not better then last year.

UFC 115 is interesting as most hardcore fans have no interest in Chuck vs Tito 3 but with them both coaching this seasons TUF and will both their past fights doing big ppv buys and the fact the both get alot of main stream coverage should generate a ppv buy north of 600,000.

And finally with UFC 116 being headlined by a returning Lesnar and with James Toney possibly making his UFC debut on the card this card should do the biggest number of all. I think out of the three possible challengers for Lesnar that a rubber match with Frank Mir will draw the most buys. They will also generate ppv buys from people intrigued to see how James Toney will do that normally wouldn’t buy the card. I think that a fight between Toney and Rich Franklin could be a good match up with Toney getting to fight a former champion how likes to stand up and doesn’t have a strong wrestling background.

 It also doesn’t hurt thats its on holiday weekend as past cards on holiday weekends have shown to draw large numbers and none have had a big of headliner such as Brock Lesnar on the card. This card should do more then a million ppv buys but won’t beat UFC 100’s numbers.

300,000 buys and Zuffa still makes a ton of cash. We have had the big PPV guys (Brock, GSP, Penn) on the sideline for awhile. If they do 20 shows a year at 350,000 average buy rate, that is a lot of cheddar.

Zuffa will stay the king of MMA til someone does more shows and makes more money. Right now, there isn’t a second place. Maybe I took you out of context.

The thing to remember is that the UFC still makes money on 300k PPV buys. While I think White believes a little too much in the power of the UFC brand (show it and they will watch, even if it’s two B level fighters carrying the card) its hard to argue against it if they’re making money on these events.

Also it’s important to note that the UFC has been making inroads into new territories that will produce larger world wide buys down the road if the sport truly takes root in places like Australia and Abu Dhabi. I think Zuffa realizes that they can only “milk” the US and Canadian markets for so long and maintain their rocket like trajectory.

One thing Zuffa absolutely needs to stop doing is these rash of shows they do. Sometimes they’ll go a month, maybe slightly longer with no shows whatsoever. Then it’s a Fight Night. Four days later, a PPV. Then two weeks later ANOTHER PPV. And then you sometimes fit in some type of special fight night or a WEC in there as well. So you end up with like…four shows, all from the same company, in about the span of a month.

Here’s the perfect example.

UFC on Versus – March 21st
UFC 111 – March 27th
UFN 21 – March 31st
UFC 112 – April 10th
UFN 22 – April 17th

Five shows in one month. WHY DO THIS? One of those shows is going to take a hit, if only for sheer economic reasons. It’s a bad practice to force your own fans to pick and choose what PPV to buy.

3 years ago my wife was working and making good money. Paying for one or two events a month was no big deal. Now her hours have been cut back, and I’m essentially the sole supporter of our family. Do I spend $50 or $100 a month on UFC, or do I buy my two small children the things they need? I may love MMA, but until the economy improves and my wife’s making more money, I’ll be reading the fight results online and waiting for the PPV rebroadcasts on free tv. Or I’ll get together with a number of my friends who are in the same boat and we’ll all chip in to watch it at one house.

The “official” unemployment rate where I live is hovering around 14%. In reality it’s closer to 20%. People are upside down on their mortgages. Homes are in foreclosure. Yet the UFC is partying like it’s 2004. If the UFC wants to pay my mortgage every month, I’ll be happy to party with them.